NBA Free Premium Play 03/31: New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz

New York  at Utah

NBA - 747 New York Knicks @ 748 Utah Jazz Play #3 Because the Hawks are imploding down the stretch, the Knicks have a great chance to grab the final seed for the playoffs but they just have to win games like today’s contest @UTA. Both teams are playing @b2b spot and both had to travel so we are dealing w/ similar physical spot for both of them. I understand that we should not trust the Knicks to be consistent but they really have a favorable matchup vs. the Jazz in here. UTA’s perimeter defense is atrocious! In the L10 games, they are allowing 49.1% from 3pts land – FORTY NINE PERCENT! Obviously, this is the worst mark in the league during that stretch by a wide margin (ranked #29 DEN is allowing 40.7%). We all know that NYK attempts a ton of treys per game so I expect them to explore this massive UTA’s defensive weakness. Also, after facing Andre Iguodala last night, Carmelo Anthony will face R. Jefferson in this contest – also a favorable matchup. On the other end, UTA keeps playing w/ Kanter & Favors as their starters on the frontcourt. With both players on the court at the same time, UTA’s offensive numbers have been terrible because their floor spacing is subpar in a similar way of HOU’s situation w/ Howard & Asik early on the season. Amare Stoudemire has been decent lately and I expect NYK’s to match well vs. UTA’s big men. With NYK having a substantial edge on the perimeter, I expect them to win this contest by a safe margin. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 747 New York Knicks (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/31: Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat

Toronto  at Miami

NBA - 735 Toronto Raptors @ 736 Miami Heat Play #2 It was tough for me to watch the Magic hit 55.1% of their shots last night vs. TOR and still score only 93 points as our Triple Dime Play w/ OVER 194 pts fell short by 3 points. Nevertheless, TOR’s perimeter defense once again was subpar as the Magic did some nice damage via PNR’s by their guards. In my opinion, Lowry & DeRozan’s big minutes and increased “fatigue” have been the biggest reason for this TOR’s defensive slump as of late and being this contest @b2b spot, this won’t help the Raptors tonight. In yesterday’s game, TOR had more than 30% of their offensive production via PNR Ball Handler plays w/ a decent 0.87 PPP mark. I was expecting such good numbers from them via PNR’s because they were facing the subpar ORL defense.  Well, for tonight they will face #1 defense in the league vs. PNR Ball Handler plays in the Heat and so, I expect a natural letdown from the Raptors tonight. The fact that MIA is 3-0 vs. TOR so far in this season isn’t a coincidence – they really matchup well vs. TOR! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 736 Miami Heat (-5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/31: San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers

San Antonio  at Indiana

NBA - 733 San Antonio Spurs @ 734 Indiana Pacers Play #1 "We've done what you do," West said. "We've had team meetings. We've had players-only meetings. We've had players and the coaches (meetings). We're kind of looking for answers right now, and things don't get any easier." The Pacers are really struggling lately and they will face tonight, a Spurs’ team that is simply in another level right now. IND’s problems aren’t the usual “lack of effort or desire”. Note that despite all these late struggles, IND’s defense has been consistently great! They are playing their usual brand of excellent defensive basketball! However, the same thing can’t be said about their offense. IND just can’t get deep post positions in a consistent basis, they aren’t “screening” well and they are struggling to hit outside shots. Lowly teams have been able to hang around w/ them because they can defend decently the Pacers’ offense. On the other end, SAS can beat a franchise record tonight if they defeat the Pacers. Unlike the Pacers, we have a confident team w/ a second unit that can easily outscore their opponents’ starting lineups. In the first H2H game between these two teams, the Pacers went to SAS and beat the Spurs 111-100! They scored 111 points… Why? Well, w/ just 26 points in the paint + 26 FTM’s, the Pacers hit: 5-12 FG (42%) from 10-15 feet 11-18 FG (61%) from 16-23 feet 9-19 3pts (47.4%) That was the time when Paul George couldn’t miss mid/long range jumpers…time has changed and for tonight I expect some payback from the Spurs. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 733 San Antonio Spurs (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Card 03/30

NBA - 707 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 708 Brooklyn Nets

