NBA Premium Play 03/31: Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks

NBA - 709 Boston Celtics @ 710 New York Knicks

Projected Line: 199 points

The last game between these two teams had just 185 points and fortunately for us, we won our Under play due to a 16-16 final quarter score, where the Celtics used some weird lineups and the Knicks slowed down the pace as much as they could to keep their lead in the game. Boston is currently playing super undersized due to Kevin Garnett's absence due to injury. They played with that style against the Knicks, but they showed no offensive flow whatsoever in that game. I remember watching them playing with Avery Bradley, Jordan Crawford and Jason Terry together on the backcourt! Since then, they've played two other games and their pace was simply absurd: 98.1 against Cleveland and 94.9 against Atlanta. This is especially absurd, as their season average pace factor is 90.0! We can expect the Celtics to impose once again a fast tempo on their game, as Doc Rivers can't use any other style on his team with his available players, as also the Knicks is on a similar situation where Kenyon Martin is the only available frontcourt player. 

The Knicks's offense seems to be back with J.R. Smith being red hot lately. They are also being very aggressive on offense, something that used to be rare for them during this season: 50, 36 (vs Memphis) and 48 points in the paint on their last three games. It will be very hard for Boston to shutdown the Knicks's offense on their current form, especially without Kevin Garnett. I expect an up tempo game dictated by Boston, but with the Celtics being more ready on offense to face the Knicks than they were last Tuesday. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 03/31: Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 707 Miami Heat @ 708 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: 194 points

This could have been the biggest game of the regular season if Miami hadn't lost in Chicago last Wednesday. However, this will still be a great game. We can't take anything in consideration from the game played at Miami between these two teams earlier on the season because Coach Popovich decided to rest his starters in that way. That contest was a fast paced one, something that I doubt that it will happen today. In fact, I expect this game to be a pure half court game. 

There are several things that make me believe that this game will be indeed a slow paced one. Both teams commit a very small number of turnovers and even though San Antonio actually struggled a bit on this area lately, they bounced back big time on their last game against the Clippers by committing just 9 turnovers. These two teams simply don't try to get offensive rebounds, as Miami is #27 in the league on this area, while San Antonio is #29, so this game won't have a lot of second chance points. Finally, both teams don't like to put their opponents on the FT line. San Antonio is #2 in the league on opposing FT rate with 18.2%!

We are also in front of two top teams in rim defense, so this game won't have a lot of easy points scored. Of course both teams are coming from monster outside shooting games, with Miami shooting 14-27 3pts at New Orleans, while San Antonio was super efficient on their perimeter shooting against the Clippers. However, I believe both teams will show a lot of intensity on defense today and prevent their opponents from having huge perimeter shooting games today. Miami is choosing their spots very well to rise their defensive level this season and tonight it will certainly be one of those spots. On the other hand, San Antonio has been an elite defensive team this season and they will certainly do a good job on defending the Heat tonight. Therefore, I expect a game close to be a grind out contest and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 197,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB Free Premium Play 03/31: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Texas  at Houston

MLB - 997 Texas Rangers @ 998 Houston Astros (Starting Pitchers: M. Harrison vs B. Norris) I believe this game has what it takes to be a high scoring game, especially with the wind blowing out to left field in Houston's hitters park. Bud Norris is coming for tonight's game with some hype due to the ridiculous split he had on his home starts last season (1.71 ERA) in comparison to his road starts (6.94 ERA). This kind of split stats are very unlikely to be repeated in consecutive seasons, especially when we aren't talking about a pitcher who plays his home games in a pitcher-friendly park such as San Diego's or Seattle's parks. During Spring Training, Norris didn't impress me: 2-0 record, 5.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 8/3 K/BB ratio over 14.2 innings. He continues having a good strikeout ability, but his command is inconsistent. Most important than that it is how he will match up with the Rangers's offense. Norris's best pitch is his sharp slider according to fangraphs stats, as in fact that his only plus value pitch since he debuted on the MLB. The problem for him tonight is that Texas was #1 in the league in hitting against slider pitches. Josh Hamilton may be gone, but Texas has A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman, who should be able to fill the gap of Hamilton leaving the team. If we add to this Houston's poor bullpen, we have Texas having a great spot to score a nice number of runs tonight. On the other side, Matt Harrison signed a long term deal with Texas during this offseason, but he struggled during Spring Training due to a toe injury. Thanks to that, he pitched just 12 innings and his results weren't great: 5.11 ERA and just 5 strikeouts! Everybody is expecting the Astros's offense to struggle big time this season, but they may surprise early on the season, as their hitting is carrying some momentum from the preseason, where they were #9 in the league in OPS with .810! They will be also be a good base running team this season, so they should be able to score a decent number of runs tonight against a rusty Harrison. The public is currently on the Under and that has made the totals line decrease, when it should have been on 9 runs. Therefore, I see value on the Over tonight and so, I'll be taking it in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 997/998 Over 8 (w/ M. Harrison & B. Norris) @ -117 / 1.855 on 5Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/31: Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards

Toronto  at Washington

NBA - 701 Toronto Raptors @ 702 Washington Wizards Projected Line: 196 points I believe we have a good value on the Over on this contest, even though we are in front of two teams who have been under machines. John Wall is the key for the Wizards and the team has been more competitive lately due to Wall's great offensive performances. However, the Wizards's defense has been regressing a lot. They are still an elite defensive team if we look at their season numbers (averaging an overall defensive rating of 104.5), but they have been struggling as of late on defense (defensive rating of 109.7 over their last five games). They have been especially regressing on pick and roll ball handler defense, while their transition is also getting poorer, as they have allowed 13.2 fast break points per game over their last five games. Toronto's offense is far from being an elite unit due to their lack of ball movement, but the good news for them is that the Raptors are now trying to attack more the basket, instead of being an one-dimensional jump shooting team. Over their last six games, Toronto has been averaging 50 points in the paint and therefore, I actually expect them to have a decent offensive game tonight. On the other side, Washington's offense will have John Wall, who will put the Raptors's defense in trouble with his speed. Toronto's defense has been struggling in stopping the transition games of their opponents, while their perimeter defense has been atrocious. So, no wonder that they've allowed 50-118 (42%) 3pts to their opponents over their last six games. Washington relies a lot on their perimeter shooting especially on home games, where they have been playing much better on offense, and therefore I expect them to have a good offensive game today. I see this game being a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA 03/30 Advanced Stats Numbers

Chicago at Dallas							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CHI	23	33	19	23	98		85.84	113.53	0.55	12.88	26.83	12.50
DAL	24	29	22	25	100			117.15	0.54	11.23	24.32	17.72
Orlando at Atlanta							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
ORL	27	17	16	28	88		96.73	90.87	0.41	16.12	32.69	18.39
ATL	23	22	22	30	97			100.40	0.47	16.42	20.00	29.49
Charlotte at Philadelphia							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CHAR	31	15	25	21	92		85.44	106.34	0.51	12.23	23.53	18.42
PHI	22	27	24	27	100			118.53	0.55	10.54	20.59	26.03
L.A. Clippers at Houston							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
LAC	29	21	13	18	81		95.06	87.74	0.44	18.42	16.28	15.38
HOU	28	27	30	13	98			100.20	0.49	19.32	27.91	23.75
Memphis at Minnesota							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MEM	23	22	20	34	99		86.80	114.74	0.55	10.54	15.63	26.03
MIN	30	20	17	19	86			98.49	0.47	17.18	21.05	34.33
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
OKC	32	24	27	26	109		89.61	123.31	0.56	12.74	27.78	33.33
MIL	28	18	37	16	99			109.01	0.44	7.92	33.33	13.27
Brooklyn at Utah							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
BK	28	26	20	33	107		87.80	122.00	0.57	15.98	37.50	18.52
UTA	33	19	31	33	116			131.97	0.62	9.85	26.32	19.75
Indiana at Phoenix							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
IND	27	30	29	26	112		92.93	122.50	0.49	12.25	42.22	42.50
PHO	21	28	27	28	104			110.14	0.52	15.83	25.71	21.95
L.A. Lakers at Sacramento							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
LAL	25	28	29	21	103		83.75	125.58	0.52	6.97	34.88	20.73
SAC	37	20	18	23	98			114.65	0.49	11.42	37.21	15.12
Portland at Golden State							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
POR	31	24	23	20	98		94.39	103.37	0.43	10.02	21.15	27.91
GS	36	29	31	29	125			133.03	0.59	9.18	28.95	25.29