Projected Line: Brooklyn by 13 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
We have everything necessary in here for a Nets blowout win tonight. Minnesota continues being super shorthanded and this will be their third game without Nikola Pekovic and Alexey Shved. Even though they were competitive on their first two games without them, both games were played in special circumstances: they defeated a Rockets team on the worst spot of the season, as they were playing their fourth game in five days, while being also on a back to back spot and considering their lack of depth, Houston just couldn't be competitive against a rested Wolves team. On their last game against Atlanta, the Hawks came out super sluggish, while allowing 31 points and committing 8 turnovers in the first quarter. Minnesota took advantage of that and led the game by 54-36 right before half time. However, Atlanta woke up in the second half and crushed the Wolves. Atlanta dominated on the down low (21-22 FG at the rim!) and they also had a good perimeter shooting game, while showing that Minnesota's defense isn't that good. The Wolves shot 12-27 FG from 16-23 feet, on a very good performance for them, but the fact that a team that struggles so much on outside shooting attempted 27 field goals from the 16-23 feet area makes me believe that they are in clearly fade alert mode for tonight's contest.
Minnesota will face a healthy Brooklyn team that has a powerful frontcourt. Minnesota allowed 21-22 FG at the rim against Atlanta and 20-24 FG against the Clippers, so the Nets with Brook Lopez and with a solid frontcourt combo composed by Andray Blatche and Kris Humphries coming off the bench, Brooklyn has a great chance of pounding the Wolves down low tonight. Besides that, the Nets will also have a super size edge on the backcourt. Luke Ridnour won't be able to defend Joe Johnson, while Ricky Rubio, who is yet to be physically at 100%, will have to face Deron Williams. Minnesota's second unit only has the super undersized J.J. Barea as a backcourt player, so the Wolves's backcourt will be in deep trouble tonight as well.
The Wolves's offense has no flow right now and that's normal considering their current injuries. They shot a lot of tough contested shots at Atlanta and they ended the game with 27 FG attempts from 16-23 feet and 14 treys attempted! We are talking about 55% of their shots coming from +16 feet or further from the basket and if the Wolves when healthy are a terrible outside shooting team, let alone when they're shorthanded!
Of course there's always a chance for the Nets to overlook Minnesota tonight. However, this is a big revenge game for Brooklyn, who lost at home in humiliating fashion against the Wolves early on the season, in a game where Brooklyn was up by 22 points in the third quarter, just to absolutely collapse. With Brooklyn being focused, healthy and very confident under P.J. Carlesimo's leadership, I believe the Nets are going to crush a shorthanded Wolves team. Therefore, I'll be taking Brooklyn in here in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 707 Brooklyn Nets (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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