NBA - 703 Sacramento Kings @ 704 New Orleans Hornets
Projected Line: 195 points | New Orleans by 12 points
Projected Line: 195 points | New Orleans by 12 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Sacramento is coming from a road win at Charlotte, where the Kings struggled on defense against Charlotte's pick and rolls and transition plays. The Bobcats only didn't win the game because of their poor spot up shooting and a terrible FT% efficiency. Sacramento had the edge down low with their frontcourt and their guards penetrating well, for a combined effort of 23-34 FG at the rim! However, Sacramento didn't have good outside numbers, in a clear proof that they couldn't take advantage of Charlotte's terrible perimeter defense due to their poor outside shooting skills: 4-13 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-18 3pts.
New Orleans is coming from a home loss against Golden State, where the Warriors took advantage of New Orleans's poor spot up defense to crush them. Klay Thompson had a season high 29 points, while shooting 11-19 FG. Golden State shot 11-21 FG on spot ups, 5-8 FG on off screens and 10-22 3pts! Jarrett Jack also took advantage of the Hornets's poor pick and roll defense for a great performance against his former team. Both defenses struggled and lacked intensity. However, it was incredible to see the self-confidence New Orleans's offense currently has. Al-Farouq Aminu, Robin Lopez, their bench as well, everybody shooting well with no hesitation! New Orleans's offense did very well on pick and roll ball handler plays with 7-15 FG, but what made them lose the game was their poor free throw shooting with 13-23 FT!
New Orleans will have the same edge on pick and rolls today that Charlotte had against Sacramento, as the Kings are #30 on pick and roll ball handler defense by allowing 0.93 PPP! New Orleans is currently shooting with a lot of confidence and the Hornets are one of the teams with the highest volume on pick and rolls in the league. The Hornets's season numbers on pick and rolls ball handler plays aren't great (#26 with 0.72 PPP), however since Eric Gordon returned to the lineup, their numbers improved to 0.85 PPP over their last 10 games and 0.88 PPP over their last 5 games!
Charlotte didn't beat Sacramento due to their poor free throw shooting, but also due to the lack of a solid play from a big man. Now against the Hornets, the same won't happen, as New Orleans has a solid frontcourt with Anthony Davis, Robin Lopez, Ryan Anderson and Jason Smith, so the Kings's interior defense will struggle today. Sacramento will set their regular fast pace and they will have some edge over the Hornets's poor transition defense, while DeMarcus Cousins will have a nice game as well. However, the Kings won't take advantage of the Hornets's poor perimeter defense, in the way that Golden State's great outside shooting did. I expect an easy win for the New Orleans today, so I'll take them in here on a Double Dime Play. As I expect a high scoring game in here, I'll be also taking the Over in here on a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 704 New Orleans Hornets (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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