Daily Message 02/27

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 326-267-9 ATS | +120.91 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 326-267-9 ATS | +55.43 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Atlanta (+3) LOSS

Over MEM/LAL 198 WIN

Dallas (-7) WIN

Under SAS/DET 210.5 Double Dime LOSS

Brooklyn (+2) Triple Dime LOSS

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a subpar day in which we went 2-3 ATS in our plays... We’ve lost our Triple Dime Play w/ the Nets by 42 points! Granted it was probably my worst play ever but I really can’t explain why the Nets were so bad. I’m yet to watch the game as I’ve watched live the game between the Clippers and the Rockets but I’ve already analyzed the game “by the numbers”:

The most “shocking” factor for me: After having 46.3% & 35.8% reb/rate% in the two previous contests, POR completely crushed the Nets last night w/ 61.1% reb/rate! This was a complete surprise for me, because LMA didn’t play and even Thomas Robinson was OUT as well, so basically, POR had in Robin Lopez their only “big player”. Coming off the bench, they had Victor Claver – a 6’9’’ forward who played @center last night! Still, POR grabbed 13 offensive rebounds while shooting 53.5% from the field!

I’ll watch some film of this contest today in order to prepare today’s game between the Nuggets and the Nets, but it will be hard for me to release a play in this contest b/c the Nets are a complete “mystery” for me.

Regarding the Rockets @ Clippers game… I have to say that besides an OKC healthy w/ Westbrook completely integrated in OKC’s system, I think that the Rockets are the second best team in the Western Conference (in the first 40 minutes of the game). With Asik coming off the bench, w/ the nice pick up of Jordan Hamilton who is a huge upgrade over Francisco Garcia, the Rockets have the proper depth and quality to be the best team in the West. However, there is a HUGE problem for them… Recurrently, their offensive execution down the stretch is way too stagnant and predictable. When crunch time arrives, all we have in HOU is ISO plays w/ James Harden or J. Lin…they don’t move the ball or feed properly Dwight Howard in the post. Last night, Harden & Lin went scoreless in the 4th quarter w/ a combined 0-6 FG vs. 1-1 FG from Howard and obviously, they lost the game. This is a bad sign for the playoffs…

Moving on for today, we have a card of 4 games to work w/ 2 TNT games! I don’t know if we’ll have any plays for tonight, as soon as one play is confirmed, I’ll put the daily package up. As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day! NOTE: Final Update will be released @6:15 PM EST!

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NBA Premium Card 02/26

NBA - 707 New Orleans Pelicans @ 708 Dallas Mavericks

Play #2

DAL offense is just killing every opponent that struggles to defend PNR’s… and guess what... the Pelicans are a subpar defensive team vs. PNR’s! Against the Knicks, DAL was simply incredible on the offensive end via PNR’s -> -> 7-19 FG for 0.95 PPP in PNR ball handler plays & 7-11 FG for 1.31 in PNR Roll Man plays! We can add the fact that they were able to hit 15-36 3pts shots even though Nowitzki went 0-5 3pts!

NO was completely torched by the Clippers especially on PNR’s so I don’t think that suddenly they will be able to slow down DAL’s offense.

On the other end, NO offense is “predictable” as they play w/ Aminu & Stiemsma @ starting lineup = offensively challenged players and so teams are focused only in stopping Davis, Roberts and Gordon. That will be the case tonight for the Mavericks and IMO, we should be dealing w/ Dallas being favored by 10 points!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Dallas Mavericks (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 709 Los Angeles Lakers @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies

Play #3

MEM had 3 days off to rest and prepare tonight’s contest... Mike Conley naturally has struggled a bit since he returned from an injury as he went 6-15 FG, 3-10 FG & 6-16 FG in those 3 games, so these 3 days off IMO will help him and the team to work some things, especially w/ their offensive chemistry.

Well, they will face tonight the Lakers…so this is a great matchup for them to be decent offensively as LAL is a terrible defensive rebounding team…their post up defense is really subpar while LAL’s guards won’t have “a chance” vs. Conley’s speed!

LAL’s offense relies heavily on PNR’s & transition plays…MEM’s defense is ranked just #25 defending PNR’s ball handler plays & #18 vs. transition… I think that we are dealing w/ a similar spot of our Over Play w/ IND vs. LAL! MEM will score “so easily” that they will relax a bit on the defensive end.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 713 Detroit Pistons @ 714 San Antonio Spurs

Play #4

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

In the first H2H game between these two teams, DET scored 109 points against the Spurs and I really don’t think that this will happen tonight….

It looks like K. Leonard will return tonight and so, SAS will receive their best perimeter defensive player… T. Parker is OUT and so, SAS will start w/ C. Joseph (a defensive specialist), D. Green & Leonard. In that game, DET had a “rare day” in which their guards were sharp offensively w/ Jennings shooting 8-18 FG + Stuckey 7-13 FG + Bynum 4-8 FG…this won’t happen many times (unfortunately for DET).

Also, Tiago Splitter didn’t play that game and Popovich decided to start w/ A. Baynes… obviously DET pounded SAS w/ 52 pts paint & 56.3% reb/rate%! Splitter will start tonight and we have another “factor” favoring SAS’s defense in this matchup.

On the other end, the fact that T. Parker is still OUT for this contest will “help” DET’s defense. Parker’s penetrations off the dribble would kill DET’s lack of speed of their “bigs”…

My fair line for this contest is 204/206 points and so, we have some great value w/ the Under IMO.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/26: Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics

Atlanta  at Boston

NBA - 703 Atlanta Hawks @ 704 Boston Celtics Play #1 ATL might be shorthanded right now, but they are playing hard and last night they could have defeated the Bulls if not some late TO’s (fortunately for us!). Obviously, ATL is being crushed by their opponents on the glass… they had only 46% reb/rate% vs. CHI while CHI’s frontcourt were great offensively w/ Boozer 8-14 FG, Noah 9-13 FG e Gibson 5-12 FG. Despite all the injuries, ATL’s offense has been pretty decent as their perimeter is producing at a decent level due to their great ball movement – ATL is shooting 44.5% from 3pts in L5 games! For this contest against the Celtics…the X factor IMO is that BOS don’t have the proper players and/or depth to pound ATL’s down low. BOS’s best post up player J. Sullinger is OUT for tonight…. Kelly Olynyk will miss the game as well and even Vitor Faverani is OUT! I really don’t think that B. Bass & K. Humphries are skilled enough on the post to torch the Hawks tonight… On the other end, BOS is a bit of shorthanded @ backcourt and this is where ATL’s really excels right now… R. Rondo isn’t playing @100% (especially on the defensive end) and my fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 game. BOS is in full “tanking mode” and they shouldn’t be favored in this contest IMO! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Atlanta Hawks (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 02/26

Daily Message 02/26:

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 326-267-9 ATS | +128.11 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 326-267-9 ATS | +60.03 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Over IND/LAL 206 WIN

Chicago (-2) WIN

Houston (-4) WIN

Over SAC/HOU 212.5 WIN

Daily Message: 

On my yesterday’s daily message, I've said that my “concern” in the immediate is to get a “better feeling” of some NBA teams. Because there were some trades being made @ trade deadline + some rotations changes in certain teams + and even w/ one coach being fired…we need some time to adjust properly.

Eventually, sooner or later we would be primed to crush the books, and fortunately for us, the adjustments’ made for yesterday cashed right away, as we SWEPT the board last night by going 4-0 ATS in our Plays.

Still, there is some work to be made for the near future, but we really needed and deserved a good day…

As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!

Moving on for today, we have a card of 10 games to work, so let's do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day! NOTE: Final Update will be released @6:15 PM EST!

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NBA Premium Card 02/25

NBA - 505 Los Angeles Lakers @ 506 Indiana Pacers

Play #1

All season long, I’ve been telling that this Pacers’ offense is a bit of “streaky”, and right now I think we are catching them w/ a good “mood”. This will be their fourth game after the all star break and the IND offense was great against the bad defensive teams of ATL & MIL by scoring 108 and 110 points in those games. They indeed struggled @MIN but note that IND was playing @b2b spot and for some reason, their offense is really struggling in those kinds of spots.

The Lakers’ interior defense won’t have a chance against IND powerful frontcourt… LAL’s reb/rate% in L10 games is just 44.3%, so we can also expect IND to grab a fair number of offensive rebounds that will lead to plenty of second chance points for IND.

LAL’s offense is now in a streak of 4 consecutive games scoring +100 points… It helps the fact that Pau Gasol & K. Kaman are healthy and playing some minutes because they have now some inside presence and obviously, they can spread better the floor w/ shooters.

I expect LAL to dictate the tempo of the game…IND will score so easily that they will “relax” a bit on the defense end, that’s why I like the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 507 Chicago Bulls @ 508 Atlanta Hawks

Play #2

It is confirmed that P. Millsap will miss tonight’s game and therefore, ATL is really shorthanded on the frontcourt! They have only E. Brand & M. Scott available right now…

That worked well in the last game against the Knicks as ATL explored in the fourth quarter for 39 points while their outside shooting was great w/ 16-31 3pts. However, note that we are talking about the Knicks – a team that really don’t want to score down low and have a terrible perimeter defense. Certainly, this isn’t the case of the Bulls… CHI will try to explore ATL’s lack of depth/quality on the frontcourt while their perimeter defense is way better vs. NYK.

In the last H2H between these two teams, CHI had the incredible mark of 65.6% rebound/rate% - to put it simple, despite shooting 50.6% FG vs. 43.8% from ATL, CHI still was able to grab 17 offensive boards vs. just 5 from ATL!!!

With CHI dominating the glass and scoring easily down low, I don’t think that ATL’s perimeter shooting will be enough for them to be competitive tonight and therefore, I’m taking the Bulls in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Chicago Bulls (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 513 Houston Rockets @ 514 Sacramento Kings

Play #3 & #4

This will be a fun game to watch between two offensive minded teams…

The biggest difference is that HOU w/ D. Howard dominating and with some depth w/ their second unit, I think that we are dealing w/ a true contender in the Western Conference.

SAC w/ D. Cousins back has scored 105 and 109 points in L2 games while their defense was pretty decent. However, note that they have faced a Celtics team that was playing without R. Rondo and last game @DEN, Ty Lawson didn’t play the game and so, SAC had the luxury to play against two teams without their pure point guards. That won’t happen tonight against HOU…

HOU reb/rate% in L5 games = impressive 55.8%! Their only “bad” defensive game was @GSW in a b2b spot… they are rested for tonight and so I expect this contest to be a pure “run and gun” w/ the Rockets simply crushing the Kings on their own game!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Houston Rockets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 212.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 02/25

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 322-267-9 ATS | +116.11 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 322-267-9 ATS | +56.03 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Milwaukee (-2.5) Double Dime WIN

Dallas (-3) LOSS

Daily Message: 

We were able to generate a small profit last night because even though we ended the night w/ 1-1 ATS, we cashed our Top Play with the Bucks easily crushing the 76ers.

We have been wildly inconsistent in the last 2/3 weeks…we had some good days but there were more bad days! As always, it is important for us to focus on the long term, because this is part of the process of a long NBA regular season - up and downs will happen quite often.

My concern right now is to have a "better feeling" of some teams and to make the proper adjustments. The trade deadline altered some teams, but also some coaches are now changing their rotations right now, and obviously, it's hard for me to make the right projections for the games. However, I'm pretty sure that once we have the "right feeling" of all teams, we will crush the books w/ a nice streak. Until then, I'm working hard in adjusting…watching film…and trying to deliver the best cards daily.

As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!

Moving on for today, we have a card of 7 games to work, so let's do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day! NOTE: Final Update will be released @6:15 PM EST!

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NBA Premium Card 02/24

NBA - 701 Milwaukee Bucks @ 702 Philadelphia 76ers

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The record might say otherwise, but the 76ers are the worst NBA team by some margin and I think that the Bucks will naturally win this contest.

I’ve watched the 76ers’ last game against the Mavericks, and even though they were playing against a DAL team w/ slow footed guards, PHI keeps struggling to hit outside shots (5-25 3pts). Sure, they were able to score 30 fast break points & 64 points in the paint but PHI don’t have the proper talent to excel playing at such frenetic pace.

MIL is coming from a “decent” game against the Pacers in the last game. I had a play w/ them against the Nuggets in a game where B. Knight was a late scratch and MIL really didn’t have a chance in that game. B. Knight returned against IND and he was great w/ 12-23 FG for 30 pts, 8 assists and 5 rebounds!

I expect B. Knight to have a considerable edge vs. slumping PHI rookie MCW while MIL‘s superior depth will be the X factor IMO! PHI is playing @ fastest pace in the league and they just don’t have the proper depth to sustain their level of play and MIL’s has a decent 2nd unit w/ Sessions, Antetokounmpo, Mayo & Henson, and therefore I’m taking the Bucks in here.    

NOTE: the play was upgraded @ Double Dime Play! B. Knight & N. Wolters were confirmed @ starting lineup. 

Pick: 3 units (Double Dime Play) on 701 Milwaukee Bucks (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 1 units (Double Dime Play) on 701 Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 New York Knicks

Play #2

DAL will play tonight their third game of their road trip vs. Eastern Conf. teams and in the first 2 contests they really crushed their opponents w/ their great ball movement – they had 39 and 31 assists in those two games!

It was a surprise for me that they were able to win the boards battle against a team like the Pistons, this was vital because DET shot almost 50% from the field. The Mavericks explored DET’s bad perimeter defense to crush them via Pick n Rolls: PNR BH 8-15 FG for 1.05 PPP & 10-13 FG for 1.43 PPP.

The good news for them is that tonight, DAL will face the WORST DEFENSIVE team in the league defending both PNR ball handler & PNR Roll Man…. Things won’t change for tonight because by playing w/ Felton + Prigioni + JR Smith + Melo…miracles won’t happen! NYK was completely torched in the last game by ATL’s Mike Scott – a “stretch” power forward! Well, the Mavericks have a guy named Dirk Nowitzki…

I expect NYK to score some points as well, but DAL has a superior bench and their level of fluidity on the offensive is way better than the Knicks.

NYK was able to win the first h2h @DAL early on the season w/ one of the key factors the fact that they were able to outrebound DAL w/ 55% reb/rate but that was the time when D. Blair was DAL’s starting center!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Dallas Mavericks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Card 02/23

NBA - 803 Chicago Bulls @ 804 Miami Heat

Play #1

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Chicago Bulls (+7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 805 Orlando Magic @ 806 Toronto Raptors

Play #2

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play, they're back tomorrow, thanks!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 806 Toronto Raptors (-10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 02/23

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 319-263-9 ATS | +119.31 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 319-263-9 ATS | +56.43 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Washington (-6) Triple Dime LOSS

Under ATL/NYK 202.5 Double Dime LOSS

Memphis (-2) LOSS

Sacramento (-8) LOSS

Daily Message: 

0-4 ATS last night... unfortunately, this won’t be the last time we have such a bad card, but the most frustrating part for me is that, I really don’t think we made horrible plays. We got beat by some minor details that made a huge difference at the end:

1)      After dominating against some favorable matchups, I expected a big offensive letdown from Al Jefferson against MEM’s interior defense.  “Big Al” really struggled last night by shooting just 2-13 FG for a total of 6 points and the Bobcats as a team shot just 36.6% FG! That would be enough for MEM to win the game, but CHA had the edge w/ rebounds, FT’s and TO’s…and that’s why they won the game;

2)      My Triple Dime Play w/ the Wizards was predicated w/ the fact that WAS’s frontcourt would dominate against NO’s shorthanded frontline and that really happened as Nene had 13-19 FG for 30 points + Gortat w/ 6-9 FG for 16 points & 10 rebounds…the problem was that WAS’s outside shooting was awful w/ 3-14 3pts (0-6 in the first half!). With A. Davis, Roberts & Eric Gordon on the court, NO was outscored by double digits points so, they were able to be competitive due to their bench... WTF?!

3)      The Under ATL/NYK play was another classic game where the game was primed for a relatively low scoring game, well below the total posted and suddenly… BOOM! ATL scored 39 points in the fourth quarter by going 10-17 FG, 6-9 3pts & 13-14 FT’s even though they had just 4 assists in the quarter

4)      Finally we had a game in which one team finished the game shooting 52.1% FG vs. 39.1% FG from their opponent and still, they couldn’t win easily the game. To make things even crueler, we lost the play w/ an insignificant bucket w/ 2 seconds to go…

That’s the NBA folks…

As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! 

Moving on for today, we have a card of 8 games to work w/ 2 early “ABC games”, so let's do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/22

NBA - 501 Memphis Grizzlies @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #1

The Bobcats are 3-0 in the L3 games, but last night they choked down the stretch vs. NO and almost lost the game.  Al Jefferson simply toyed w/ NO’s frontcourt especially @ first half but once NO adjusted defensively in the second half, CHA’s offense was stagnant and ended up shooting just 35% FG in the second half. “Big Al” is in a roll by scoring 32, 29 and 33 points in the L3 games!

However in this 3-games stretch, he has faced the inexperienced DET’s frontcourt twice and last night, his matchup was vs. Ajinca, Stiemsma and Jeff Withey…enough said! For tonight, I don’t think that Al Jefferson will be able to dominate down vs. MEM interior defense and so, CHA’s offense isn’t good enough to hang around against a “healthy” team like MEM.

MEM is coming from a great win vs. LAC in a game that sounded like between two elite teams. MEM crushed LAC down low w/ 60 points in the paint while their perimeter with Conley back is way more talented than CHA’s backcourt.

With Al Jefferson being well defended by Marc Gasol, CHA’s offense will struggle to score. CHA's defense has been decent but I expect Zach Randolph to dominate vs. McRoberts, while MEM’s second unit will have a considerable edge tonight as well vs. CHA’s unit that most likely will be without Gary Neal & Luke Ridnour.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Memphis Grizzlies (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 503 New Orleans Pelicans @ 504 Washington Wizards

Play #2

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

I’ve watched this afternoon the game between the Pelicans and the Bobcats, and I really didn’t like the way the Pelicans played in that game. CHA was able to won the game even though they shot just 38.8% FG! However, CHA completely dominated the boards w/ 57.5% reb/rate% while they a tremendous edge w/ FT’s as well: 36 vs. 11!

Their interior defense is just awful and Al Jefferson completely torched them early on the game. Eventually, NO packed the paint in the second half to slow down “Big Al” – which they were successful but they gave too many “space” on the outside for CHA’s shooters. Fortunately for them, CHA’s could hit a three pointer to save their lives (1-10 3pts in the second half) and the Pelicans were able to be competitive.

This won’t work tonight against the Wizards…

While I expect Nene Hilario & Marcin Gortat to score quite easily down low, the Pelicans really can’t pack the paint against WAS because we are talking about one of the best 3pts teams in the league! In L10 games, WAS is hitting 38.1% 3pts – ranked #6 in the league!

The biggest edge IMO for the Wizards tonight is related w/ the matchup between John Wall vs. B. Roberts/A. Rivers… Wall’s explosiveness will be too much for NO’s slow footed guards. To put it simple: we have the #1 ranked transition offense in the league (WAS) going against the #30 (dead last) transition defense in the league (NO).

WAS is rested and will face the Pelicans playing their 3rd game in 4 nights… I expect WAS to push up the pace against them, their obvious inside edge vs. NO will force the Pelicans to pack the paint on the defensive end which will give extra room for WAS’s shooters = BLOWOUT win!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 504 Washington Wizards (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA FREE Premium Play 02/22: New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks

New York  at Atlanta

NBA - 507 New York Knicks @ 508 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** ATL has now lost 8 straight games! Their L5 losses were essentially due to some bad defense w/ 118.8 Def. Rtg. Primarily, their lack of options on the frontcourt is the main culprit as ATL can’t protect properly the basket and that was pretty clear, because DET simply crushed them: “DET ended the game w/ 53.4% reb/rate%, 66 points in the paint while Monroe & Drummond combined to shoot 20-28 FG - a 71% mark! That was exactly why I had Detroit last night as my Best Play!” Fortunately for them, ATL won’t be torched defensively in this area tonight, because the Knicks really don’t have any “interest” in pound down low vs. their opponents! Note that last night, despite playing 2 OT’s vs. ORL, NYK was able to score just 28 points in the paint! ATL’s defense will be focused only in stopping NYK’s perimeter game and NYK’s is mired in a bad spot w/ 4 games in 5 days while last night’s game vs. ORL had 2 OT’s: Melo played 50 min, JR Smith 49, Hardaway 45, Felton 45 and Chandler 42 min! On the other side, like the Knicks, the Hawks really don’t have any interior game right now. They rely almost exclusively w/ their perimeter to be efficient but we are dealing with a team that lacks confidence right now. This will be the 4th and final H2H game between these two teams, and the first 3 games were all SLOW PACED affairs. I expect this contest to be quite similar in terms of pace factor and w/ both teams coming from bad physical spots and without any inside game, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 202.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Daily Message 02/22

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 319-259-9 ATS | +135.81 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 319-259-9 ATS | +64.13 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Detroit (-3.5) Triple Dime WIN

Over ORL/NYK 195 Double Dime WIN

Under TOR/CLE 196 WIN

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a nice 3-0 SWEEP in which we won our Triple Dime Play w/ Detroit and our Double Dime Play w/ Over ORL/NYK. It was nice to finally see our Totals Plays cashing w/ some ease after such a bad run where we really didn't have a chance in winning those Total Plays.

Our Triple Dime Play w/ DET didn't start well as the Pistons were trailing by 11 points at the break, but their size edge on the front was so obvious that they just killed the Hawks in the second half. DET ended the game w/ 53.4% reb/rate%, 66 points in the paint while Monroe & Drummond combined to shoot 20-28 FG - a 71% mark! That was exactly why I had Detroit last night as my Best Play!

We are already generating some profit for this second half of season and I'm looking forward to keep pounding the books, as usual… "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! So we just can't freak out after a couple of bad days, or I won't be gloating myself of how great I am after sweeping the board last night…

Moving on for today, we have a card of 8 games to work and I've already spotted a couple of games where we could have TOP PLAYS! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/21

NBA - 807 New York Knicks @ 808 Orlando Magic

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The matchup between these two teams is prone to be a high scoring game…

ORL has been healthy lately and obviously, their competitiveness has improved as well. Offensively, they are having some problems to be efficient but note that they have faced IND twice, OKC and MEM in L7 games so, it’s easy to understand their struggles vs. some of the best defensive teams in the league.

In the last game @CLE, ORL struggled as well on the offensive end by shooting just 39.3% from the field but w/ almost all their starters involved in trade rumors, the team clearly was not focused going for that game.

That will change tonight…. ORL’s offense is based in PNR’s while they need their guards to be productive and tonight, they will face Felton + Prigioni + JR Smith + Carmelo Anthony…enough said! NYK defense is ranked dead last in the league in defending PNR’s ball handler plays, so we have a good spot for ORL offense to be decent tonight.

On the other side, I expect NYK’s offense to torch this ORL defense that is predicated to be a decent defensive team near the basket but struggles vs. perimeter – ORL is allowing 38.1% 3pts in L10 games -> ranked #26 in the league!

My fair line for this contest is 200/202 points and so, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ Over as my Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 803 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 804 Toronto Raptors

Play #2

Even though most of their wins were against lowly teams, CLE is playing better especially due to an overall improvement of their defense. There are two key areas in which CLE clearly improved: spot up & transition: 1) CLE is allowing just 24.3% 3pts% in L5 games and 2) they are allowing just 9.8 fast break pts per game in L5 games after allowing 19.4 FB/pts per game in the previous 5 games!

Offensively, they continue to rely heavily on K. Irving especially now that D. Waiters is OUT due to an injury. For tonight, CLE will face the #4 ranked defensive team in league defending PNR’s ball handler plays, so I expect CLE to have some problems offensively against the Raptors.

TOR is coming from a subpar defensive effort vs. CHI in the last game. It was a b2b game for them and clearly they were not ready to face such physical frontcourt like the Bulls have. CHI scored 16 pts in the paint in the first quarter vs. 18 in the next 3 quarters! TOR’s coach made the wrong decision to start P. Patterson instead of Amir Johnson and TOR’s defense was awful in the beginning of the game. That won’t happen tonight as Johnson was already confirmed @starting lineup.

With TOR primed for a defensive bounce back & CLE’s improved defense, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 809 Atlanta Hawks @ 810 Detroit Pistons

Play #3

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Yes, I really hate the way this Pistons team don’t have the proper IQ to be a decent team but in this particular matchup, I really like them to beat the Hawks w/ some ease.

Unfortunately for them, ATL is completely banged up…. I don’t need to talk about their frontcourt as when Elton Brand is forced to play +30 minutes in 2014, it says it all… ATL has been completely outrebounded by their opponents lately – just 46% reb/rate in L10 games% while their opponents are scoring easy points on them in multiple ways.

ATL was able to be competitive because they had a good offensive flow based on their perimeter but unfortunately, they are struggling in this department lately and obviously, they just can’t win games! To make things even worse, Jeff Teague is banged up and he might miss tonight’s game!

ATL is 2-0 this season against DET and Teague was the KEY player in both matchups: he had 8-14 FG 18 pts + 7 assists in the 1st game and 7-17 FG, 18 pts, 9 assists and 6 rebounds in the second game. DET defense is terrible on the perimeter but w/ ATL being so banged up and struggling in here, I expect DET to be “OK” in here.

The biggest factor will be related w/ the HUGE size edge for DET w/ their frontcourt! ATL have only Millsap + Brand + Scott on the frontcourt and I expect frontcourt to completely dominate this contest and that’s why I’m taking DET in here as my Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 810 Detroit Pistons (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Daily Message 02/21

Daily Message 02/21:

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 316-259-9 ATS | +123.81 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 316-259-9 ATS | +55.13 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Milwaukee (+5) LOSS

Under OKC/MIA First Half 105.5 WIN

Houston (-1) LOSS

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a subpar day in which we went 1-2 ATS in our Plays. Because there were only 3 games on the card, I was able to watch all of them, so here’s a review of them:

The key factor for my play w/ MIL was the potential individual edge that B. Knight would have against DEN’s guards… Well, 20 minutes before the game, it was announced that Knight wouldn’t play the game due to an injury and the Bucks started w/ Wolters & Butler on the backcourt. Naturally, the Bucks had some tremendous problems w/ their ball movement and ended the game w/ just 15 assists while DEN easily won the game.

Once I knew that K. Perkins would start and Russell Westbrook was listed as probable for the game vs. MIA, I really didn't have any doubt that the “Under” was the right play in this contest. It was clear for me that OKC’s offensive flow would suffer a bit w/ the presence of Westbrook on the court and man…they really struggle! There were some moments were literally OKC didn’t move the ball... they just went directly for 1*1 plays using Durant or Westbrook.

On the last game of the day, we’ve lost w/ HOU that had a good chance to win the game in regulation, but they allowed S. Curry to tie the game in an awesome penetration move vs. D. Howard. The Rockets with Dwight Howard completely dominated the glass w/ 55.5% rebound rate% as expected. The problem was that Howard despite having 21 rebounds & 4 blocks struggled on the offensive w/ just 4-13 FG.

Moving on for today, we have a big card of 10 games to work, so let's do it! I’ve already a good spot for us – Game of the Week Triple Dime Play! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/20

NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1

I think that we have some value w/ Under in this contest, but I rather prefer play the Under @ First Half as I expect the game to start slow due to some key factors.

The first h2h game between these two teams ended up w/ 207 points but the game was a “slow paced” affair w/ both teams being extremely efficient on the offensive end: OKC had 51.3% FG while MIA had 51.4% FG.

For tonight, I also expect the game to be a relatively slow paced game, so we need to figure out both teams’ offensive efficiency…

Why I like the Under @ First Half?!

It is confirmed that K. Perkins will start for OKC and he is completely worthless for the team…in the first h2h game, OKC scored just 2 points in the first 6 minutes of the game w/ him on the court vs. 110 points in the remaining 42 minutes.

Russell Westbrook is back! Westbrook will start tonight and we all know him… not only he will be “rusty”, but also, he will rush things a bit on the offensive end. This can be problematic for OKC offense because MIA defense is just awesome pressuring the opp. ball handlers!

OKC’s head coach Scott Brooks didn’t play Perkins in the second half of the last H2H game and OKC’s exploded in the third quarter w/ 36 points. This might happen tonight if OKC keeps struggling w/ Perkins on the court….meanwhile I expect Westbrook to be better in the second half as well – all things considered, OKC will tend to be “better” in the second half on the offensive end.

MIA is coming from a monster offensive game @DAL by scoring 117 points. OKC’s defense is in another level vs. DAL defense and so, I expect OKC defense to be decent in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under FIRST HALF 105.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/20: Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Denver  at Milwaukee

NBA - 503 Denver Nuggets @ 504 Milwaukee Bucks Play #3 Yes, MIL is the worst team in the league but they are playing better as of late as their head coach Larry Drew has figured out some rotations, like playing rookie PG Wolters alongside w/ B. Knight; giving more minutes to J. Henson or playing K. Middleton @SF and not on the backcourt. The key factor for this contest is clearly related with the Denver Nuggets… Ty Lawson remains injured and will miss tonight’s game… not only he is BY FAR the Nuggets best player but also, DEN simply don’t have any real backups for him. I went against them in their last game vs. PHX saying the following: “In the L2 games prior to the All Star Break, DEN had awful Off. RTG of 87.3 & 93.0 while having just 17 and 19 assists. When their “Point Guard” right now is R. Foye (who is averaging just 3.0 assists per game this season), then it’s easy to understand why DEN is/will struggle this much without Lawson.” Well, DEN finished the game shooting 38.4% FG, shooting just 5-28 behind the line and had only 17 assists! Randy Foye isn’t a Point Guard and for this contest I really expect B. Knight to excel against the Nuggets’ poor backcourt defense. In the first h2h game between these two teams, DEN won the game by 10 points w/ 1) B. Knight having a terrible game w/ 4-17 FG and 2) Ty Lawson despite shooting just 6-14 FG, he had 7 rebounds and… 13 of the 22 team assists! DEN is lacking some confidence and most importantly, they aren’t play well and this current line DEN-5 is just too much for them as my fair line is DEN-1. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Milwaukee Bucks (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 02/20

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 315-257-9 ATS | +127.41 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 315-257-9 ATS | +59.33 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Washington (+1.5) WIN

Under ATL/WAS 203.5 LOSS

Under CHA/DET 201 LOSS

New Orleans (-3.5) LOSS

Golden State (-4.5) WIN

Houston (-8) WIN

Under POR/SAS 210 LOSS

Daily Message:

We are coming from a subpar 3-4 ATS card highlighted by the fact that we've lost all 3 of our Total Plays. For some reason, we are struggling w/ Total Plays after crushing the books last season using the exact same "method".

The only possible way for me is to keep adjusting because eventually, we will start cashing these Total Plays.

For tonight we have 3 games to work - 2 TNT games and I've released two plays for those 2 Primetime games, we might have one more play - working on it! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/19

NBA - 707 Washington Wizards @ 708 Atlanta Hawks

Play #1 & #3

Both teams are coming from clear losses on their yesterday’s games and they are struggling a bit to be competitive as of late.

However the biggest difference is that (unfortunately) ATL is completely banged up right now and I really don’t think they will be able to hang around against a healthy WAS team because otherwise, this current line was perfect IMO.

ATL’s frontcourt will be without Horford, Antic & Ayon for tonight, so basically they’ll have Millsap, an “old” E. Brand that was forced to play 30 minutes last night vs. powerful IND’s frontcourt and also Mike Scott.

ATL’s best perimeter defensive player D. Carroll must likely is OUT for tonight and Lou Williams has been limited @b2b games. With all these injuries, ATL’s offense has been regressing pretty hard lately while their defense and rebounding has been subpar all season long.

The Wizards were awful defensively last night vs. TOR as the Raptors torched them on PNR’s using their aggressive guards & big men rolling to the basket – something that ATL right now don’t have the right personnel to explore this WAS’s weakness and so, I’m taking the Wizards in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Washington Wizards (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

*ADDED PLAY*

NOTE: two teams struggling w/ their confidence & in b2b spots, this totals is inflated IMO as my fair line = 200 points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 203.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 02/19

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 312-253-9 ATS | +131.61 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 312-253-9 ATS | +60.73 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

New York (+5.5) WIN

Miami (-2) WIN

Phoenix (-2) WIN

LA Clippers (-6) LOSS

Daily Message:

We started the second half season w/ the "right foot" as we ended the night w/ 3-1 ATS in our plays. I've decided to have a "conservative" approach yesterday, especially involving two Eastern Conference teams. Actually, we didn't have any play in such scenario. I've been watching/reviewing those games early on the day in order to have a better "feeling" of them going forward.

We have 11 games to work for today, so I won't waste more time w/ today's Daily Message…just let's do it! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/18

NBA - 513 Miami Heat @ 514 Dallas Mavericks

Play #2

MIA defense has been a subpar unit for quite some time but IMO they will be a tough matchup for DAL’s offense tonight…

DAL is a mediocre offensive rebounding team (ranked #23 w/ 23.4% Offensive Rebounding%) and their frontcourt is far from being labeled “powerful”, so MIA’s biggest weakness won’t be explored in here.

DAL offense has been great all season long…their “bread & butter” offensive play(s) has been Pick n’ Roll’s  w/ more than 31% of volume% where they are super efficient. The bad news for them is that MIA defense is ranked #1 in defending Pick n Rolls this season, and so I expect MIA to put some extra pressure on DAL’s ball handler’s and create some TO’s.

DAL defense hasn’t been capable of slowing down the best offensive teams in the league and certainly, the Heat is one of them. LeBron James will simply torch them w/ his passing & shooting ability.

With MIA’s defense being decent in this contest, I expect them to win tonight’s game because DAL won’t be able to slow down MIA’s offense.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Miami Heat (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/18: New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies

New York  at Memphis

NBA - 509 New York Knicks @ 510 Memphis Grizzlies ***FREE Premium Play*** I expect the Knicks to be extremely competitive tonight... note that they are not better than the Grizzlies, but they match up well vs. MEM and especially, I think that MEM’s won’t be sharp in this spot. Marc Gasol is not 100% healthy… you just need to watch some MEM’s games as of late to watch him being slow @ everything. Yes, his presence down low is still a major factor but against a jump shooting team like NYK is, I don’t expect him to offer much value to his team. Mike Conley returns to action after some time being injured…it’s the second time that Conley has been injured this season and in the first one, Conley struggled a bit in the first games after being healthy, so I expect him to be “rusty” tonight. Now that Tyson Chandler has been decent on the defensive end, I expect him to protect the rim vs. MEM frontcourt. The X factor of this contest is related w/ MEM defense vs. NYK offense… MEM defense has been struggling on the perimeter as they are predicated to “protect the basket” and so, NYK’s outside shooting can cause some serious problems to MEM’s defense and this contest will be a close one. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 New York Knicks (+5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA 2nd Half Season Message 02/18

Daily Message 02/12:

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 309-252-9 ATS | +125.91 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 309-252-9 ATS | +58.83 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Daily Message:

The NBA's second half of season kicks out today and I'm looking forward to keep doing my usual work in this sport. I've been telling that the season is "a marathon and not a sprint" because it really is: we've started the season on the wrong way with some big negative units to show on my season record, but then, we've bounced back strong w/ some insane numbers just to have a bit of a letdown in the last week before the All Star Break. We should not freak out when things are bad, or just become lazy when we are "hitting" everything, we just should "trust" in our skills and keep adjusting throughout the season, because eventually, all the hard work will pay off.

With almost one week without any "serious" NBA stuff to work, I've decided to simply "shutdown" my mind these days, recharge some batteries and getting ready to attack the next 4 months that we still have left to cash w/ the NBA.

For today we have a card of 9 games to work, so let's do it! ONCE AGAIN, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/13

 NBA - 501 Brooklyn Nets @ 502 Chicago Bulls

Play #1

My fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 game, so we should be dealing with a PK line instead of the Bulls being favored by 3/4 points.

The biggest problem for me is related w/ BKN’s physical spot, as their key players aren’t young and playing b2b games w/ the second game being @CHI isn’t exactly a good spot.

Fortunately for them, BKN’s bench has been superb lately with an incredible depth and all players are confident and ready to contribute. Last night, they were able to defeat CHA 105-89 and no player played more than 28 minutes, while Jason Kidd played 12 (!!!) players! Kevin Garnett logged just 15 minutes so it was pretty clear that the Nets were thinking in advance in tonight’s contest.

These two teams don’t like each other… CHI defeated the Nets in the playoffs winning the game 7 @BKN and already in this season, CHI humiliated the Nets in the Christmas’ day by crushing them 95-78.

However, things have changed and the Nets are playing pretty well right now. In that game, CHI’s bench was a major factor for their win as Gibson, Augustin & Snell combined to shoot 15-28 FG for 37 points, 16 rebounds & 7 assists while BKN’s bench was just awful – note that P. Pierce (he was a backup then) and Blatche combined to shoot 2-19 FG! For tonight I expect the roles to be reversed and the Nets bench to have some edge over CHI's 2nd unit.

CHI’s frontcourt unit of Noah & Gibson has been playing well… looks like Boozer will return tonight and this is IMO good news for… the Nets! They might dominate BKN’s starting frontcourt unit but the Nets have some great depth on the bench in this area w/ Teletovic, Plumlee, Blatche and Kirilenko and so, I expect BKN to be competitive especially by their tremendous edge w/ 2nd unit.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Brooklyn Nets (+4) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Card 02/12

NBA - 725 Portland Trail Blazers @ 726 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #1

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

We are dealing with two teams w/ almost similar records (LAC 36-18 & POR 36-16) and so, this LAC-8.5/-9 line sounds “weird”, right?!

Well, I have to say that I had this play on my mind since I’ve saw the Blazers having tremendous problems to defeat a MIN team playing without K. Love, K. Martin and N. Pekovic this past Saturday! POR is banged up both physically and "mentally" and having to face a rested LAC tonight after playing a tight game vs. OKC last night will be too much for them...

I know that POR has been a jump shooting team all season long but lately, they simply can’t score near the basket… In L4 games, they have scored just 20, 24, 28 and 38 points in the paint! It’s hard to win ball games almost exclusively from long range jumpers, especially if you are tired and this has been the case for the Blazers lately…

You just need to watch last night’s 4th quarter to understand how 1) POR was tired in the final quarter & 2) they are attempting ONLY long range jumpers, here’s a sample play-by-play from POR midway the 4th quarter:

9:48                     80-84    Wesley Matthews misses 25-foot three point jumper

9:38                     80-84    C.J. McCollum misses 24-foot three point jumper

9:11                     80-84    C.J. McCollum misses 21-foot jumper

8:17                     80-84    C.J. McCollum misses 26-foot three point jumper

8:11                     80-84    C.J. McCollum misses 9-foot Running Jumper

8:02                     80-84    Wesley Matthews misses 23-foot three point jumper

7:15                     87-84    LaMarcus Aldridge misses 19-foot jumper

L. Aldrige is banged up and struggling a bit lately and tonight he will face B. Griffin that is simply dominating the game right now.

However, the X factor for this contest is related w/ LAC offense vs. POR defense.

As good as D. Lillard has been offensively, his defense has been incredibly bad!! Just look for opp. PG’s against POR lately:

George Hill 12-19 FG, 11-12 FT for 37 points & 8 assists
Ricky Rubio (!!!) 8-19 FG, 2-4 3pts, 7-8 FT for 25 points & 9 assists

Last night, Reggie Jackson went scoreless in the first half w/ 0-6 FG, but he was THE REASON (with Durant obviously) why OKC rallied back and won the game as he finished the 2nd half w/ 7-13 FG, for 17 points and 4 assists!

Well, there is guy called Chris Paul and he’s healthy now and ready to destroy POR’s ranked #26 P&R ball handler defense, while POR awful interior defense will be torched by Griffin & DeAndre Jordan.

Last night, POR’s best backup defensive interior player J. Freeland got injured (and will miss this contest) and Robin Lopez was “forced” to play major minutes. POR don’t have any decent interior defensive solution on the bench and so, I expect LAC to have some great edges down low tonight.

POR won the first h2h game (a game where they were rested +3days off vs. LAC team playing b2b games, a day after Christmas day), so LAC knows the importance of winning tonight’s contest for a potential playoff home court edge going forward. The correlation of all the factors mentioned before makes me playing the Los Angeles Clippers as my Triple Dime Play.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 726 Los Angeles Clippers (-8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker