NBA - 511 Golden State Warriors @ 512 Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Line: 204 points
Golden State is coming from a big loss at Chicago last night, where after two big wins over the Clippers and the Thunder, they were terrible against the Bulls. Chicago showed much more effort than the Warriors, with Golden State's offense being almost exclusively jumpers that resulted in bricks after bricks. They didn't attack the rim often (12-16 FG), while they had 59% volume of shots coming from more than 16 feet! On defense, the Warriors did a fine job in protecting the paint, but they left space on the outside and the Bulls took advantage of that to have a rare great outside game with 8-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-20 3pts! I expect the Warriors to play better tonight, as they had a reality check yesterday on a bad spot and against an opponent that can crush any team that doesn't show 100% effort.
However, Milwaukee's defense is in theory another very tough opponent for the Warriors. They are #8 in pick and roll ball handler defense, #6 in spot up defense and they also defend well from the 3pts line. Milwaukee played in Cleveland last night with the mindset of outscoring the Cavaliers and they failed. Therefore, I expect them to show a much bigger defensive effort tonight. Their defense was playing very well, but on a winning streak and with the perspective of an easy game against a lowly team, they played a poor defensive game.
The Bucks used their main problems a lot of time last night, with Ersan Ilyasova playing 39 minutes, Monta Ellis 42 minutes and Brandon Jennings 32 minutes. Milwaukee has some strong Under trends for tonight, as they are 4-1 Under on their last 5 back to back games and also 4-1 Under in their last 5 games when their starting lineup combines for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. That is explained with the fact that the Bucks play at a slower tempo on back to back games (93.18 season vs 91.46 back to back games), while they are also much worse on offense (104.01 offensive rating season vs 99.36 back to back games). The Warriors's defense has been struggling in protecting the rim by averaging just 68% FG for the season and 69% FG over their last 10 games. The good news for them is that Milwaukee is a poor team in shooting at the rim with just 61% FG! Larry Sanders is still very raw on offense and Ersan Ilyasova is a perimeter shooter. Both teams are coming from bad losses yesterday and I believe that both teams have a nice defensive matchup and spot for tonight. Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
The Bucks used their main problems a lot of time last night, with Ersan Ilyasova playing 39 minutes, Monta Ellis 42 minutes and Brandon Jennings 32 minutes. Milwaukee has some strong Under trends for tonight, as they are 4-1 Under on their last 5 back to back games and also 4-1 Under in their last 5 games when their starting lineup combines for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. That is explained with the fact that the Bucks play at a slower tempo on back to back games (93.18 season vs 91.46 back to back games), while they are also much worse on offense (104.01 offensive rating season vs 99.36 back to back games). The Warriors's defense has been struggling in protecting the rim by averaging just 68% FG for the season and 69% FG over their last 10 games. The good news for them is that Milwaukee is a poor team in shooting at the rim with just 61% FG! Larry Sanders is still very raw on offense and Ersan Ilyasova is a perimeter shooter. Both teams are coming from bad losses yesterday and I believe that both teams have a nice defensive matchup and spot for tonight. Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 208,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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