Projected Line: PK Line | 205 points
Dallas's backcourt has been playing extremely well lately with a great ball movement and on their last game against Phoenix, they dished 26 assists for just 13 turnovers, in a good 2.0 A/TO ratio. On the other hand, Portland has been committing a lot of turnovers lately, with 17.3 turnovers per game on their last 7 games! This has been creating a lot of easy transition points for their opponents and Dallas will certainly take advantage of that, as they are a great transition team by being #4 in the league with 1.21 PPP and being currently averaging 21.75 fast break points per game on their last 7 contests.
The Mavericks also has a much bigger depth on their roster than Portland and so, Dallas's gameplan in here will be to set a fast pace on this game to worn the Blazers's starters out. Dirk Nowitzki is slowly getting back to his game and he shot 7-14 FG against Phoenix on the team's last game. With him, Chris Kaman and Elton Brand, the Mavericks have a solid post up game that will explore Portland's poor interior defense. Portland will have an edge on Damian Lillard against Dallas's guards and the truth is that Dallas is just #23 on pick and roll ball handler defense. I believe that this will be a 50/50 game, so I see Dallas having some great value tonight, as they are the underdog in here. I also expect this game to be a fast paced one with both teams having nice edges on offense, therefore I'll be also taking the Over on this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 201.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Dallas Mavericks (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Dallas Mavericks (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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