NBA - 745 Indiana Pacers @ 746 Atlanta Hawks
Play #1
The Pacers are really struggling in this series and today’s contest is clearly a “must win” game for them. Right now, it is more likely for the Pacers to beat the Hawks via their offense rather than their defense as absurd it might sound.
Roy Hibbert is lost on the court! The Hawks’ offense w/ their big men shooting the ball from the outside is taking advantage of Hibbert’s lack of mobility. IND’s coach Vogel has decided to change IND’s PNR coverage as he lost the confidence in his team… Obviously, the Pacers are not “prepared” to change their defensive system built in years in a few days, and suddenly, the best defensive team in the league simply doesn't know what to do on the defensive end! In the last game, ATL generated plenty of good outside looks. For some reason, they couldn’t hit those shots @ first half by shooting just 2-16 3pts. However, once those shots started falling, the Hawks killed IND’s defense w/ 59 points in the second half!
On the other end… coach Vogel most likely will give more minutes to Luis Scola and C.J. Watson as both players have been quite decent on the offensive end = good sign for the OVER. I expect IND to be super aggressive by attacking the rim and get a decent number of FT’s vs. undersized ATL's frontcourt! With Hibbert playing fewer minutes, the Pacers are playing a bit faster and so, my fair line for this is 190 points = proper edge for a play w/ OVER!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 745/746 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 747 San Antonio Spurs @ 748 Dallas Mavericks
Play #2
DAL’s head coach Rich Carlisle was fantastic in the first two games of the series, but especially in the last game, the Spurs really couldn’t play any worse.
First of all, we should understand that at the end of the third quarter, the Mavericks had scored 88 points while shooting 50.7% FG & 6-14 from 3pts (42.9% mark). However, the Spurs were even better offensively by shooting 56.5% FG & 8-14 from 3pts (57.1% mark), but still, they were trailing by 13 points!
Turnovers!!! SAS committed 21 TO’s in the first 3 quarters of the game and they were outrebounded as well – obviously, I have to give some props to DAL but really, the majority of those TO’s were the result of some incredible sloppy play from the Spurs! Turnovers & Rebounding is something really “easy” to fix, so I expect SAS to bounce back today in these two key areas.
In that game, everything went well for the Mavericks. They couldn’t miss mid range jumpers…Shawn Marion was hitting three pointers… B. Wright battled foul trouble, and so Carlisle was “forced” to play D. Blair and Blair was just tremendous w/ 3-6 FG for 8 points + 7 rebounds and 4 steals in just 14 minutes of action!
DAL played small ball and won the game… I expect SAS to be more “ready” for this contest while their biggest problem in G2 is pretty easy to fix and so, I’m taking the Spurs in here as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 747 San Antonio Spurs (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 749 Miami Heat @ 750 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #3 & #4
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Bobcats deserve a lot of credit for their performance in G2 but it was pretty clear that there is a huge gap between these two teams, especially w/ Al Jefferson struggling so badly physically.
It looked like the Heat was toying w/ CHA… after allowing CHA to be close the gap to just 4 points early in the 4th quarter, the Heat went in 10-0 run and held scoreless CHA by almost 4 minutes... Then, the Bobcats made their late comeback and eventually had the chance to tie the game.
Some notes from that game: 1) LeBron James is just “unguardable”; 2) MIA explored (and will explore today) Big Al’s complete lack of mobility on PNR’s; 3) CHA hit 2 buzzer beater shots in that game (end of 1st quarter ->0:00 Luke Ridnour makes 25-foot three point jumper & end of 2nd quarter -> 0:01 Kemba Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper); 4) CHA hit 43% from 3pts w/ Walker going 4-9 3pts (this won’t happen quite often) and finally, 5) MKG was the Bobcats’ leading scorer w/ 22 points!
For this contest, I expect the Heat to be more focused on the road. w/ Big Al banged up, CHA is primed for a natural offensive letdown after their surprising good offensive performance in G2, while MIA’s offense will get their points (as usual!) via Lebron James' brilliance & exploring Big Al's bad defense.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 749 Miami Heat (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 749/750 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
