NBA - 737 Memphis Grizzlies @ 738 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 8 points
First of all, I have to say that I loved the way that Oklahoma City played in the first half. Everytime they would get the ball on defense, they would ignite their turbo and they would make some nice transition plays with Reggie Jackson and Kevin Durant doing a good job in passing the ball to their open teammates. Serge Ibaka also played much better than in the previous games of the series by making some mid-range shots and even layups! Kevin Martin was very active and he wasn't just the quite spot up shooter that he was being earlier on the series. In fact, he attempted just three treys, while he made some good cuts by attacking aggressively and with that, going to the free throw line. Oklahoma City's offensive flow was miles ahead from what they had shown previously in the series. In fact, they had 10 assists the whole Game 3, while they had 13 assists just in the first half of Game 4! On the other side, Memphis struggled a lot in scoring and everything they achieved was via brute force with rebounds and free throws!
After the halftime, everything was different and I must say I don't understand Scott Brooks' decisions during the second half. Oklahoma City enters the second half with a nice offense and so, coach Hollins had no other option than making the following substitution:
7:41 64-55 Jerryd Bayless enters the game for Tony Allen
The Grizzlies need offense and so, Hollins sacrificed his team's elite defense to achieve that. To counter that, Brooks could have sent Kevin Martin into the game to exposed Jerryd Bayless' poor defense, but he did nothing. Mike Conley manages to get a couple of nice plays in a row, Memphis gets close to the Thunder on the scoreboard and finally, Brooks decides to make some changes on the backcourt:
3:25 Derek Fisher enters the game for Reggie Jackson 72-67
No Kevin Martin! In fact, he only enters the game half a minute after that:
2:53 Kevin Martin enters the game for Serge Ibaka
During the fourth quarter, on the crunch time, Kevin Martin was benched. The same for most of the overtime.
2:10 Kevin Martin enters the game for Kendrick Perkins
Then, of course, at the end of the game, we have Derek Fisher with 26 minutes, 1-5 FG and -7 points on +/- team points, while Kevin Martin has the same 26 minutes, but with 6-12 FG, 5-5 FT and +6 points on +/- team points.
Scott Brooks’s decision to leave Kevin Martin on the bench for long stretches or crunch time against both Houston and Memphis, including during most of the fourth quarter and overtime last night, is curious on the surface. The Thunder’s offense is dying, but Kevin Martin is still losing minutes to Derek Fisher in lineups both big and small. That is quite obviously a bad decision. Fisher has been hot from long range, but he’s a one-dimensional offensive player. He’s not particularly good at that one dimension (and certainly no better than Martin) and he’s nearly as damaging on defense.
Down the stretch, with the game practically tied, Kevin Durant played the usual hero ball and the Thunder had just 1 assist during the whole 4th quarter! Coach Hollins used both Tayshaun Prince and Quincy Pondexter to defend Durant for most of the game, but then Tony Allen is sent to defend him during the fourth quarter and the Thunder struggle on offense with the Grizzlies' elite defense down the stretch.
Now onto tonight's game. From what I've seen on Game 4, I liked what the Thunder did for most of the game. They played better than in the previous games of the series and tonight with them being more aggressive, I expect them to have more FT attempts than Memphis, whose mindset will be in closing this series at home in Game 6. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for Oklahoma City and so, I'll be taking them in here tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 738 Oklahoma City Thunder (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
