Wednesday, January 30, 2013

NBA Premium Play 01/29: New Orleans Hornets @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 507 New Orleans Hornets @ 508 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 14 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Lakers are coming from an excellent win over Oklahoma City, where their defense was super disciplined, with Dwight Howard being dominant down low, while on their offense, the Lakers looked very patient, with a great ball movement and Kobe Bryant reading the game superbly. The Lakers ended the game with 13-23 FG on spot ups and 11-15 FG on cuts, while not only shooting 18-22 FG at the rim, as they also shot well from the perimeter with 11-18 FG from 16-23 feet (with 7 assists) and 7-17 3pts (with 6 assists)!

This new look from the LA team with much more patience and a better ball movement will be a very tough matchup for the Hornets's defense. If we think about what the Lakers are currently doing, they have their game based on isolation plays, pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and cuts. New Orleans's defense is #30, #20, #24 and #24 in the league in these four areas respectively, therefore the Lakers has a great spot to have another great offensive game. The Hornets's defensive philosophy is to pack and the paint and with Dwight Howard dominating on the down low, this will open space on the perimeter, where the Lakers will have some great open looks to shoot the ball, especially with their new good ball movement.

On the other hand, Greivis Vasquez is coming from two bad games in a row. Is he worn out? He was having a lot of volume on the team's shots and he was playing heavy minutes and it's possible that he has simply worn out right now. The Hornets has been great on offensive rebounding lately, with 32.79% on offensive rebound rate over the last 10 games! But the Lakers with Dwight Howard showing some effort are a top defensive rebounding team, so the Hornets won't have an edge on this area. I also don't believe that New Orleans will have an edge down low, so the only option for the Hornets's offense is to shoot well from the perimeter and with the Lakers having a good offensive game and with Dwight Howard dominating on the interior defense, the Hornets will feel too pressured to shoot well from the perimeter and they will collapse. I expect an easy win for the Lakers tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 508 Los Angeles Lakers (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

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