NBA - 721 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 722 Golden State Warriors
Projected Line: 203 points
Oklahoma City will play their third game in four nights, with this game also being a back to back game, so it's normal the numbers show that on this kind of games, they played at a slower pace, as their offensive efficiency gets worse as well. Curiously, their defense improves on this kind of games! This isn't indeed a good spot for them. Oklahoma City had back to back games that went to overtime and yesterday they had a showdown at LA against the Clippers, in a game that demanded a maximum effort from Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Russell Westbrook, who played almost 40 minutes each. Note that after two games at Dallas and Denver, where the Thunder were very aggressive and attempted 33 and 40 free throws, yesterday at LA, the Thunder had just 14, a sign that they didn't attack the basket as much as usual. In fact, they scored just 36 points in the paint, but fortunately for them, their outside shooting was amazing with 15-27 3pts!
Today, I expect Oklahoma City to continue showing little aggressiveness on this poor spot by attempting outside shots, but without yesterday's great efficiency. Golden State had a big fourth quarter against the Clippers at home two days ago, where Jarrett Jack explored the fact that Chris Paul was pretty much playing on one leg to beat the Clippers down the stretch. I doubt this will happen today against Russell Westbrook, as the Thunder's defense is #1 in the league against pick and roll ball handler plays by allowing just 0.67 PPP. I believe tonight's totals line is overrated. The totals line of the Warriors/Clippers game was 198/199 and the line of the Clippers/Thunder game was 201 points. As these two games ended with 206 and 205 points, the totals line was set at 208, but the spots and matchups for both offenses are much tougher, so I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 208 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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