MLB Premium Play 06/29: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners

MLB - 979 Chicago Cubs @ 980 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs A. Harang)

Seattle will start Aaron Harang tonight, who is being super inconsistent. He is coming from a start against Oakland, where he was only able to pitch for five innings, but where he limited damage with three runs allowed. Before that, he had allowed four runs (one earned) at LA against the Angels, even though he allowed eleven hits in that game! On the previous game, he had dominated Houston with a 10/0 K/BB ratio! Still, his lack of consistency makes him good fade material when he is involved on a pitchers-duel against a talented SP like Jeff Samardzija. 

Samardzija wasn't sharp against Houston, but a letdown was inevitable given his workload on his previous start, where he threw 112 pitchers or more on his previous four starts! Samardzija threw "just" 92 pitches against the Astros and with five days of rest between games, he will be ready to roll tonight. With both offenses being similar according to my rankings and with the Cubs having a clear SP edge in here, I believe the Cubs will pick up a good road team tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 979 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ J. Samardzija) @ -101 / 1.99 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/29: Cincinnati Reds @ Texas Rangers

MLB - 977 Cincinnati Reds @ 978 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: M. Leake vs N. Tepesch)

Texas will start Nick Tepesch tonight, who started the season well but without a great stuff, but he is now in fade alert mode! June is being by far his worst month of the season with 4.79 FIP and 4.29 xFIP and even on his last outing at St Louis where he pitched well, his advanced numbers were still not good with 5.53 FIP and 4.98 xFIP! Tepesch has horrible problems with LH batters with .307 BA and .369 wOBA allowed, while having a 5.28 FIP and 4.02 xFIP against them! This is why Cincinnati will start the following lineup tonight, with six batters hitting on the left side!

1. Shin-Soo Choo (L) CF

2. Zack Cozart (R) SS

3. Joey Votto (L) 1B

4. Brandon Phillips (R) 2B

5. Jay Bruce (L) RF

6. Xavier Paul (L) DH

7. Jack Hannahan (L) 3B

8. Devin Mesoraco (R) C

9. Derrick Robinson (S) LF

The Reds will start Mike Leake and he held the Dbacks to just two runs and four hits in eight innings last Saturday. Leake had already been great against Pittsburgh, a team that is currently red hot. Leake is yet to face the Rangers, so he will have the surprise factor working for him and with both offenses being at a similar level, I have to see value in Cincinnati, as they clearly have a SP edge on tonight's matchup. Therefore, I'll be taking the Reds in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 977 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ M. Leake) @ +100 / 2.00 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 06/29: Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 971 Detroit Tigers @ 972 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: J. Verlander vs C. Archer)

Justin Verlander will start for Detroit tonight and his season isn't being very good, especially in comparison to his performances on the previous seasons. However, he faced four top offenses (Boston, Baltimore, Cleveland, Baltimore again) on his last five games, so his schedule isn't being easy at all. Tampa Bay's offense has been struggling as of late with just one game on his last ten where they hit better than .300 BA! With Evan Longoria out tonight, things will get even tougher for the Rays, so I expect Verlander to dominate in here.

The Rays will be starting Chris Archer tonight, who has been also having a tough schedule by facing the Yankees on the road, the Red Sox on the road, then Boston and Baltimore at home and Cleveland on the road! His problem have been the walks and of course, the high pitch counts. This will be very tough for him, as Detroit is a top team in both BB% and K%, so they will wait for Archer to make some errors and walk some batters. With Verlander dominating on the other side, I expect the Tigers to pick up an easy win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ J. Verlander) @ -137 / 1.73 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/29: San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

MLB - 955 San Francisco Giants @ 956 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: M. Cain vs J. De La Rosa)

San Francisco couldn't make Jhoulys Chacin struggle yesterday with just four runs and with their run scored being against the bullpen. The Giants will try to bounce back today with Matt Cain, who has been pitching well as of late with 2.72 FIP and 3.13 xFIP! He had just two bad starts over his last 10 starts, with one of them being exactly at Colorado, where he allowed three homeruns. As Cain is a flyball pitcher, this detail is an important one in games played in Colorado, but it looks like the humidity in Colorado will be very low and with the wind being low as well, with the same thing happening with temperatures. Therefore, Cain should be helped with the weather and have a nice outing today.

On the other hand, Jorge De La Rosa will start for the Rockies today and he has been pitching well lately, even though the 3+3+3 walks on his last three outings are certainly a reason for concern. Also the fact that he faced Washington twice on the last three games helped him, as the Nationals are the worst team in the league on hitting versus LH pitchers! De La Rosa faced also the Blue Jays during this stretch of games, a team that is also just #25 in the league versus LH pitchers! Therefore, I believe he is coming overrated for today's game. He had two starts against San Francisco earlier on the season and he struggled in both games, with five and three runs allowed. One of the reasons why De La Rosa struggled was because he isn't a good pitcher versus RH hitters with .306 wOBA, 3.77 FIP and 4.17 xFIP allowed to them. The Giants' lineup consists mostly of RH batters, so they should be able to pound De La Rosa today and get a nice bounce back win for the Giants in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ M. Cain) @ -101 / 1.99 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/29: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves

MLB - 953 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 954 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: I. Kennedy vs T. Hudson)

Ian Kennedy returns today after getting suspended by 10 games for the brawl against San Diego. I don't know if this forced stop was good for him. He was struggling in June, with a 5.59 FIP and 4.24 xFIP, and as he is a flyball pitcher, he needs to be careful with homeruns and this was one of the main reasons for his struggles, as he allowed at least one homerun in all of his last five starts. Kennedy will face the Braves today, whose roster has great numbers against him: .288 BA and .830 OPS in 59 AB's!

