NBA Free Premium Plays 10/31: Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers

Golden State  at LA Clippers

NBA - 503 Golden State Warriors @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers Play #2 & #3 The Clippers got crushed on the fourth quarter of their opening game against the Lakers. Of course the main reason for that was their poor defense, something that Doc Rivers immediately mentioned after the game. "I thought we broke down a lot defensively" Doc Rivers said. "All the things we've worked on that we do in the drill, then when the lights came on, we didn't do them and they took advantage of them." So, the key question for this game is if the Clippers will be able to adjust defensively with just one practice in the middle between games. I believe that's highly unlikely and I really think that the Clippers will continue to struggle on defense on their following games. Doc Rivers is trying to implement the same defensive system that he used in Boston, a system that had Kevin Garnett as the key defensive player, who was amazing on team help defensive coverage.  That role in LA has to be performed by Blake Griffin, who lacks Garnett's excellent defensive skills (so far). Worse than that, the Clippers have J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley on the backcourt, two players who aren't explosive enough on closing out on the opposing shooters. This is why the Lakers shot 14-29 3pts against them and that they will get an even tougher task tonight against the team that was #1 on 3pts% last season. Besides that, the Warriors showed already yesterday that they have a great offensive flow and two of the best shooters in the league in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors absolutely crushed the Lakers last night and so, they were able to rest players for today. This was vital for them, as their lack of depth is the team's main weakness, especially with Harrison Barnes injured. On the other hand, the Clippers' offense looked good against the Lakers, with a good ball movement (27 assists) and 19 fast break points. Their only problem was the poor 13-23 FT, with Blake Griffin struggling with 3-10 FT! Also Chris Paul didn't impress a lot with 5-13 FG, something weird as he had an excellent offensive matchup in that game. The Clippers are still struggling on their second unit especially due to the lack of a reliable big man. In fact, from the bench, Ryan Hollins was the only frontcourt player that entered the court and only for four minutes! Mark Jackson will possibly save Andre Iguodala to defend Chris Paul on the fourth quarter, something that could make Paul struggle a bit, especially as the Clippers don't have a perimeter defensive stopped like Eric Bledsoe last season to hide Chris Paul from having to defend Curry or Klay. I expect a close and offensive minded contest in here, with both teams showing more efficiency on offense than on defense. I believe the Warriors are being clearly underrated in here as well and so, I'll be taking both Golden State and the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Golden State Warriors (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 10/30

NBA - 715 Indiana Pacers @ 716 New Orleans Pelicans

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

From what I watched during the preseason, the Hornets were one of the biggest surprises on offense. They got a huge upgrade during the offseason with the arrival of Jrue Holiday, who has been pressuring a lot the opposing ball handler, but it was on offense especially on pick and rolls that he looked very impressive. His explosion is also a huge upgrade over the slow footed Greivis Vasquez. With him and Ryan Anderson on the perimeter with Anthony Davis as the roll man, the Hornets are now able to use explosive pick and roll plays on their offense. Anthony Davis looked good in the preseason, just like Eric Gordon. On the other hand, Al-Farouq Aminu is being used as the team's wild card, with the main goal of crashing the boards when his team mates are shooting the ball. The Pelicans also don't seem to want to play at the slow tempo that they used to play in the previous season and so, I believe they will push the pace today, especially on a game against Indiana that is on a back to back spot.

We all know that the Pacers are an elite defensive team, but they had an easy task yesterday. I had mentioned how Nikola Vucevic would struggle against Roy Hibbert and the truth is that Indiana ended the game with 18(!) blocks! But Indiana will come from facing Vucevic/Maxiell to Smith/Anderson, a much tougher matchup for the Pacers, especially on the second night of a back to back. On the other side, the Pelicans' defense didn't impress me on the preseason, especially their interior defense. This is terrible news for them, as they will face a frontcourt with Roy Hibbert, David West and Luis Scola. Even though they scored just 17 points in the second quarter, Indiana still ended the game with 97 points scored. Paul George is now clearly a league star and Indiana has the necessary conditions to be a competent offensive team in here.

Last season this matchup was quite different, as the Pelicans were the slowest paced team in the league and lacked explosion on the backcourt. On the other hand, Indiana had a quite inconsistent offense. Things will be different tonight. The pace will be faster and so, this totals line is way too low for this contest. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 719 Memphis Grizzlies @ 720 San Antonio Spurs

Play #2

Memphis didn't have a good preseason. Their new Head Coach wants to change the team's offensive philosophy in order for them to stop being so post-centric, but such change takes time to be well executed and looking at their preseason, the Grizzlies are still far from what their coach wants them to be on offense. On the other hand, Memphis continues having the same defensive principles and so, we can expect them to continue being one of the best defensive teams in the league.

San Antonio didn't make a lot of changes on the preseason and they showed last season in the Conference Finals that they are indeed a tough matchup for Memphis by sweeping them. Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter defend the Grizzlies' frontcourt Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph extremely well and with the Grizzlies being currently on a process of offensive adjustments that seems to be way behind schedule, I believe that the Spurs defense will do a very good job on them. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 721 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 722 Utah Jazz

Play #5

Utah would never be a great team this season, but Trey Burke's injury makes things even tougher for them. Therefore, the Jazz has very little offensive skills on the wings, if we exclude Gordon Hayward. For a team that has two solid young post players, but who need to be fed on the right spots in order to be any kind of offensive threats, things will be quite tough for Utah's offense all season long, but especially at the start of the season. So, the only chance the Jazz have to be effective on offense right now is via second chance points and points in the paint. The problem is that they will face a Thunder team that plays with a typical frontcourt formed by Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka that will be a very tough matchup for Utah's frontcourt. I've been criticizing Scott Brooks's inflexibility in not playing small ball, but on this specific case, Oklahoma City's usual lineup has a great matchup to be dominant on defense.

The Thunder are still without Russell Westbrook and with Kevin Martin leaving during the off-season, I don't believe they will be an elite offense at the start of this season. They are way too dependent from Kevin Durant on offense, who will be even more carefully guarded by his opponents than usual. Oklahoma City has some young players with a lot of potential, but they will have a bad spot tonight by playing on the road on a very tough environment like Utah. Therefore, I believe this game will be a grind out game with Utah trying to stay competitive on this way, as they really lack offensive skills to do it on any other way. I believe this totals line is overrated given the struggles that both offenses will have at the start of the season and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 725 Denver Nuggets @ 726 Sacramento Kings

Play #3 & #4

The Kings were the second worst defensive team in the league and so, the team hired during the off-season Mike Malone to be their new head coach for two reasons: improve the locker room's discipline and the team's defense, as Malone did an excellent job at Golden State last season in putting the Warriors playing some decent defense at last. I know Preseason doesn't mean a lot, but Sacramento ended its preseason games with good defensive numbers! In just two games they had defensive ratings above 100! On offense, the Kings showed a little bit more problems as Greivis Vasquez is still adapting to his new team and he also got injured. Anyway, the Kings seem to be a more disciplined team, as nobody got a technical foul during the preseason! Sacramento had a practice last Monday and coach Malone left a serious warning to his team there:

"The energy, the effort, the discipline, the focus just wasn't there for whatever reason." Mike Malone said. "I can't explain it. No excuse, no explanation. It was just a bad day for us, and we have to have a much better practice (today) heading into the regular season, three games in four nights."

This was an excellent mental play by Mike Malone to avoid his players to get cocky and he managed exactly that.

“John Salmons, unsolicited stepped up and said ‘Coach can I say something?’ Chuck Hayes said ‘Coach can I say something?’ You have two guys that have been in the league for 12 years, 10 years and they said all the right things. I said that’s when we have a chance to be great, when you start policing yourselves. I should not have to stop practice three times as a head coach. I’ll do it and I have no problem doing it but you guys need to get on each other. You guys want to be leaders, you want to have the season we all talk about having? Well demand it from yourself and once you do that, start demanding it from your teammates. The fact that John and Chuck said something was great. Then I got a few texts from different players on the team last night apologizing. They were fully aware.”

