Projected Line: San Francisco by 7 points
I expect San Francisco to finally reach the SuperBowl, after a very disappointing loss in last year's Conference Championship against the NY Giants. Colin Kaepernick was amazing last week against the Packers and the truth is that I fully expect both Kaepernick and the 49ers's running backs to have a big game today against a Falcons's run defense that allowed 4.8 rushing yards per carry during the regular season (#29 in the league). But not only Kaepernick is running well with the football, as he is also passing well the ball, especially to Michael Crabtree, Atlanta's defense struggled against Cam Newton during the regular season and they also got pounded in last week's game against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks during the second half, when Wilson starting to throw the football more, therefore I really believe a fired up San Francisco's offense will have a big game today against a Falcons's defense that has never impressed this season.
Matt Ryan finally won a playoff game last week against the Seahawks, but his performance was clearly aided by Michael Turner's surprisingly good performance that helped the team's offense in being more well-balanced than usual. After being #29 in the league in rushing yards per carry during the regular season, Michael Turner led the Falcons to a decent game on this area against the Seahawks. However, it is important to note that Seattle was #23 on rushing yards allowed per carry during the regular season, while San Francisco was #3 on that stat! Also Turner had a week off to rest prior to last week's game, something that won't happen for this game, therefore I really expect Atlanta's running game to go back into obscurity this week. So, Atlanta's passing game will have to carry the team's offense on its own and even though they were able to do that for most of the regular season, a team like San Francisco won't allow them to do a lot today. The 49ers's pass defense was #2 in the league during the regular season in passing yards allowed per pass attempt, they have linebackers with quality to stop Tony Gonzalez and their secondary is also good enough to limit Atlanta's receivers. Besides that, Atlanta's offensive line was prone to some scalps during the regular season and San Francisco's fired up defensive line will be ready to put pressure in Matt Ryan and force him to commit some errors throughout the game.
I believe San Francisco is by far a better team than Atlanta, besides the fact that I expect them to be hungrier than the Falcons, considering how they lost last season's Conference Championship. We don't see a lot of times a road team being so favored on a Conference Championship game, but we don't get to see a lot of times a matchup favoring one team so much at this stage of the playoffs neither. I expect a big win for San Francisco and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 301 San Francisco 49ers (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Conference Championship - 303 Baltimore Ravens @ 304 New England Patriots
Projected Line: New England by 12 points
Baltimore made a massive effort at Denver last week by beating their conference's #1 seed in double overtime. It was a game played under very low temperatures and on altitude, plus considering how the Ravens is in most areas a veteran team, they will be playing today's game on a very poor spot. Tom Brady may have lost Rob Gronkowski last week, but he has so many options that I don't expect Baltimore's defense to be able to do a great job against the high potent Patriots's offense. We are not talking about a top Ravens's defense anymore, we are talking about a Ravens's defense that is a top 10 defense at best on a very poor spot this week. New England has good options on both the passing and the running game and they should have no problems in putting points on the scoreboard against a tired Ravens defense.
So, it will be up to Baltimore's offense to make this game close. Joe Flacco had a good performance at Denver with some big passes, but New England's pass defense has certainly improved with Aqib Talib, so I believe Flacco will struggle a bit today. This will be especially true because he will get little support from the running game. This is due to the fact that the Patriots's run defense has been surprisingly very good this season and they ended the regular season by being #6 on rushing yards allowed per carry! Therefore, I don't expect Ray Rice to be a factor on this game and with that, Joe Flacco will have all pressure on his shoulders and I don't believe he will be able to handle that today against an improved Patriots's pass defense.
I believe New England's offense will dominate a tired and only-decent Ravens's defense today, while Baltimore's offense will struggle in keeping their team close on the scoreboard against a New England's defense that is much better than they were last season. I expect an easy win for New England today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 304 New England Patriots (-7,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
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