NBA Free Premium Play 12/31: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers

Cleveland  at Indiana

NBA - 503 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 504 Indiana Pacers Play #2 Indiana is coming from another nice win this time against Brooklyn by 105-91. Their offense has been excellent lately with offense rates of 119.13, 114.21, 105.85 and 116.36 over their last four games. This improvement on offense is due to a better efficiency on post ups, but especially on the outside shooting where they are excellent with 39.2% 3pts over their last 10 games, the #5 best mark in the league. Looking at Cleveland's defensive ratings lately (105.06, 107.34, 124.74, 125.21, 106.08, 113.77, 118.70, 108.12, 109.48 and 103.82 on their last 10 games), it's hard not to imagine Indiana having another huge offensive game today. The Cavaliers are using a 3-guards lineup with regularity lately and on their last game against the Warriors, they used Kyrie Irving for 40 minutes, Jarrett Jack for 34 minutes and Dion Waiters for 39 minutes. Of course that with such lineup, their defense is struggling. So, the key in here will be to know how the Cavaliers's offense will play against the Pacers's elite defense. Cleveland is now playing faster due to Andrew Bynum being out of the rotation and they have been improving on offense a lot lately, especially on pick and roll ball handler plays, with Kyrie Irving showing his best basketball, while Jarrett Jack is finally waking up after a slow start of the season. Thanks to this, the Cavaliers are always #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.89 PPP! In comparison, the Nets are playing on a similar way as the Cavaliers with small guards and they had 8-15 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays against Indiana last Saturday for a nice 1.04 PPP! Therefore, I expect the Cavaliers to have a similar or even better outcome today on offense. On the last game between these two teams, Indiana won by 89-74, in a game where George Hill didn't play and Cleveland's offense was still a complete mess. Therefore, that was a game played on the early season where Indiana was winning their games via defense. Things are now different and they are on a 4-games streaks where they have scored 103 points or more. I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 197 @ -110 /  1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/31: Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics

Atlanta  at Boston

NBA - 501 Atlanta Hawks @ 502 Boston Celtics Play #1 Since Al Horford got injured, Atlanta's offense started being super perimeter based. On their last game at Orlando, Atlanta had a volume of 24% on pick and roll ball handler plays and 27% on spot ups. However, the Hawks are expected to find some problems today against Boston's decent perimeter defense that is #14 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #4 on spot up defense. On the other hand, Boston's offense is using a lot of pick and roll ball handler plays lately as well. However, they also keep having a nice post up, as Boston has a quite big backcourt. These are areas where Atlanta's defense is struggling. The aggressiveness of Boston's guards will be a huge problem for Atlanta's backcourt defense, as both Louis Williams and Kyle Korver won't be able to prevent the Celtics's dribble penetrations With the Hawks being so perimeter oriented and the Celtics having some nice edges on offense for today, I believe Boston will be able to pick up a comfortable win today, as they are also #5 in the league on 3pts defense with 33.8% allowed. Therefore, I'm taking Boston today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Boston Celtics (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Daily Message 12/31

Daily Message 12/31:

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 188-161-6 ATS | +44.35 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 188-161-6 ATS | +20.31 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 63-50-3 ATS | +24.70 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 63-50-3 ATS | +11.50 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)
NFL 2013 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Washington (+3) WIN

Over DET/WAS 202.5 WIN

Dallas (+4) WIN

Charlotte (+3) PUSH

Under LAC/PHX 210 WIN

LA Clippers (-7.5) LOSS

Daily Message:

We really needed a good day in the NBA after back to back subpar days, and we accomplished that by going 4-1-1 ATS last night. I'm still dumbfounded with the way the Suns just killed the Clippers last night but that's the NBA…

Moving on for today, I'm looking forward to finish this 2013 year in high note! We have a solid card w/ 8 games to work with some early games as well!

We ended the NFL Regular Season with a 4-3 weekend, with our Double Dime Play being easily cashed as well. I changed my handicapping way this weekend on the NFL in order to focus more on key lines and spots that I then took advantage with three winning teasers. We ended the NFL Regular Season with a 56% ATS record and with a 63% ATS over the last 62 NFL Plays. It's Playoffs time!!

Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

JUST CLICK HERE

NBA Premium Card 12/31

NBA - 701 Washington Wizards @ 702 Detroit Pistons

Plays #1 & 2

Washington will always be a tough match up for Detroit due to the fact that they are a decent team in protecting the basket, while they have been a good jump shooting team on offense, an area where Detroit's defense struggles. This was basically what happened on the last game between these two teams. The Pistons's front court was well defended with Greg Monroe shooting just 6-9 FG and even though he was efficient, he could just attempt nine shots. Andre Drummond shot just 2-5 FG, while Josh Smith shot 2-7 FG, before being benched on the second half. The Pistons as a team ended that game with just 1-4 FG on post up plays, so they would need a great outside shooting game to be competitive, but they were horrible with 7-38 FG from +10 feet shots for a horrible 18%! 

On the other hand, the Wizards's offense took advantage of Detroit's bad team help defense on the perimeter. John Wall was aggressive and assisted help his teammates to help his team to end the game with a great 34 assists mark, something that help them ending the game with a nice 9-19 3pts! The Wizards also had a surprising edge on the boards battle and everything was very easy for them. For tonight's game, both teams aren't on a back to back spot and the match up edge will be the same for the Wizards. Of course Detroit will come more aggressive this time around and they'll win the boards battle, but the rest is maintained for this game, so I believe the Wizards have great value as underdogs tonight. I also believe both teams will have good offensive outcomes in here tonight, so I'll be taking both the Wizards and the Over on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 202,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Washington Wizards (+3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Minnesota Timberwolves

Play #3

Dallas is coming from a very easy win at Chicago, something obtained mostly via their perimeter game, as they had little volume on the inside, with just 31% of their shots coming from 9 feet or closer to the basket. The Mavericks put a lot of focus on their pick and roll game which was excellent and destroyed the Bulls's defense! Dallas shot 10-16 FG (1.17 PPP) on pick and roll ball handler plays and 8-12 FG (1.50 PPP) on pick and roll roll man plays! Defensively, Dallas naturally struggled in protecting the basket by allowing 19-27 (70%) FG at the rim, with Joakim Noah (8-11 FG) and Taj Gibson (5-7 FG) dominating down low, but that wasn't enough for Chicago, as their outside shooting didn't make any damage.

The Mavericks will now play at Minnesota against a team which is just #21 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense and #8 on pick and roll roll man defense, so Dallas will have a nice edge on offense tonight. The Wolves will have Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love down low to try to pound Dallas's poor interior defense, but the Mavericks are now showing a bit more defensive cohesion lately as they are now starting Samuel Dalembert at the center position, while Brandan Wright is now healthy. 

On the first two games between these two teams this season, Minnesota had a slight edge on rebounding, but the truth is that Dallas missed Vince Carter on the first game and Jose Calderon on the second game, while Brandan Wright didn't play both games. These three players are now healthy and ready to play tonight, so Dallas will have a better spot to face Minnesota this time around. I believe the Mavericks edge on pick and rolls will make them highly competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Dallas Mavericks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/30: Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons

Washington  at Detroit

NBA - 701 Washington Wizards @ 702 Detroit Pistons Plays #1 & 2 Washington will always be a tough match up for Detroit due to the fact that they are a decent team in protecting the basket, while they have been a good jump shooting team on offense, an area where Detroit's defense struggles. This was basically what happened on the last game between these two teams. The Pistons's front court was well defended with Greg Monroe shooting just 6-9 FG and even though he was efficient, he could just attempt nine shots. Andre Drummond shot just 2-5 FG, while Josh Smith shot 2-7 FG, before being benched on the second half. The Pistons as a team ended that game with just 1-4 FG on post up plays, so they would need a great outside shooting game to be competitive, but they were horrible with 7-38 FG from +10 feet shots for a horrible 18%! On the other hand, the Wizards's offense took advantage of Detroit's bad team help defense on the perimeter. John Wall was aggressive and assisted help his teammates to help his team to end the game with a great 34 assists mark, something that help them ending the game with a nice 9-19 3pts! The Wizards also had a surprising edge on the boards battle and everything was very easy for them. For tonight's game, both teams aren't on a back to back spot and the match up edge will be the same for the Wizards. Of course Detroit will come more aggressive this time around and they'll win the boards battle, but the rest is maintained for this game, so I believe the Wizards have great value as underdogs tonight. I also believe both teams will have good offensive outcomes in here tonight, so I'll be taking both the Wizards and the Over on this contest. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 202,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Washington Wizards (+3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NFL Premium Card 12/29

NFL Week 17 - 303 Green Bay Packers @ 304 Chicago Bears

Play #1

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 303/304 Under 51 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NFL Week 17 - 307 Cleveland Browns @ 308 Pittsburgh Steelers

Play #2

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 308 Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NFL Week 17 - 311 Baltimore Ravens @ 312 Cincinnati Bengals

Play #3

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 311/312 Under 43.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 17 - 329 Kansas City Chiefs @ 330 San Diego Chargers

Play #4

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 330 San Diego Chargers (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NFL Week 17 - 307 Cleveland Browns @ 308 Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Week 17 - 329 Kansas City Chiefs @ 330 San Diego Chargers

Play #5

****7-Points 2-Team Teaser****

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

NOTE: both the Steelers and the Chargers are my two favorite plays of the day. Instead of going w/ them separately Top Plays, I'm teasing them just to "win" the games

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 308 Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) x 330 San Diego Chargers (-1) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

NFL Week 17 - 303 Green Bay Packers @ 304 Chicago Bears
NFL Week 17 - 305 Houston Texans @ 306 Tennessee Titans

Play #6

****7-Points 2-Team Teaser****

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 304 Chicago Bears (+10) x 306 Tennessee Titans (PK) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5 Dimes

NFL Week 17 - 323 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 324 New Orleans SaintsNFL Week 17 - 307 Cleveland Browns @ 308 New England Patriots

Play #7

****6.5-Points 2-Team Teaser****

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 308 New England Patriots (-0.5) x 324 New Orleans Saints (-4) @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline

NBA Premium Card 12/29

NBA - 801 Atlanta Hawks @ 802 Orlando Magic

Play #1

NOTE: no detailed write up for today, back tomorrow, thanks! 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 803 Golden State Warriors @ 804 Cleveland Cavaliers

Play #2

NOTE: no detailed write up for today, back tomorrow, thanks! 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Golden State Warriors (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 805 Sacramento Kings @ 806 San Antonio Spurs

Play #3

NOTE: no detailed write up for today, back tomorrow, thanks! 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Under 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 807 Houston Rockets @ 808 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #4

NOTE: no detailed write up for today, back tomorrow, thanks! 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Under 208.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Card 12/28

NBA - 501 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 502 Boston Celtics

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Both teams are not playing well as of late w/ both losing their last 3 games so there will be some sense of urgency on the court today.

The Celtics had 5 days to rest and think about their recent losses. For me it was clear that the main culprit of those 3 losses was their bad defense, as they have allowed their opponents to have 112, 115 and 114 Defensive Rtg. There were 2 big factors: 1) Bad transition defense by allowing 22, 23 and 15 fast break points and 2) bad interior defense by allowing 52, 44 and 50 points in the paint, even though I understand those bad numbers b/c they have faced DET, IND and WAS – all teams with skilled big men. Head Coach Stevens surely addressed those flaws during this long break.

For today, I expect the Celtics to bounce back defensively as the Cavaliers are a “good” matchup for their defense. The Cavs are coming from a home loss against ATL in which they really didn’t feed the post in that game. It was all about Kyrie Irving & Waiters doing work on the perimeter! The problem is that the Celtics actually have a pretty good perimeter defense and Avery Bradley will be a tough matchup for Irving. Note that the Celtics are a top 10 team defending P&R’s ball handler plays and actually they are ranked #4 vs. spot up plays. With Irving having a tough time to create offense, the Cavs don’t generate the proper looks to torch BOS defense – in 58 minutes of action against ATL in the last game, CLE had only 22 assists for a subpar 45% assist/rate%!

CLE defense couldn’t stop ATL big men as expected as Millsap and Horford combined to shoot 20-34 from the field – almost a 60% FG mark! CLE’s frontline really struggles defending skilled big men that can shoot from the outside. The good news is that the Celtics don’t have such big men on their roster. They have more traditional post up players, so I expect CLE to bounce back defensively as well today.

We are dealing with an early game between two desperate teams that will have some problems to create easy points and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here as my Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 196.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 505 Brooklyn Nets @ 506 Indiana Pacers

Play #2

I think we have some nice value w/ Over in this contest…

The Nets were able to easily dismantle the Bucks last night, so they could manage the minutes of their key players as only Joe Johnson played more than 32 minutes. This is important because I would have pass if we were dealing with a “tired” Nets team.

Jason Kidd changed their starting lineup last night by inserting Shaun Livingston and Paul Pierce while playing KG @ center. However, regardless of who plays tonight, the Nets are still an awful perimeter defensive team as they are slow (and OLD) to rotate on the wings. The Pacers have been playing some decent offensive basketball as of late with 3 straight games scoring +100 points and I expect them to torch the Nets from long range. Note that in the last week’s h2h, the Pacers crushed the Nets @BKN w/ Paul George shooting 10-19 FG & Stevenson shooting 10-16 FG – not a coincidence!

The difference for tonight is that I expect the Nets to be respectable offensively. I don’t know if Kidd will repeat the same lineup for tonight but if he doesn’t, I expect Mirza Teletovic to start @ PF, so the Nets will play small ball against IND.

In the last h2h, the Nets scored only 86 points against IND but note that it was their first game without Lopez so they weren’t “prepared” to adjust so quickly and they were facing the best defensive team in the league. Even Paul Pierce was awful w/ 0-7 FG in just 15 minutes of action! The Nets will surprise a bit the Pacers with their new lineup on the offensive end and with IND scoring with some ease against them, I expect this contest to a relatively high scoring game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Charlotte Bobcats @ 510 Atlanta Hawks

Play #3

The injury of Al Horford is a major blow for this Hawks team especially on the offensive end, and I think we will notice it tonight. ATL is coming from a double-OT win @CLE in which Teague, Korver and Millsap logged major minutes, so this isn’t exactly a good physical spot for them either.

CHA defense has been great all season long and after a 3-game stretch in which they were subpar, they “bounced” back last night and held OKC to just 89 points. Horford’s presence tonight would be a nightmare for CHA because Big Al Jefferson isn’t mobile enough to defend Horford when he goes “outside”. Note that in the first h2h game between these two teams, he was the MVP of the game w/ a great stats line of 9-15 FG, 6-7 FT, a game high 24 points and even 5 assists.

Without him, ATL will start Elton Brand and Brand is more valuable on the defensive end for the team. This is important because Brand will defend Al Jefferson on the post and it won’t be easy for Big Al to score down low. The Bobcats are coming from a tough loss vs. OKC last night w/ another bad offensive performance to show it. ATL defense will be focused in shutting down Kemba Walker and they have Jeff Teague as a capable defensive player for the job.

My Fair line for this contest is 190 points, so therefore, we have the proper edge to play the OVER in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 511 New Orleans Pelicans @ 512 Houston Rockets

Play #4 & 5

The Rockets are simply a nightmare matchup for this Pelican’s defense…

NO defense is ranked #19 defending P&R ball handler; #28 vs. spot up defense & #24 vs. transition. With such subpar numbers in these 3 key areas I would like to wish some luck for them because they’ll need against the Rockets offense.

Jason Smith is injured and Head Coach Monty Williams is using Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis in the starting lineup. Because they are shorthanded on the front, Ryan Anderson was “forced” to play 40minutes last night!

The key question for this contest: Who will defend Dwight Howard?!? Howard is coming from an awful game against MEM in which he played just 18 minutes, had just 1-5 FG and committed 5 personal fouls…surely he will be fired up for tonight and the Pelicans simply don’t have player on the roster that could slow him down.

NO will be forced to double Howard down low and so the Rockets shooters will enjoy having some uncontested wide looks on the perimeter. NO is coming from a game in which they faced a terrible shooting team (note that Andre Miller, Nate Robinson, and Randy Foye finished with zero points and one assist… each), to play one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the league while playing in the second leg of a b2b spot. It will be too much for them and I expect the Rockets to crush them in a run and gun affair.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 512 Houston Rockets (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 515 Denver Nuggets @ 516 Memphis Grizzlies

Play #6

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Nuggets are really struggling right now especially on the offensive end and I expect MEM to take advantage of it tonight.

Ty Lawson isn’t yet @100% and he struggled once against last night @NO w/ just 3-12 FG & 8 TO’s. Without his ability to drive to the basket and create looks for his teammates, the Nuggets are really a poor offensive team because they don’t have the proper shooting ability to be an efficient squad. To make things even worse, their frontcourt is a bit banged up right now w/ Faried and Arthur nursing some injuries.

On the other end, MEM is simply crushing their opponents on the boards! I have them w/ an incredible 57.8% reb/rate% in the last 5 games in which they grabbed 18, 22, 13, 11 and 20 offensive boards! Zach Randolph will dominate the game down low vs. hobbled Faried or an undersized JJ Hickson while I expect MEM to dominate the glass once again.

MEM is coming from a game @HOU in which they felt “robbed” with the way the referees handed 25 free throws to James Harden, so I expect them to be fired up. Mike Conley, like Ty Lawson is struggling w/ injuries but the X factor for this contest will be on the frontcourt w/ a rested and fired up MEM team vs. tired and struggling DEN team.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 516 Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 521 Miami Heat @ 522 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #7 & 8

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Heat isn’t used to play @b2b games (only 4 b2b games) but so far they have played @PHI, @CHA, @ORL and @DET. As you can see, we are not talking about “premium” competition at all! To make things even worse, last night’s game @SAC went to OT, so we had Chalmers playing 44min, LeBron 44min or Bosh playing 35min. We have Chris Andersen banged up as well…

The biggest problem for the Heat tonight is related w/ REBOUNDING! POR is ranked #2 in the league in Off. Reb/rate% w/ 30.0% and they will face the Heat who everyone knows that they struggle on this department. This is even more problematic if Birdman doesn’t play tonight.

POR is a great team in closing out the shooters (one of the best 3pts defensive teams) so I expect them to be decent defending the perimeter as well.

