NBA Free Premium Play 01/25: Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Milwaukee  at Cleveland

NBA - 807 Milwaukee Bucks @ 808 Cleveland Cavaliers Projected Line: 201 points Cleveland's trade with Memphis was actually good for the Cavaliers, as they got Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington, who will already play tonight. This means that Luke Walton won't be the team's only frontcourt player coming off the bench anymore, while Wayne Ellington is a solid role player. Cleveland has in Kyrie Irving a superstar when he is healthy and he showed that in the team's last game against Boston, who happens to have a very good backcourt defense. The same doesn't happen with the Bucks, as Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings are poor individual defenders. Cleveland's only offensive problem against the Celtics was their outside shooting, as they shot just 2-12 3pts and 3-15 FG in spot up plays. C.J. Miles, who is one of the few good outside shooters of the Cavaliers, will play tonight, so Cleveland should improve on this area tonight. Cleveland's offense has been based on isolation plays, pick and roll ball handler plays, mostly thanks to Kyrie Irving, and cuts. Milwaukee's defense is actually a top unit on these three plays (#4 on isolations, #6 in pick and roll ball handler and #1 in cuts), however Milwaukee has been facing some poor offensive teams lately that have been struggling for a while: Phoenix, Portland and Philadelphia. Milwaukee's offense is certainly improving and Ersan Ilyasova is coming from two excellent games. Mike Dunleavy is coming off the bench and he is contributing with some good shooting, while Monta Ellis is coming from a great game against the Sixers, where he had 7-10 FG, 18 points and 10 assists! Milwaukee has been showing good dynamic on attacking the basket and with a very nice transition game. They will face some nice edges over the Cavaliers's defense, as Cleveland is just #25 on transition defense (1.20 PPP allowed and 16, 17, 15, 21 and 10 fast break points allowed L5 games). The Bucks will also have an edge on pick and roll ball handler plays, as Cleveland's defense is just #23 on this area, as Irving is still far from being a good defender. Milwaukee's frontcourt should also take advantage of Cleveland's poor interior defense, with Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders being in good form to take advantage of that. The Bucks are already #2 in the league in pace factors with 93.4, while Cleveland is averaging a pace factor of 94.73 in games against teams in the top 10 in terms of pace. In fact, Cleveland is also #8 in pace factor with 91.9, therefore I expect this game to be a fast paced game, where both teams will have a good offensive game tonight. So, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker