NBA Free Premium Play 01/29: Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons

Milwaukee  at Detroit

NBA - 503 Milwaukee Bucks @ 504 Detroit Pistons Projected Line: Milwaukee by 3 points Milwaukee is currently on their best moment of the season, no doubt about that! They have a healthy bench with Beno Udrih and Mike Dunleavy helping Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, saving these two players for down the stretch. The Bucks have good depth and they are now playing on run and gun to outscore their opponents. However, the key for the success of this style has been Ersan Ilyasova, who has shot 10-14, 10-17, 11-21 and 7-17 FG on the team's last four games, while being also a rebounding force by grabbing 14, 16, 7 and 12 rebounds! With Ilyasova playing so well, Milwaukee is finally having a good offensive player on the frontcourt, giving more space to their dangerous backcourt. The Bucks's main problem on offense has been their spot up shooting, where they are the worst team in the league with 0.85 PPP, however they had 0.96 PPP on spot up shooting over the last 10 games and 1.13 PPP on their last four games! Milwaukee is being an elite team this season on pick and rolls by being #7 in the league in pick and roll ball handler and pick and roll roll man. On tonight's matchup against Detroit, they will have a clear edge for the Pistons's defense that is just #25 on pick and roll ball handler due to the fact that their big men are slow footed. Detroit won the first two games of the season against Milwaukee, but it's only important to analyze the second game, as it was already with Jim Boylan coaching the team. Milwaukee was up by 49-41 on half time, but then they got outscored by 11-33 in the third quarter! I took Detroit in that game and the truth is that Milwaukee had no legs to compete in the second half, as they were playing their third game in four nights plus they were coming from a physical game against Chicago the night before: "It's our third game in four nights. It seemed like our legs got a little heavy in the third quarter, and it was pretty evident by the fact that we missed a lot of open good looks that we had throughout the game," Boylan said. "Pretty much throughout the first quarter, I know that we had at least 10 that we missed that were good open shots that we have been making. So, our legs were a little heavy, and for us, like a lot of teams, when you're struggling offensively, it can bleed into other areas of your game, and it looked like that's what happened tonight." By the way, Detroit had 3 days of rest prior to that spot, so they had a huge edge in terms of spot and they took advantage of that. In that game, coach Boylan tried some weird lineups in the frontcourt, including putting at the same time on the court Drew Gooden and Samuel Dalembert! The result of that was Larry Sanders playing just 19 minutes and thanks to that, Greg Monroe ended the game with 11-19 FG, 26 points and 11 rebounds! Now with Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova being clearly the starting frontcourt of the team, the Bucks have a good interior defense, while allowing just 62% FG at the rim (#6 in the league). Detroit won't have the same nice matchup that they had in their last game against the shorthanded and undersized frontcourt of the Magic. With Detroit struggling in scoring near the basket, there will be a lot of pressure on their backcourt. Brandon Knight is coming from a great game against Orlando, but then again, the Magic are #26 on pick and rolls defense, while Milwaukee is #6! This is a double revenge game for Milwaukee, who is currently on their best moment of the season. I expect them to outplay Detroit in here and therefore, I'll be taking the Bucks tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Milwaukee Bucks (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker 38-14 L52 & 217-150 (59%) L367 NBA - *** JUST 20 BUCKS ***! Andre Gomes is the right person to check when you want NBA winners. His amazing results are the consequence of a lot of work done by Andre every day, where he studies every game, looking for the key edges to come up with the winners day after day. This is why he is already profiting +152.15 units on his 3-4-5 Money Management System, while posting a 314-241-6 (57%) record. He has very carefully studied tonight's card and he has come up with some excellent plays that should become easy winners at the end of the night. All plays are accompanied by extensive writeups, telling you why Andre is betting on these games, so don't waste any time and starting winning alongside Andre on the NBA right now!