NBA Free Premium Play 01/18: Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers

Houston  at Indiana

NBA - 807 Houston Rockets @ 808 Indiana Pacers Projected Line: 199 points Both teams are coming from losses. Indiana was on a poor spot and lost at Orlando, with the same happening to Houston, who lost down the stretch at Dallas, even after a late comeback. Indiana wasn't able to be efficient in defending the perimeter like they use to be and Orlando torched them with 12-21 3pts! Orlando used very well Glen Davis and Nikola Vucevic to give the team more space on the outside and that allowed them to have a big offensive game with 29 assists and just 12 turnovers! Indiana was sloppy on offense with 15 turnovers and they shot poorly from the outside with 2-17 3pts! Fatigue was definitely Indiana's main problem on this contest. On the other hand, Houston got crushed by Dallas's transition game that allowed them to perform a 19-0 run. James Harden had his worst performance of the season with 20 points on 23 shots taken, while Jeremy Lin was unimpressive until down the stretch, where he played well, helping the team to make a comeback that at the end wasn't enough for them to get the win over an improved Mavs team. This should be a battle between two very different teams in the league, as Houston leads the league in pace factor, while Indiana is only #27. Indiana is averaging a pace factor of 88.65, but they are averaging a pace of 90.85 on games against teams currently in the top 6 of pace factor, while Houston has a season pace factor of 95.43 and the fact only goes slightly down to 93.25 in games against teams currently in the bottom 6 of pace factor. Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively fast paced contest. Indiana is #1 on overall defense, they are #2 on 3pts allowed with 32.4%, while they are also #1 on paint defense by allowing just 34.2 ppg. However, there is an edge that Houston's offense will have over Indiana's defense: pick and roll ball handler plays! Houston's offense is #1 on this area with 0.91 PPP and this is exactly Indiana's weakest point on defense, something normal as coach Vogel protects Roy Hibbert a lot on the pick and rolls by telling him to stay near the basket. Indiana is a top 10 defensive team in pretty much every area on defense, but on pick and roll ball handler plays, they are just #20 while allowing 0.81 PPP! So, this is a good spot for Houston's offense, as they will have an edge on this kind of plays, where the Rockets are really lethal. The Pacers are a much better offensive team at home than on the road (105.9 offensive rates at home vs 99.30 on the road) and one of the main reasons for that is Paul Georges, who is averaging at home 47,4% FG, 47.7% 3pts and 20.9 ppg, while he is just averaging 37.2% FG, 26.2% 3pts and 13.9 ppg on the road! Indiana has a decent transition offense (#15 on efficiency) and against one of the worst transition defenses in the league, Indiana has a good spot to have an interesting offensive game tonight. The key edge in here will be on the down low with Indiana's post up game against a big edge over Houston's post up defense that is just #27 in the league, while averaging 0.90 PPP! I expect this game to be a high scoring one and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker