Projected Line: Denver by 16 points | 215 points
Sacramento had a home game against Phoenix, then faced Oklahoma City at home once again last game in a 10PM EST game and they will now play at Denver at 9PM EST, on a tough spot for them. The Kings had an early lead last night against the Thunder, where they forced turnovers, but then Oklahoma City woke up and from leading the game by 23-9, Sacramento saw themselves losing by 25 points by the end of the third quarter. Sacramento showed little flow on their ball movement and they had more turnovers than assists for the second game in a row. I believe the Kings will struggle tonight at Denver, as the Nuggets are in a much better spot than them, while Sacramento isn't going to gain flow on their game and stability on their rotations in under 24 hours.
Denver's offense has in Sacramento's defense a dream matchup. Sacramento is the worst defensive rebounding team in the league by grabbing just 68.8% of the defensive rebounds. As we all know, Denver is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league by being #2 on offensive rebound rating with 32.1%, so even if Denver doesn't have a great shooting night, they will certainly still have a big edge on this area to compensate. Denver is a team with a high volume on transition plays and in home games against teams on back to back spot, they run harder to take advantage of that. In this kind of games, they are averaging 19.7 fast break points per game and 57.3 points in the paint per game! Sacramento is just #25 on transition defense while allowing 1.19 PPP and they are also just #29 in protecting the rim by allowing 67.5% FG, with 71% FG allowed over their last 10 games!
The Nuggets are now 100% healthy and they have a good identity on their second unit with Andre Miller, Wilson Chandler, Corey Brewer and JaVale McGee! These four players helped their team crushing Houston on the road and I expect them to do the same today against the Kings. In the first game of the season between these two teams, Denver won at Sacramento by 122-97 and I expect a similar result tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking both Denver and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 211.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 516 Denver Nuggets (-13) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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