NBA Article 10/31: Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Some notes about Philadelphia vs Denver:

This is possibly the most interesting game of the day, as we are talking two teams that are outsiders on their conferences, but who have potential to be really good. Philadelphia was early at -2 for this game, but now Denver is being favored by 1,5 points. So, there was some line movement on Denver, but also the public is heavy on them. In my opinion, it is just too dangerous to take any side on this contest due to some uncertain factors.

We know very well Denver's style on court: push the pace, score in transition and attack the rim non-stop. This has always been George Karl's formula in Denver and this season won't be an exception to that. The problem is that Philadelphia's defense from last season would always be a tough opponent for them, as I remember that Philadelphia was #1 in points in the paint allowed with 36.4 points and also #1 in fast break points allowed per game with just 10.2 points. Jrue Holliday is the best defensive PG in the league and so, Ty Lawson will struggle tonight.

The problem is that Philadelphia has a lot of new players for this season, so will they keep the same structure? I would say yes, but I'm not entirely sure. Even though they have a lot of new players and they have been playing without Andrew Bynum, Philadelphia looked sharp offensively on the preseason by being #1 in offensive rate!  

On the last preseason game, Denver's frontcourt was crushed by the Clippers' frontcourt, however Philadelphia without Andrew Bynum doesn't have a dangerous frontcourt. These uncertainties makes this matchup the best game of the night, but I'll just be watching it via league pass, as I'm definitely not betting on it.

NBA Free Premium Play 10/31: Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz

Dallas  at Utah

NBA - 711 Dallas Mavericks @ 712 Utah Jazz Projected Line: 194 points | Utah by 12 points Independently from the matchup of this game that is indeed very favorable to Utah, Dallas would always struggle in here due to their poor spot for tonight. We are talking about their first back to back game of the season, on a road-road spot, with tonight's game being in Utah, the worst team together with Denver to play on a back to back game. To make things even worse for the Mavericks, they played at 10:30PM EST last night, while they will play tonight at 9:00PM EST, so they have even less time to prepare for tonight's game. Now looking onto the matchups. Dallas is undersized down low right now and that's clear with both Chris Kaman and Dirk Nowitzki out due to injury. So, Dallas was forced to use Elton Brand for 36 minutes last night, Brendan Wright for 20 minutes and even Eddy Curry was forced to play 17 minutes! Now imagine Eddy Curry running on a back to back game at Utah! Also Elton Brand doesn't "have" legs anymore to play back to back games after having played 36 minutes last night. With the Mavs struggling on the frontcourt, it wasn't a surprise that both Howard and Gasol crushed them yesterday, with a combined of 45 points, 16-31 FG, 23 rebounds, 8 offensive rebounds (the whole Mavs team had just 8!) and 4 blocks. My advanced numbers also show that the Lakers had 55.1% of rebounds, while Dallas had just 44.9%. This wasn't a surprise for me, as I had referred exactly that on my article about the game between the Lakers and the Mavs.

NBA 10/31 Slam Dunk Card

Daily Message 10/31:

NBA 2012 RECORD: 1-1-0 ATS | +0.55 units

NBA 2012  RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 1-1-0 ATS | +0.85 units 

NFL 2012 RECORD: 30-25-3 ATS | +5.55 units
NFL 2012  RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 30-25-3 ATS | +1.90 units  

NBA 2012-13 Record Spreedsheet (click here) 

NFL 2012 Record Spreedsheet (click here) 

NBA Yesterday's recap:

Over MIA/BOS 185.5 (DD) WIN

Washington +6 LOSS

Daily Message:

The NBA season started yesterday and we opened the season by going 1-1 on our plays, with a win on our Double Dime Play (Over MIA/BOS) by 41.5 points!!! It was a shame that Washington couldn't keep up with Cleveland down the stretch, but we still opened the season with a small winning day.

Today, we have the second day of the NBA season and we have 9 games where we will surely have some great opportunities to cash in. Meanwhile, I'm also already preparing the Week 9 of the NFL, after going 5-2 on Week 8, including easy wins on Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.

+155.9un L6 NBA Regular Seasons!!!

A new NBA season has finally begun and so, it's time for Andre Gomes to pound the sportsbooks one more time! Andre Gomes has been pure excellence on the NBA since the day he started being a handicapper almost a decade ago and the main proof of that is the fact that he has never had a losing regular season on the NBA! He has very carefully studied today's card and he has come up with some excellent plays that should become easy winners at the end of the night. All these plays are being accompanied by extensive writeups, telling you why Andre is betting on these games, so don't waste any time and starting winning alongside Andre on the NBA!

JUST CLICK HERE

NBA 10/30 Advanced Stats Numbers

Washington at Cleveland							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
WAS	24	15	23	22	84		89.03	93.28	0.40	11.63	33.33	13.33
CLE	31	19	24	20	94			106.80	0.50	19.15	46.15	18.99
Boston at Miami							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
BOS	25	29	22	31	107		92.35	115.72	0.56	15.49	18.42	30.67
MIA	31	31	31	27	120			130.10	0.59	7.91	12.82	32.91
Dallas at L.A. Lakers							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DAL	25	23	26	25	99		89.07	107.51	0.50	11.44	22.50	16.47
LAL	29	17	20	25	91			105.75	0.51	13.38	32.61	15.58

NBA Premium Play 10/30: Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat

NBA - 503 Boston Celtics @ 504 Miami Heat

Projected Line: 195 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Three seasons ago when the Miami's big three was formed, they had to face Boston in their first game of the season as well and the closing totals line of that game was 189 points. Miami ended that game with 36.5% FG while showing a lot of offensive problems, while Boston imposed their physical edge down low with Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal. But in three years a lot of things changed and so, the current totals line of 185.5 points makes absolutely zero sense for this contest.

We are now in front of two teams that will play small ball throughout the new season, on a completely new era for them. Chris Bosh will be Miami's starting center and so, the Heat won't have in their starting lineup a player who is worthless on offense like they had in Joel Anthony. Meanwhile, Boston will use a similar formula with Kevin Garnett being the team's starting center.

It's likely that the linemakers are giving too much credit to what happened in last year's playoffs between these two teams. However, I remember that Chris Bosh played only in the last three games of the series and just over 25 minutes in the last two games. On the other hand, Boston was completely banged up and they had very few quality options on their bench. Those games were half court games and that won't happen this season, especially on this game.

Just like it happened last season, Miami will start the season by imposing a very fast pace on their games, in order to take advantage of their superior athletic ability. Take a look at the pace of the four games between these two teams in last year's regular season:

12/27 - 99.97  

04/01 - 88.40  

04/10 - 88.26 

04/24 - 88.86

NBA Premium Play 10/30: Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

NBA - 501 Washington Wizards @ 502 Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Line: Cleveland by 3 points

I watched some preseason games and Washington has kinda impressed me. I have some doubts about the coaching skills of Coach Randy Wittman, but the truth is that the team last season played hard for him by winning the last seven games of the season, a sign that Wittman got the trust of the players, who fought hard for him to remain on the team. During this offseason, Washington added one assistant coach, who will bring a lot of quality to the team: Don Newman. He brings more than 20 years of experience to the Wizards’ staff, including the past seven seasons as an assistant coach for the San Antonio Spurs. During his successful tenure with the Spurs, Newman worked under Gregg Popovich and helped lead San Antonio to a pair of NBA Championships (2005 and 2007).

I understand that Washington will be without John Wall and Nene Hilario for this game, but the linemakers are failing to realize that the Wizards are an improved team. I liked their work rate in all the preseason games, with Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza bringing a big defensive boost to the team. But the big difference was indeed on offense with a good ball movement and with an unselfish mentality from their players. In fact, Washington was #12 on the preseason in the assist/turnover ratio with 1.4 A/TO, while they had a 60.8% assist rate, also good enough for the #12 position. In comparison with last season, this was a clear improvement, as Washington had a 1.31 A/TO ratio (#28) and a 52.08% assist rate (#27)! Of course, this was "just" the preseason, but still their progresses were evident and another sign of that was the fact that a chunker like Jordan Crawford was quickly removed from the Wizards' starting lineup.

NBA 10/30: Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers, Analysis Matchup

We are in front of an interesting game, but that won't have any play on it, as there isn't enough data to make an accurate read of the two teams, especially when we have Kobe Bryant and Chris Kaman banged up and questionable for tonight. Both teams left some indications on the preseason, but the sample is small and the team's priorities weren't exactly winning those games.

Dallas Mavericks:

Dallas has nothing to do with the previous seasons, so we can throw any past data we have on them through the window. If Kaman plays tonight, Dallas will just have one played on their starting lineup that was already on the team last season: Shawn Marion! Coach Rick Carlisle has still a lot of work ahead of him, but the team's identity was revealed during the preseason games.  

The Mavericks had the most veteran team in the league last season and their premium backcourt players Jason Kidd and Jason Terry simply lacked speed and explosiveness, so the team was playing half court basketball and living off Dirk Nowitzki's offensive talent. Now with Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo on the team, Dallas wants to push up the pace from the backcourt in order to score easy points.

This was exactly their main focus on the preseason. However, we are in front of a team with several new players, they are still lacking chemistry and therefore, Dallas had a lot of problems with turnovers on the preseason. After two games against European teams, Dallas had 17.2 turnovers per game on the six games where they faced NBA teams. A team that wants to have a high volume of transition plays is more prone to turnovers and that was exactly what happened with Dallas. However, the fact is that they scored a ton of transition points! They finished the preseason by being #1 on the league with 20.1 fast break points per game! And if we ignore the two games against European teams, these numbers jump into 24.2 fast break points per game!

The main problem with Dallas has been on the rebounding. Dallas's defense has been solid in opposing eFG%, but they have been just pounded in the glass by being clearly the worst team on the preseason! New Orleans had 20 offensive rebounds against them while the Mavs had just 4 and even Charlotte had 25 offensive rebounds against them! Dallas doesn't look to be a good rebounding team, even when Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Kaman comeback to the lineup, but without both, Rick Carlisle had to use Elton Brand in the center position in some moments of the games and that's a big concern for Dallas! I can't imagine Rick Carlisle putting Elton Brand as center while facing Dwight Howard, so he will have to solve this problem in some other fashion.

NBA Opening Night All Access Card

Daily Message 10/30:

NBA 2012 RECORD: 0-0-0 ATS | +0.00 units

NBA 2012  RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 0-0-0 ATS | +0.00 units 

NFL 2012 RECORD: 30-25-3 ATS | +5.55 units
NFL 2012  RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 30-25-3 ATS | +1.90 units   

NFL 2012 Record Spreedsheet (click here) 

NFL Yesterday's recap:

San Francisco -7 WIN

Daily Message:

Today, another NBA Season beings and I expect it to be another profitable season for me and my clients! I've worked a lot during the offseason to make sure we crush the sportsbooks once again, so it's time to begin our NBA domination once again! On the NFL, I am coming from a very easy win in San Francisco last night that put us 5-2 on Week 8 Plays, for another winning week!

Today, we have three games on the opening day of the NBA Season! The long-term NBA packages are already available! Stay tuned especially on my twitter@gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!

+155.9un L6 NBA Regular Seasons!!!

We have finally arrived to the opening night of the new NBA Season and so, it's time for Andre Gomes to pound the sportsbooks one more time! Andre Gomes has been pure excellence on the NBA since the day he started being a handicapper almost a decade ago and the main proof of that is the fact that he has never had a losing regular season on the NBA! He has very carefully studied the opening night card and he has come up with some excellent plays that should become easy winners at the end of the evening. He has especially liked one of those plays and he's making it his first DOUBLE DIME PLAY of the season! All t hese plays are being accompanied by extensive writeups, telling you why Andre is betting on these games, so don't waste any time and starting winning alongside Andre on the NBA right now!

JUST CLICK HERE

NFL Week 8 Premium Play 10/29: San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

NFL Week 8 - 243 San Francisco 49ers @ 244 Arizona Cardinals

Projected Line: San Francisco by 11 points

After several Monday Night Football games this season where the clear underdog was able to remain competitive throughout the whole game and cover the spread at the end (e.g. the Jets covering against Houston or Detroit covering against Chicago), there are a lot of people who expect Arizona to make a huge effort tonight on their one and only National TV game of the season and be able to remain competitive throughout the whole game against San Francisco and end up covering the spread at the end of the game. However, I don't believe that. I expect Arizona to make a big effort tonight, but this is a divisional game as well and San Francisco will also make a big effort tonight to increase the gap in the standings to their main divisional rival. Considering the fact that the 49ers are clearly a much better team than the Cardinals right now, I expect San Francisco to pick up an easy win today.

Alex Smith wasn't exactly great on the team's last two games against the NY Giants and Seattle, however he is still having a very decent season by being in the league's top 10 in completion percentage (#6), yards per pass attempt (#9) and quarterback rating (#8). He'll be facing one of the best defenses against the pass this season in Arizona, so I don't expect him to have anything else but a solid game, while avoiding turnovers and giving some support to the team's excellent running game. It is exactly on the running game that San Francisco has a great shot of making the Cardinals' defense struggle tonight. San Francisco's running game is not only the most imaginative of the league, as it is also the most efficient one with 5.9 rushing yards per carry. Both Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter have been excellent this season and I expect them to have a good game against a Cardinals' run defense that it is just #20 on the league with 4.2 rushing yards allowed per carry. They showed last week in Minnesota that they can struggle against great running backs, when they allowed Adrian Peterson to rush for 153 yards in 23 carries for an average of 6.7 rushing yards per carry. Now against the best running game of the league, I expect Arizona to once again struggle in stopping the opposing's team running game and together with the solid support of Alex Smith, San Francisco should be able to have a positive offensive game, even though Arizona has indeed a good overall defense.

But San Francisco's domination ob this game will mostly happen on the other side of the ball, as I expect Arizona's offense to fail miserably in getting any kind of decent production tonight. Not only John Skelton is a poor quarterback, as the Cardinals' offensive line is clearly the worst in football, having allowed a total of 29 sacks on their last four games! San Francisco may not exactly have a great pass rush, but they are surely decent enough to outplay Arizona's horrible offensive line and put loads of pressure on John Skelton. Besides the fact that John Skelton will be pressured the whole game, there's also the fact that San Francisco's secondary has been excellent on pass coverage this season. In fact, even though their pass rush hasn't been great this season and so, the opposing quarterbacks aren't being pressured when they face them, the truth is that San Francisco is #5 in completion percentage allowed, #1 in yards allowed per pass attempt and #4 in the opposing quarterback rating. So, I have no doubts that Arizona will fail miserably on their attempt to have any kind of production from their passing game tonight. On the other hand, the Cardinals' running game is quite poor, as they have lost Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams to the injury reserve and San Francisco also possesses a good run defense that will without a lot stop LaRod Stephens-Howling, who is coming from the best performance of his career in Minnesota last week in a big effort and who will surely have a letdown tonight against a powerful 49ers defense.

On special teams, both kickers have been quite inconsistent his season, while the 49ers have a better punter than Arizona. I believe both teams will have an edge on their returning over the opponent's coverage, so don't be surprised if a team scores a touchdown on a return tonight. I believe both teams have a quite decent special teams unit and I don't see any kind of overall edge of a team over the other on this unit.

I believe San Francisco will explore very well the edge they will have on their running game against Arizona's run defense, while the Cardinals will struggle in having any kind of decent production on offense today. Therefore, I expect a relatively low scoring affair, but with San Francisco dominating the game and so, I'll be taking the 49ers in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 243 San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

NFL Week 8 Premium Play 10/28: New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos

NFL Week 8 - 241 New Orleans Saints @ 242 Denver Broncos

Projected Line: Denver by 9 points

I know a lot of people that are believing that Drew Brees will be able to make this game competitive almost on his own, but I don't expect that to happen, as Denver is clearly a much better team than New Orleans right now plus they are a much better spot for tonight as well. Peyton Manning has been having an excellent season and he has been particularly good at home games, even though he has faced good defensive teams like the Steelers and the Texans in those games. Now against the catastrophically bad defense of the Saints today, I believe that Peyton Manning and his receivers will have a field day, especially with them coming from a bye week. Also don't be surprised if the overall poor running game of the Broncos also has a good game today, as the Saints' run defense isn't better than their pass defense. 

On the other hand, it's a fact that Drew Brees will have some good passes today and the Saints won't leave this game without scoring some touchdowns. The problem is to know if the Saints will be able to keep up with Denver on the score, with the Broncos absolutely pounding the Saints defense the whole game. And I don't believe that will happen. First of all, the Saints will struggle to have any kind of support from the running game. Not only they have getting very low efficiency from their running backs this season, as Denver has a good run defense that will limit the Saints' running game to very low numbers today. And more important than that, Denver has a good pass rush and a decent pass defense that will definitely make a much better job at defending Brees' passes than the clueless Saints against Peyton's passes. Plus let's not forget that Brees is more used to play on domes and in the warm weather of Florida like last week than on a cold night in Denver, where I expect him to struggle a bit in being at their regular level.

Even though we are in presence of two very good passing teams, that's the only similarity between them for this contest. Denver has a better running game, a better run defense, a better pass defense and a better pass plus they are coming from a bye week and so, they have also a much better spot for tonight. New Orleans was lucky on their last two games against San Diego and Tampa Bay, but now against a good team like the Broncos, I expect them to get exposed and clearly outscored on a high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Broncos tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 242 Denver Broncos (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

2-Team 6pts Teaser:

NFL Week 8 - 219 New England Patriots @ 220 St Louis Rams

NFL Week 8 - 233 Carolina Panthers @ 234 Chicago Bears

Even though St Louis is officially playing at home today, this game will be played in London, where New England actually has a very big fanbase, so if a team is really playing at home on this game, that team will be the Patriots. New England is coming from a  home win over the Jets, in a game where they had a fourth quarter meltdown and almost lost the game. With the AFC East being so competitive this season, the 4-3 Patriots can't afford to lose today against an average team like the Rams and I don't believe they will. The Rams have been looking decent on defense, but they can't handle the high paced offense of the Patriots, while the Rams will struggle to make any kind of impact with their running game struggling against the surprisingly good run defense of New England. I know Sam Bradford should be able to throw a couple of good passes today, as the Patriots' pass defense is still a bit weak, however Sam Bradford won't outscore the Patriots' potent offense on his own, that's for sure. With more or less difficulties, New England will be winning this game.

I believe this game will indeed be statistically close, however I expect Chicago to be able once again to force a couple of turnovers and win this game comfortably due to a quite positive turnover margin. Jay Cutler has been quite average this season, with just some occasional good passes to Brandon Marshall, but he has been solid and the combination of that with an efficient running game and an elite defense has been enough for the Bears to keep winning week after week. This week should be no exception. Carolina has a lot of talent on offense, but they're also quite inconsistent and always ready to make a silly mistake at the wrong moment. Cam Newton has been a specialist of that this season and I believe he will struggle once again today against a Bears team that has been excellent in terms of takeaways this season. I believe Chicago's much more solid football will get a comfortable win over a talented but inconsistent Panthers team. With Green Bay starting to play much better over the past few weeks, Chicago can't afford to lose easy games and so, I believe they will have another solid win today.  

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 219 New England Patriots (-1) x 234 Chicago Bears (-1,5) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 8 Premium Play 10/28: Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

NFL Week 8 - 229 Seattle Seahawks @ 230 Detroit Lions

Projected Line: Detroit by 5 points

Even though Seattle is being one of the main positive surprises on the league this season and Detroit one of the main disappointments, I believe the Lions have an excellent spot to finally have a good win today. Detroit is coming from a Monday Night Football game in Chicago, where they gave the Bears a good fight and they would have won the game if it wasn't for three turnovers on the Bears' red zone. Matthew Stafford finally had a decent game (even though Calvin Johnson was nowhere to be found in almost the whole game), while the running game is also surprisingly playing well with Mikel Leshoure looking quite decent. I know Seattle's defense has been a great overall unit this season, but I don't expect them to be able to completely stop the Lions' offense today, especially on a 1PM EST game, three time zones away from Seattle's time zone.

On the other hand, I expect Seattle's offense to have a very poor game. They didn't look very good on offense in San Francisco on their last game and that's mostly because Russell Wilson is indeed struggling and I expect him to keep struggling throughout the second half of the NFL season. Detroit doesn't have an amazing pass defense, but they're good in avoiding big plays and I don't expect Russell Wilson to be able to produce anything special on this game. On the running game, Marshawn Lynch keeps having a huge workload, but with just an average efficiency and that's exactly what I expect from him today: a decent performance, with an average efficiency, but not good enough to carry Seattle's offense on his own, as he will get very little support from the passing game.

Detroit is 2-4 right now and they can't afford to lose today. They are starting to play a bit better over the last few weeks and with the help of a noisy crowd, I expect them to neutralize the Seahawks offense and eventually come up with a couple of good plays on offense to get a great win in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Lions today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 230 Detroit Lions (-1) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bovada

NFL Week 8 Premium Play 10/28: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers

NFL Week 8 - 223 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 224 Green Bay Packers

Projected Line: 40 points

After two huge road wins in Houston and in St Louis, I expect Green Bay to relax a bit in perhaps their easiest game of the season. They'll be facing the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, a team who will be playing without their best player Maurice Jones-Drew today. Aaron Rodgers has been playing at a MVP level once again for the past two weeks, but I expect him to have a bit of a letdown today. Not only his best receivers continue to struggle physically (Greg Jennings is out with an abdominal injury, Jordy Nelson is questionable with a hamstring injury, Jerimichael Finley is probable with a shoulder injury and Donald Driver is probable with a neck injury), as he will be facing a decent Jags defense that even though it is far from the excellent level they showed last season, they are still a decent unit. On such an easy game for Green Bay, I expect them to relax and run the football a good number of times, in order to kill some time as well.

This game will indeed be very easy for Green Bay because Jacksonville's offense is a complete mess right now. Blaine Gabbert keeps being one of the worst quarterbacks in the league and he is injured on his non-throwing shoulder. Now facing a much improved from last season Packers defense that also possesses the best pass rush in the league, I expect Gabbert to have another very poor game while being very pressured by the Packers defense. In terms of the running game, with Maurice Jones-Drew out with a foot injury, Rashad Jennings will be the team's main running back and he won't be able to do a lot without any kind of support from the passing game and with Green Bay's run defense being also far from terrible. Basically, I wouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville fails to score a single touchdown today, finishing the game with just a couple of field goals.

I expect this game to quickly turn into a very easy game for Green Bay in here as the lines suggest, with the Packers shutting down the Jags offense, while Aaron Rodgers has a pretty relaxed day. Therefore, I expect this game to go clearly under the total posted and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 223/224 Under 45,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 8 Free Premium Play 10/28: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Miami  at NY Jets

Play: Single Dime Play on Under 38,5

Comments: NFL Week 8 - 231 Miami Dolphins @ 232 New York Jets Projected Line: 35 points I took the Under on the game between these two teams in Miami and we only lost it because the game went to overtime. On a similar matchup and with the weather being clearly worse today (rainy and windy day), I believe we have once have the ingredients for a very low scoring game in here. Mark Sanchez is coming from a decent game in New England last week, but he keeps being an overall poor quarterback with the clear inability of having a high percentage of completions. Now against a good Dolphins defense, who is coming from a bye week, I expect Sanchez to heavily struggle today against a team that has been quite good in stopping the opposing quarterbacks this season. And if Miami has been good against the pass, they are the best team in the league in stopping the run with just 3.3 rushing yards allowed per carry, so I really expect the Jets offense to have any kind of decent production today against a very good overall defensive team, who is coming from a bye week. The problem with Miami is that their offense isn't looking good neither. Ryan Tannehill has been having some normal issues for a rookie quarterback and in a rainy and windy day, I don't expect him to have a good game against a team that even though they lost their best secondary player in Darrelle Revis, they are still a top 10 team against the pass. On the other hand, Daniel Thomas is returning to the field today, but Miami's running game has been regressing big time over the last few weeks after a very good start of the season. I know the Jets doesn't have a good run defense, but Miami is now just #24 on running game efficiency with 3.8 rushing yards per carry, so I don't expect the Dolphins to have a huge game on the running game today. I believe this game will easily turn into a very physical divisional game, with both teams fighting on the field for the win. I believe both teams will use their running game a lot today, while both defenses will outplay both struggling offenses, therefore I expect this game to quickly turn into a low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 231/232 Under 38,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 8 Premium Play 10/25: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings

NFL Week 8 - 103 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 104 Minnesota Vikings

Projected Line: Minnesota by 2 points

Even though there is a considerable difference between the current records of both teams, I don't believe there is a big difference in terms of the level of these two teams right now. Minnesota currently holds a 5-2 record, but they are definitely playing worse than the record indicates. Christian Ponder has started to struggled and he has thrown six interceptions over the last three games, after not throwing a single pick on the first four games of the season. His performance against Arizona last Sunday where he had just 58 passing yards shows that perhaps his knee injury is troubling him. He will be facing a Bucs pass defense that is indeed struggling this season, however they have also intercepted the opposing quarterback nine times in six games and Ponder's 6.6 yards per pass attempt surely don't scare Tampa Bay. On the other hand, Adrian Peterson has also skipped a practice this week due to a sore ankle and after a considerable workload last Sunday against the Cardinals (23 carries), I don't expect him to be impressive tonight against the best run defense in the league, who are just allowing 3.1 rushing yards per carry this season. Therefore, I expect Minnesota to struggle offensively tonight, just like they struggled last week against Arizona.

The problem for the Vikings is that Tampa Bay doesn't have a poor offense like Arizona. Josh Freeman may struggle in having a high percentage of completions, but he is good in connecting big passes, especially with his main receiver Vincent Jackson. Their running game led by Doug Martin is also quite interesting and their offensive line has only allowed 10 sacks this season, very far from the 35 sacks Arizona has already allowed their opponents this season. Therefore, I don't expect Minnesota to be able to compensate their offensive struggles with a shutdown on defense. Tampa Bay's offense has too much quality for the Vikings to completely stop them, on a similar way that they did last Sunday against Arizona.

I believe the Vikings will start regressing very quickly on the second half of the season and I believe it will start tonight. They got away with a terrible offensive performance last week against Arizona, but I don't expect the same to happen tonight against Tampa Bay. I expect Christian Ponder to struggle again, while Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup against the current leader on rushing yards allowed per carry, therefore a simple average performance from the Bucs offense tonight will put Minnesota in a lot of trouble. I expect that to happen on this contest and so, I'll be taking Tampa Bay in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 103 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker