NBA - 815 Golden State Warriors @ 816 Chicago Bulls
Projected Line: 193 points
Chicago's defense has been struggling in those areas: transitions (#25 while allowing 1.20 PPP) and position defense at the PG position that results in poor pick and roll ball handler defense numbers (#16 while allowing 0.79 PPP). The problem for the Bulls's defense tonight is that Golden State's offense is amazing in both areas. They have Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack forming an elite PG combo and the Warriors have been super sharp in transitions by being #4 in the league with 1.20 PPP, while scoring 11, 17, 23 and 26 fast break points over their last 4 games. Of course the Bulls's defense is an elite unit in the other areas, but these two areas where their struggle will be well explored by a very confident Warriors team that is coming from two nice wins over the Clippers and the Thunder.
But if the Warriors's offense will have an edge in guard play, then Chicago will simply crush the Warriors's defense down low. After a good defensive start of the start in protecting the paint, Golden State's defense is now far from the top 10 in this area by allowing 45 points in the paint and 69% FG at the rim over their last 10 games, while being ranked #20 in post up defense while allowing 0.85 PPP and every stat that depends from their interior defense is declining big time lately. This is good news for Chicago's frontcourt with Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah, who has been playing well on offense lately. We can definitely expect Chicago to score over 45 points in the paint tonight, while dominating the boards with a good number of offensive rebounds. Chicago's backcourt has been inconsistent on offense, but Marco Belinelli has been playing well while coming off the bench and also everytime the Bulls need an offensive spark, Nate Robinson takes the lead in the Bulls's offense. I see this game as ended up being a good offensive contest, so I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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