NBA - 701 Washington Wizards @ 702 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Lines: 194 points | pk line
Philadelphia are coming from a home loss against Memphis in a very weird game. They started amazingly on offense and the truth is that they ended the game with 12-20 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and 7-10 FG on transitions! Their current lineup with Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, Nick Young and Jrue Holiday is very good on offense, but they will never be a good defensive lineup. According to 82games.com, they average an offensive rating of 104 together, but with a 107 defensive rating! After a slow start, Memphis came back to the game by pounding the Sixers down low, while Jerry Bayless also outplayed Jrue Holiday on offense. On the other hand, Washington is coming from a poor home loss against Sacramento, where they led the game comfortably, but then they relaxed and ended up losing it down the stretch. They ended up committing 20 turnovers that resulted in 23 points off turnovers for the Kings.
“We let them stick around,” Martell Webster said. “I think we kind of got into a mindstate where we felt, we can outscore these guys. We have to learn from those mistakes.”
“That’s as bad a ball movement that we’ve had in almost a month and sometimes when things come easy. … I don’t know if we reversed the ball more than three or four times,” a flustered Coach Randy Wittman said afterward. “Whenever we have more turnovers than assists, that means we’re trying to do too much on an individual basis.”
With the Sixers keeping the same starting lineup, their interior defense is simply horrible. This is why they are allowing 72% FG at the rim over their last 10 games! Therefore, Nene Hilario should have a big bounce back game today. After their lack of focus against Sacramento, I expect Washington to come focused for this game, while having a good ball movement. Washington has been using primarily post ups, spot ups, cuts and transitions and Philadelphia's post up defense is obviously not good (#26 while allowing 0.89 PPP). But I believe the key in here for a great offensive game from Washington will be on transitions, where Philadelphia's transition defense is #4 in the league while allowing 1.07 PPP, but they have been regressing a lot on this area lately with 1.18 PPP over their last 10 games and 1.33 PPP on their last 5 games.
The good part of the new Sixers's lineup is that they are as good on offense as they are bad on defense. Philadelphia is coming from three good offensive games, where they had offensive ratings of 108.7, 110.2 and 114.5, while having good transition numbers in these three games. Their pick and roll ball handler plays has been quite good, as Jrue Holiday has been amazing on offense. John Wall isn't ready to defend Jrue Holiday and the truth is that Washington's pick and roll ball handler defense has been regressing a bit lately. Therefore, I expect the Sixers to have a good offensive game in here as well.
Both teams should have good offensive games tonight, so I believe this game will be a high scoring one. I don't see a favorite in here, therefore I'll be taking both the Over and the Wizards plus the points in here.
The good part of the new Sixers's lineup is that they are as good on offense as they are bad on defense. Philadelphia is coming from three good offensive games, where they had offensive ratings of 108.7, 110.2 and 114.5, while having good transition numbers in these three games. Their pick and roll ball handler plays has been quite good, as Jrue Holiday has been amazing on offense. John Wall isn't ready to defend Jrue Holiday and the truth is that Washington's pick and roll ball handler defense has been regressing a bit lately. Therefore, I expect the Sixers to have a good offensive game in here as well.
Both teams should have good offensive games tonight, so I believe this game will be a high scoring one. I don't see a favorite in here, therefore I'll be taking both the Over and the Wizards plus the points in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Washington Wizards (+4) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
Projected Line: 177 points
Indiana is coming from a road trip, where they really didn't have any legs at the end of it. I remember that their MLK game at Memphis was so brutal that the Pacers didn't have the physical or mental strength to be competitive at Portland, then at Utah and Denver, they were competitive due to a good offense, as their defense was non-existent on their last three games: 111.67, 119.42 and 109.31 defensive rating! Their inability to defend in those games was evident especially on transitions, where Indiana happens to be #1 in the league while allowing 1.01 PPP, but they allowed 1.29 PPP against Houston, 1.09 PPP against Memphis, 1.33 PPP against Utah and 1.23 PPP against Denver on their last four games!
With three losses on their last three games, Indiana will have a defensive bounce back mindset for tonight. The Pacers will try to establish themselves as an elite defense on half court and they have a good spot to do that tonight, as Detroit is #24 in pace factor, while Indiana is #27. Detroit's offense is based on their frontcourt with Greg Monroe and now Andre Drummond, however Indiana's interior defense is an elite unit by allowing just 60% FG at the rim, with 57% FG on their last 10 games, and with just 35.7 points in the paint allowed per game (#1 in the league). This isn't a good spot for Detroit, who will be playing their third game in four nights, after having played Milwaukee at home last night. Detroit tried to play a fast paced game against Milwaukee and they got completely crushed, as they really only work on halfcourt: 18 assists and 21 turnovers yesterday that resulted in 29 points off turnovers favoring the Bucks.
Both teams are on tough spots tonight, therefore I expect Indiana to have a defensive bounce back tonight on a very slow paced game, so I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 181,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 707 Toronto Raptors @ 708 Atlanta Hawks
Projected Line: Atlanta by 10 points
Toronto has Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields and Amir Johnson banged up for tonight and from these three players, Amir Johnson is no doubt the most important one, as Toronto has an offensive rating improvement of +10.1 and a defensive rating improvement of -5.9 with him on the court! Therefore, a banged up Amir is terrible news for the Raptors tonight both offensively and defensively. The Raptors have in the Hawks a tough matchup and this is thanks to Atlanta's transition plays. Toronto isn't a fast team in getting back into defense (#23 in transition defense, while allowing 1.17 PPP for the season, with 1.37 PPP over their last 10 games) and they got completely exposed on their last game, where they got crushed by Golden State's transitions (11-16 FG 1.47 PPP)!
NBA - 713 Chicago Bulls @ 714 Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Line: 187 points
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Over 217.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721 Houston Rockets (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Projected Line: Atlanta by 10 points
Toronto has Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields and Amir Johnson banged up for tonight and from these three players, Amir Johnson is no doubt the most important one, as Toronto has an offensive rating improvement of +10.1 and a defensive rating improvement of -5.9 with him on the court! Therefore, a banged up Amir is terrible news for the Raptors tonight both offensively and defensively. The Raptors have in the Hawks a tough matchup and this is thanks to Atlanta's transition plays. Toronto isn't a fast team in getting back into defense (#23 in transition defense, while allowing 1.17 PPP for the season, with 1.37 PPP over their last 10 games) and they got completely exposed on their last game, where they got crushed by Golden State's transitions (11-16 FG 1.47 PPP)!
Curiously, Atlanta has been destroying their opponents on transitions all season long and since they got crushed at Chicago, with just 58 points scored, their offense has been changed for the best. They are already an elite team on transitions by being #6 in the league with 1.19 PPP and #6 in fast break points per game with 16.7 ppg, but they have been better lately with 20.2 fast break points per game on their last 5 games! Atlanta's offense will have a super edge on this area and if Amir Johnson is indeed struggle physically, then Al Horford and Josh Smith will also be too much for Toronto. The Raptors's offense has been playing well, without committing turnovers, however Atlanta's defense is an elite team in forcing turnovers and with Kyle Lowry not being physically at 100%, the Raptors may struggle on this area tonight.
The Raptors are once again involved in a lot of trade rumors, so they are struggling in keeping their focus on the games. I expect Atlanta to absolutely pound Toronto on transitions and down low, therefore I'll be taking the Hawks tonight for an easy win.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Atlanta Hawks (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Sacramento Kings @ 710 Boston Celtics
Projected Line: 198 points
Today will be the first game where Boston had to prepare for a new PG system, as Rondo was only out in the shootaround of their last game against Miami. They will be playing with a non-PG system, just like their second unit is currently playing.
Projected Line: 198 points
Today will be the first game where Boston had to prepare for a new PG system, as Rondo was only out in the shootaround of their last game against Miami. They will be playing with a non-PG system, just like their second unit is currently playing.
"Don't get me wrong," Jason Terry prefaced, "Rajon (Rondo) makes us the best we can possibly be. But," he continued, "now, having multiple ball-handlers out there, it's just going to make us unpredictable. You don't know who's going to handle it. I think the wings are going to get out there and run a little harder. We should be able to play in transition a little more."
"That part, honestly, I don't think it's much different," Doc Rivers said. "If you watch our second unit, that's what they were doing. I don't see a lot of change there. We're already doing it a lot with the second unit. The first unit was watching it, what we were doing with the ball movement. There was no point guard system with that unit. That unit was becoming very successful. Now, the entire team does that. We did it once so far against Miami. Now, we just have to get better at it."
"That part, honestly, I don't think it's much different," Doc Rivers said. "If you watch our second unit, that's what they were doing. I don't see a lot of change there. We're already doing it a lot with the second unit. The first unit was watching it, what we were doing with the ball movement. There was no point guard system with that unit. That unit was becoming very successful. Now, the entire team does that. We did it once so far against Miami. Now, we just have to get better at it."