The Kings will host the Nuggets in here, a team that is way behind schedule on preparing for the new season, especially regarding team chemistry. Due to injuries and also the arrival of a new Head Coach, Denver is currently starting a lineup that was a disaster on preseason. The good news for Denver is that their second unit is very good with Andre Miller, Evan Fournier, Anthony Rudolph and Timofey Mozgov, but Ty Lawson's injury will probably force Coach Brian Shaw to use Miller for a considerable amount of time in here. Also none of the Nuggets' frontcourt players is really skilled enough to post up on a consistent basis, however Brian Shaw seems committed in having a high volume of post ups on his offense. Also note that Denver without Ty Lawson will struggle to score in transition, as all the Nuggets' quick players are injured/banged up: Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried! In fact, the Nuggets scored 32, 15, 16, 8, 11, 7 and 15 fast break points during the preseason. If we exclude those 32 fast break points against the slow and old Lakers, things didn't look good for the Nuggets.

With Ty Lawson's injury happening just during the last game of the preseason, Brian Shaw didn't have time to build a new game plan. Now against this improved Kings defense and with both offenses still struggling to adapt to new coaches and systems, I believe this totals line is overrated and so, I see excellent value to take the Under in here. Also with Denver being so dependent from Lawson, I believe Sacramento has the right edges to pick up a comfortable win in here and so, I'll be taking the Kings in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725/726 Under 205,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 726 Sacramento Kings (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 703 Brooklyn Nets @ 704 Cleveland Cavaliers

Play #6

I believe we have a clear case of public overreacting in here on the fact that Mike Brown (defensive-minded coach) is now once again Cleveland's coach. The line was at 197 points that is my projected line, but it's now at 194 points, so we have good value on the Over in here.

The problem for Cleveland is that their defense didn't look on preseason, while their new uptempo style will be a good edge against the slow footed Nets tonight. Offensively, the Cavaliers don't have a lot to worry about it. With Kyrie Irving as their starting PG and with Jarrett Jack coming off the bench, the Cavs will rely on pick and rolls to do their damage against the Nets. That's an area where in my opinion Cleveland will have success, as the Nets' frontcourt won't have the proper speed to rotate and protect their guards (Brook Lopez certainly won't leave his position in the painted area no matter what). Anderson Varejao is a solid finisher on pick and rolls, while Tristan Thompson is possibly the player that has impressed me the most with his evolution on the preseason, with his right-handed shooting stroke looking smooth and really effective. Cleveland will be a strong offensive rebounding team this season and Brooklyn with Brook Lopez and the veteran Kevin Garnett will struggle to be a decent defensive rebounding team. 

On the other side, I didn't really like Cleveland's overall defense on the preseason. Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters looked disinterested and sloppy to get back, something that will be explored by Deron Williams and Shaun Livingston, who impressed me on the preseason as well. With Brook Lopez having a normal edge down low over Cleveland's frontcourt, the Nets will have their usual inside out game that will be lethal, having in account the Cavs' poor perimeter defense. Also note that with Jason Kidd as their coach, the Nets are now playing faster than they were under Avery Johnson. I believe we have all the necessary ingredients for a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 717 Atlanta Hawks @ 718 Dallas Mavericks

Play #7

I believe that there aren't big differences between these two teams and so, Atlanta has some nice value at the current line. I watched some preseason games that involved these two teams and both Dallas and Atlanta showed a lot of inconsistency, while being unable to play solid long minutes of basketball. They looked sharp for some moments, but they just couldn't play well for a long amount of time.

Dallas will have three new starters in comparison with last season: Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis and Samuel Dalembert. Even though they are all at least decent players, they will need time to learn the team's system. During the preseason, I watched these players committing silly defensive errors that drove Coach Rick Carlisle crazy! On the other hand, Atlanta has a quite solid lineup. They don't have the proper depth to compete against the best teams in the league, but their starting unit has some potential edges on this matchup. Jeff Teague's speed will be a massive problem for Calderon's lack of lateral speed, while DeMarre Carroll will guard Monta Ellis in order to hide Kyle Korver defensively by putting him on Shawn Marion.

The Hawks will Paul Millsap and Al Horford have two finesse frontcourt players, like Dirk Nowitzki, but Dallas lack the players to abuse them on the down low. Behind Dalembert and Nowitzki, the Mavs have on their frontcourt depth, DeJuan Blair... I believe this game will be played by two quite similar teams, so I believe anything more than the usual homecourt edge for Dallas in here is overvaluing them. So, I'll be taking Atlanta tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Atlanta Hawks (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 10/30: Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Brooklyn  at Cleveland

NBA - 703 Brooklyn Nets @ 704 Cleveland Cavaliers Play #6 I believe we have a clear case of public overreacting in here on the fact that Mike Brown (defensive-minded coach) is now once again Cleveland's coach. The line was at 197 points that is my projected line, but it's now at 194 points, so we have good value on the Over in here. The problem for Cleveland is that their defense didn't look on preseason, while their new uptempo style will be a good edge against the slow footed Nets tonight. Offensively, the Cavaliers don't have a lot to worry about it. With Kyrie Irving as their starting PG and with Jarrett Jack coming off the bench, the Cavs will rely on pick and rolls to do their damage against the Nets. That's an area where in my opinion Cleveland will have success, as the Nets' frontcourt won't have the proper speed to rotate and protect their guards (Brook Lopez certainly won't leave his position in the painted area no matter what). Anderson Varejao is a solid finisher on pick and rolls, while Tristan Thompson is possibly the player that has impressed me the most with his evolution on the preseason, with his right-handed shooting stroke looking smooth and really effective. Cleveland will be a strong offensive rebounding team this season and Brooklyn with Brook Lopez and the veteran Kevin Garnett will struggle to be a decent defensive rebounding team. On the other side, I didn't really like Cleveland's overall defense on the preseason. Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters looked disinterested and sloppy to get back, something that will be explored by Deron Williams and Shaun Livingston, who impressed me on the preseason as well. With Brook Lopez having a normal edge down low over Cleveland's frontcourt, the Nets will have their usual inside out game that will be lethal, having in account the Cavs' poor perimeter defense. Also note that with Jason Kidd as their coach, the Nets are now playing faster than they were under Avery Johnson. I believe we have all the necessary ingredients for a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 10/29: Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 505 Los Angeles Clippers @ 506 Los Angeles Lakers

Play #3

This game will be a pure run and gun contest that will put the two LA teams head to head. Right now both teams look to be more "ready" on their offensive processes than on defense. I watched several games of the Clippers on the preseason and there are no doubts that they will be one of the best offensive teams in the regular season. Their offensive flow is already way superior with Doc Rivers than it was with Vinny Del Negro. They are now quicker in executing on offense, while they are moving a lot more off the ball. On the break, they keep being lethal as usual by averaging 22 fast break points per game on their last four games of the preseason.

Therefore, I believe that the Clippers won't have problems in scoring against the Lakers, who will be in my opinion one of the worst defensive teams in the league, especially while playing on a run and gun style. According to my preseason rankings stats, the Lakers were one of the fastest paced teams in the league and for this opening day game, coach Mike D'Antoni will use a small ball lineup with Pau Gasol, Shawne Williams, Nick Young, Steve Blake and Steve Nash. This lineup will be an easy opponent for the Clippers' offense and everything will start on the matchup between Chris Paul and Steve Nash.

However, the Lakers might surprise the Clippers on offense, as the Clippers' frontcourt defense hasn't been looking good. Pau Gasol looked pretty sharp physically on the preseason and I believe he will have a good performance in here. The Lakers will spread the floor with a lot of guards on the court and this will be problematic for the Clippers who will have to fit Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan on defending such a small lineup. Doc Rivers will eventually have to put Griffin at the Center position and set his team into a small lineup as well, but until then the Lakers will offer a lot of problems to the Clippers' defense.

I expect this game to have more than 200 points scored on a fast paced game, where both offenses will outstage both defenses. So, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 10/29: Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

NBA - 503 Chicago Bulls @ 504 Miami Heat

Play #2

Chicago looked really good on the preseason, mostly thanks to Derrick Rose returning in excellent form. He is showing a lot of aggressiveness on offense and going to the free throw line a lot. With Rose back, the Bulls are also scoring more points in transition, while Taj Gibson also surprised by being very confident on offense. Chicago is a much better team with Rose back and they went 8-0 on the preseason to show exactly that, while scoring 20, 15, 18, 11 and 13 fast break points on their last five games!

Joakim Noah is probable for this game and he is of course a much better solution on offense than Nazr Mohammed, especially regarding his flow on offense and passing skills. Looking at Miami's natural issues on rebounding due to their small lineups, Chicago will have a clear edge on offensive rebounding in here. However, the Heat also looked good on preseason with Dwyane Wade looking very well physically, helping the Heat in being an even more efficient offensive team. Of course they won't have an easy task against Chicago's elite defense, but I still believe Miami will do a good job on offense in here. Last season, the four regular season games between these two teams had totals lines of 189.5, 186, 186 and 190, so with Rose and Wade being at 100% right now, the totals line of 187 points is just too short. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 10/29: Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers

Orlando  at Indiana

NBA - 501 Orlando Magic @ 502 Indiana Pacers Play #1 We will have a lot of games this season with double digits lines, but a top team like Indiana won't be just a -11.5 points favorite many times against a lowly team like Orlando. I have no doubt that the Pacers will be once again a top team this season. I watched some of their preseason games and their defense will be once again a top 3 unit, while they are more inconsistent on offense but with Luis Scola and C.J. Watson coming off the bench, Indiana will also be a better offensive team than they were last season, especially considering how much Roy Hibbert struggled on offense during the first half of the past season. Matchup wise, Orlando couldn't have a worse matchup than Indiana on their season debut. The Magic will have a lot of problems on offense not only due to lack of talent, but also because their best player Nikola Vucevic will face the best defensive frontcourt in the league. This is why Vucevic could only have the following numbers against Indiana last season: @ IND 3/19: 31min, 4-12 FG 9pts and 11reb vs IND 03/08: 34min, 6-11 FG 12pts and 6 reb vs IND 01/16: 35min, 7-13 FG 16 pts and 15 reb I know we can't take the preseason very seriously, but Orlando committed 20.6 turnovers per game in those games and they will now face the best defensive team in the league. So, I don't expect things to work well for the Magic at all. On the other side, Indiana will have a clear mismatch at the PF position that they will explore without much problems. Orlando has both Glen Davis and Tobias Harris out for this game, so Moe Harkless and Andrew Nicholson will be the two available players that can play at the PF position. So, these two players will have to defend David West and then Luis Scola, good luck with that! Indiana showed in the preseason that they are already focused and that they are ready to play faster and more aggressive in order to force turnovers to their opponents. On their last three preseason games, they forced, 22, 20 and 25 turnovers that led to almost 20 fast break points per game in those games. This is something that should also happen in here, as Orlando doesn't have good ball handlers, something that makes them turnover prone. I have Indiana winning this game by at least 15 points and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Indiana Pacers (-11.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NFL Week 8 Premium Card 10/27

NFL Week 8 - 217 Buffalo Bills @ 218 New Orleans Saints

Projected Line: New Orleans by 14 points

Buffalo is coming from a mega phony win at Miami. Their offense is completely depleted right now with them being forced to start QB Thad Lewis, while their #1 RB C.J. Spiller is also out for today's game. Even their OL is clearly underperforming in comparison to the previous seasons and they are just #24 on pass protection. They keep playing at a very fast tempo, but with so many problems on offense, I don't see how they will be productive today against an underrated Saints defense that isn't no longer that terrible unit from the past season.

On the other hand, Buffalo's defense is yet to face a top offense like the Saints. They faced the Patriots without receivers available, the Panthers and their terrible playbook, the Jets, the one-dimensional Ravens, the terrible Browns offense, the also one-dimensional Bengals and finally, the poor Dolphins offense. Things will be completely different today and New Orleans won't have problems in scoring at home against the Bills, even if Jimmy Graham can't play today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Saints in here for an easy blowout win.  

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 218 New Orleans Saints (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker 

NFL Week 8 - 221 New York Jets @ 222 Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Line: 38 points

Cincinnati is coming from two road wins at Buffalo and at Detroit. Their game against the Bills (#1 fast paced team) went to overtime and then, they faced the Lions, a good pass offense team that saw Calvin Johnson have a Godlike second half in that game. On the other hand, the Jets are coming from a mega win on overtime against the Patriots, where they showed once again their conservative offense, with 33 pass plays and 52(!) rushing plays! Chris Ivory carried the football 34 times last week, so I believe he will struggle to make an impact today after such an effort last week. As usual, Cincinnati's defense is a top 10 team against both the pass and the run and so, I believe the Jets' offense will struggle in here, in a clear emotional letdown for them.

On the other hand, I don't expect the Bengals' offense to cause any issues to the Jets' defense on the running game. The main reason for that is the fact that the Jets' run defense has been insanely good this season, with a defensive rush DVOA of -46.9%, -50.1%, -52.5%, -35.9%, -23.7%, -27.6% and +11.1% on their games this season! A.J. Green is Cincinnati's main and almost unique target on offense and the Jets with Antonio Cromartie should limit Green decently today. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 221/222 Under 41,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 8 - 223 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 224 Oakland Raiders

Projected Line: 44 points

Terrelle Pryor is expecting to bounce back after a poor game at Kansas City. The spot is good for him, as he is coming from facing the best DL in the league and he will face the Steelers' defense that is the second worst in league in sacks. With pretty much everybody available on the Raiders' offense, I expect them to pick up a decent amount of points on a Steelers defense that isn't as good in the past, especially in handling mobile quarterbacks as Pryor. The Steelers are also just #23 on run defense, so Darren McFadden might have a big game today as well.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh's offense is starting to show some life signs. Ben Roethlisberger is starting to connect some good passes, while even the team's running game showed some production against the Ravens last week. Oakland's pass defense is quite poor by being #24 in the league and I expect the Steelers to pick up some huge passing plays in here. Therefore, I expect this game will be a relatively high scoring game like last season's game between these two teams was and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 223/224 Over 40,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 8 - 225 Washington Redskins @ 226 Denver Broncos

Projected Line: 54 points

I believe it's today that a game involving Denver will finally go Under the total posted. Peyton Manning is currently dealing with sprains in both ankles, including a right high-ankle sprain. He will now face a Redskins defense that is #8 in the league on sacks, so I believe the Broncos' passing game might have some surprising problems today. 

On the other hand, Denver's defense might be struggling a lot overall right now, but they are still #5 in the league on run defense, something that will neutralize most of the Redskins' offense. Also after losing for the first time this season, I expect the Broncos to make a bigger effort on defense today and eventually stopping Washington's offense will some success today. Therefore, I can't agree with such totals line in here and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 225/226 Under 59 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NFL Week 8 - 215 Cleveland Browns @ 216 Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Week 8 - 229 Green Bay Packers @ 230 Minnesota Vikings

***2-TEAM 6,5PTS TEASER***

Cleveland's offense is currently a disaster and the situation won't get any better while facing the Chiefs' elite defense. Jason Campbell will now start at QB, but he isn't a mobile QB and so, I expect the Chiefs' great pass rush to be all over him today. On the other hand, the Browns' running game continue to be poor as well, so I don't see how Cleveland will score a decent amount of points today. On the other hand, Cleveland's defense is a good unit, but with their offense lacking any kind of production today, this will allow Kansas City to start their drives in great positions to eventually score a decent amount of points and get another win for them.

Minnesota is another team that is struggling big time right now. Adrian Peterson is struggling since the team's bye week and Christian Ponder will now be back under center, as Josh Freeman is out with a concussion. The Vikings' offense was horrible last Monday and scored 0 points on offense (their points came from on a punt return) and I don't expect them to get a lot better tonight. On the other hand, the Vikings' defense is also struggling with their pass rush being quite ineffective, while their secondary is struggling with Harrison Smith. Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers' offense won't have problems in picking up the necessary amount of points to beat their divisional rivals on National TV tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 216 Kansas City Chiefs (-0,5) x 229 Green Bay Packers (-1) @ -130 / 1.77 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 8 Premium Play 10/24: Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Week 7 - 103 Carolina Panthers @ 104 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Line: 36  points

I expect a low scoring game tonight. With a rookie QB and RB that will start for the first time this season, the Bucs didn't have the proper time to prepare and put a solid offensive game plan against one of the the best defensive teams in the league. They are still winless so the effort will be questionable for the upcoming games but not for tonight's prime time game and having said that, Tampa Bay is a decent defensive team especially against the run where they are ranked #2 in DVOA which are good news against a Panthers team that is run oriented. I'm playing the Under as my Single Dime Play 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 103/104 Under 40 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

Miami Heat NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

MIAMI HEAT

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	90.7	23
Offense	112.3	2
Defense	103.7	9
Rebound	47.5	28

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	55.2	1	eFG%	48.7	9
TO%	13.7	13	TO%	14.8	4
Reb%	22.2	26	Reb%	27.0	23
FT%	22.4	6	FT%	20.0	13

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	11-3	114.6	107.8
December	10-5	113.1	106.0
January	8-5	113.7	102.8
February	12-1	121.4	107.1
March	17-1	114.5	101.1
April	8-1	113.0	104.0

The Heat had a fantastic season that ended with a back to back NBA championship. Even though Miami played extremely well throughout the season, they still needed a huge effort to beat the Spurs in one of the best NBA finals ever.

After having finally won a championship on the lockout season, Lebron James and the Heat didn’t have a big incentive to impress on the regular season, as after all their “real season” would only start in April. However, Miami set an extra gear in February and ended up having the second best winning streak in league history, while ending the season with a franchise best of 66-16 record and clearly the best record in the league.

Miami was by far the best shooting team in the league with an impressive mark of 55.2% eFG% and everything started with LeBron James playing the whole season in a different planet from everybody else. Defensively, Miami’s aggressive approach on the opposing ball handlers was notorious, with the Heat ending the season by being the #4 ranked best team on creating turnovers that would usually end on phenomenal transition plays. Due to the fact that they played constantly with undersized lineups with Chris Bosh at the Center position and LeBron James at Power Forward, the Heat weren’t naturally a good rebounding team during the season. The fact that they were just #26 on offensive rebounding is perfectly normal for a team that shot 56% eFG%! On the other hand, their defensive rebounding issues were clear against imponent frontcourt units. This is why Miami lost two games in the regular season against Indiana, one game against Memphis and had two losses against Chicago.

Even though they had a normal lazy approach against some lowly teams, the truth is that Miami had a 36-4 record against losing teams and an even more impressive 15-1 record in back to back games that are normally tough physical spots.

During their historical 27-games winning streak, Miami just toyed with their opponents by setting an extra gear only when it was needed. They were down by one point with four minutes to go at home against Portland, but they outscored the Blazers 16-2 in those four minutes. Then, they were down by 27 points in the third quarter in Cleveland, just to outscore the Cavs by 30 points in the last 19 minutes of the game!

Miami added Chris Andersen to the roster and Birdman was indeed a key player in several moments of the season. He was especially a huge upgrade on offense in comparison to Joel Anthony, who disappeared on the team’s depth chart as soon as Andersen joined the Heat.

Not even when Miami decided to rest their top players at the end of the regular season, they stopped winning. A team with a starting lineup formed by Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Rashard Lewis, Mike Miller and Norris Cole was good enough to win in San Antonio against the Spurs’ best team. In fact, the Heat won their last eight regular season games, while resting their key players a lot.

In the playoffs, Miami quickly dumped Milwaukee in four games, while resting Dwyane Wade in the last game of the series. Then, in the following round against Chicago, the Heat had much more problems of course, as they had already struggled against powerful frontcourts in the regular season, but after losing the Game 1 of the series at home, they won the four following games and went into the Conference final.

In the Eastern final against Indiana, Miami was unable to win back to back games, with the series being decided only on Game 7. Miami struggled on offense against the best perimeter defense in the league, while also having issue on rebounding against the powerful Pacers frontcourt. Indiana won the boards battle on the first six games of the series, with the Heat being outrebounded by 99-147 in the three games of the series where they played on the road! Roy Hibbert was a beast down low, but Miami’s aggressive defense in pressuring the ball handler managed to create 18, 21 and 21 turnovers in the last three games of the series. With Miami finally winning the boards battle against Indiana on the decisive Game 7, they were able to blowout the Pacers in that decisive game to win the Conference title.  

On the Finals against San Antonio, the whole series was a rollercoaster of emotions and adjustments made by both coaches. If Gregg Popovich is rightfully called an elite coach, then Erik Spoelstra needs to be recognized as elite as well for what he has done over the last two seasons with Miami.

Offseason Report:

With a team that won the last two NBA championships and that reached the Finals in the last three seasons, Pat Riley didn’t have a lot to do on the offseason. He just needed to make sure that the main core of the team would remain together.

For cap salary reasons, Mike Miller was amnestied, while Pat Riley convinced Ray Allen to play one more season after being the team’s hero in the decisive Game 6 in the Finals.

But Riley’s main goal for this off-season was to find a big man that could help the team’s interior play and Greg Oden was picked for that job, even though he has several health concerns around him. As a gamble without any risk for the team, Michael Beasley was also added to the roster on an unguaranteed contract.

Soccer Champions League Free Premium Card 10/23

Champions League - Shakhtar Donetsk @ Bayer Leverkusen

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2,5 @ -140 / 1.71 on Bookmaker

Champions League - Juventus @ Real Madrid

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 3 @ -111 / 1.90 on Pinnacle OR @ -116 / 1.86 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Juventus (+1) @ -139 / 1.72 on Pinnacle OR @ -140 / 1.71 on 5Dimes

Champions League - Olympiakos @ Benfica

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Benfica (-0,5) @ -124 / 1.81 on Pinnacle OR @ -125 / 1.80 on 5Dimes

Atlanta Hawks NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

ATLANTA HAWKS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	92.6	12
Offense	104.8	18
Defense	104.4	10
Rebound	48.1	26

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	51.7	6	eFG%	49.6	15
TO%	14.2	25	TO%	14.2	10
Reb%	22.2	27	Reb%	26.4	13
FT%	17.4	28	FT%	18.1	4

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	9-5	105.0	101.4
December	10-5	108.7	107.0
January	7-9	105.3	106.6
February	7-4	112.3	107.4
March	8-10	105.0	106.4
April	3-5	107.8	109.6

On their first season without Joe Johnson and with no major signing, the Hawks had a fairly positive season. They started the season very well by winning 20 of their first 30 games, but then they just couldn't keep the same level and when their sixth man Louis Williams suffered a season-ending injury, the Hawks became one of the easier matchups that a top team could get in the playoffs.

Head Coach Larry Drew consistently alternated the starting lineups given the matchups that they were facing that day. When he wanted to play with a “big lineup”, Drew would insert Zaza Pachulia at the Center position, sending Al Horford into the PF position. When the opponent wasn't a very physical one, then Horford would be the team’s starting Center, while Josh Smith would play at the PF position. But when Zaza got injured in March and missed the rest of the season, the Hawks stopped being able to be so versatile on their lineups. This was especially a problem in the first round of the playoffs, when they faced the very physical Indiana Pacers.

After being led on offense by “ISO Joe” for so many seasons, Atlanta changed its offensive structure thanks to their coach. The team shared the ball pretty well and they were the second best team in the league in assists per game. However, their lack of aggressiveness was quite evident, as they were one of the worst teams in the league on offensive rebounding (#27) and FT rate (#28). When Atlanta’s jump shots weren’t going in, the team would immediately struggle, as they couldn’t score via second chance points or from the line.

Defensively, Atlanta struggled on defending rebounding when they were using their small lineup, but given their roster, the fact that the Hawks managed to be the #10 defense in the league shows a great job from Coach Drew.

In the playoffs, after losing the first two games on the road against the Pacers by 27 and 15 points, Atlanta bounced back and won the next two home games also by double digit points. But eventually their jump shooting style cost them deeply, as they scored just 83 and 73 points on the last two games of the series, while shooting a combined of 6-33 3pts!

Offseason Report:

The Hawks suffered huge changes on the offseason, with Danny Ferry being the team’s GM. Even though Larry Drew did a good job with the team, Ferry decided to release him and hire someone who he trusted from the days where they worked together in San Antonio: Mike Budenholzer.

Josh Smith left for the Pistons, but that was quickly compensated with the signing via free agency of Paul Millsap, on a two-year $19 million deal, a very team friendly deal.

Atlanta re-signed Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver to new contracts. Danny Ferry also signed Elton Brand, DeMarre Carroll and Gustavo Ayon on free agency.