Atlanta will start Tim Hudson today and they lost the last four games where Hudson was in the mount. However, he was competent in all those games! On his last outing at Milwaukee, he allowed just two runs in six innings. Hudson is particularly good against RH batters with a 2.95 FIP and 2.81 xFIP, but he struggles a bit against LH batters with 4.37 FIP and 4.48 xFIP. Arizona normally has four LH batters in the lineup, but they haven't been hitting well as of late: Parra .603 OPS, Montero .748 OPS, Kubel .669 OPS and Gregorius .548 OPS! Only Montero has been good lately, so Hudson should have a good outing today, allowing his team to pick up an easy win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Atlanta Braves RL -1 (w/ T. Hudson) @ +100 / 2.00 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Card 06/28

MLB - 911 Philadelphia Phillies @ 912 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lannan vs C. Capuano)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 912 Los Angeles Dodgers RL -1 (w/ C. Capuano) @ -114 / 1.88 on 5Dimes

MLB - 917 Detroit Tigers @ 918 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs A. Colome)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ M. Scherzer) @ -136 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

MLB - 925 Cincinnati Reds @ 926 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Cueto vs M. Perez)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 925 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ J. Cueto) @ +108 / 2.08 on 5Dimes

MLB - 927 St Louis Cardinals @ 928 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers. S. Miller vs B. Colon)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ S. Miller) @ +105 / 2.05 on 5Dimes

MLB - 929 Chicago Cubs @ 930 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: T. Wood vs H. Iwakuma)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 930 Seattle Mariners RL -1 (w/ H. Iwakuma) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/27: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

MLB - 965 Kansas City Royals @ 966 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Guthrie vs S. Deduno)

Jeremy Guthrie will start for the Royals tonight and he got completely pounded on his last start, where he allowed six runs on just 2.1 innings at home against the White Sox. His command has been plain horrible lately (1/3, 3/3, 0/3 and 4/3 K/BB on his last four games), while having a 6.93 FIP and 6.95 xFIP in June! Guthrie had two starts against Minnesota and he had worse advanced numbers than his ERA, something that tells us that he was lucky in both outings. With him struggling so much right now, Minnesota should be able to pound him in here.

Minnesota will start Samuel Deduno, who had a nice outing at Cleveland, but got "betrayed" by the Twins' bullpen. After allowing two baserunners to start the 7th inning, Deduno turned things over to the bullpen which proceeded to add fuel to the fire by allowing both to score. He has been constantly giving quality outings to his team and with a 2.76 FIP and 3.64 xFIP in June, he is definitely pitching quite well right now. Deduno has a problem with walking batters, but the Royals are just #27 on BB% with 6.7% and a brutal 5% over the last week, so Deduno won't have problems with this tonight. With the Twins having a clear SP edge in here, besides a matchup edge on hitting, as Kansas City has been very poor this season versus RH pitchers, I expect Minnesota to pick up a comfortable win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ S. Deduno) @ -129 / 1.78 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/27: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB - 955 Philadelphia Phillies @ 956 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Pettibone vs Z. Greinke)

The Dodgers swept San Francisco on a 3-game series and their 4-2 win yesterday was easier than it looks at first right. They outhit the Giants by 12-5, with the Dodgers having a 4-11 RISP! The LA team is currently hitting very well and their spot is better than Philadelphia's as well. The Dodgers are on a home-home series spot, while the Phillies traveled from San Diego and even though that isn't a big trip, they played a 13 innings game last night!

The Phillies are starting Jonathan Pettibone tonight, even though he is struggling with a back injury. His 5.68 ERA on his last five starts also aren't impressive. On a 4-days rest spot, I expect him to struggle big time tonight against a confident Dodgers' lineup. Pettibone's command has been terrible with 1/1, 1/1, 4/2 and 1/2 K/BB ratios, with no strikeout punch, so this is another reason for him to struggle tonight against the Dodgers. The LA team is starting Zach Greinke tonight, who held the Padres to just one run on eight innings last Saturday. He got revenge over San Diego and he has been pitching well since returning from the DL. If we exclude four games where he struggles (@Pittsburgh, @Colorado, @LA Angels, @Milwaukee), he has been pitching well and it's important to note that these four games were against good offenses! Greinke will now face the Phillies on a tough spot for them, so I expect him to dominate in here. With the Dodgers pounding Pettibone, I expect the LA team to pick up an easy home win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 Los Angeles Dodgers RL -1 (w/ Z. Greinke) @ -133 / 1.75 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/27: New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies

MLB - 967 New York Mets @ 968 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs T. Chatwood)

This is a make up game, where the Mets will on a tough mental spot, as they will return tomorrow to host Washington, while the Rockies will continue their home stretch tomorrow with a series against San Francisco. The NY team will start Jeremy Hefner, who is coming from four games where he allowed two or less runs per game. However, three of these four games were against subpar offensive teams such as Philadelphia, the Cubs and Washington. On his last start, he struggled with 10 hits allowed on six innings, but he got away with that. Now at Colorado, he won't get away with such performance. The Rockies will start Tyler Chatwood, who has been phenomenal at home with 2.22 ERA, 2.56 FIP and 3.39 xFIP! The Mets' offense has been horrible and they will be without their best hitter David Wright today. Therefore, I expect Chatwood to dominate, while the Rockies put Hefner in trouble, so I believe will pick up an easy home win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Colorado Rockies RL -1 (w/ T. Chatwood) @ -134 / 1.75 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/26: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers

MLB - 913 Los Angeles Angels @ 914 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hanson vs J. Alvarez)

This is a tremendous revenge + bounce back game for Detroit in here. They are 0-7 on their last 7 games against the Angels and they got humiliated yesterday, with the LA team scoring a season high of runs. So, the Tigers will come for tonight's game fired up and they have a great chance to start the game quite well with Jose Alvarez pitching for them. He is coming from two spot starts already in June, with him being competent in both of them with two and one runs allowed. But what I liked was the fact that he did that against Cleveland and Boston, two of the strongest offenses in the league! Alvarez is just giving sequence to his good numbers at the Minors and he will have a surprise factor tonight favoring him, as the Angels don't know him. Besides that, the LA team is just #25 in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers!

On the other hand, the Angels will start Tommy Hanson, who had a good run lately, but he gets pounded everytime he faces a top team. His last start was a disaster, with him allowing seven runs on two innings against Seattle, while he pitched just five innings at Boston, where he had to throw 114 pitches: a 22.8 P/IP! I believe the fired up Tigers will crush them today since the start of the game. I expect the Tigers to come fired up tonight and take an early lead in the game, so I'll take Detroit on the first five innings of the game in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 914 Detroit Tigers ML FIRST 5 INNINGS @ -144 / 1.69 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/26: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 901 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 902 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs J. Zimmermann)

Washington will have a huge mismatch on SP favoring them in here. Wade Miley may have started the season well, but he has been struggling lately, while being homerun prone, with 1, 2, 1, 0 and 3 homeruns allowed on his last five starts. His strikeout numbers also don't impress me and he is really struggling right now. I believe he is on a clear fade spot in here, as he is coming for tonight's game with just 4 days of rest and with 105 pitches thrown on his last start. The last two times he threw +100 pitchers on a game, he allowed five runs against Atlanta and three runs against St Louis on the following outings.

On the other hand, Washington is starting Jordan Zimmermann on 5 days rest. He is coming from a great bounce back outing against Colorado, as he allowed just one run to the Rockies (9/1 K/BB ratio), after struggling at Cleveland. He had three good starts against Arizona in 2011 and with Miley getting pounded today, I believe Zimmermann will also do a good job in here, allowing the Nationals to pick up an easy win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Washington Nationals RL -1 (w/ J. Zimmermann) @ -107 / 1.94 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/25: Minnesota Twins @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 967 Minnesota Twins @ 968 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: K. Correia vs J. Fernandez)

This isn't a great spor for Miami, as after a West Coast road trip, they are now returning home to face the Twins. They will face Kevin Correia, who had three great starts lately, with a combined of 19/1 K/BB ratio, while allowing just two, one and three runs! Miami doesn't have a lot of power on its lineup, so this can be a good matchup for Correia tonight. On the other hand, Jose Fernandez will start for the Marlins. He is coming from back to back outings with more than 100 pitchers, something unusual for a pitcher. Fernandez won't have the surprise factor on his side tonight, as he has already faced the Twins this season, where he allowed four runs in five innings, while having a 2/2 K/BB ratio. Minnesota's lineup is red hot by hitting better than .300 BA in five of their last six games. With Correia pitching well, I see Minnesota having great value as underdogs in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 967 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ K. Correia) @ +109 / 2.09 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/25: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 965 Toronto Blue Jays @ 966 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs M. Moore)

We have a clear mismatch on pitching in here favoring Toronto. Mark Buehrle is dominating, even though he faced tough opponents on his last three outings: Texas (x2) and Colorado! He is currently super confident. After a 5.41 FIP in April, he posted a 4.50 FIP in May and he is currently having a 3.41 FIP in June. On the other hand, Matt Moore will start for the Rays. His command problems continue, but he got away with that on his last outing, where he posted a win at NY against the Yankees. However, he had a 4/3 K/BB ratio with 99 pitches on just 6.1 innings! This says a lot about his problems. Moore faced Toronto earlier on the season and he had command problems once again with 2/4 K/BB, where he posted a 3.60 ERA, but his advanced stats were much tougher: 7.25 FIP and 6.60 xFIP! The difference is that the Blue Jays are now hitting much better than they were last month, so Toronto have great value as underdogs tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Canadian team in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 965 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ M. Buehrle) @ +125 / 2.25 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/25: Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees

MLB - 959 Texas Rangers @ 960 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Darvish vs H. Kuroda)

The Yankees are currently the worst hitting team in the league with .0571 OPS over the last two weeks! They will now face Texas, who is coming from a road sweep at St Louis, where they impressed especially last Sunday night against Adam Wainwright. They have won their last 5 games, while the Yankees are struggling and on damage control. The Rangers will start Yu Darvish, who had 6 days of rest prior to this game. He had two starts this season with +6 days of rest and his stats were incredible: .080 BA, .232 OPS and 0.00 ERA! With him being extra rested, I expect him to completely dominate the struggling Yankees' lineup. The NY team is just #24 on K% with 22% and 7.3% BB%, so Darvish should really cruise in here.

The Yankees are starting Hiroki Kuroda, who had a win last Wednesday against the Dodgers, where he allowed two runs on 6.2 innings. He allowed just two, two and four runs on his last three outings, while his numbers against RH batters are phenomenal with 2.98 FIP and 3.45 xFIP! However, Texas' lineup for tonight has been released and its batting order is weird:

1. Ian Kinsler (R) 2B

2. Elvis Andrus (R) SS

3. Nelson Cruz (R) RF

4. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B

5. A.J. Pierzynski (L) C

6. Lance Berkman (S) DH

7. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B

8. David Murphy (L) LF

9. Leonys Martin (L) CF

Four righties in a row and then, everybody hitting on the left side! I believe the Rangers will be able to cause some problems to Kuroda here and there, something that should be good enough for them to pick up the win in here, as Darvish is very likely to dominate the Yankees on a great spot for him.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Texas Rangers ML (w/ Y. Darvish) @ -117 / 1.85 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/25: Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 957 Philadelphia Phillies @ 958 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: K. Kendrick vs J. Marquis)

The Phillies is starting Kyle Kendrick tonight, who limited the Nationals on his last outing to just one run and two hits on 7.2 innings. On the other side, the Padres will be starting Jason Marquis, who hasn't allowed more than three runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. On his last outing, he faced the Dodgers on a tough spot for them and allowed just two runs on six innings. Marquis's advanced numbers are much worse than his ERA and he has been struggling versus LH batters this season by allowing .347 wOBA, 6.17 FIP and 4.92 xFIP! The Phillies have a decent number of lefties on their lineup, so they should be able to put Marquis on a struggling position tonight.

Kyle Kendrick has been pitching well lately, if we exclude a disaster at Colorado, where he allowed seven runs on 4.1 innings. He had a great outing against Washington and I have no doubts that Kendrick is a better pitcher than Marquis, with a 3.79 FIP and 3.55 xFIP! Kendrick had 5 days of rest prior to tonight's game and he should be able to help Philadelphia in picking up a nice win as an underdog tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ K. Kendrick) @ +109 / 2.09 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/25: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB - 955 San Francisco Giants @ 956 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: M. Kickham vs S. Fife)

San Francisco will start Michael Kickham, who had a spot start on May 28 at Oakland and he couldn't get out of the second inning! He has posted a 4.81 ERA at Triple-A Fresno this season, so he's not impressive at all. The Dodgers are a great team on hitting versus LH pitchers, so this is a great spot for them to pound Kickham tonight. On the other hand, the LA Dodgers will start Stephen Fife, who has been pitching great lately. He took a no-decision last Thursday at San Diego, where he allowed just one earned run on six innings. Fife is posting a 3.25 ERA and 27/8 K/BB on 27.2 innings over five starts this year. This will be Fife's fifth start in a row and he has been very solid in all outings. I expect him to have a decent outing tonight and with the Dodgers pounding Kickham, I'll be taking the LA team in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (w/ S. Fife) @ -126 / 1.79 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 06/23: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 979 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 980 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: C. Morton vs J. Blanton)

The Angels will start Joe Blanton today, who may have a 1-10 record this season, but he is pitching much better than that record shows. He had a 11/2 K/BB ratio on his last start and previous to that, he had 6/1 K/BB at Boston, 11/0 vs Houston and 5/0 at LA against the Dodgers. That's a 33/3 K/BB ratio on his last four starts! The Pirates are one of the teams that struggles the most with strikeouts and they are indeed #30 in the league on K% with 25.7% over the past 30 days! Therefore, I expect Blanton to use his great command to dominate the Pirates.

On the other hand, Charlie Morton will start for Pittsburgh today. He pitched well at Cincinnati, but prior to that he got pounded by the Giants. I believe that the fact that the slumping Josh Hamilton not playing today will only help the Angels, whose potent lineup should be too much for Morton. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the LA team in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 980 Los Angeles Angels RL -1 (w/ J. Blanton) @ -114 / 1.88 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/23: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB - 959 Cincinnati Reds @ 960 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: M. Latos vs R. Delgado)

Cincinnati will start Mat Latos today and he is fresh for today, as he threw only 88 pitches on his last start. His last start wasn't impressive at first sight with a 5.40 ERA, but the advanced stats tell another story with 1.24 FIP and 2.09 xFIP! He struggled due to a very high .333 BABIP! On the other hand, Arizona will start Randall Delgado, who will make his second start for the Dbacks. His first start was against Miami at home and he looked good with two runs allowed in seven innings, while having a 6/0 K/BB ratio! However, it's obvious that Cincinnati's lineup will be a much tougher task than the Marlins were. Over the last seven days, Miami is #29 in the league with .599 OPS, while Cincinnati is much better with .696 OPS! The Reds are currently 0-2 on this series and so, considering the good SP edge they have in here, I expect them to bounce back today and pick up the win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ M. Latos) @ -139 / 1.72 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/23: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

MLB - 955 Atlanta Braves @ 956 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: P. Maholm vs A. Figaro)

Atlanta's offense has been terrible as of late with .562 OPS and 22.5 K% over the last 7 days! They suffered two shutouts in a row, even though they faced subpar pitchers like Wily Peralta and Donovan Hand. The Braves will now be facing Alfredo Figaro, who has been showing good command with 3/2, 4/0, 6/0 and 4/1 K/BB ratios! He is an extreme groundball pitcher and against a struggling Atlanta, I expect him to have a nice outing today.

On the other hand, the Braves will be starting Paul Maholm, who is being much worse on the road than at home this season. He had three favorable matchups on his last three outings: vs NYM (#23 vs LHP) and before that, he played at San Diego and at LA against the Dodgers, in two pitchers-friendly parks. Things will be much tougher for him at Milwaukee, a team that is #8 in the league on hitting against LH pitchers. On Maholm's last three starts at Milwaukee, he allowed six, four and three earned runs, so things should be tough for Maholm today. With the Braves' lineup and Maholm struggling today, I believe Milwaukee has great value as a home underdog today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ A. Figaro) @ +128 / 2.28 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 06/23: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

MLB - 967 Baltimore Orioles @ 968 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: F. Garcia vs J. Johnson)

Toronto is on a complete state of grace right now: good pitching, huge bullpen and of course a powerful lineups that keeps doing damage. The Orioles will start Freddy Garcia today and he has been struggling lately, with 2, 2 and 4 homeruns allowed on his last three starts! Garcia faced the Blue Jays earlier on the season and he was a bit lucky with just two runs allowed, even though he had just one strikeout! I don't expect him to be so lucky once again today.

On the other hand, Josh Johnson has been pitching well since he came back from the DL, even though he faced three tough opponents: @San Francisco, Texas and Colorado! Baltimore is also a tough opponent, but Johnson will give Toronto a nice SP edge in here, while the Blue Jays' bullpen and lineup is also playing better than Baltimore right now. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Blue Jays today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Toronto Blue Jays RL -1 (w/ J. Johnson) @ -113 / 1.89 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/23: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians

MLB - 963 Minnesota Twins @ 964 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: P. Hernandez vs C. Carrasco)

Minnesota will be starting Pedro Hernandez today, who posted a 5.85 ERA in eight appearances for Minnesota earlier this season and he didn't look any better at Triple-A Rochester with a 4.50 ERA. On the other hand, Cleveland will start Carlos Carrasco, who had two spot starts and struggling in both. However, he faced the Yankees and Detroit on the road in those games. On his last start against Kansas City, Carrasco dominated with one run allowed in 7.1 innings, while having a 4/1 K/BB ratio.

I believe Carrasco is a nice pitcher and he won't have a lot of problems against the Twins' lineup today. On the other hand, Pedro Hernandez is yet to show that he can be a SP on the MLB right now and so, on a matchup against a top hitting team versus LH pitchers (#3 with .759 OPS), I expect the Indians to pick up an easy win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 964 Cleveland Indians RL -1 (w/ C. Carrasco) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Card 06/22

MLB - 917 Chicago White Sox @ 918 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Quintana vs W. Davis)

NOTE: No writeup for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917/918 Over 8.5 (w/ J. Quintana & W. Davis) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB - 925 Houston Astros @ 926 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs T. Wood)

NOTE: Writeup to be added soon

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 925/926 Over 9 (w/ B. Norris & T. Wood) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

MLB - 909 Cincinnati Reds @ 910 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: M. Leake vs P. Corbin)

I believe Mike Leake is being way overrated for this contest. He may have a 2.64 ERA, but his advanced stats tell another story: 3.49 FIP, 3.75 xFIP and 3.82 SIERA! He had an easy schedule on his last four starts by facing Pittsburgh twice, the Cubs and St Louis. The Cardinals were the only good team he faced during this span of games and he struggled with three runs and six hits allowed on five innings. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is #20 vs RHP and the Cubs are #22, while Arizona is #9 with .743 OPS! To make things worse for Leake tonight, Arizona's roster is hitting .357 BA and .915 OPS on 56 AB's against Leake and so, I expect Leake to struggle tonight.

Arizona will start Patrick Corbin tonight, who allowed two runs on eight innings against Miami last Monday. He allowed only two hits on that outing, while looking quite impressive once again with a 7/1 K/BB ratio. Corbin is a very competent pitcher, who allows a small number of hits and walks few batters. Cincinnati's offense uses to be a good hitting team vs LH pitchers, but they are just hitting .206 BA vs LHP on their last 10 games. I believe we have a good pitching edge favoring Arizona tonight, while their offense has woken up yesterday and seems ready to pound Leake tonight. Therefore, I'll take the Dbacks in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ P. Corbin) @ -119 / 1.84 on 5Dimes

MLB - 921 Boston Red Sox @ 922 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: A. Webster vs M. Scherzer)

On this series between the two best offensive teams in the league, pitchers can't really struggle or they get pounded big time. Boston will start Allen Webster tonight and he struggled against Minnesota and Kansas City (#18 and #28 vs RH pitchers) by allowing eight and three runs respectively. He also allowed two home runs on each game. Now against Detroit, the Tigers won't give him any chance and they will pound Webster tonight.

On the other hand, Max Scherzer will start for the Tigers and he improved to 10-0 this season with a win against the Orioles last Monday, where he allowed just one run in six innings. He is currently posting a 3.08 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, while having 116 strikeouts in 96.1 innings! The Red Sox are a tough opponent, but Scherzer seems ready to handle them with some comfort and certainly on a much easier way than Webster will handle the Tigers' lineup. Therefore, I see Detroit picking up an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 922 Detroit Tigers RL -1 (w/ M. Scherzer) @ -136 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/21: Texas Rangers @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 977 Texas Rangers @ 978 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: D. Holland vs T. Lyons)

This is the first game between these two teams since the 2011 World Series, so it's normal that Texas is coming fired up for the first game of the series. They are coming from a 3-1 series win over Oakland that has allowed them to come closer from the top of the AL West, so they are very confident right now as well. I believe the Rangers will have a clear SP edge tonight. Tyler Lyons will start for the Cardinals and he hasn't been able to surprise his opponents anymore, with 6, 4 and 4 runs allowed on his last three outings, including a very problematic last game against the lowly Marlins. 

On the other hand, Derek Holland will start for Texas and he will benefit from the fact that St Louis's lineup is far from the same production this season against LH pitchers that they have been having against RH pitchers! The Cardinals are just #23 in the league versus LH pitchers this season with just .669 OPS! Holland is coming from a poor outing at home against Toronto, where his flyball style was punished by Toronto's powerful lineup who is currently red hot and had two homeruns in that game. Before that, Holland had also struggled at Cleveland, but the Indians are #3 in the league versus LH pitchers this season with .763 OPS, so their last two outings were tough matchups for him, while tonight's matchup should be fairly easier for him.

Considering the fact that Lyons is currently struggling and that Holland has a nice matchup tonight, I believe Texas will take advantage of this considerable SP edge to pick up a very important road win for their ego tonight. I'm taking the Rangers tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 977 Texas Rangers ML (w/ D. Holland) @ -103 / 1.97 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 06/21: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians

MLB - 969 Minnesota Twins @ 970 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: S. Deduno vs S. Kazmir)

Samuel Deduno will start for Minnesota tonight and he has been surprisingly good with 2, 2, 0 and 1 runs allowed on his last four outings, while not walking more than three batters on each game! His last start was against Detroit and he was able to have a quality start against a team that had pounded him last season. He had 5 days of rest for tonight's game, so he has a good spot for tonight's game against the Indians, whose hitting has cooled off massively lately. 

Cleveland will start Scott Kazmir, who allowed five runs on 2.2 innings against the Nationals last Saturday. His last three starts were bad in almost everything: bad P/IP count, homeruns allowed on each start, walked 4, 2 and 2 batters, while being very hittable as well. Kazmir has already faced Minnesota this season and he had a nice outing, but it was on early May, when he was in good form. Minnesota's lineup is now coming from a nice home sweep where they showed good offense, with them hitting above .300 BA in all three contests. The Twins are hitting .339 BA against LH pitchers on their last 10 games and they are coming from pounding the left-handed John Danks and Chris Sale, so I'm taking Minnesota for the upset tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ S. Deduno) @ +119 / 2.19 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/21: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

MLB - 965 Baltimore Orioles @ 966 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hammel vs R. Dickey)

Toronto is now 35-36 on the standings and this comeback has been the result of very good pitching (bullpen included), while their offense has been solid as usual. They will face Jason Hammel, who is on an extra rest spot, but due to illness. Hammel's last starts were against good offenses, but where he showed poor command with 1/2, 3/2 and 0/3 K/BB ratios, while allowing homeruns on every of these outings. Now against a confident Blue Rays' lineup, I expect Toronto to pound him tonight.

R.A. Dickey will start for Toronto tonight and he has been inconsistent with 1, 7, 0, 6, 6, 2, 2, 2 and 7 runs allowed on his last nine starts. Dickey allowed just one run against the Rangers on his last outing last Saturday and he is now on a revenge spot against the Orioles, as he has struggled against Baltimore twice earlier on the season. However, it's important to note that Dickey had 5 days of rest for tonight's game and he has a 3.14 ERA and .581 OPS on this kind of spot, while he has 5.80 ERA and .853 OPS with 4 days of rest. Those two outings against the Orioles were on 4 day rest spots, so this might be the key in here. Anyway, Toronto is now playing much better than they were earlier on the season and so, I expect them to pick up a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ R. Dickey) @ -117 / 1.86 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/21: Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 959 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 960 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: C. Kershaw vs C. Richard)

The LA Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw and he is back into domination mode with one earned run allowed on seven innings on each of his last two starts. He is being incredibly good especially against LH batters with a 0.92 FIP! This is a revenge game for him against the Padres and he lost against San Diego on June 2, even though he allowed just two runs in that outing.  I expect Kershaw to have another dominating performance tonight against the Padres.

San Diego will start Clayton Richard tonight, who is coming from his best start of the season, where he allowed just one run on seven hits against Arizona. Richard had just one strike out in that game, but his groundballs worked well. However, it's important to note that Arizona is just #21 on hitting vs LH pitchers this season, while the Dodgers are #14 and with a tendency to improve with Hanley Ramirez back. Even though Richard is coming from a nice outing, he has been one of the worst SP's of the league this season and so, we can't trust him.

The SP edge favoring the Dodgers in here is huge and so, I expect the Dodgers' lineup to be a bit more clutch than they were yesterday, getting a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (w/ C. Kershaw) @ -139 / 1.72 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/21: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB - 957 Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: J. Cueto vs W. Miley)

Arizona is on a nice spot, as they had a day off yesterday, while Cincinnati played an early game yesterday and then had to travel to Arizona. The Reds are starting Johnny Cueto, who returned from the DL and then had some problems against the Mets, with three runs allowed in five innings, while showing some rust. But since then, he has dominated both the Pirates and the Brewers with dominant performances with a combined of just one run allowed on these two outings! The Dbacks' lineup has been struggling as of late, so I expect Cueto to have another good outing tonight.

On the other hand, Wade Miley will start for Arizona and he is currently on fade alert mode. He started the season very well with 3.25 FIP in April, but he has since regressed with 5.32 FIP in May and 4.61 FIP in June. On his last outing, he allowed six runs on six innings against San Diego. Miley has been struggling against RH batters and this is especially worrying against the Reds' lineup who is full of righties plus the left-handed top hitters Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. So, it's no surprise that Cincinnati is #8 in the league versus LH pitchers this season. Cincinnati has a clear SP edge tonight and the Reds' lineup is a patient one and they will give a lot of work to Miley, who has been struggling in striking out batters. Therefore, I expect Cincinnati to take advantage of their edges in here to pick up a nice road win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ J. Cueto) @ -108 / 1.93 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/21: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

MLB - 953 New York Mets @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs C. Hamels)

The Phillies are coming Cole Hamels, who has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this season. He has a 2-10 record on decisions, but he isn't pitching that terribly. He is coming from an outing at Colorado, where he allowed just three runs on seven innings, but as usual this season, he had no run support and lost another decision. If we look at his monthly FIP numbers, they are actually quite good: 4.33 in April; 3.99 in May; 2.65 in June! Now against a Mets' lineup that is #28 in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers, I expect Hamels to have a good outing in here, just like the one he had earlier on the season against the NY team, where he allowed just one run in six innings.

The Mets will be starting Jeremy Hefner, who has allowed just one run on each of his last three outings, including a home game against the Cardinals. Just like Hamels, Hefner has been improving month after month this season. He started with a horrible 6.16 FIP in April, but then he recovered with a 3.94 FIP in May and he is now posting a 3.44 FIP in June! He faced the Phillies back in April and no wonder he got crushed with five runs allowed in three innings. However, Hefner's main problem this season has been facing LH batters (6.42 FIP and 5.17 xFIP) and the Phillies will have six players hitting on the left side on their lineup tonight, including a returning Chase Utley. 

Considering how Hamels is now clearly pitching at a good level and Hefner's struggles with left handed batters, I expect Philadelphia to pick up a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1 (w/ C. Hamels) @ -137 / 1.73 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 06/20: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

NBA - 713 San Antonio Spurs @ 714 Miami Heat 

Projected Line: 180 points

***TOP PLAY***

This was the best game of this series and perhaps one of the best NBA Finals games of all time! For the first time in three games, both teams used the same lineups from the previous game, so there was no surprise factor this time, something that was decisive when Miami started Mike Miller on Game 4 and when San Antonio started Manu Ginobili on Game 5. However, unlike what happened on the previous two games, Game 6 wasn't a fast paced game, as the pace was actually more similar to the first two games of the series. Nevertheless, with just six minutes played, the score was already 18-16!

San Antonio had shot 60% FG on Game 5, so Miami's main focus for this game was on defense. Chris Bosh mentioned that Danny Green wouldn't be as wide open as previously on the series and that really happened, as Green struggled to find good spots and ended the game with just 1-7 FG! Lebron James's defensive assignment was to defend Tony Parker, one of the main reasons why Parker ended with an awful 6-23 FG, but that made Lebron to be far from the basket. This change of approach and defensive positioning allowed Tim Duncan to have more space down low and he just crushed the Heat during the first half with 25 points - half of the Spurs' total points! The problem is that Duncan is 37 years old and this is why he had his best regular season in years while playing just 30 minutes per game. So, this is why he couldn't sustain all the workload that he had during the first half and faded away greatly on the second half: he didn't score a single point during the fourth quarter and overtime! Duncan and Parker were so exhausted that Popovich was forced to bench them both at the start of the fourth quarter.

With Lebron being a defensive monster against Parker, the Spurs needed a second playmaker that would be Ginobili, but he struggled heavily with eight turnovers. The trade off of getting good looks on the outside versus getting more space down low worked for the Spurs on this contest, as despite having just 5-18 3pts (series low), the Spurs scored 60 points in the paint (series high)!  On Miami's side, Lebron James had a monster fourth quarter by carrying the team on his own, but he ran out of gas at the end of game, where he ended up having some help from San Antonio's poor tactical choices and Ray Allen. Once again, the Heat's offensive flow was great with Dwyane Wade on the bench, so no wonder that Wade ended the game with a huge negative team -15 points when he was on the floor. On a lineup with Lebron James and four shooters, it's much more difficult to stop the Heat because they can't overhelp the strongside to stop James's drives to the basket or Lebron will find the open guy on the weakside.

The pace factor on this series have been the following:

G1 84.19

G2 82.71

G3 85.32

G4 92.22

G5 93.39

G6 84.14

The pace of Game 6 was way slower than on the two previous games even though both teams used small lineups. In my opinion, this was due to the fact that both teams committed to not allowing transition points to their opponents and especially because both teams are incredibly tired right now. Note that the best offensive moment of the game was right on the first six minutes of the game when they scored a combined of 34 points! Unlike the previous games, we reached a moment where both teams just can't surprise the opponent and so, both teams know what to expect from their opponent, something that only creates problems to the offensive execution of both teams. Tony Parker is hobbled and being defended by Lebron James. Tim Duncan simply can't take over the game for 40 minutes, as he faded badly in the second half of the game, while Manu Ginobili is the key on this matchup, but he is being inconsistent as well. With the extra effort from Game 6, I believe San Antonio will have offensive problems on this game.

However, Miami also saw Lebron James playing 50 minutes on Game 6 and it's almost impossible for him to have a monster efficient offensive game tonight, as he'll have to spend a ton of energy while defending Tony Parker. Dwyane Wade is also banged up and he missed the start of the third quarter on Game 6 because of a swelling on his repaired left knee. So, Miami isn't on a good spot for tonight's game. If we combine that to the fact that the pace of tonight's game will be slow and similar to Game 6's pace, the tiredness of both teams and the fact that they won't have new tricks on the bag, we will have a slow paced contest in here and the offensive struggles of both teams will turn this game into a low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Triple Dime Play: my NBA Finals Game of the Year!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

MLB Premium Card 06/20

MLB - 913 Chicago White Sox @ 914 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Danks vs S. Diamond)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 914 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ S. Diamond) @ -118 / 1.85 on Bovada

MLB - 919 Tampa Bay Rays @ 920 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: M. Moore vs A. Pettitte)

Tampa Bay is starting Matt Moore tonight, who after a great start of the season is now regressing big time. His advanced stats weren't supporting his great outings at the start of the season, so it was a question of time until he started regressing and that has happened on his last three starts, where he has allowed a combined of 19 runs on a 12.1 innings span! His 11/11 K/BB on these three starts combined also don't impress anybody. Even though he is a LH pitcher, he is struggling more against LH batters than RH batters this season, it isn't a surprise that the Yankees are using a lineup tonight full of left-handed players:

1. Brett Gardner (L) CF

2. Jayson Nix (R) 3B

3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B

4. Travis Hafner (L) DH

5. Vernon Wells (R) LF

6. Ichiro Suzuki (L) RF

7. Lyle Overbay (L) 1B

8. Chris Stewart (R) C

9. Reid Brignac (L) SS

On the other hand, the Yankees are starting Andy Pettitte, who struggled against the Angels on his last outing with four runs allowed in seven innings. Even with these struggles on his last start, he is being consistent lately with a FIP always below 4.00 on his last five outings. The Rays' lineup is known for pounding LH pitchers, but they are just hitting .238 BA vs LHP on their last 10 games, so I believe the veteran Pettitte will be able to do some good damage control in here. With Moore getting pounded once again, I expect the Yankees to pick up a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 920 New York Yankees ML (w/ A. Pettitte) @ -107 / 1.93 on Bovada

NBA 2013 Finals: Miami x San Antonio Game 6 Recap

NBA 2013 Finals: Miami x San Antonio Game 6 Recap

This was the best game of this series and perhaps one of the best NBA Finals games of all time! For the first time in three games, both teams used the same lineups from the previous game, so there was no surprise factor this time, something that was decisive when Miami started Mike Miller on Game 4 and when San Antonio started Manu Ginobili on Game 5. However, unlike what happened on the previous two games, Game 6 wasn't a fast paced game, as the pace was actually more similar to the first two games of the series. Nevertheless, with just six minutes played, the score was already 18-16!

San Antonio had shot 60% FG on Game 5, so Miami's main focus for this game was on defense. Chris Bosh mentioned that Danny Green wouldn't be as wide open as previously on the series and that really happened, as Green struggled to find good spots and ended the game with just 1-7 FG! Lebron James's defensive assignment was to defend Tony Parker, one of the main reasons why Parker ended with an awful 6-23 FG, but that made Lebron to be far from the basket. This change of approach and defensive positioning allowed Tim Duncan to have more space down low and he just crushed the Heat during the first half with 25 points - half of the Spurs' total points! The problem is that Duncan is 37 years old and this is why he had his best regular season in years while playing just 30 minutes per game. So, this is why he couldn't sustain all the workload that he had during the first half and faded away greatly on the second half: he didn't score a single point during the fourth quarter and overtime! Duncan and Parker were so exhausted that Popovich was forced to bench them both at the start of the fourth quarter.

With Lebron being a defensive monster against Parker, the Spurs needed a second playmaker that would be Ginobili, but he struggled heavily with eight turnovers. The trade off of getting good looks on the outside versus getting more space down low worked for the Spurs on this contest, as despite having just 5-18 3pts (series low), the Spurs scored 60 points in the paint (series high)!  On Miami's side, Lebron James had a monster fourth quarter by carrying the team on his own, but he ran out of gas at the end of game, where he ended up having some help from San Antonio's poor tactical choices and Ray Allen. Once again, the Heat's offensive flow was great with Dwyane Wade on the bench, so no wonder that Wade ended the game with a huge negative team -15 points when he was on the floor. On a lineup with Lebron James and four shooters, it's much more difficult to stop the Heat because they can't overhelp the strongside to stop James's drives to the basket or Lebron will find the open guy on the weakside.

MLB Premium Card 06/19

MLB - 953 San Diego Padres @ 954 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: E. Stults vs M. Bumgarner)

This will be a matchup between two LH pitchers. If San Diego has been hitting well against LH pitchers lately (.289 BA on L10 games), what can we say about San Francisco who is hitting .347 BA against LH pitchers on their last 10 games? The Giants are starting Madison Bumgarner today, who is coming from a total domination on an outing at Atlanta, where he didn't allow a single run in seven innings, while having a 10/1 K/BB ratio. His 0.63, 2.05 and 2.05 FIP on his last three starts shows his current excellent form. Bumgarner has played against San Diego earlier on the season and he allowed just two runs in six innings, while having an excellent 10/0 K/BB ratio. Therefore, I believe he will give sequence to his good form and have another good outing today.

San Diego is starting Eric Stults, who is coming from a great outing against Arizona on his last start, where he allowed just one run and two hits on a complete game. In fact, his last four starts have been great with 3/1, 4/0, 3/0 and 12/0 K/BB ratios, while always going deep in the games with 9.0, 7.0, 7.0 and 8.0 innings played. However, Stults struggled against the Giants on two starts earlier on the season, with five runs allowed on each game. San Francisco's roster is hitting .340 BA and .912 OPS against him on 106 AB's and considering their current hitting form against LH pitchers, I believe they will make Stults struggle once again today. With Bumgarner dominating the Padres at the same time, I expect San Francisco to pick up a comfortable win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 San Francisco Giants RL -1 (w/ M. Bumgarner) @ +100 / 2.00 on 5Dimes

MLB - 965 Kansas City Royals @ 966 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers:  L. Mendonza vs J. Masterson)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Cleveland Indians RL-1 (w/ J. Masterson) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB - 977 Colorado Rockies @ 978 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers:  J. Nicasio vs M. Buehrle)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 978 Toronto Blue Jays RL-1 (w/ M. Buehrle) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes




MLB - 979 Milwaukee Brewers @ 980 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers:  K. Lohse vs E. Bedard)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 979 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ K. Lohse) @ -117 / 1.85 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 06/18: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

NBA - 711 San Antonio Spurs @ 712 Miami Heat 

Projected Line: 195 points | Miami by 3 points

If the Spurs were more concerned with avoiding turnovers at the start of this series in order to turn the Finals into a half court battle, this completely stopped happened on Game 5, where San Antonio became a run and gun team, where they committed a series high of 19 turnovers, but compensated that with an offensive execution. In some "wired" TV segments, Coach Popovich kept saying "don't stop the pace" and "pace, pace, pace". So, it's not a surprise that we had the following sequence of pace in these Finals: 84.19; 82.71; 85.32; 92.22; 93.39!

In order to respond to Miami's small ball, the Spurs responded with a small ball lineup as well, with Manu Ginobili starting for the first time this season! These finals are being amazing when it comes to coach, with both Coach Spoelstra and Coach Popovich to adjust very well after a loss without having to change their structure. Remember last season when Coach Scott Brooks refused to change the Thunder's lineup when it was visible that Oklahoma City couldn't play big against Miami's small lineup?

Game 5 had a bunch of runs made by both teams, but the two important runs were performed by San Antonio: 15-2 at the end of the 1st quarter, transforming a 17-17 tie into a 32-19 score; and a 19-1 run between the 3rd and the 4th quarter, when the score was 75-74 in favor of the Spurs.

San Antonio naturally changed its defensive style, not giving any space to Dwyane Wade and Lebron James, something that gave space to the role players to have good numbers and that indeed happened. Wade and James combined a total of 18 assists, with Miami shooting 11-23 3pts, after a 4-12 3pts performance on Game 4! But the X factor of Game 5 was the fact that both Wade and Lebron couldn't have good individual games, with both of them missing some weird easy shots near the basket.

On the other hand, the Spurs' starting lineup combined to shoot 39-61 (64%) FG! Some of the shots made were contested and incredible ones, but the Spurs also missed some wide open shots as well! In theory, the Spurs by losing the turnover battle (19 vs 15) and getting outrebounded (grabbed just 45% of the total boards) would lose clearly this game, but that did't happen because they shot 66.4 eFG%!

I believe that we will finally have a close game down the stretch on this series, something that hasn't happened since Game 1, as the potential adjustment that Coach Spoelstra will perform today won't have the impact that other adjustments performed by Miami and San Antonio had in previous games of these Finals. I knew that San Antonio by playing small ball on Game 5 would be competitive via offense and this is why I took the Over on that game. However, I also took Miami because I thought that San Antonio's small ball would be far from the level that Miami's small ball possesses, but I was wrong as San Antonio used an almost kamikaze style by wanting to push the pace in every single play. I believe things will be similar tonight, as this is San Antonio's best chance to win the title and so, we can expect the Spurs to be super aggressive tonight. Manu Ginobili was awesome on Game 5 and the Spurs basically play with two PG's at the same time with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. On the first half, Manu allowed Parker to "rest" a bit by not having to be so aggressive, while Danny Green keeps making treys non-stop and even Tim Duncan had some glimpses of dominance. I know that Chris Bosh mentioned that Danny Green "won't be open tonight", but the problem is making the right close outs on him. Miami will have to abdicate on double covering Parker and  Manu as soon as they attack off the dribble and go to the rim.

On the other side, it has been mentioned that Mike Miller will leave the lineup, while Chris Anderson will return to the rotation. But the key in my opinion will be to know if Udonis Haslem or Shane Battier will be starters tonight. It has been seen that the Heat's big lineup isn't efficient against San Antonio, so I expect Battier to start tonight. Miami couldn't have a great offensive performance on Game 5 due to Dwyane Wade's and Lebron James's misses on the down low, even though they shared the ball with their teammates extremely well. With both teams playing small ball and especially with the efficient that they've showed while doing that, the current totals line is set way too low and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. The story of this series tells us that Miami will bounce back big time tonight, but even though I admit the Heat may win tonight, I expect this contest to be close, therefore I see good value on the Spurs as 6.5 points underdogs tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 San Antonio Spurs (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 06/18: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 923 Seattle Mariners @ 924 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: J. Bonderman vs J. Blanton)

The Angels are coming from a game last night where they had a season high 21 hits. Tonight they will face Jeremy Bonderman, who will make his fourth start this season. He started with a poor outing at Minnesota with seven runs allowed in 4.2 innings, but then he had nice back to back outings. The key in here is to realize that his last two starts were at home, something that helped him a lot, while he faced the Yankees and the Astros, two teams that are #29 and #30 in the league on OPS over the last 14 days with .611 and .607 respectively! Now against the Angels, who are #2 on this rank with .824 OPS over the last two weeks, things will be completely different. Therefore, I expect the red hot Angels' lineup to pound Bonderman tonight and so, I'll be taking the LA team to go Over their team total on tonight's game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 924 Los Angeles Angels Team Total Over 4.5 (w/ J. Bonderman) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/18: Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers

MLB - 919 Oakland Athletics @ 920 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Parker vs Y. Darvish)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Texas was needing a game like yesterday's where they won via offensive explosion with eight runs and twelve hits! This was their first game on their last seven were they had a BA higher than .300, something that explains why they had lost their previous six games! Jarrod Parker will start for the Athletics tonight and he is coming from four outings where he has allowed, 3, 2, 0 and 2 runs! Parker's lack of strike out punch with 6.18 K/9 and 1.78 K/BB is a clear problem for him, but he has been limiting the damage quite well. However, it's important to note that two of these starts were against the White Sox and another was against the Yankees. If we look at the OPS ranks over the last 30 days, the Yankees are #29 in the league with .622, while the White Sox aren't much better with .635 OPS, so he has basically faced two of the three worst defenses in the league over the last month on three of his last four outings! Parker had an outing at Texas on 05/22, where he had a 3.86 ERA but with a 5.77 FIP, something that shows us that he didn't pitch very well in that game. The Rangers recovered some of their offensive mojo yesterday and I believe Parker will struggle more tonight than he did on his last four games.

The Rangers will start Yu Darvish and he has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league this season. His last three outings were no exception and it's important to mention that he faced Toronto on the road and at home, a red hot team that is #7 on OPS over the last 30 days! Oakland's patient lineup will make Darvish work hard tonight, but he is at a completely superior level in comparison with Parker, who is primed for a huge letdown tonight. I expect an easy win for Texas tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 920 Texas Rangers RL -1 (w/ Y. Darvish) @ -121 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/18: Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 907 Chicago Cubs @ 908 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs A. Wainwright)

The Cubs showed yesterday that their offense is yesterday poor and not even a nice outing by Travis Wood allowed the Cubs to win yesterday's game. The lack of run support isn't a surprise for Jeff Samardzija, as even though he has a 3.46 ERA this season, his record is just 3-7! He is coming from his worst start of the season against Cincinnati, but curiously he didn't lose that decision, even though he allowed five runs and ten hits on six innings, for a season high 116 pitches! This won't be a nice spot for him, as it will be his second straight start with just four days of rest between games and he is also coming from high pitch count games with 112 and 116 pitches! Samardzija has one of the best K/9 ratios in the league with 10.29, but the Cardinals are one of the teams in the league that gets strike out the least with just 18.0% K% (#6). Therefore, I believe St Louis will put Samardzija in trouble today.

Adam Wainwright will start for the Cardinals and he is simply the best pitcher of the league this season with an incredible 1.78 FIP! Unlike Samardzija, Wainwright's last outing was on an early game where he threw just 95 pitches and having in account the Cubs' offensive struggles (#27 on OPS over the last 14 days), I believe Wainwright will comfortable dominating another opponent tonight. The Cardinals have a SP edge, a better offense and their SP has also a better spot for tonight, so I expect an easy win for them tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Cardinals on the runline in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 St Louis Cardinals RL -1.5 (w/ A. Wainwright) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker