Wednesday, January 16, 2013

NBA Premium Play 01/15: Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers


NBA - 511 Milwaukee Bucks @ 512 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: 210 points

After allowing almost 112 points during their six-game skid, the Lakers limited the Cavaliers to 93 points to 41.1% FG. Coach Mike D'Antoni credited the team's improvement on some individual performances:

“They were connected defensively,” D’Antoni said. “Then you can take individual efforts like Kobe (Bryant) on (Kyrie) Irving – his energy on the ball got them out of their patterns, and Steve (Nash) fighting guys off the boards and sacrificing his game to what’s better for the Lakers. The rest of the guys sprouted energy and we played hard.”

The truth is that Earl Clark defended well alongside Dwight Howard. Post practice, Howard stated Clark’s difference on the defensive end.

“One thing that Earl (Clark) helps with is his energy,” Howard said. “I know he’s going to be behind me or I know he’s going to get up and guard his man to do whatever he can to stop him from scoring. That makes it a lot easier for the other guys when you have two guys back protecting the paint and playing with energy.”

The Lakers improved their defense due to Kobe Bryant's bigger effort and the Howard/Clark duo that protects well the paint, much better than a banged up Pau Gasol. This is interesting against a team like Milwaukee, who doesn't have skilled frontcourt players and guards like Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, who will struggle on their penetrations against the Lakers's starting new frontcourt.

On the other side, Milwaukee's defense seems to be built to stop the Lakers's offense! The team from LA has a very high volume at the rim and 3pts shooting, but Milwaukee's defense is a top team on these two areas by being #5 on rim defense by allowing 61.6% FG and #5 on 3pts defense by allowing 33.3% to their opponents! In fact, the Bucks's defensive performance on these areas was incredible over their last five games by allowing just 59% FG at the rim and 26% 3pts! 

With the Lakers having a better mindset on their defense as well, I expect this game to become a surprisingly relatively low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 213 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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