NBA 11/29 Advanced Stats Numbers

San Antonio at Miami							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
SA	27	17	32	24	100		94.52	104.63	0.51	18.09	26.83	22.50
MIA	22	25	26	32	105			112.34	0.52	9.58	17.07	18.60
Denver at Golden State							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DEN	25	35	26	19	105		95.17	111.85	0.56	14.85	23.08	11.63
GS	30	21	27	28	106			109.86	0.51	13.69	22.73	22.62

NFL Week 13 Premium Play 11/29: New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

NFL Week 13 - 301 New Orleans Saints @ 302 Atlanta Falcons

Projected Line: Atlanta by 6 points

A lot of people are expecting the Saints to have an upset win tonight, as not only they have been dominating the Falcons over the last seasons, as they are currently 5-6 on the season and with a loss tonight, they will begin to be a bit far from a wild card stop. However, Atlanta has a revenge spot for this contest and as they are clearly the better team out of the two this season, I believe the Falcons will in fact have a comfortable win on this contest.

If we take a look at the current line and having in consideration the typical home court edge of 3 points, the current line is saying that Atlanta and New Orleans have a similar level, while they are indeed very far from that. I won't even mention the difference between their records (10-1 vs 5-6), as Atlanta is clearly a better team than New Orleans in both offense and defense. Matt Ryan (#2 in completion percentage, #3 in yards per pass attempt, #8 in QB rating and #2 in third down conversion) is being more effective than Drew Brees (#14 in completion percentage, #9 in yards per pass attempt, #7 in QB rating and #6 in third down conversion), while the Falcons' pass defense (11/11 TD/INT ratio, #16 in completion percentage allowed, #21 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #10 in QB rating allowed and #13 in third down conversion allowed) is also being much better than the Saints' terrible pass defense (22/8 TD/INT ratio, #22 in completion percentage allowed, #32 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #29 in QB rating allowed and #21 in third down conversion allowed).

Some people may argue that New Orleans has a better running game than Atlanta, but this game won't be decided on the running game, like Atlanta's last week game in Tampa Bay wasn't, even though the Bucs have in Doug Martin a massive threat on the running game. The Falcons have revenge for this game, they are playing with a lot of momentum and confidence right now, they have a more effective passing game and their defense is certainly much better than the Saints' defense. Both teams will have their share of points tonight, but Atlanta's bigger ability in making big plays on third downs on offense and having defensive stops on defense make me believe that the Falcons are going to have a good win tonight by a difference of about one touchdown. Therefore, I'll be taking Atlanta in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 302 Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ -135 / 1.74 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/29: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 503 Denver Nuggets @ 504 Golden State Warriors

Projected Line: 196 points

This will be the third game between these two teams, with Denver having won the first two games. On the last game between these two teams, Denver had 18 PF, while Golden State had 30(!), with Denver being also very aggressive with 58 points in the paint and shooting 25-37 FG at the rim. Golden State is being a defensive rebounding team, with a good size on the inside and even a good rim defense. In that game, Kenneth Faried shot 4-8 FG, Kostas Koufos 1-3 FG and JaVale McGee 2-7 FG, while Denver grabbed "just" 11 offensive rebounds. The Warriors were able to limit the Nuggets' frontcourt, but they struggled in stopping the Nuggets' backcourt. The problem wasn't the outside shooting, but the fact that Denver's backcourt players would penetrate and shoot at the rim with ease, as Andre Iguodala shot 5-5 FG at the rim, Ty Lawson 4-5 FG and Danilo Gallinari 6-8 FG. This was due to a terrible game from Stephen Curry, while Harrison Barnes played just 15 minutes due to foul trouble. With Golden State grabbing the defensive boards and with them being a tough defense on the inside, they should be able to cause problems to the Nuggets' offense.

On the other side, after a good period, Denver's defense is coming from a poor game at Utah, on a back to back spot. The Nuggets have been protecting very well the paint, but at the expense of having a bad spot up defense. This is why Utah crushed them with 11-22 FG from 16-23 feet and 8-22 3pts! Even though Golden State has Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson on the backcourt, the truth is that they are just #24 on 3pts shooting with 32.5%! Their offensive strength has been their frontcourt, but against the Nuggets' good interior defense, it will be tough for them to have a good frontcourt production tonight. 

I expect Golden State to be very aggressive on defense, while Denver's defense is a tough matchup for the Warriors' offense, therefore I believe this game is going Under the total posted tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 11/28: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers

NBA - 721 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 722 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: 187 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Clippers' defense has been struggling lately in stopping the outside shooting of their opponents and that was very clear on their last game against the Hornets. New Orleans has no inside game whatsoever, but we all know that they can shoot well from the outside. With Ryan Anderson at the PF position, their whole game was based on get drive and kicked for treys repeatedly. The Clippers' frontcourt was planted near the basket and they simply gave too much space to the Hornets' shooters. New Orleans had poor shooting numbers, expect their ridiculous 15-25 3pts! 

This won't happen tonight against Minnesota, as the Wolves have Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love, so the Wolves' offense will try to pound the Clippers down low. However, this style of the Wolves' offense will help the Clippers' frontcourt defense as well. Minnesota is coming from a nice win at Sacramento last night, mostly due to their inside game with 18-28 FG at the rim and 5-10 FG from 3-9 feet, while they struggled on the outside. Both Kevin Love and Andrei Kirilenko played more than 40 minutes last night, so they won't be fully fresh tonight. 

The Clippers' offense hasn't been at a good level lately, with their bench also struggling. Minnesota's defense will have problems in defending Chris Paul, but with Minnesota's tough interior defense limiting the Clippers' frontcourt, it won't be easy for the Clippers to have a good offensive game tonight, as they have lost most of the offensive flow they showed early on the season. I expect a relatively low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 11/28: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 719 Houston Rockets @ 720 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 14 points

Oklahoma City's offense has been amazing. They are showing a great ball movement lately, something not usual for them and the key has been Russell Westbrook with a nice number of assists. The Thunder has been attacking well on the inside, but it's specially on the perimeter where they've been good: 66% 3pts eFG% on the last seven games! Tonight the Thunder will be fired up, as they will be facing James Harden for the first time since he got traded to the Rockets.

Houston is coming from a blowout win last night, but where they didn't rest their starters: James Harden played 44 minutes, Chandler Parsons 42 minutes, Jeremy Lin 38 minutes and Omer Asik 36 minutes! Houston traveled to Minnesota early on Wednesday to pay respects to coach Kevin McHale and attend the funeral for his daughter, Sasha, and will then travel to Oklahoma City to play Harden's former team at 8 p.m. later tonight. The Rockets are going to be tired and emotionally spent and even though I know they will want to win tonight's game to dedicate the win to their coach, Oklahoma City at home will want to squash them and with the Rockets having no depth on their bench, they won't handle Oklahoma City's huge pace tonight. I believe the Thunder will have a blowout win and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 720 Oklahoma City Thunder (-10,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/28: New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA - 713 New York Knicks @ 714 Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Line: 198 points

The Knicks' spot for tonight is very similar to the horrible spot the Nets are also having. We are talking about 6 games in 9 days plus the fact that they are coming from a very demanding game both mentally and physically against the Nets, where Carmelo Anthony played 50 minutes, Tyson Chandler 45 minutes and Raymond Felton 42 minutes! The Knicks' offense only existed on that game via Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler. Without Jason Kidd, they had no ball movement, with just 14 assists. Their isolation plays didn't work with just 3-13 FG and 0.56 PPP! The Knicks could only score on offensive rebounds mostly due to Tyson Chandler, while their outside numbers were poor with 6-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-21 from 3pts! 

 

I believe Carmelo Anthony will still be tired tonight, while Milwaukee is a top defensive rebound team, so there won't be a lot of chances for Tyson Chandler to score on second chance points. So, this is a fade alert spot for the Knicks' offense that has no offensive flow without Jason Kidd on the court!

On the other side, Milwaukee is coming from an improbable comeback win in Chicago, where Brandon Jennings played, even though he was clearly limited physically. The Bucks' starters were outplayed by Chicago, until their second unit brought the Bucks back to the game, with Ersan Ilyasova finally having a good game! Chicago dominated 75% of the game, but after Milwaukee's run on the fourth quarter, coach Thibodeau was forced to re-enter his starters that had tired legs and they got outplayed by Milwaukee's fresh legs! For tonight's matchup, Milwaukee won't be able to take advantage of the Knicks' main defensive struggle at the rim, where they are allowing 67% FG. Milwaukee doesn't have a dominant post player, so the Knicks won't be pounded down low. The Bucks are a jump shooting team, so this should give a bit of relief to the Knicks defense. 

I believe the Knicks will struggle on offense tonight, while they should be able to do a decent job against the Bucks' jump shooting offense, therefore I'm not expecting a high scoring game tonight. So, looking at the current totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/28: Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls

NBA - 711 Dallas Mavericks @ 712 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: 187 points

Dallas is coming from a loss in Philadelphia last night, where Chris Kaman (9-13 FG and 20 points), Elton Brand (17 points) and Shawn Marion (17 points and 8 rebounds) had good games. Darren Collison looked quite impressive on defense, while the Mavericks as a team looked considerably more energetic and that showed on the scoreboard. Dallas' frontcourt played very well on offense, but they were clearly outrebounded. 

But I doubt that Dallas' veteran frontcourt can replicate their good offensive performance tonight, on a back to back spot. Dallas has been a good team on transitions, but by being squashed on the rebounds on defense, I doubt they will have a lot of chances to  score fast break points tonight. The Mavericks has been a jump shooting team with good ranks on spot ups, pick and roll roll man and post ups, but they will faced the good Bulls defense on these three areas: #3, #7 and #1 respectively! Dallas' backcourt won't also have an easy game tonight against the Bulls good defense.

Chicago is coming from an incredible loss against Milwaukee! The Bulls' bench struggled and coach Thibodeau gave big minutes to the starters that ended the game extremely tired. Chicago will have a clear edge on the inside, but I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas uses a zone defense in here to force the Bulls to shoot from the perimeter, where they are one of the worst teams in the league this season! 

I believe the Bulls will be able to have a good defensive game tonight, while Dallas should also be able to limit Chicago's frontcourt edge to force them to shoot from the perimeter, where they aren't good. I expect a relatively low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 11/28: Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics

NBA - 705 Brooklyn Nets @ 706 Boston Celtics

Projected Line: Boston by 10 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This is just a horrible spot for Brooklyn! After last Monday's make up game against the Knicks, Brooklyn has played six games over the last 9 days. They are coming from a very tough game both physically and mentally against the Knicks that even went to overtime, so this is really a tough spot for them tonight. Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace and Brook Lopez all played more than 40 minutes, so this is really a big letdown spot for the Nets tonight.

This is a revenge game for Boston, as they lost in Brooklyn on a game where Rajon Rondo didn't play, but still the Celtics fought for the game. The Celtics have been making a bigger effort to rebound well over the last two games, as they weren't massively outrebounded by the Thunder and the Magic! They are coming from a game in Orlando, where they outscored the Magic by 60-34 and outrebounded them by 17-10 in the offensive glass. Boston also shot 24-35 FG at the rim and even with an average outside shooting game, they were able to get the win due to an offensive rebounding and points in the paint improvement. 

