NBA - 807 New Orleans Hornets @ 508 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Line: 185 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
We already know what Memphis's defense is dominant, while at the same time their offense is too inconsistent. This is why the total lines of their games are always on the high 170's or low 180's. However, we have to take advantage of that when Memphis's offense manages to be competitive and this has been the case since Rudy Gay's trade rumors ended with their trade with Cleveland that allowed them to save money for the future. Memphis is coming from back to back games where they had offensive ratings higher than 110! The last time (and first time also) that this had happened with them this season was in early November, where Memphis manged to score 104 points to Miami, 107 points to Oklahoma City and 105 points to the NY Knicks! They are very good in forcing turnovers and then in scoring in transition (13 and 12 fast break points over their last two games) and they can really pound their opponents down low, with 60 and 62 points in the paint scored over their last two games, while shooting 24-36 (67%) FG and 23-33 (70%) FG at the rim in those games.
In these conditions, any team would struggle to Memphis's great offensive dynamic, however things will be even tougher for New Orleans's defense because of the matchup. I've already mentioned two key areas where Memphis's offense has been playing well: transitions and points near the basket. They will now face a Hornets's defense that has been terrible in those areas. New Orleans's defense is #29 against transition plays and already on their last game, we've watched how terrible they are on this area by allowing 20 fast break points to Houston. In fact, they've allowed 16, 17, 15, 25 and 20 fast break points on their last five games! Besides that, New Orleans's interior defense is very far from being an elite unit. Curiously, Anthony Davis has been impressing more on offense than on defense and on this matchup, Davis simply doesn't have the physical presence to stop Zach Randolph! New Orleans is just #20 on rim defense by allowing 65.2% FG for the season and they have been regressing with 68% FG allowed over their last 10 games and 72% FG allowed over their last five games!
On the other side, New Orleans's offense has been much better since Eric Gordon has returned. They are scoring more transition points, they are playing at a faster pace and they have also improved on pick and roll ball handler plays. They are coming from an absolute stinker against Houston, where they just couldn't shoot from the perimeter with 9-24 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-20 3pts! When we see someone like Ryan Anderson shooting 0-5 3pts, there wasn't really something that was working for them offensively in that game. However, I highly doubt that they will struggle so much two times in a row.
We are in front of two teams with an improved offense in comparison to the early season, but the totals line isn't reflecting that. In fact, Memphis won by 96-89 at New Orleans in the last game between these two teams and with the totals line being set at 183 points, with New Orleans playing without Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon! This won't be a super high scoring game, but no way it's going to be the poor offensive game that the totals line are saying neither. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!
We are in front of two teams with an improved offense in comparison to the early season, but the totals line isn't reflecting that. In fact, Memphis won by 96-89 at New Orleans in the last game between these two teams and with the totals line being set at 183 points, with New Orleans playing without Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon! This won't be a super high scoring game, but no way it's going to be the poor offensive game that the totals line are saying neither. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 178 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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