On the other side, POR offense has been great but they were facing some poor perimeter defensive teams like PHI, DET, CLE, MIN or even NO so their offensive numbers are a bit underrated for this contest. MIA defense is #1 in the league defending P&R Ball handler plays so I expect them to hold POR offense in some degree.

I’m playing the Blazers tonight for a safe win w/ a strong second half while this contest won’t be a fun game to watch at all!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 521/522 Under 208.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/28: Charlotte Bobcats @ Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte  at Atlanta

NBA - 509 Charlotte Bobcats @ 510 Atlanta Hawks Play #3 The injury of Al Horford is a major blow for this Hawks team especially on the offensive end, and I think we will notice it tonight. ATL is coming from a double-OT win @CLE in which Teague, Korver and Millsap logged major minutes, so this isn’t exactly a good physical spot for them either. CHA defense has been great all season long and after a 3-game stretch in which they were subpar, they “bounced” back last night and held OKC to just 89 points. Horford’s presence tonight would be a nightmare for CHA because Big Al Jefferson isn’t mobile enough to defend Horford when he goes “outside”. Note that in the first h2h game between these two teams, he was the MVP of the game w/ a great stats line of 9-15 FG, 6-7 FT, a game high 24 points and even 5 assists. Without him, ATL will start Elton Brand and Brand is more valuable on the defensive end for the team. This is important because Brand will defend Al Jefferson on the post and it won’t be easy for Big Al to score down low. The Bobcats are coming from a tough loss vs. OKC last night w/ another bad offensive performance to show it. ATL defense will be focused in shutting down Kemba Walker and they have Jeff Teague as a capable defensive player for the job. My Fair line for this contest is 190 points, so therefore, we have the proper edge to play the UNDER in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Daily Message 12/28

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 181-152-3 ATS | +54.25 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 181-152-3 ATS | +24.41 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 59-47-3 ATS | +21.60 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 59-47-3 ATS | +9.80 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)
NFL 2013 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Under ORL/DET 204 Triple Dime WIN

Over MIN/WAS 206 Triple Dime WIN

Orlando (+4.5) WIN

Under CHA/OKC 199 WIN

Milwaukee (+4.5) LOSS

Sacramento (+6.5) WIN

Golden State (-6.5) WIN

Daily Message:

Last night was one of the best days for me I can remember for a long time. It is rare for me to find a play w/ the proper edge to rate them as a Triple Dime Play, but last night we were able to release two such plays, fortunately, both of them cashed. We finished the day 6-1 for a tremendous net profit of +18.7un in my 3-4-5 MM system (or +8.9un in 1-2-3MM), and we are now consolidating our profit for the season!

We are literally killing the books in this month of December as we are 71-39 ATS (a 65% clip) in the last 110 NBA Plays.

Moving on for today, as usual we an unusual big card to work w/ 12 games on the board so let's do it! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

JUST CLICK HERE

NBA Premium Card 12/27

NBA - 803 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 804 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #1

Oklahoma City is coming from an easy win in NY against the Knicks on Christmas Day. Carmelo Anthony's absence helped the Thunder in crushing the Knicks, but even if Melo had played, Oklahoma City would eventually still easily win that game due to the Knicks' poor perimeter that would be heavily explored by the Thunder's athleticism. On the other side, Charlotte is coming from a tough home win against the lowly Bucks, something that isn't a good sign. The Bobcats' offense was efficient with Kemba Walker shooting 10-22 FG and Al Jefferson 12-23 FG, but note that Charlotte shot just 43.4% FG, while they shot 10-17 3pts! This is something extremely rare for Charlotte, a team that has been struggling on their outside shooting all season long. On defense, the Bobcats struggled, with a very lazy transition defense that allowed Milwaukee to shoot 10-17 FG (1.14 PPP) on transitions, while scoring 14 fast break points. Therefore, after the game, their coach Steve Clifford wasn't happy with this at all:

All the way back to the summer, the Bobcats coach Steve Clifford called transition defense his “non-negotiable.” So after a break for Christmas, Clifford put getting back on defense atop his team’s “to-do” list at practice.

“We worked on it today – just getting our defense organized.” Steve Clifford said Thursday. “When we’ve gotten back, for the most part, our defense has been good. The other night we did a poor job of that. So today we watched film, worked on it, and hopefully it will get better.”

Charlotte's offense will definitely have problems tonight. They need big games from Kemba Walker on the pick and rolls and Al Jefferson on the post ups to be efficient, but Oklahoma City is #4 on pick and roll ball handler defense, while they also have a good rim defense, so Charlotte would need another miraculous great outside shooting performance tonight, something close to impossible to happen twice in a row for such a poor team on this area. On the other side, the Bobcats will be definitely more focused on their transition defense tonight. It keeps being very hard to score points down low against them, as they are allowing less than 60% FG at the rim this season. Therefore, the Thunder will also need to have a sharp outside shooting game tonight to have a big offensive performance in here, something tough to do, especially as they are without Russell Westbrook once again. I expect a relatively low scoring contest in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 801 Detroit Pistons @ 802 Orlando Magic

Plays #2 & 5

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

***ADDED PLAY***

All of Detroit's last 10 games went over, but this match up will be very tough for their offense. Orlando's defensive scheme is build to protect the basket, while giving space on the perimeter because of that. Note that Orlando is #4 in the league on points in the paint allowed with 37.2 points allowed, while they are allowing their opponents to shoot worse than 60% FG at the rim this season. They are also being a good defensive rebounding team, as they are #4 in the league with just a 23.6% opponent offensive rebound rate. On the other hand, the Magic are currently #1 on post up defense in the league right now with just 0.69 PPP allowed! Orlando lost all their last three games, but they had good numbers in protecting the rim in those games against Utah, Sacramento and the NY Knicks, with just 24, 34 and 26 points in the paint allowed. The problem was their inability in defending the perimeter, as they allowed 8-21, 12-23 and 10-21 3pts in those three games.

Fortunately for Orlando, Detroit's offense is one-dimensional, as they need to score near the basket badly with Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith. They are averaging 54.8 points in the paint over their last 10 games, but I expect them to struggle tonight against Orlando's good interior defense. On the other side, Orlando's offense will also have some problems tonight, especially with Nikola Vucevic being defended by Andre Drummond. Detroit's perimeter defense is the weakest link of their defense, but Orlando is currently struggling right now on their long range shooting with a combined of 59-167 (35%) 3pts on their last 8 games.The Magic are also struggling a bit on their ball movement, with just 17.8 assists per game on their last 10 contests. I expect this game to be a low scoring one, as both teams will definitely struggle on offense tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Triple Dime Play! Considering all the issues that Detroit's offense will have tonight, I also see some value on Orlando as home underdogs tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here as well on a Single Dime Play.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Orlando Magic (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/27: Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets

Milwaukee  vs Brooklyn

NBA - 805 Milwaukee Bucks @ 806 Brooklyn Nets Play #6 Brooklyn are screwed without Brook Lopez in both ends of the floor. They can't generate easy looks down low with just 32.5 points scored in the paint on their last 7 games, while their outside shooting is just too streaky. They had two monster games regarding outside shooting against Philadelphia in both occasions, but they shot just 6-26 and 5-17 3pts on their last two games. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are struggling, the team has no transition game and so, their offense is super stagnant right now. On the other side, Milwaukee is becoming more and more competitive. In fact, three of their last four games went to overtime! They are showing better offense, with more consistent rotations, something that is allowing them to commit less turnovers per game. I believe Milwaukee will be a tough match up for Brooklyn's defense. The Bucks has been led by Brandon Knight's solid play and so, Deron Williams will have to work on defense on this match up tonight. Milwaukee has some good shooters like O.J. Mayo and Caron Butler and the return of Ersan Ilyasova will also give them some extra outside shooting, an area where Brooklyn's defense struggles. One of Milwaukee's main problems this season has been their awful defensive rebounding. Larry Sanders's return tonight will give them some help, even though he will play just 20 minutes. Another fact that will help them in here is the fact that Brooklyn is just #25 on offensive rebounding with a 23.3% offensive rebound rate, so the Bucks' poor defensive rebounding won't be explored in here. The Nets won at Milwaukee by 90-82 on the last game between these two teams, but that was due to Brook Lopez, who dominated with 11-13 FG, 10-11 FT and 32 points in 40 minutes! Without him, I expect the Nets to struggle and so, I'll be taking Milwaukee in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Milwaukee Bucks (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/27: Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings

Miami  at Sacramento

NBA - 815 Miami Heat @ 816 Sacramento Kings Play #4 Miami managed their lead at LA against the Lakers on Christmas Day without much trouble. Dwyane Wade was the most used player from the Heat with 39 minutes, while Lebron James played 36 minutes and Chris Bosh 31 minutes. The Heat will play an important game tomorrow at Portland, so considering how easily they crushed Sacramento by 122-103 at home a week ago, I believe this is a clear look ahead spot for Miami tonight. On that game played last Friday, Miami allowed the Kings to shoot 58.1% FG! Weirdly, Sacramento didn't win the boards battle, but the truth is that with both teams shooting close to 60% FG, it was hard for any team to grab a lot of offensive rebounds. Chris Anderson was one of the key players on that game, as even though he played just 21 minutes, he helped his team in preventing the Kings from dominating the boards. Anderson is out for tonight's game and so, Sacramento has definitely a good spot to crush the boards tonight and get some extra possessions to make this game close. Sacramento is coming from a home loss against the Pelicans, where they were terrible spot on pick and roll ball handler, spot up and transition defense. It appears that their coach Mike Malone laid a smackdown on the players after the game and the truth is that since the Rudy Gay trade, Sacramento had barely time to practice, as they were in the middle of a road trip. They had finally 3 days off to rest and regroup before tonight's game and so, I expect the Kings to have a decent bounce back on defense in here. With the Kings being better on defense, getting the upper hand on the rebounds and with Miami on a look ahead game, while not using Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen and Chris Anderson, I see good value in taking Sacramento tonight. So, I'm taking the Kings plus the points in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 816 Sacramento Kings (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Card 12/26

NBA - 503 Memphis Grizzlies @ 504 Houston Rockets

Play #2

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

We have great value on the Under due to the kind of match up and pace that this game will have. Memphis keeps trying to adjust after Marc Gasol's injury, but their biggest problem right now is that Mike Conley is also clearly banged up and playing very far from his best conditions. Conley is coming from two good match ups against the NY Knicks and Utah, two terrible perimeter defenses, but he was only able to shoot 4-18 FG and 2-11 FG respectively. Even though they are normally a very poor outside shooting team, Memphis actually shot 11-20 3pts on their last game against the Jazz, but that was due to a stellar performance from their second unit, as their starters struggled from the perimeter once again with 3-10 3pts. This great performance from the second unit was a rare one and I heavily doubt that they will be able to repeat such performance tonight. 

Houston is coming from an excellent win at San Antonio yesterday, but of course that took a massive effort from them. Three of their starters played 40 minutes and therefore, a letdown in here seems to be a quite possible outcome. James Harden was key player yesterday, but he should struggle tonight on a tough matchup for him, as he will face Tony Allen, who always defends Harden very well. Now on a back to back spot for a still banged up Harden, who played 42 minutes yesterday, I expect Allen to do once again a good job defending Harden tonight.

But the main reason why I see excellent value on the Under tonight is the potential slow pace of this game. I don't know if it was on purpose or not (perhaps it's just because of Patrick Beverley's absence due to injury), but the Rockets played at a slower pace on their last two games. On the other side, Memphis is last in the league on pace and they are playing slower and slower as the games go by. Memphis's game plan for tonight will be the usual: avoid running the court as much as possible and use Houston's lack of frontcourt depth to pound them down low. However, I don't expect the Grizzlies to be that successful on pounding the Rockets on the down low, as Houston's post up defense is also improving as of late. I expect a slow paced game in here with both teams struggling on offense, so I'll be taking the Under in here on a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 199,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/26: Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trailblazers