With Rajon Rondo leading the Celtics' offense against a tired Nets team that will be slow tonight in closing out in the perimeter, I can expect Boston to have a good offensive game and outplay Brooklyn, who is indeed on a very tough spot tonight. I'm taking the Celtics in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 706 Boston Celtics (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/28: San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic

NBA - 703 San Antonio Spurs @ 704 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: 201 points | San Antonio by 4 points

With San Antonio playing with a 3-guards rotation, Orlando will also be able to play with an undersized lineup of Arron Afflalo, J.J. Redick and Jameer Nelson. With a good frontcourt with Glen Davis and Nikola Vucevic, Orlando has a very underrated offense! They have a good ball movement, always being able to get some great looks on the outside and on their last game against Boston, they shot 9-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 11-26 from 3pts! Their problem was on the inside with just 14-30 FG at the rim, but the truth is that Orlando impressed again on offense, with a lot of variety on their plays and with some great cuts once again! The Magic have been showing great mentality, even while losing and coach Jacque Vaughn has been a positive surprise, especially on the in-game adjustments! It's not easy at all to blow out an healthy lineup of the Magic in Orlando!

On the other hand, San Antonio is ending tomorrow a road trip with a game in Miami against the Heat. They are coming from a win in Washington, where they dominated the Wizards in the second half with a great offensive game in both the paint and the perimeter, while Washington simply couldn't take a big advantage of the Spurs' rebounding problems. Barring some occasional problems in games against the Clippers and at Toronto, San Antonio has been good on offense lately, with their Big 3 playing well whenever it's necessary. They will have a size edge against Orlando, a team that got completely crushed by Boston in the paint on their last game by getting outscored 34-60 at the paint, while also getting outrebounded 10-17 on the offensive glass. 

I expect a good offensive game for both teams tonight, with Orlando being more competitive than the current lines are predicting them to be. Therefore, I'll be taking both Orlando and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Orlando Magic (+8) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 11/28: Washington Wizards @ Portland Trailblazers

NBA - 701 Portland Trailblazers @ 702 Washington Wizards

Projected Line: 190 points

Portland is coming from a loss in Detroit, where their defense struggled once again in both the PG position and the paint. This is why Greg Monroe had 8-16 FG, 20 points and 10 rebounds, while Brandon Knight had 9-17 FG and 26 points. Detroit shot 25-34 FG at the rim, while shooting 9-9 FG in transitions and 7-8 FG in cuts. The Blazers had a big game from LaMarcus Aldridge, but they need a better Damian Lillard for them to win the game (4-18 FG and 4-14 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays). On the other hand, Washington is coming from another loss, this time at home against the Spurs. The game was close until half time, but then San Antonio had a great offensive game with 20-25 FG at the rim and 13-23 3pts! Washington dominated the boards, but without Nene playing, the Wizards didn't have any big man coming off the bench for the Wizards to remain competitive. Washington looked good on pick and rolls on offense, but they had too much volume on outside shooting for the little talent they have and so, they were eventually completely outscored by the Spurs' great offense.

On tonight's contest, I believe both teams should be able to have nice defensive performances. Normally centers are a concern for Portland, but Emeka Okafor isn't a big danger on offense. The same thing about A.J. Price and the Blazers' poor defense at the PG position. Washington also doesn't shoot near the basket, so they won't maximize Portland's problems in defending near the basket. On the other hand, Portland's offense is very dependent from their pick and rolls, where they are #2 with 0.83 PPP and also their transition plays, where they are #5 in the league. However, Washington is #1 on pick and roll ball handler defense and so, they should be able to limit Portland's offense tonight. The Wizards have also been struggling on their interior defense, but their perimeter defense has been quite good and this is why they defend pick and rolls so well.

I believe both teams will struggle in taking advantage of the defensive problems of their opponent and therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here. I'm taking the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/28: Charlotte Bobcats @ Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte  at Atlanta

