NBA - 813 San Antonio Spurs @ 814 Dallas Mavericks
Projected Lines: 209 points | Dallas by 3 points
Dallas had four days to prepare this game against the Spurs, in a clear revenge game for them, as they got absolutely crushed by San Antonio in the first two games between these two teams earlier on the season. San Antonio is coming from a home win against New Orleans, where without Tim Duncan, the Spurs's offense was more perimeter oriented and with a faster pace than usual, they crushed the Hornets on transitions, while scoring also 66 points in the paint. The only problem that the Spurs had on offense was in their long range shooting with 7-26 FG on spot ups and 8-25 on 3pts. The only way the Hornets managed to stay competitive was by grabbing almost 55% of the rebounds and having a solid outside shooting game with 10-17 3pts! With Tim Duncan also out for tonight, we can expect San Antonio to have a similar approach tonight.
San Antonio's defense struggles against frontcourt players who are good mid-range shooters and so, Dirk Nowitzki has a great chance to have a big game tonight, besides the fact that also Chris Kaman and Elton Brand are good mid-range shooters as well. Dallas is rested and so, they will push the ball to score in transition, where they are definitely good, as they are #4 in the league with 1.20 PPP! They have been improving lately on pick and roll ball handler plays, on spot ups and on cuts. In fact, Dallas is a poorer version of the Spurs, a fast paced team with a good offense. They averaged 26.8 assists on their last 5 games, while their season average prior to those games was just 21.6! Dallas also averaged 21.2 fast break points per game in those five games!
Without Tim Duncan, San Antonio won't have a good post up game and so, I believe they will follow the same gameplan they had against the Hornets: attack early in transition and then use a lot of pick and rolls by involving Tiago Splitter in those. This was how they scored 25 fast break points and 66 points in the paint in that game! Dallas's defense isn't playing at a decent level, so San Antonio's offense should have another good offensive game in here, even though they will be playing without Tum Duncan. We have a big revenge spot for Dallas, who had 4 days of rest to prepare this game, so I expect them to edge a Spurs team that will be playing tonight Tim Duncan and who will be also missing Gregg Popovich, who stayed in San Antonio due to illness. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Mavericks and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 813/814 Over 204,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 814 Dallas Mavericks (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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