LA Clippers  at Portland

NBA - 507 Los Angeles Clippers @ 508 Portland Trailblazers Play #3 I know that the Clippers will play a back to back game, so tiredness might be a factor in here. However, considering how they lost yesterday's game at Golden State with Blake Griffin being unfairly ejected early in the fourth quarter, I believe the LA team will be fired up for tonight with the bounce back mindset easily overcoming the tired spot. I have no problems in admitting that the Clippers would have won last night's game without Blake's ejection, making me lose the play I had on the Warriors. The Clippers are a bad match up for the Blazers. I understand that the Blazers have playing great and their offensive strength with LaMarcus Aldridge and their outside shooters is terrific! However, the bad news for Portland is that the Clippers are the best 3pts defense in the league with just 32.4% 3pts allowed! The Clippers' individual defense at the PG position is possible the best in the league with Chris Paul and Darren Collison and so, no wonder that the LA team is #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense. Therefore, Damian Lillard won't have an easy task against Chris Paul and with that, Portland's perimeter shooting should struggle on this match up. Of course the key match up in here will be between Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge, but both players are in great form right now and so, I expect both to play well tonight. I believe that the team that will generate more easy points down low will have a bigger chance to win this game, as both teams are excellent on 3pts defense. In that way, the Clippers are #11 on defending the paint, while Portland is just #22! Portland has been super clutch at home this season. They won their home games against Indiana, Oklahoma City, Houston and against New Orleans on their last game, but all those games were ballgames where Portland won the game just on the last possessions of the game. I believe that the Blazers might repeat that tonight, but that will give us an excellent spot to take the Clippers plus the points tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Los Angeles Clippers (+4,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 12/26: Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Atlanta  at Cleveland

NBA - 501 Atlanta Hawks @ 502 Cleveland Cavaliers Play #1 There is a considerable gap of quality between the Hawks and the Cavaliers right now… ATL offense has been great to watch w/ a superb ball movement, high A/TO ratios and great overall shooting. Their game @MIA was a good statement of their ability as a team, even though they lost the game. Tonight’s matchup is extremely favorable for the Hawks as they will explore CLE’s frontcourt lack of speed w/ both Millsap & Horford. CLE frontline unit is a powerful unit but at the same time, they are slow footed and they are automatically in trouble against post players than can shoot from mid range. In the first h2h of the season, the Hawks crushed the Cavs 108-89! Just look for ATL’s big men numbers: Millsap 7-14 FG, 16 pts, 14 reb & 5 assists in just 27 minutes and Horford 10-19 FG, 22 pts, 9 reb & 4 assists in 31min! On the other side, CLE offense is still a work in progress and for now, they need Kyrie Irving to do almost everything. They run a lot of Pick n Rolls but the problem is that ATL is a top 10 defensive team defending P&R ball handler plays (Ranked #7), so it won’t be easy for CLE to generate easy points against a disciplined ATL defense. My fair line for this contest is ATL-6 and that’s why I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Atlanta Hawks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Card 12/25

NBA - 807 Houston Rockets @ 808 San Antonio Spurs

Play #3

This will be the 2nd h2h game between these two teams, and in the first one, the Rockets went to SA and beat them 112-106. However, the circumstances have changed and I believe that the Spurs are completely favored this time around.

First of all, the Rockets had a favorable spot for the first game vs. SAS: both teams were playing the second night of a b2b set (3rd game in 4nights), but while HOU played vs. ATL and vs. BKN at home and easily won both games, the Spurs played on the road @OKC and @ORL w/ the game @OKC being obviously a “big” game for them.

HOU started strong but they allowed SAS to come back before closing out the deal. The KEY factor for their win was the Rockets’ complete domination on the rebounding battle. HOU ended the game w/ impressive reb/rate of 60% - they outrebounded SAS 54-33 & 12-4 on offensive boards! However, note that was the time where Omer Asik was still a valuable member of the team as he was the main “big” backup player coming off the bench, so the Rockets had always a “big” on the court. Also, the Spurs had to deal w/ Tiago Splitter not being @ 100%, head coach Popovich had to remove him from the starting lineup and he played only 17 minutes coming off the bench, as Boris Diaw was their starter @PF. It is now pretty easy to understand why the Rockets outrebounded the Spurs so badly in that game

Obviously, I don’t expect HOU to have such tremendous edge on the boards today. Asik is OUT, Smith is OUT and the Rockets in the last game against DAL had Casspi as their “big” player coming off the bench. Despite playing against an awful rebounding team, the Rockets weren’t able to dominate DAL on the boards!

Also, Patrick Beverley played in that game (he logged 37 minutes) and had a team high +/- +11 points for the team. He was a key factor on the defensive end by having 3 defensive boards, 3 steals and 1 block. He is OUT as well for today and his importance for the team is truly underrated in my opinion as he is by FAR their best defensive player on the backcourt. When you are facing a team like the Spurs, you need a defensive stopper just to make Tony Parker work hard, and right now, the Rockets don’t have any player to do that.

HOU has been struggling to protect the rim lately, and without Beverly, they struggled to stop DAL perimeter offense in the last game. The Spurs offense playing at home will be too much for the Rockets defense.

Dwight Howard is playing great lately but SAS interior defense is one of the best in the league. HOU would have to shoot lights out from the outside just to hang around w/ SAS but w/ Harden banged up and Lin still yet on the best form, I expect SAS to easy beat the Rockets tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 808 San Antonio Spurs (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 809 Los Angeles Clippers @ 810 Golden State Warriors

Play #4

This is in my opinion the best game of the day and I’m looking forward to watch the Warriors playing @ home in primetime.

With the return of Andre Iguodala, GSW defense automatically looked better and more confident on their ability as a unit. Their defensive structure is built around Iguodala and obviously, GSW defense improved dramatically in L4 games w/ Defensive Ratings of 97.7, 100.9, 81.2 and 87.7!

Meanwhile, the Clippers are riding high right now. They finished their 4-game home span by winning all games while showing some great offense and decent defense.

However there are some factors in L3 games that I didn’t like and eventually it will turn against them tonight. First of all, they keep launching too many three pointers per game…L3 games, they attempted 23, 33 and 29 while hitting just 34%! They were also completely outrebounded in those games by having just 45.4, 47.0 and 45.9% reb/rate%.

This kind of mindset of attempting too many treys and don’t work hard on the glass can be dangerous especially if you are playing against the Warriors @GSW!

Doc Rivers is now using Jamal Crawford as their starting shooting guard and I expect Mark Jackson to work in this matchup by exploring Jamal bad overall defense (especially on screens). Due to some injuries, GSW bench has been a subpar unit all season long, but I don’t expect LAC to have any particular edge in this area because Jamal Crawford is now starting.

In this scenario of two jump shooting teams playing each other, I think we have some value w/ GSW and that’s why I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 810 Golden State Warriors ML @ -135 / 1.74 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 12/25: Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers

Miami  at LA Lakers

NBA - 805 Miami Heat @ 806 Los Angeles Lakers Play #2 My fair line for this contest is 203/204 points so IMO we are getting some decent value w/ the Under and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. I expect the Lakers offense to struggle (once again) in this matchup. Their offense is predicated on Pick n Rolls in multiple ways. In the last 3 games, their volume% of P&R ball handler plays was more than 20% in average – pretty high number for any team in the league! The problem is that I have bad news for them, because the Heat is the BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM in the league defending P&R BH plays allowing just 0.57 PPP! MIA’s great ball pressure defense is a tough matchup for a shorthanded Lakers team that tends to commit TO’s against aggressive defensive teams. I know that Jordan Farmar is back today and he will give some decent play @PG position, but still he won’t perform any miracle for his team. Eventually, Pau Gasol has a good spot to perform well tonight down low against MIA, but IMO he isn’t physically capable to dominate the entire game and so, the Heat will focus in holding LAL’s perimeter offense. However, I don’t think the Heat is in a good spot to perform at their best offensively. They had to make a huge travel for this contest w/ just one day off and to make things even worse; they had to battle hard against ATL in the last game, a game that went to OT! The Lakers have been completely outrebounded in the last few games but they will have some break today as MIA really don’t crash the boards offensively. They are also protecting the rim pretty well as of late by allowing just 51.5% FG at the rim L4 games, defending the perimeter has been indeed a huge problem for them, but again, I think that the Heat will struggle a bit in shooting the ball from long range. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Under 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/25: Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks

Oklahoma City  at New York

NBA - 803 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 804 New York Knicks Play #1 The Knicks are coming from a “nice” win last game @ORL in a pretty favorable matchup for them. ORL defensive scheme is focused to protect the rim while their lack of athleticism on the wings don’t allow them to be a good perimeter defensive team: they are ranked #21 defending Pick n Roll ball handler plays & 26 spot up plays. So, what happened was that the Knicks almost didn’t try to score down low against the Magic, they scored just 26 points in the paint! At the same time, 62% of their shots were from +16 feet where ORL defense struggles. Obviously, the Knicks were able to be efficient on the offense end. However, note that despite scoring 103 points, NYK had just 19 assists in 39 FGM for a subpar 48.7% assist/rate% and just 3 fast break points – no transition game or whatsoever! This might work against a bad P&R & Spot up defensive team like ORL....However against an OKC defense that in those 2 areas is ranked #4 & #3 in the league, this simply won’t work! The supreme athleticism of OKC isn’t comparable vs. ORL and so the Knicks offense without a good ball movement and lack of transition game, will be in trouble in the half court vs. OKC defense. Despite the return of Tyson Chandler, NYK defense is still bad, especially w/ their team help defense concept. Their 1*1 defense down low is actually pretty decent but when it comes to rotate and make the right defensive decisions, they are a mess. A decent aggressive guard will torch them off the dribble and you can consider Russell Westbrook as one of those “decent” guards. OKC was playing their best basketball of the season when they went @SAS and beat them with some ease (I had OKC+3 in that game) but, then in a b2b home game they completely relaxed and overlooked the Raptors, and ended up losing the game for their first home loss of the season. The loss was so bizarre especially considering that OKC was leading the game by double digits points in the 4th quarter! They finished the 4th quarter shooting 5-25 from the field – a comical 20% FG mark! Raymond Felton is OUT for today, so the Knicks have only Beno Udrih to play as natural PG. Obviously HC Mike Woodson will have to find some solutions for this position but regardless who plays the position, Russell Westbrook will just destroy the Knicks today. OKC superior bench play, superior talent and superior “motivation” will be just too much for the Knicks today. The Knicks have already on their backs some blowout losses against “lowly” teams like the Celtics or the Cavaliers, now they will face a OKC fired up team, good luck with that! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

NBA Daily Message Christmas Day

Daily Message 12/25:

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 170-149-3 ATS | +25.15 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 170-149-3 ATS | +10.71 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 59-47-3 ATS | +21.60 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 59-47-3 ATS | +9.80 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)
NFL 2013 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Monday recap:

Under SAS/TOR 203 Double Dime LOSS

Milwaukee (+7) WIN

Atlanta (+8.5) WIN

Utah (+6.5) LOSS

San Antonio (-11.5) WIN

Golden State ML WIN

Phoenix (-7.5) WIN

Daily Message:

After a bad start of the season, we were able to bounce back and we have now a good share of profit to show. Obviously it isn't enough for me so we have just to keep work hard and make adjustments all the time. Yesterday was a rare off day in this regular season, so I could refresh my mind a bit for the grind that the NBA regular season is about. We are coming from another good overall day by going 5-2 in our NBA Plays and we are 60-36 ATS (63% clip) in the last 96 NBA Plays.

Moving on for today, we have 5 games to work so let's do it! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 12/25

NBA - 713 Utah Jazz @ 714 Memphis Grizzlies

Play #3

Utah is coming from a nice win at Charlotte. They have been alternating between decent and terrible defensive performances, but the trend is quite evident: they are getting crushed by good shooting teams, as the Jazz's defense is #27 on pick and roll ball handler defense and dead last on spot up defense. This is why they allowed 130 points at Portland, 117 points at Miami and 118 points at Atlanta on this road trip.

However, Utah will be saved from that tonight, as Memphis's outside shooting is outright poor. Mike Conley returned at NY against the Knicks and struggled with 4-18 FG. James Johnson is now the team's starting SF and the truth is that this lineup doesn't offer any danger from the outside. Therefore, Utah's defense will pack the paint tonight. The Jazz have a decent interior defense and Derrick Favors will be a tough matchup for Zach Randolph.

Utah's offense has been better lately with Trey Burke at the PG position and with better spacing with Marvin Williams at the PF position. Memphis's defensive decline this season has been caused by poor perimeter defense, as they are #28 on pick and roll defense! Utah's offense relies on pick and rolls, so they should have a good edge on offense tonight. Considering everything, I believe that the Jazz have a good spot to be super competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 Utah Jazz (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 715 Toronto Raptors @ 716 San Antonio Spurs

Plays #4 & 5

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

San Antonio is coming from a home loss against Oklahoma City, where they had their worst defensive quarter of the season by allowing 40 points in the second quarter. Tony Parker returned to the lineup with 23 points after missing two games with a shin injury and he believes that the Spurs need to regroup tonight and on their Christmas game against Houston:

"We'll just regroup and we'll play better on Monday and (then) get ready for the big one on Christmas Day." Tony Parker said.

Kawhi Leonard missed the game against the Thunder due to a dental procedure and San Antonio had no chance also thanks to Tiago Splitter being currently out of form. Considering Splitter's problems and without their best perimeter defender against an explosive team like Oklahoma City, the Spurs had no chance. Things will be different tonight and I expect the Spurs to bounce back in here.

Toronto continues with their traditional poor A/TO ratios, even though they are being more competitive lately. Now against San Antonio's disciplined defense, they will struggle especially due to their tired legs after a huge effort on their game at Oklahoma City last night. Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas will also struggle tonight against San Antonio's good interior defense and the Raptors as a team will also struggle on offense, as they put a lot of focus on the pick and roll game, an area where San Antonio's defense is an elite unit. 

I believe Toronto's offense will heavily struggle tonight, while San Antonio's offense will also have some issues, as they aren't currently at their best. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play! I also expect the Spurs to bounce back and get an easy blowout win tonight, so I'll be taking them in here as well on a Single Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 715/716 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 San Antonio Spurs (-11,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 717 Golden State Warriors @ 718 Denver Nuggets

Play #6

After a really nice span of good performances, Denver is back into not convincing me one bit. Their rebounding has been subpar, their outside shooting has been poor and Ty Lawson being banged up isn't helping them one bit as well. Golden State's defense got a mega boost with Andre Iguodala coming back from injury. Their rebounding has been great lately, while their interior defense has been good as well by allowing just 34 points in the paint per game over their last five contests. Kenneth Faried won't play tonight, so Denver's inside game will be limited and with their poor outside shooting, I expect Denver's offense to struggle tonight.

On the other hand, Denver's perimeter defense continues to struggle like it happened last season and Golden State with their excellent outside shooting will make the difference tonight to get them an excellent road win tonight. I'm taking the Warriors in here on the money line. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Golden State Warriors ML @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker

NBA - 719 Los Angeles Lakers @ 720 Phoenix Suns

Play #7

The Lakers are currently shorthanded and involved in a complete confusion in the rotations. Without Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Steve Blake and Jordan Farmar, the Lakers are now using players at the PG who have no play making skills and that's resulting in a high number of turnovers. They had 19 against Minnesota and 24 at Golden State on their last game. As you can imagine, committing a bunch of turnovers against a team that has Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic in the back court is a huge no-no!

As usual, Phoenix's transition game has been amazing, while their pick and roll game keeps also being super effective as usual. Now against a Lakers team that pretty much no available guards, the LA team will heavily struggle against Phoenix's offense. On the other hand, the Suns' interior defense is struggling and they allowed an average of 56 points in the paint over their last three games. However, the Lakers are a jump shooting team, so they won't explore that. Besides the huge matchup edge, I believe the Lakers will be also thinking about their Christmas game against Miami, so I believe Phoenix won't have problems in getting a double digits win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 720 Phoenix Suns (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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NBA - 707 Atlanta Hawks @ 708 Miami Heat

Play #1

Earlier this season, Miami had no problems on beating Atlanta at home. The Heat used their high pressure defense on Jeff Teague and that destroyed Atlanta's offense that self-destroyed with 24 turnovers! However, note that the team's second best ball handler Lou Williams was out, just like Paul Millsap. Therefore, Atlanta's spread offense didn't have some key pieces that they need to function properly. Atlanta is now a much healthier and confident team and I believe they will be more competitive this time around.

Both teams are coming from games where they used their good offenses to crush lowly teams. They are very confident and so, I expect this game to be a good one. However, I believe that this game means more to Atlanta than it does to Miami. The Hawks will be fired up to try to get revenge over their poor showing at Miami earlier in the season, while Miami is possibly already thinking about their Christmas game at LA against the Lakers. Therefore, I believe this will be a close game and so, I'll be taking Atlanta plus the points tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Atlanta Hawks (+8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 703 Milwaukee Bucks @ 704 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #2

This will be the third game between these two teams this season, with the first two being huge blowout wins by the Bobcats. Charlotte has been showing their solid defense as usual, but they are struggling on offense. They had two good offensive games against Detroit and Toronto due to good individual performances. Kemba Walker has been playing well, but the team as a whole is struggling on offense with just 18, 19 and 16 assists on their last three games. Besides the low assist rates, they are also struggling on rebounds lately. Their offense is based on a bunch of pick and rolls with a huge volume of 26.2% and 26.5% on their last two games! On the other hand, their spot ups and transitions couldn't be less effective and this is holding them down on offense.

After a big slump, Milwaukee is now being more competitive with three competitive performance against the NY Knicks, Cleveland and Philadelphia. Their perimeter defense continues to struggle and they allowed 10, 17, 11 and 10 treys to their opponents on their last four games, for a combined of 48-116 (41%) 3pts! The good news for the Bucks is that Charlotte is a poor team on 3pts shooting and so, they won't explore that tonight. On the first two games between these two teams, Charlotte easily won both games due to being effective on pick and rolls, while Al Jefferson crushed the Bucks front court formed at the time by Zaza Pachulia and Ersan Ilyasova with 8-15 FG and 11-18 FG performance. 

Milwaukee's offense is also improving with Brandon Knight at the PG position. O.J. Mayo is now coming off the bench, while the team as a whole is rebounding better as well. Milwaukee has nothing to do with the team that got crushed twice by Charlotte earlier in the season and so, I'll be taking them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Milwaukee Bucks (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada