NBA Free Premium Play 01/30: Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks

Toronto  at Atlanta

NBA - 707 Toronto Raptors @ 708 Atlanta Hawks Projected Line: Atlanta by 10 points Toronto has Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields and Amir Johnson banged up for tonight and from these three players, Amir Johnson is no doubt the most important one, as Toronto has an offensive rating improvement of +10.1 and a defensive rating improvement of -5.9 with him on the court! Therefore, a banged up Amir is terrible news for the Raptors tonight both offensively and defensively. The Raptors have in the Hawks a tough matchup and this is thanks to Atlanta's transition plays. Toronto isn't a fast team in getting back into defense (#23 in transition defense, while allowing 1.17 PPP for the season, with 1.37 PPP over their last 10 games) and they got completely exposed on their last game, where they got crushed by Golden State's transitions (11-16 FG 1.47 PPP)! Curiously, Atlanta has been destroying their opponents on transitions all season long and since they got crushed at Chicago, with just 58 points scored, their offense has been changed for the best. They are already an elite team on transitions by being #6 in the league with 1.19 PPP and #6 in fast break points per game with 16.7 ppg, but they have been better lately with 20.2 fast break points per game on their last 5 games! Atlanta's offense will have a super edge on this area and if Amir Johnson is indeed struggle physically, then Al Horford and Josh Smith will also be too much for Toronto. The Raptors's offense has been playing well, without committing turnovers, however Atlanta's defense is an elite team in forcing turnovers and with Kyle Lowry not being physically at 100%, the Raptors may struggle on this area tonight. The Raptors are once again involved in a lot of trade rumors, so they are struggling in keeping their focus on the games. I expect Atlanta to absolutely pound Toronto on transitions and down low, therefore I'll be taking the Hawks tonight for an easy win. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Atlanta Hawks (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker