Projected line: 177 points
Boston had a great chance to win the Game 2, but they couldn’t seal the deal first in regulation and then, later on Overtime. Their effort was unbelievable as Rondo played the entire game (full 53 minutes) and Garnett, Pierce and Allen all played at least 43 minutes. In these playoffs, the Celtics haven’t been able to sustain this kind of energy through games, so I expect them to struggle tonight. However, these struggles always occurred on the offensive end because Boston is a great defensive team regardless of their good or bad spot.
Boston made some good adjustments for game 2:
The key defensive adjustment by Doc Rivers was to put Kevin Garnett on Miami's center and Brandon Bass on Shane Battier, freeing Garnett to offer more help in the paint than he could while chasing Battier around the perimeter. The Celtics also stepped up their defensive pressure on Lebron James and Dwyane Wade, bringing double-team help. The Heat struggled to react to the change, leaving Wade particularly quiet-, as he scored just two points before halftime and without Miami's role players taking advantage.
Miami started the first quarter by shooting 5-20 FG and after crushing the Celtics at the rim in G1 with a 19-22 from the field performance, the Heat were held to just 14-26 FG in Game 2: just 53.9% FG! The problem was that both James and Wade responded to that by being extremely aggressive on the floor and went 24 and 11 times to the FT line! There is a lot of talk about the officiating in this series especially after the blown call late in overtime involving Wade on Rondo and I have the feeling that the referees will allow the Celtics to be more physical tonight.
On the other end, the Celtics were aggressive! Pierce didn’t attempt a single FT in game 1, but he had 6 in G2. The Celtics also attempted 30 shots at the rim, but this kind of aggression isn’t sustainable for them with just one day to rest.
Rajon Rondo was unbelievable. I don’t know what was more outstanding for him: hitting 10-12 from the line or shooting 8-10 FG from 16-23feet & 2-2 3pts! The Heat game plan for this series has been daring Rondo to shoot jumpers and he torched them in the first half. However coach Spoelstra didn’t panic out at the break. The Heat briefly put James on Rondo early in the second half and started switching pick-and-rolls to try to keep Rondo contained on the perimeter. Rather than double team Rondo, they just put different defenders on him by the second half to give him different looks and that slowed him down, as in the third quarter Rondo attempted just three shots and had just one assist! Rondo won’t surely duplicate this numbers tonight.
So, I expect Boston to struggle on the offensive end tonight. Their bench isn’t good as we know it, so they need their starters to perform in a high note. However these players are either old and/or banged up and due to the fact that they are a bad offensive rebounding team and don't have a good FT/rate, a drop off on their shooting% will be dramatic for them. Not surprisingly, after posting their best offensive ratings games in this postseason, the Celtics couldn’t duplicate the effort:
Game 4 vs. ATL: 114.7 offrates, G5 = 99.9
Game 3 vs. PHI: 124.8 offrates, G4 = 94.6
Game 5 vs. PHI: 120.2 offrates, G6 = 85.7
Both games in this series have been slow paced contests and being this one another half court game, I expect this contest to be in the 170’s points. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under tonight.
Boston had a great chance to win the Game 2, but they couldn’t seal the deal first in regulation and then, later on Overtime. Their effort was unbelievable as Rondo played the entire game (full 53 minutes) and Garnett, Pierce and Allen all played at least 43 minutes. In these playoffs, the Celtics haven’t been able to sustain this kind of energy through games, so I expect them to struggle tonight. However, these struggles always occurred on the offensive end because Boston is a great defensive team regardless of their good or bad spot.
Boston made some good adjustments for game 2:
The key defensive adjustment by Doc Rivers was to put Kevin Garnett on Miami's center and Brandon Bass on Shane Battier, freeing Garnett to offer more help in the paint than he could while chasing Battier around the perimeter. The Celtics also stepped up their defensive pressure on Lebron James and Dwyane Wade, bringing double-team help. The Heat struggled to react to the change, leaving Wade particularly quiet-, as he scored just two points before halftime and without Miami's role players taking advantage.
Miami started the first quarter by shooting 5-20 FG and after crushing the Celtics at the rim in G1 with a 19-22 from the field performance, the Heat were held to just 14-26 FG in Game 2: just 53.9% FG! The problem was that both James and Wade responded to that by being extremely aggressive on the floor and went 24 and 11 times to the FT line! There is a lot of talk about the officiating in this series especially after the blown call late in overtime involving Wade on Rondo and I have the feeling that the referees will allow the Celtics to be more physical tonight.
On the other end, the Celtics were aggressive! Pierce didn’t attempt a single FT in game 1, but he had 6 in G2. The Celtics also attempted 30 shots at the rim, but this kind of aggression isn’t sustainable for them with just one day to rest.
Rajon Rondo was unbelievable. I don’t know what was more outstanding for him: hitting 10-12 from the line or shooting 8-10 FG from 16-23feet & 2-2 3pts! The Heat game plan for this series has been daring Rondo to shoot jumpers and he torched them in the first half. However coach Spoelstra didn’t panic out at the break. The Heat briefly put James on Rondo early in the second half and started switching pick-and-rolls to try to keep Rondo contained on the perimeter. Rather than double team Rondo, they just put different defenders on him by the second half to give him different looks and that slowed him down, as in the third quarter Rondo attempted just three shots and had just one assist! Rondo won’t surely duplicate this numbers tonight.
So, I expect Boston to struggle on the offensive end tonight. Their bench isn’t good as we know it, so they need their starters to perform in a high note. However these players are either old and/or banged up and due to the fact that they are a bad offensive rebounding team and don't have a good FT/rate, a drop off on their shooting% will be dramatic for them. Not surprisingly, after posting their best offensive ratings games in this postseason, the Celtics couldn’t duplicate the effort:
Game 4 vs. ATL: 114.7 offrates, G5 = 99.9
Game 3 vs. PHI: 124.8 offrates, G4 = 94.6
Game 5 vs. PHI: 120.2 offrates, G6 = 85.7
Both games in this series have been slow paced contests and being this one another half court game, I expect this contest to be in the 170’s points. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 181 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