NBA - 707 Charlotte Bobcats @ 708 Atlanta Hawks Projected Line: 198 points Atlanta is clearly showing better chemistry in both ends of the floor lately. They have the following small lineup confirmed for tonight: Al Horford - Josh Smith - Kyle Korver - DeShawn Stevenson - Jeff Teague. In 68 minutes on court together, this lineup is averaging an offensive rate of 127 and a defensive rate of 92! Their initial troubles were more related to the little volume of offense that Al Horford was getting plus Atlanta's bad perimeter shooting, but the truth is that Al Horford has been elected player of the week, while Atlanta's backcourt is getting better lately, as shown on their last game against the Clippers. Jeff Teague was very good in that game with 19 points and 11 assists, while Lou Williams had 18 points coming off the bench. The Hawks are playing on a decent pace, while being super aggressive looking for turnovers and this is why they are #1 in the league in transition points! Atlanta will have a clear edge with Al Horford on the inside tonight and so, the Hawks will be able to spread the floor with shooters and make the Bobcats heavily struggle on defense. On the last game between these two teams, Al Horford was the key factor for the Hawks' win, as he took advantage of an easy matchup to shoot 11-11 FG at the rim! This edge forced Charlotte to overhelp and with that, Atlanta could spread the floor to get good looks on the outside as well: 11-22 3pts! I expect the same to happen tonight, as Atlanta is really a tough matchup for Charlotte! The Bobcats are coming from a huge blowout loss at Oklahoma City, where they were already down by 40 points at halftime! Charlotte had a huge letdown, with their guards being tired and not being able to create any kind of offense. Kemba Walked played 47 minutes, Ramon Sessions 41 minutes, Ben Gordon 31 minutes and Byron Mullens 46 minutes against Washington in the previous game and they just couldn't do a thing against the Thunder on the following game. I expect a bounce back from them tonight, with both Kemba Walker and Ramon Sessions in being much more aggressive tonight. The first game of this series was a run and gun game and for tonight, I expect a similar scenario with Atlanta's improved offense and Charlotte on an aggressive bounce back mode being able to have decent offensive games tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 11/27: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings

NBA - 507 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 508 Sacramento Kings

Projected Line: Minnesota by 3 points

Minnesota is 0-5 on their last five games and they are desperate to win tonight. From these last five losses, I'm going to concentrate just on the last three, as the first two losses were against Charlotte and Golden State, in two games where Minnesota was shorthanded with Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love. On these last three games, Minnesota had no time to adapt to the fact that Kevin Love was back. He suddenly recovered from his injury against Denver last Wednesday and then they played at Portland last Friday and at Golden State last Saturday. But for this game, they had two days to rest. 

On their last three losses against Denver, Portland and Golden State, Minnesota was leading the game in halftime in all three games. Their problem was their poor execution down the stretch, where Minnesota lost focus and the players wanted Kevin Love to step it up and carry the team, when he isn't at 100% to do that right now. Now that they had some days without games, the Wolves finally had a practice and Rick Adelman said after practice that it's clear Love's conditioning, his timing and his shot just aren't back yet and suggested Love's teammates probably deferred to him too much in Saturday's fourth quarter when they should have moved the ball better.

I expect Minnesota to be better prepared for tonight. On offense, their problems were clear. On defense, their opponents against Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic shoot very little from near the basket with just 24, 21 and 19 FG attempts at the rim on the Wolves' last three games. They will face Sacramento tonight, a team that is coming from a nice home win against Utah, where they dominated down low with 22-28 (79%) FG at the rim! Their improved offense lately is related to their improved efficiency on shooting down low, as they have shot 76-106 (72%) FG at the rim on their last four games. But against this new defensive structure with Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Love and Andrei Kirilenko, I believe Sacramento will struggle to score on the inside today, something that will immediately cause a lot of problems on Sacramento's offense.

The Kings are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league with a defensive rebound rate of just 69.1% and they are an easy target for Minnesota's great offensive rebounding skills, a team that has grabbed 17, 17 and 11 offensive rebounds in their last three games, where Kevin Love has already played. With Minnesota being hungry tonight to get the win and with a very favorable matchup for them, I expect the Wolves to finally get back to the winning road tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Minnesota Timberwolves (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/27: Dallas Mavericks @ Philadelphia 76ers

NBA - 501 Dallas Mavericks @ 502 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Line: 188 points

After having gone to overtime against the Thunder, Philadelphia didn't show any tiredness from the perimeter on a back to back game against Phoenix and they had their most efficient game of the season from the outside. In fact, not even the fact that they were facing a poor interior defensive team like Phoenix changed their style and the truth is that the Sixers tried just 14 shots at the rim. Philadelphia kept being a jump shooting team, but this time they had an excellent game with 11-26 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-19 from 3pts! Jrue Holliday was the main reason for this great performance with 13-21 FG, 33 points, 13 assists and just 2 turnovers! Therefore, I expect the Sixers to not explore Dallas' interior defense problems as well. The problem for the Sixers is that Dallas has a good perimeter defense and they are coming from a humiliating home loss against the Lakers, where their defense simply didn't exist. Rick Carlisle has already mentioned that he expects a defensive bounce back from his team tonight:

“Nobody likes getting beat by 30 points, especially at home. That’s not how we want to do business here. When that happens, we got to adjust and a lot of it is adjusting our disposition defensively.” 

Darren Collison is a good defender and with the Mavericks being a good defensive team against pick and roll ball handler, spot ups and transitions, I believe Dallas has a good spot to have a good defensive game tonight. On the other hand, Dallas' frontcourt has been very disappointing this season, while being a very poor rebounding team. They are being very dependent from what O.J. Mayo and Darren Collison can do on offense, but Philadelphia is an excellent perimeter defense team led by Jrue Holiday. With Dallas on a bounce back mode and with this game being very perimeter-oriented, but with both teams having good perimeter defenses, I expect this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 12 Premium Play 11/26: Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles

NFL Week 12 - 245 Carolina Panthers @ 246 Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Line: Carolina by 6 points

These two teams have very poor records (Carolina is 2-8, while Philadelphia is 3-7), but we can't even remotely say that these two teams have similar stories this season. Carolina is probably one of the best 2-8 teams ever in the league and also one of the most unlucky ones. Not only Carolina has had the toughest schedule in the league so far, as they actually defeated New Orleans and Washington on the road, while they should have also defeated Tampa Bay last week, after having already lost in the last second at Chicago and at Atlanta, two of the best teams in the league. Carolina is a 2-8 team that has been very competitive in almost every game and barring two losses against the Giants and the Broncos, they have been extremely competitive in all their losses, always losing their games by a difference of less than a touchdown to winning record teams such as Tampa Bay (twice), Atlanta, Chicago and Seattle. 

The reasons for this ability to stay competitive on all these games has to go with the fact that they have an average defense against both the pass and the running game, while also having a good pass rush that can put the opposing quarterback in a lot of pressure. They have depth and a lot of potential on the running game and even though Cam Newton has been struggling this season, the Panthers' passing game has a lot of verticality, as Cam Newton is #3 in the league in yards per pass attempt. They will be facing a completely out of sorts Eagles defense that has gone from being a great pass defense in the first weeks of the season to be one of the worst, with some unbelievable coverage errors. They are looking so lost on the field that even top notch defenders like CB Nnamdi Asomugha are clueless about their position on the field, while letting the opposing receivers have lots of space to have a big play. This is the kind of matchup that veteran WR Steve Smith loves to have and he will pound the Eagles' terrible secondary tonight. Carolina's running game has a lot of potential with Cam Newton himself plus running backs DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert, so even though they haven't been impressive lately, the truth is that Philadelphia's run defense is also struggling and I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina has a big game on the running department as well tonight.

But if things are tough on defense, they aren't any easier for Philadelphia's offense. With both starting QB Michael Vick and starting RB LeSean McCoy out with concussions, the Eagles' offense is now led by rookie QB Nick Foles and rookie RB Bryce Brown. Inserting two rookies in such key positions on a completely destroyed team is a pure recipe for disaster. Things only get even more disastrous when the offensive line is absolutely collapsed due to injuries and they have no chances of handling a Panthers' pass rush that is quite aggressive and that will surely hit Foles a considerable number of times tonight. Carolina has an underrated defense against both the pass and the run, so I don't expect Philadelphia to do anything tonight on offense. We are talking about a team that scored six points to the poor Redskins defense and they won't certainly score many more against a reasonable defense like the Panthers.

This is a great opportunity for Carolina to show the league that they are much better than their current record shows, as this is their last National TV game of the season. On the other hand, Philadelphia is absolutely desintegrated right now and I just don't see how they can stop the bleeding. They don't have anything working properly on their team and I just don't see how they can be competitive tonight against an underrated Panthers team. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for Carolina and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 245 Carolina Panthers (-3) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/26: New Orleans Hornets @ Los Angeles Clippers

NBA - 713 New Orleans Hornets @ 714 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: 185 points

Yesterday we took Denver against the Hornets, as New Orleans was on a bad spot and they don't have depth on their roster to play well on bad spots, especially when they are completely perimeter-oriented on their offense. Unfortunately for them, their spot for tonight isn't better, as this will be a final game of a road trip for them, while also being their third game in four nights and also a back to back game. Anthony Davis is still out and that doesn't help them at all.

The Clippers are returning home tonight after a road trip, but this isn't a good spot for them neither, as they had just one day off. New Orleans plays at an extreme slow pace, so this game will be a half court battle, with two teams on poor spots. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/26: Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 711 Denver Nuggets @ 712 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 194 points

Denver is currently living their best moment of the season and this has been due to a great interior defense. In fact, they are at the top of the league in that stat by allowing just 57% FG at the rim and only 54% FG on their last seven games! This is vital on a game against Utah's frontcourt, as without Mo Williams, Utah has a poor outside shooting and this puts a lot of pressure on their frontcourt players to carry the team's offense. But with Denver defending well at this area, they will struggle on offense tonight.

Denver will be playing a back-to-back game tonight and their third game in five nights, so this is a bad spot for them. They have been very inconsistent on their outside shooting, so they will have a lot of pressure on their frontcourt players to perform well. I expect this game to be quite physical and with neither team playing well on offense tonight, so I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 198,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 11/26: Charlotte Bobcats @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 709 Charlotte Bobcats @ 710 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 8 points

Oklahoma City is coming from three tough games against the Clippers, Boston and Philadelphia, so it's normal that they will relax a bit against Charlotte that can actually be a tough matchup for the Thunder! Oklahoma City has been very turnover prone and they have the second worse turnover rate of the league. Now against Charlotte's huge defensive pressure that turns them into a top team in creating turnovers, they will cause problems to the Thunder tonight.

Charlotte has been a poor defensive rebounding team, but Oklahoma City's system makes them a poor team in grabbing offensive rebounds. Charlotte's main problem on defense has been defending the center spot, as Al Horford showed by shooting 11-11 FG at the rim against them. However, on tonight's contest, they won't have problems against Kendrick Perkins. Therefore, the Bobcats will be able to put pressure on the perimeter, without getting pound on the inside. I like Charlotte's spot for tonight to make this game a bit closer than expected and so, I'll be taking the Bobcats in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Charlotte Bobcats (+11,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/26: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 707 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 708 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: 198 points | Memphis by 8 points

This is Memphis' first spot as a big favorite this season and so, it will be normal that so many games against top teams, they relax a bit. Note that last season, the Grizzlies went 0-6 ATS on home games where they were favored by double digits points and with Cleveland being without Kyrie Irving, it's easy for their opponents to simply overlook Cleveland right now. This is why both Orlando and even Miami struggled to defeat the Cavaliers straight-up! 

It's clear that Memphis will have a big edge on the inside against the Cavaliers' poor inside defense that has just Anderson Varejao has a quality frontcourt defender. Memphis has been struggling on shooting near the basket this season, but against a team that has been allowing 76% FG at the rim, I expect Memphis to improve their numbers near the basket today.

On the other hand, Memphis has been a top offensive rebounding team, but at the same time, they have been terrible on defensive rebounding. This will give a good chance for Cleveland to grab offensive rebounds and score second chance points. I expect a lazy effort from Memphis tonight and this will mean that they will have bad close outs to the perimeter, allowing Cleveland to have good outside shooting numbers tonight. Memphis will solve the game down the stretch, but I don't believe they will cover such a large spread of 12.5 points tonight. I also expect this game to be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking both Cleveland and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Cleveland Cavaliers (+12,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/26: Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls

NBA - 705 Milwaukee Bucks @ 706 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: Chicago by 1 point

This is a home-home series, as Chicago won at Milwaukee last Saturday. Chicago's frontcourt destroyed Milwaukee down low, who were without Samuel Dalembert. Joel Przybilla played for 17 minutes and looked terrible, while Ersan Ilyasova struggled on offense and got outplayed by Carlos Boozer on defense. Chicago won the game via free throws and offensive rebounds, even though they shot worse than 40% FG!

So, what will be different for today? Not only Samuel Dalembert will play, as rookie John Henson will also play and these two players will make Milwaukee make the boards fight be much closer tonight. With Milwaukee being aggressive, I expect them to make this game very close against a Bulls offense that hasn't been shooting well. Therefore, I see a lot of value on the underdog and so, I'll be taking Milwaukee in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Milwaukee Bucks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Play 11/26: San Antonio Spurs @ Washington Wizards

NBA - 701 San Antonio Spurs @ 702 Washington Wizards

Projected Line: San Antonio by 3 points

We have a game tonight between the winless Wizards and the top team of San Antonio. However, I believe the terrible spot of the Spurs can't be overlooked. For the second game in a row, San Antonio was completely outrebounded by having grabbed just 39.33% and 43.15% on their last two games! This is the problem of playing with a 3-guards lineup. Yesterday, San Antonio would have lost at Toronto if it wasn't for a ridiculous game by Andrea Bargnani. However, the remaining frontcourt players of the Raptors had great games with Ed Davis shooting 7-11 FG and Jonas Valanciunas 9-13 FG. 

Yesterday's double overtime game forced a big effort from three starters: Tim Duncan played 41 minutes, Tony Parker 46 minutes and Danny Green 48 minutes! Gregg Popovich doesn't feel every comfortable with his bench right now and this is why Matt Bonner played just 6 minutes and Patty Mills 5 minutes yesterday! Tim Duncan's energy will be questionable at least and even though Washington's identity isn't defined yet, they will use their best lineup in my opinion, with Emeka Okafor, Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Ariza, Bradley Beal and A.J. Price.

Unlike San Antonio, Washington dominated the boards on their last two games by grabbing 60.45% and 60.73% of the rebounds. I believe Washington will have clear edges tonight in terms of rebounds and energy and so, the Wizards should be able to fight off San Antonio tonight, even though the Spurs have a clear edge in terms of identity and talent. I expect a tight game tonight and so, I'll be taking Washington in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Washington Wizards (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA 11/25 Advanced Stats Numbers

San Antonio at Toronto								Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	OT	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
SA	24	25	20	19	23	111		92.53	99.37	0.47	9.73	13.73	14.56
TOR	25	24	21	18	18	106			94.73	0.39	9.73	27.42	18.18
Detroit at New York								Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T			PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DET	22	22	28	28	100			91.83	106.64	0.53	18.57	27.03	21.79
NY	32	32	22	35	121				134.60	0.59	10.61	26.32	35.44
Portland at Brooklyn								Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T			PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
POR	27	23	20	15	85			90.70	95.49	0.48	17.70	22.50	12.82
BK	25	21	24	28	98				106.07	0.45	10.60	40.48	16.30
Phoenix at Philadelphia								Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T			PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
PHO	20	21	34	26	101			90.20	110.98	0.49	11.56	25.00	22.89
PHI	23	23	34	24	104				116.34	0.54	8.07	15.79	20.99
Boston at Orlando								Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	OT	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
BOS	28	30	22	22	14	116		95.08	108.51	0.48	11.69	34.69	14.29
ORL	22	26	34	20	8	110			106.73	0.52	16.19	22.73	18.89
New Orleans at Denver								Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T			PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
NO	23	18	20	23	84			87.86	94.29	0.42	12.99	31.91	14.12
DEN	26	25	32	19	102				117.74	0.57	15.11	26.47	22.67