The good news for Boston tonight is that they will be facing a terrible Kings's defense tonight. Sacramento is the worst team in the league in defending pick and rolls and they will be completely surprised with Boston's new style. Sacramento has the tendency to commit turnovers (25, 18 and 20 turnovers in three of their last four games) and I'm sure that Boston will put a good high pressure on the ball carrier and this will force turnovers and consequently transition chances for the Celtics. Since Avery Bradley returned, this has been how the Celtics have been playing. Before the return of Bradley, Boston was averaging just 13.1 fast break points per game, but they have averaged 15.8 fast break points on their last 5 games!
On the other hand, Sacramento will have a natural edge on boards against Boston's undersized frontcourt that even allowed Miami to grab 56% of the rebounds on last Sunday's game! Boston's transition defense keeps being a problem for them and they are last in the league while allowing 1.26 PPP! So, the Kings's gameplan for tonight will obviously be push the pace and attack Boston early on the clock. The Kings have scored 20, 15, 22 and 24 fast break points on their last 4 games and I expect them to cause problems to the Celtics's defense tonight.
On the other hand, Sacramento will have a natural edge on boards against Boston's undersized frontcourt that even allowed Miami to grab 56% of the rebounds on last Sunday's game! Boston's transition defense keeps being a problem for them and they are last in the league while allowing 1.26 PPP! So, the Kings's gameplan for tonight will obviously be push the pace and attack Boston early on the clock. The Kings have scored 20, 15, 22 and 24 fast break points on their last 4 games and I expect them to cause problems to the Celtics's defense tonight.
I expect this game to quickly turn into a shootout, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Projected Line: 187 points
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/14 Under 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 717 Charlotte Bobcats @ 718 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 205 points
San Antonio had 3 days off to rest and prepare this game against Charlotte, who is coming from a road game at Chicago. With the Spurs's offense rested, they will simply crush Charlotte's defense. We know that the Bobcats's defensive system has fatal flaws on the perimeter, no doubt about that. They are #30 on 3pts defense by allowing 39% 3pts, #30 on spot up defense with 1.05 PPP allowed and with San Antonio's excellent ball movement, the Spurs will have clean shots after clean shots on the perimeter tonight and with them being rested and playing at home, they will have a huge offensive game tonight. It's also important to mention that San Antonio scored an incredible 132 points at Charlotte earlier on this season, so this is indeed a perfect matchup for the Spurs's offense.
Projected Line: 205 points
San Antonio had 3 days off to rest and prepare this game against Charlotte, who is coming from a road game at Chicago. With the Spurs's offense rested, they will simply crush Charlotte's defense. We know that the Bobcats's defensive system has fatal flaws on the perimeter, no doubt about that. They are #30 on 3pts defense by allowing 39% 3pts, #30 on spot up defense with 1.05 PPP allowed and with San Antonio's excellent ball movement, the Spurs will have clean shots after clean shots on the perimeter tonight and with them being rested and playing at home, they will have a huge offensive game tonight. It's also important to mention that San Antonio scored an incredible 132 points at Charlotte earlier on this season, so this is indeed a perfect matchup for the Spurs's offense.
The only thing that Charlotte's offense will have working for them tonight will be their transitions and in that first game played between these two players, Charlotte scored 102 points mostly thanks to their 25 fast break points. Having in account San Antonio's gameplan for tonight, they won't be very concern with their defense, as they will simply outgun Charlotte on offense. The Bobcats are coming from a competitive game at Chicago, where I took the Under. The game pace was 84.6, as Chicago wanted to play a halfcourt game to take advantage of their size edge, as I predicted. Charlotte decided to play with a small lineup with Jeff Adrien at the PF position and they were completely outrebounded thanks to that.
But tonight's contest will certainly be played on an untempo game, as this is how San Antonio plays at home. A win in tonight’s game will make Gregg Popovich the head coach for the West All-Star team, which provides added motivation against the Bobcats, according to Tony Parker.
“I like it,” said Parker, named to the All-Star team for the fifth time. “I’ve never been with Pop for an All-Star Game. I’m happy. It would be nice to have him there.”
I expect San Antonio to have a huge offensive game in here, while they won't be concern in stopping Charlotte's transition plays, so I see this game being another very high scoring game between these two teams. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Over 202.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
I expect San Antonio to have a huge offensive game in here, while they won't be concern in stopping Charlotte's transition plays, so I see this game being another very high scoring game between these two teams. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Over 202.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 719 New Orleans Hornets @ 720 Utah Jazz
Projected Line: 185 points
This is a bad spot for New Orleans, who will be playing their third game in four nights, after having played a late game in LA last night against the Lakers. They will now play at Utah to face a Jazz team that has been horrible on defense lately, with six of their last eight opponents shooting 52% FG or better against them.
"We've allowed them to get too many drives to the basket, too many swings from strong side to weak side to get open looks," coach Corbin said. "Transition has not been the best for us, but we have been able to weather the storm (5-3 in that stretch). We've been able to score at a good pace ourselves. We've got to get better."
Utah was fulminated on their last game against Houston, especially on transitions. In fact, the Jazz has allowed 26, 13, 15 and 26 fast break points on their last four games, so if there is an area where their defense will be focused tonight is on this part of their defense, after getting crushed by the Rockets on their last game. The Hornets are coming from a big transition game against the Lakers, but they won't be as lucky tonight. Not only Utah will be putting a big effort on this area, as the Jazz are still #13 on transition defense with 1.13 PPP allowed for the season. They aren't a horrible defensive team on this kind of plays, they simply had a bad run and I expect them to bounce back tonight with some extra effort.
With the Jazz giving a low number of transition chances to New Orleans, combined with Utah's bounce back mode and New Orleans's bad spot, I expect the Hornets's offense to struggle tonight. On the other side, New Orleans's defense will have a better matchup that they had yesterday against the Lakers. First of all, both Mo Williams and Gordon Hayward are out. This is especially problematic for the Jazz's offense, as Hayward is the team's playmaker! The Lakers torched the Hornets's poor perimeter defense yesterday, but Utah's outside shooting is poor and they have just shot 32% 3pts on their last five games. New Orleans's defensive scheme is based in packing the paint and this will make them a tough matchup for the Jazz's offense.
The first two games of the season with super slow paced game and I expect the same thing to happen today. Utah is on bounce back mode, but New Orleans's defense has an edge over Utah's offense, especially without Gordon Hayward. Therefore, I expect Utah's bounce back to be performed primarily on defense tonight, turning this game into a low scoring game. So, I'll be taking the Under in here.
The first two games of the season with super slow paced game and I expect the same thing to happen today. Utah is on bounce back mode, but New Orleans's defense has an edge over Utah's offense, especially without Gordon Hayward. Therefore, I expect Utah's bounce back to be performed primarily on defense tonight, turning this game into a low scoring game. So, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 721 Houston Rockets @ 722 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: Denver by 1 point | 222 points
Houston is coming from a 45 points win at Utah, where they showed once again their recent offensive improvements. They are now playing very simple offensive basketball and the result of that is the fact that they committed just 12 and 6 turnovers on their last two games! Their damage was done on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and transitions. On the other hand, Utah was terrible on defense, while they tried to slow down the pace on offense to try to pound down low and the result of that was just 2 fast break points scored, with 3-3 FG on transitions. Something ridiculous. Denver is coming from a home win against Indiana, where the Pacers had a strong start, but they lost gas throughout the game due to their poor spot and Denver took advantage of that with 21 fast break points scored and 12-17 FG on transitions. The Nuggets also had a good outside game with 7-13 3pts and the only reason why Indiana made the game close at the end was a chokejob from Andre Iguodala, who missed 4 straight free throws!
Projected Line: Denver by 1 point | 222 points
Houston is coming from a 45 points win at Utah, where they showed once again their recent offensive improvements. They are now playing very simple offensive basketball and the result of that is the fact that they committed just 12 and 6 turnovers on their last two games! Their damage was done on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and transitions. On the other hand, Utah was terrible on defense, while they tried to slow down the pace on offense to try to pound down low and the result of that was just 2 fast break points scored, with 3-3 FG on transitions. Something ridiculous. Denver is coming from a home win against Indiana, where the Pacers had a strong start, but they lost gas throughout the game due to their poor spot and Denver took advantage of that with 21 fast break points scored and 12-17 FG on transitions. The Nuggets also had a good outside game with 7-13 3pts and the only reason why Indiana made the game close at the end was a chokejob from Andre Iguodala, who missed 4 straight free throws!
It's curious that Houston's last loss was at home against Denver and this loss was decisive for their amazing 3-games winning streak. I remember that after they lost against Denver, coach McHale didn't put extra pressure on the players and instead of focusing on the team's errors, they made them watch a video of the games where Houston had played very well early on the season. This really "inspired" the Rockets to have offensive ratings of 113.92, 127.95 and 140.13 on their last three games! Houston was overthinking on offense and now they are playing a much simpler and more effective style of basketball. With that, Houston committed just 12 and 6 turnovers on their last two games, while having incredible spot ups and transition numbers with 1.26 and 1.48 PPP respectively!
Of course Denver is in theory a tough matchup for Houston. Denver is 2-0 against them this season, with both wins being on the road. This is why I took Denver +3 twice in those games. However, Houston is now playing at their best, they are very confident and they have revenge on their minds after losing twice against the Nuggets. Denver's offense has been playing well lately, we know that they are excellent in scoring in transition with 25.3 fast break points per game on their last 3 games, while they have also averaged 52.7 points in the paint per game in these three contests. They are confident on their offense and they will certainly have a good offensive game today. However, looking at Houston's current momentum, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets win this game outright. I expect this game to be a very close one and with it being a super high scoring contest, therefore I'll be taking both the Rockets and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Over 217.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721 Houston Rockets (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 723 Los Angeles Lakers @ 724 Phoenix Suns
Projected Line: LA Lakers by 6 points
The Lakers were up by 98-80 with 5:30 to go in yesterday's game against New Orleans, but in the following two minutes and a half, New Orleans outscored them 16-2! Until that moment, the Lakers had dominated the whole game in both ends of the floor. Their offense with Kobe Bryant sharing the ball, together with Steve Nash and Pau Gasol, the LA team suddenly has an amazing ball movement. They ended the game with 34 assists and 39 FG made on a clear sign of excellent ball movement. The Lakers took advantage of New Orleans's poor perimeter and pick and rolls defense to torch them with pick and rolls, spot ups and cuts. The Lakers's defense was also excellent on halfcourt, with Dwight Howard dominating the paint and preventing their opponents from grabbing the offensive rebound. The Hornets shot 14-28 FG at the rim in another clear sign of Howard's defensive domination. The only problem that the Lakers's defense had yesterday was on transitions with New Orleans scoring 30 fast break points and shooting 12-17 FG on transitions. If we add that to the decision of benching Pau Gasol to put lousy defender Antawn Jamison down the stretch, these were the two reasons why the Hornets made the game close at the end.
For tonight's game, I expect the Lakers's offense to be too much for Phoenix's defense. With coach Hunter leading the team, Phoenix improved on their first two games with defensive ratings of 103.5 and 96.05, but they also played against the Kings's inconsistent offense and the Clippers without Chris Paul. But on their last two games at San Antonio and at Dallas, the Suns's defense had no chances. Phoenix is now using Michael Beasley as PF and they are now being completely outrebounded by their opponents. They are already #24 on rebounds with just 48.5% on rebound rate and on their last four games, they grabbed just 45.78% of the rebounds! The Lakers will dominate the Suns with their offense and rebounding, with Dwight Howard completely pounding the undersized Suns's frontcourt with ease.
The question in here will be really to know what Phoenix's offense will do against the Lakers's defense. The LA team has been closing very well the paint, so Phoenix will have to perform well on their outside shooting or in transitions to torch the Lakers's defense tonight. But while the Hornets have great shooters like Ryan Anderson, Phoenix doesn't have them, as they are indeed #29 on 3pts shooting with just 33.2%! So, it will be up for the Suns's decent transition offense (#9 in the league with 1.17 PPP) to do something in here, however only one offensive edge won't be enough for the Suns to stay competitive against this new look Lakers team. Therefore, the LA team should get a fairly comfortable win tonight.
The question in here will be really to know what Phoenix's offense will do against the Lakers's defense. The LA team has been closing very well the paint, so Phoenix will have to perform well on their outside shooting or in transitions to torch the Lakers's defense tonight. But while the Hornets have great shooters like Ryan Anderson, Phoenix doesn't have them, as they are indeed #29 on 3pts shooting with just 33.2%! So, it will be up for the Suns's decent transition offense (#9 in the league with 1.17 PPP) to do something in here, however only one offensive edge won't be enough for the Suns to stay competitive against this new look Lakers team. Therefore, the LA team should get a fairly comfortable win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723 Los Angeles Lakers (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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