Play #3

Size will matters in this contest! Not only MIN superior size on the frontcourt w/ Love + Pekovic + Dieng will be a tough matchup for the undersized BKN frontcourt but also, MIN is one of the best teams in the league in taking care of the ball (ranked #2 in the league w/ 13.5% TO/rate) and this is bad news for a Nets’ defensive team that needs to create TO’s in order to be competitive. Obviously, the Nets will have some nice edge on the perimeter, but we should be dealing w/ an almost 50/50 line as both teams have substantial edges….BKN via perimeter and MIN via inside game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Minnesota Timberwolves (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 709 Chicago Bulls @ 710 Boston Celtics

Play #4

I expect this contest to be a dogfight because the inability of the Bulls in scoring points will put them in a tough position in here. After defeating the Heat at home, BOS is 0-3 L3 games… The common factor of those losses was the fact that opp. perimeter offenses torched them from outside (25-60 3pts in those 3 games – 41.1%)! The good news is that the Bulls are struggling to hit those shots! Also, BOS has some nice depth on the frontcourt w/ Humphries + Bass + Sullinger + Olynyk so they can bang some bodies vs. CHI’s physical frontcourt.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Boston Celtics (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 03/30

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 403-334-10 ATS | +137.11 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 403-334-10 ATS | +62.42 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Houston (-1) LOSS

Under HOU/LAC 216 LOSS

Dallas (-11) LOSS

Daily Message: 

After crushing the books this Friday, we got crushed yesterday w/ an awful 0-3 ATS day. The Mavericks couldn’t hold a 12-pts lead @halftime and allowed a tired SAC team playing without I. Thomas to be competitive in the second half while LAC crushed the Rockets @ 2nd quarter being a terrific performance of CP3 (he went 5-7 FG, 3-5 3pts & 4-4 FT for 17 points).

I won’t waste many time talk about yesterday’s games, we have a card of 8 games to work, so let’s do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 03/29

NBA - 505 Los Angeles Clippers @ 506 Houston Rockets

Play #1 & #2

This Under play would be a Top Play in "normal conditions", but some late injuries from HOU made me downgrade the potential play for a Single Dime Play while I still like the Rockets in here @ this current line.

I expect this contest to have a good taste of “playoff atmosphere”.  Howard’s absence isn’t a big “deal” because O. Asik is a good player and he will protect the rim quite well. I understand that the same thing can’t be said about Beverly vs. Lin, but still, we are dealing w/ an improved HOU defense.

Without Howard, LAC defense will be more focused on HOU’s guards because Asik is a non-factor on the offensive end. HOU’s PNR’s won’t “offer” the same danger and so, LAC’s defense will defend HOU’s ball handlers pretty tight.

Finally, I really don’t like LAC spot and mindset for this contest! They are coming from a big game @DAL this past Thursday and they will play vs. shorthanded HOU team without Beverly & Howard – “too easy” mindset will work against them especially being this contest on the road!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 216 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Houston Rockets (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 507 Sacramento Kings @ 508 Dallas Mavericks

Play #3

SAC lost yesterday @OKC by “just” 13 points but the reality is that they were completely outplayed by OKC in both ends of the floor. Once again, OKC failed to reach the 20-assists marl as their ball movement was non-existent! I understand that I. Thomas didn’t play that game but still, SAC is really struggling in both ends of the floor with or without him. NOTE: he's listed so far as "game time decision".

They will catch a DAL team fired up to bounce back after losing vs. LAC in the last game. DAL will torch SAC’s awful perimeter defense w/ their great ball movement while defensively, with Dalembert playing well lately, DAL can defend Cousins @ decent rate.

We are dealing w/ a team fighting for the playoffs, rested and playing at home vs. a lowly team that lacks the proper mindset and especially the proper chemistry to be competitive.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 508 Dallas Mavericks (-10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 03/29

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 403-331-10 ATS | +147.01 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 403-331-10 ATS | +65.72 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Over TOR/BOS 194 WIN

Under DET/MIA 200.5 WIN

Indiana (-1.5) LOSS

Over NO/UTA 195 WIN

Minnesota (-11) WIN

Chicago (-5) LOSS

Oklahoma City (-12) WIN

Over DEN/SAS 216.5 WIN

Phoenix (-6) WIN

Daily Message: 

It is really a great feeling when all our hard work and commitment pays off as we are coming from a great night in which we went 7-2 ATS in our plays. We were due for some “lucky winners” as we had some tough bad beats lately and last night we finally got some, especially w/ OVER NO vs. UTA. Note also that we went 3-0 ATS w/ our Totals Plays, winning all of them by double digits points, so our struggles w/ Totals plays is now a mirage.

We’ve established last night a new SEASON HIGH mark of profits for the season:

Using 3-4-5 MM system: +147.01 units;
Using 1-2-3 MM system: +65.72 units

We’ve still have about 2 more weeks left in the regular season, so there is still plenty of opportunities to cash some tickets.

Moving on for today, we have a card of 6 games to work, so let’s do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 03/28

NBA - 871 New York Knicks @ 872 Phoenix Suns

Play #1

NYK perimeter defense w/ Felton + JR Smith is simply atrocious! NYK allowed CLE’s guards Waiters + Jack to completely torch them as CLE shot +60% FG, then they were crushed by the Lakers w/ their outside shooting (18-28 3pts). They were able to bounce back last game @SAC but they had the HUGE break of SAC’s PG Isaiah Thomas being OUT for that game as SAC’s starting backcourt was McCallum + McLemore = 2 inexperienced and “raw” rookies. Good luck for tonight vs. Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic…

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 872 Phoenix Suns (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 851 Boston Celtics @ 852 Toronto Raptors

Play #2

I had a Top Play w/ Under in the last H2H game but for tonight, the circumstances have changed. TOR is now “rested” and so, I expect more consistency from them. Note that they still have scored 99 points while shooting 11-23 from 3pts but there were some moments in that game that they looked “flat” + their bench was awful! On the other end, I expect better overall games from Rondo + Bradley while BOS’s coach will quickly remove Humphries to give more minutes to Sullinger as he crushed TOR in that game w/ 8-17 FG, 4-6 3pts, 6-8 FT for 26 pts!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 851/852 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 03/28

BA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 396-329-10 ATS | +132.61 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 396-329-10 ATS | +60.92 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Under ATL/POR 207.5 WIN

Houston (-19.5) WIN

Under DAL/LAC 209.5 LOSS

Daily Message: 

After a subpar Wednesday card, we bounced back last night by going 2-1 ATS in our Plays. We could have swept the board as the game DAL vs. LAC was tied 101-101 w/ just 38 seconds to go and we had some margin w/ totals line of 209.5 points, but some late FT’s ruined our Under Play.

I won’t spend many words on today’s Daily Message because for today we have a MONSTER NBA Card of 12 games so it’s going to be a truly busy day for me. As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 03/27

NBA - 801 Portland Trail Blazers @ 802 Atlanta Hawks

Play #1

We are dealing with two struggling teams that are coming for this contest w/ a great sense of urgency. I understand that both teams are struggling in both ends of the floor, but I expect this contest to have a good dose of defensive intensiveness.

Kyle Korver most likely will not play tonight and he is really a key piece for this ATL team. We all know that ATL is basically jump shooting team and w/ Korver on the court, they have simply one of the best shooters in the league. Korver has missed L4 contests – all ATL losses as ATL went just 28-99 from 3pts land – a miserable 28% mark!

On the other end, It looks like LaMarcus Aldridge will play tonight and while I expect him to be a bit rusty w/ his shot, his presence on the defensive end will be crucial. Not because he is a great defensive player but because without him, POR is playing some miserable small ball lineups that can't defend at all. My fair line for this contest is 202/204 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 207.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 805 Philadelphia 76ers @ 806 Houston Rockets

Play #2

Yes, I expect the Rockets to crush the 76ers tonight by more than 20 points as my fair line in here is HOU-23/-25 points.

We all know how the 76ers struggle to hit outside shots - they are dead last in the league shooting 30.5% from 3pts! After a couple of decent games in this department, PHI has shot 10-41, 1-20 and 11-33 3pts in L3 games – 23% mark! Their ability to be competitive basically depends of their capacity to attack the rim and finish plays near the basket as they attempt more than 30% of their shots at the rim.

The problem for tonight is that they will have to play FULL 48 minutes vs. Howard first and then Omar Asik! The huge size of HOU’s centers will be a huge challenge for their guards... Not only I don't think that PHI' will be able to be decent near the basket but it will allow HOU to create plenty of TO's.

On the other end, we have a rested HOU team w/ a decent 2nd unit of Lin + Hamilton + Motiejunas and Asik that will outscore PHI’s with some ease.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 806 Houston Rockets (-19.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 807 Los Angeles Clippers @ 808 Dallas Mavericks 

Play #3

I know that the first 2 H2H games between these two teams finished w/ 231 and 256 points and so, making a play w/ Under in here @209.5 points doesn’t seem to be the best choice but I really expect both teams to struggle a bit on the offensive end.

First of all, note that in both 2 H2H contest, both teams were “rested” going for those games and this isn’t happening for tonight: LAC played last night @NO and their best 4 players logged at least 35 minutes, on the other end, even though DAL had one day off to rest, they are coming from b2b brutal efforts vs. BKN & OKC w/ both games going to OT.

In the last game, DAL explored pretty well OKC’s awful perimeter defense and torched them w/ 15-38 3pts mark. OKC is allowing +40% from behind the line in L10 games! However, LAC is way a better defensive team than OKC regarding stopping opp. perimeter play: they are in top 10 3pts defense in L10 games w/ 35% and they are the SECOND best defensive team vs. PNR ball handler plays – DAL‘s “premium” offensive play!

On the other end, LAC’s outside shooting has been highly inconsistent as of late…last night they attempted 30 three pointers (way too many IMO) but they hit 13-30 for a nice 43.3% mark. However, in the previous 4 games, LAC went just 32-96 behind the line (33.3%) and this might help DAL’s defense in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Under 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/27: Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks

Portland  at Atlanta

NBA - 801 Portland Trail Blazers @ 802 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** We are dealing with two struggling teams that are coming for this contest w/ a great sense of urgency. I understand that both teams are struggling in both ends of the floor, but I expect this contest to have a good dose of defensive intensiveness. Kyle Korver most likely will not play tonight and he is really a key piece for this ATL team. We all know that ATL is basically jump shooting team and w/ Korver on the court, they have simply one of the best shooters in the league. Korver has missed L4 contests – all ATL losses as ATL went just 28-99 from 3pts land – a miserable 28% mark! On the other end, It looks like LaMarcus Aldridge will play tonight and while I expect him to be a bit rusty w/ his shot, his presence on the defensive end will be crucial. Not because he is a great defensive player but because without him, POR is playing some miserable small ball lineups that can't defend at all. My fair line for this contest is 202/204 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 207.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 03/27

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 394-328-10 ATS | +129.91 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 394-328-10 ATS | +60.02 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Under BOS/TOR 196.5 Double Dime WIN

Under CHA/BKN 192 LOSS

Charlotte (-2) WIN

Over SAS/DEN 216 LOSS

Miami (+1.5) WIN

Memphis (-8) LOSS

Phoenix ML WIN

LA Clippers (-7.5) LOSS

Teaser MEM(-3) x LAC(-2) LOSS

Daily Message: 

We had a busy day last night that started well but our late plays w/ MEM & LAC along w/ a teaser play w/ both teams ruined our card. We finished the day w/ 4-5 ATS but we’ve hit our Top Play of the day w/ Under BOS/TOR.

Here some random thoughts of yesterday’s games:

-        BKN & CHA were ridiculous efficient on the offensive end. The game was a pure half court battle played @ pace factor = 84. Only 8 total fast break points were scored in 53 minutes of action while only Al Jefferson scored near the basket. My Under play had the right premise of half court battle but we had no chance when both teams combined more than +240 Off. Rtg.;

-        As expected, PHX vs. WAS turned to be a battle between the two teams backcourts’ w/ Bledsoe + Dragic taking the best of it w/ 48 total points while shooting 19-35 from the field;

-        After struggling lately to contain opp. guards from penetrating and finishing easily @ the rim, the Raptors bounced back and held Rondo + Bradley to just 25 points for an inefficient 9-24 FG mark. That was the X factor of my Top Play w/ Under and after a high scoring first half, the game slowed down considerable on the second half;

-        I’ve tweeted that I had a strong lean w/ Cleveland last night @DET and the Pistons’ late choke wasn’t a surprise for me…just watch their late plays down the stretch and you will understand why they blow so many games – it’s not a “random” thing.

-        I had a play w/ LAC both Single and in a Teaser…my premise was the “potential” big edge that Chris Paul would have vs. banged up NO’s backcourt and guess what… Chris Paul went 0-12 from the field (LOL), it’s tough to predict such awful performance. Also, the Clippers looked allergic to attack the Pelicans down low: they scored only 28 points in the paint vs. attempted 30 three pointers;

Moving on for today, we have a card of 4 games to work, so let’s do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day! 

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 03/26

NBA - 753 Phoenix Suns @ 754 Washington Wizards

Play #2

This Wizards’ team simply isn’t the same without Nene Hilario and this is starting to be noticed when the Wizards have tough games on the schedule. To make things even worse, WAS is now giving some major minutes to Gooden and Al Harrington – both streaky players on the offensive end but flat out terribly on the defensive end.

PHX w/ E. Bledsoe back is now playing @ extreme high level. Their pressure defense is terrific as they are averaging 17.0 opp. TO’s/game in L5 games and they have 3 nice role players coming off the bench in Green & brothers Morris.

PHX’s 2 biggest weaknesses are defensive rebounding & interior defense but, fortunately, the Wizards without Nene are averaging just 36 pts in the paint in L8 games! They are far from being a good offensive rebounding team as well, so we can say that the Wizards are a good matchup for this potent Suns’ team.

This is going to be a backcourt battle between these two teams and right now, I really think that PHX’s dynamic backcourt is playing better than WAS’s. Also, PHX has a substantial edge w/ their second unit and therefore, I’m taking the Suns in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 753 Phoenix Suns ML @ -127 / 1.79 on Betonline

NBA - 755 Toronto Raptors @ 756 Boston Celtics

Play #3

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Yesterday I had a play w/ Over in the game TOR @ CLE and fortunately, after a slow start, both teams exploded offensively in the second and third quarter.

It was really predictable that both backcourts’ units would have an interesting offensive edge vs. each other, and indeed it happened: Waiters & Jack combined to hit 16-28 FG for 37 points while TOR’s backcourt did their damage from the outside w/ a nice 14-32 mark from behind the line.

TOR defense is struggling a bit vs. aggressive guards that attack them off the dribble but for tonight, I expect them to bounce back defensively because Rajon Rondo and A. Bradley don’t have the same superior ability to create shots off the dribble & attacking the rim. Also, BOS frontcourt is more “static” than NO’s, OKC’s, ATL’s & CLE’s and so, I expect both Amir Johnson & Valanciunas to be solid down low.

On the other end, this is a tough spot for the Raptors as they will play b2b nights. Both Lowry & DeRozan are playing a ton of minutes lately and Rondo + Bradley won’t be an easy matchup for them.

The first 2 H2H’s games so far in this season were both slow paced games, and I expect a similar game for tonight – pace wise. My fair line in here is 190 points and obviously, we are dealing w/ some great edge w/ Under and that’s I’m taking the Under as my Top Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 755/756 Under 196.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/26: Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs

Denver  at San Antonio

NBA - 765 Denver Nuggets @ 766 San Antonio Spurs ***FREE Premium Play*** You know the drill: put SAS’s offense in a run and gun type of game, and the Spurs’ well oiled machine will just crush and dominate the game. This is even more important if we take in account that DEN is allowing almost 40% from 3pts in L10 games! Good luck DEN in stopping SAS’s offense tonight that will play w/ all their best players! On the other end, I expect DEN to be decent offensively. The last 2 games that DEN failed to score +100 points were both @b2b spots in which fatigue was a factor, this isn’t the case tonight and so, we can expect the Nuggets to push the pace and score w/ some ease down low vs. SAS while my fair line in this contest is 220 points. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 765/766 Over 216 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 03/26

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 390-323-10 ATS | +133.41 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 390-323-10 ATS | +60.52 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Over CLE/TOR 194.5 WIN

Portland -8-6) LOSS

Under LAL/NYK 217 LOSS

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a subpar night in which we went 1-2 ATS in our plays.  

During this season, we had some tough losses that were tough to “understand”…Well, I think that we can add yesterday’s play w/ Under LAL/NYK to this category. Scoring 51 points in the third quarter?! The Lakers?! No comments… 

Moving on for today, we have a BIG card of 10 games to work, so we have a lot of work in our hands! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day! 

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 03/25

NBA - 651 Toronto Raptors @ 652 Cleveland Cavaliers

Play #1

Despite playing without Kyrie Irving, the Cavaliers’ offense has been decent lately mostly because D. Waiters and J. Jack are finally playing aggressively on the offensive end. CLE completely torched NYK defense (especially in the second half) by shooting 60% from the field. They did their damage primarily via PNR’ plays by Waiters & Jack attacking off the dribble vs. slow footed NYK’s guards.

Obviously, TOR’s perimeter defense is way better vs. NYK but the TOR’s PNR ball handler defense as of late has been subpar (at best). In my opinion that is happening mostly because Lowry & DeRozan are playing so many minutes that their effort on the defensive end has been inconsistent. Also, Spencer Hawes could cause some problems to J. Valanciunas due to his good shooting range.

On the other side, the Raptors are coming from a nice win vs. ATL even though they struggled offensively in the first 3 quarters. I had a play w/ Under in that game and I really predicted such struggles because TOR was coming from a brutal effort in the previous game vs. OKC (double OT) and w/ early start, they wouldn’t be able to play their best basketball.

For this contest, I expect Lowry and DeRozan to have decent offensive numbers because as good Waiters & Jack are on the offensive end, the same thing simply cannot be said on the defensive end.

My fair line for this contest is 197/198 points and w/ the current totals line, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ OVER in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Over 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 653 Portland Trail Blazers @ 654 Orlando Magic

Play #2

As expected, the Blazers had tremendous problems to score last night vs. MIA even though the Heat defense is far from being “elite” while we easily cashed w/ Under in that game. Without LMA, POR really need to be efficient via PNR’s w/ their guards but unfortunately for them, they were facing the #1 ranked PNR defense in the league. The final outcome wasn’t pretty as Lillard went just 3-15 FG while POR as a team combined 2-10 FG in total PNR plays.

However, the Blazers’ defense bounced back after their disastrous performance @CHA and for tonight, I really expect them to come out fired up… they won’t overlook the lowly Magic!

The good news is that ORL PNR defense is ranked #21 and the Magic perimeter defense is really struggling as of late: In L10 games, ORL is allowing 36.9% from 3pts (ranked #20) and in L5 games = 40.7%!!! We can expect POR offense to bounce back in this favorable matchup…

On the other end, ORL will play without Jameer Nelson and their ball movement without him is subpar. They have only in A. Afflalo a legit outside shooter so POR will put Matthews or Batum on him. Also, ORL don’t have an imposing inside game so POR defense has all the conditions to be decent tonight and therefore, I expect them to win this contest by a safe margin.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653 Portland Trail Blazers (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/25: Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Toronto  at Cleveland

NBA - 651 Toronto Raptors @ 652 Cleveland Cavaliers ***FREE Premium Play*** Despite playing without Kyrie Irving, the Cavaliers’ offense has been decent lately mostly because D. Waiters and J. Jack are finally playing aggressively on the offensive end. CLE completely torched NYK defense (especially in the second half) by shooting 60% from the field. They did their damage primarily via PNR’ plays by Waiters & Jack attacking off the dribble vs. slow footed NYK’s guards. Obviously, TOR’s perimeter defense is way better vs. NYK but the TOR’s PNR ball handler defense as of late has been subpar (at best). In my opinion that is happening mostly because Lowry & DeRozan are playing so many minutes that their effort on the defensive end has been inconsistent. Also, Spencer Hawes could cause some problems to J. Valanciunas due to his good shooting range. On the other side, the Raptors are coming from a nice win vs. ATL even though they struggled offensively in the first 3 quarters. I had a play w/ Under in that game and I really predicted such struggles because TOR was coming from a brutal effort in the previous game vs. OKC (double OT) and w/ early start, they wouldn’t be able to play their best basketball. For this contest, I expect Lowry and DeRozan to have decent offensive numbers because as good Waiters & Jack are on the offensive end, the same thing simply cannot be said on the defensive end. My fair line for this contest is 197/198 points and w/ the current totals line, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ OVER in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Over 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 03/25

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 389-321-10 ATS | +137.01 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 389-321-10 ATS | +61.72 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Under CHA/HOU 206 Double Dime WIN

Under MIA/POR 208 Double Dime WIN

Phoenix (-3) WIN

Over MEM/MIN 197.5 WIN

Under CHI/IND 179 WIN

Over SAS/PHI 210 LOSS

Detroit (-1.5) WIN

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a great night in which we went 6-1 ATS in our plays.

We easily cashed both top plays by 17 and 24 points w/ Unders’ CHA vs. HOU & MIA vs. POR. After struggling pretty badly w/ totals plays throughout the season, we are now in a roll w/ 29-11 ATS L40 Total Plays. We could have done better if not the 2 losses recent losses w/ Under that were ruined by OT’s in this past weekend.

ONCE again, As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!

We will have some bad but what matters it’s the long term and my ability to adjust and correct the errors in a daily basis.

Moving on for today, we have a card of 4 games to work, so let's do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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