NBA Free Premium Play 01/22: Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Orlando  at Detroit

NBA - 503 Orlando Magic @ 504 Detroit Pistons Projected Line: 198 points Not even with an 18-4 early lead, Orlando was able to beat Dallas at home last Sunday. The Mavericks quickly recovered, while shooting 58% FG and dishing 18 assists during the first half, in an impressive effort from Dallas, but also a sign of some terrible defensive from Orlando, especially on transitions. The Magic weren't able to get any stops when they needed one and this has been their story over their last 15 games. On the other hand, Detroit is coming from a good home win against Boston, where they pounded the Celtics down low and on transitions. There are no doubts that Orlando's offense has in Detroit a good matchup for them. The Magic are 2-0 this season against Detroit and the numbers support this domination. Orlando is a dangerous offensive team when they are healthy and with Jameer Nelson at a good level, the Magic are #9 on overall offense with 0.80 PPP (points per possession), but on their last 10 games, the numbers goes up to 0.96 PPP! They have good numbers on post ups, cuts and especially transitions. This has nothing to do with the team that was little effective at the start of the season! Detroit's defense is a good matchup for them because the Pistons are a poor pick and roll ball handler defense (#23 in the league, while allowing 0.83 PPP) and this gives the Magic a offensive matchup on this contest. On the other hand, Orlando's defense has stopped defending on transitions. They were a top team at the start of the season, but they are now just #21 with 1.17 PPP for the season, while allowing 1.31 PPP over their last 10 games! Detroit's offense has been improving on this area and it's only necessary to see how they torched the Celtics on their last game. Detroit will also have an edge on pick and rolls, especially when Will Bynum is on the court with his great combinations with Andre Drummond, besides the fact that Greg Monroe will have a clear edge down low over Orlando's poor interior defense. I see both teams having clear offensive edges tonight, therefore I expect this contest to be a high scoring one. So, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker