  |
| Milwaukee at Orlando |
| NBA - 801 Milwaukee Bucks @ 802 Orlando Magic Play #1 In this contest we’ll have IMO a classic game between two lowly teams without any kind of defensive aggression. ORL has been struggling offensively lately because without Vucevic, they are a pure guard-oriented team that doesn’t have the proper offensive talent to generate easy points. The good news is that Vucevic returned in the last and in just 21 minutes he was effective w/ 6-12 FG 4-4 FT, 16 pts and 10 reb. Still, ORL struggled to score vs. TOR because their guards were just terrible: Nelson 5-15 FG, Afflalo 4-11 FG and Oladipo 3-14 FG! Well, it was a bad spot for them (b2b game) and TOR defense is quite good defending P&R plays. For tonight, ORL had one day off to rest, Vucevic will play without restrictions and… ORL will face a terrible defensive team in the Bucks = offensive bounce back performance! The key question for this contest is related w/ MIL offense… Their head coach has confirmed that he will play some small ball tonight w/ 2 pure guards in Knight & Wolters and so I expect MIL to be more an up tempo team. B. Knight has been one of the few decent offensive players for the team and I expect him to have the edge vs. slow footed J. Nelson in his matchup. My fair line for this contest is 198 points and therefore, we have the proper edge to play w/ OVER as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Over 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker |
Friday, January 31, 2014
NBA Free Premium Play 01/31: Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic
Daily Message 01/31
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 274-229-7 ATS | +90.46 units
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 274-229-7 ATS | +42.48 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +38.10 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +17.30 units
NBA Yesterday recap:
Indiana (-11.5) LOSS
Under IND/PHX 199.5 WIN
Over NYK/CLE 196 WIN
Golden State (-5.5) WIN
Daily Message:
We are literally crushing the books right now in the NBA: 5-0 ATS SWEEP this Tuesday, 6-1 ATS this Wednesday and last night we went 3-1 ATS in our plays to put us 14-2 ATS in the last 3 days.
With this great day, we've established a NEW "profit high" for the current NBA season: +90.46 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +42.48 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.
Since our turnaround started in 05/Dec/2013, we are hitting almost 60% of our NBA Plays in almost 300 plays - it's a pretty LARGE sample! A $100 Bettor would be UP $5860 during this stretch!
As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!
With this great day, we've established a NEW "profit high" for the current NBA season: +90.46 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +42.48 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.
Since our turnaround started in 05/Dec/2013, we are hitting almost 60% of our NBA Plays in almost 300 plays - it's a pretty LARGE sample! A $100 Bettor would be UP $5860 during this stretch!
As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!
NFL UPDATE: We are enjoying a tremendous successful NFL season by hitting 57% ATS in ALL NFL Plays! In the Playoffs, we are 6-2-1 ATS and we've cashed w/ Denver vs. NE our biggest play of the season - Triple Dime Play! We've put an "extra gear" since mid season by going 60-38 ATS (61%) L98 NFL plays or 45-25 ATS (64%) in the last 70 NFL Plays! For the Superbowl, I'm releasing my second Triple Dime Play of the season - We are 7-1 ATS in our NFL Top Plays!
Moving on for today, we have a usual BIG card of 8 to work, so let's do it. Once again, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
NBA Premium Card 01/30
NBA - 503 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 504 New York Knicks
Play #3
The Knicks are finally using their small-ball lineup and it looks like they are playing in 2012/13 season because their offense is really fun to watch! In L4 games they had 113.2, 149.4, 123.3 and 124.8 Off. Rtg!
"Our pace has really picked up. We are back to playing small ball again," coach Mike Woodson said. "Guys are shooting 3s and feeling good about them. It is good to see.
"... I think guys are more committed now. There is a sense of urgency."
With the way they are shooting the ball, I really don’t think that CLE defense will be able to shut them down defensively. Actually, CLE is struggling on the defensive end, especially on the perimeter where they are allowing 37.9% 3pts in L10 games - ranked #24 in the league!
The x factor for this contest is related with CLE offense vs. NYK defense!
CLE is struggling offensively right now… their big men are raw offensively and so there is too much pressure on the guards to produce. In the last game vs. NO, CLE scored just 89 pts while shooting 41.3% FG but note that Irving went 8-17 FG for 23 points and Waiters went 9-13 FG for 21 points!
The good news for CLE is that NYK is just terrible in defending vs. aggressive guards. Felton & Prigioni are far from being decent individual defensive players and it’s not a surprise that NYK defense is ranked #29 in the league defending P&R ball handler plays – the only play where CLE offense is ranked in the TOP10!
I expect Irving and Waiters to attack off the dribble and score some easy points vs. old and slow NYK perimeter defense.
With teams having some good offensive edges, my fair line for this contest is 200 points and therefore, I’m playing w/ the OVER in here.
"Our pace has really picked up. We are back to playing small ball again," coach Mike Woodson said. "Guys are shooting 3s and feeling good about them. It is good to see.
"... I think guys are more committed now. There is a sense of urgency."
With the way they are shooting the ball, I really don’t think that CLE defense will be able to shut them down defensively. Actually, CLE is struggling on the defensive end, especially on the perimeter where they are allowing 37.9% 3pts in L10 games - ranked #24 in the league!
The x factor for this contest is related with CLE offense vs. NYK defense!
CLE is struggling offensively right now… their big men are raw offensively and so there is too much pressure on the guards to produce. In the last game vs. NO, CLE scored just 89 pts while shooting 41.3% FG but note that Irving went 8-17 FG for 23 points and Waiters went 9-13 FG for 21 points!
The good news for CLE is that NYK is just terrible in defending vs. aggressive guards. Felton & Prigioni are far from being decent individual defensive players and it’s not a surprise that NYK defense is ranked #29 in the league defending P&R ball handler plays – the only play where CLE offense is ranked in the TOP10!
I expect Irving and Waiters to attack off the dribble and score some easy points vs. old and slow NYK perimeter defense.
With teams having some good offensive edges, my fair line for this contest is 200 points and therefore, I’m playing w/ the OVER in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 505 Los Angeles Clippers @ 506 Golden State Warriors
Play #4
I was really hopping that the Wizards were competitive last night not only because I had a play w/ them but also because I would have a lean w/ GSW tonight b/c we are dealing w/ a potential letdown spot for LAC. They had a long road trip, returned home w/ just one day off to rest, played a tight contest vs. WAS and have tonight a b2b game @GSW – not easy!
As usual, LAC frontcourt was basically reduced to Jordan & Griffin and both players logged major minutes last night w/ Jordan 42 minutes & Griffin 37 minutes!
LAC’s L3 losses:
@SAS 92-116 was b2b game
@IND 92-10.6 was b2b game
@CHA was 1 day off spot
On the other side, GSW lost their last game vs. WAS at home… David Lee & Bogut were banged up (questionable for the game) and they didn’t play well: Lee 2-10 FG 11 pts and Bogut played just 29 min! For tonight, w/ both players being rested vs. tired LAC frontline, I expect GSW to have a slight edge on the frontcourt.
However, the x factor of tonight’s game will be on the backcourt…
GSW backcourt was well defended by the Wizards in the last game. Curry was “terrible” w/ 5-17 FG and 6/3 A/TO but I have to give some props to John Wall b/c he was great defensively! Well, this won’t happen tonight because LAC backcourt (without CP3) isn’t in the same level of WAS backcourt (when “focused”).
This will be the 3rd h2h of the season between these two teams and LAC was competitive in both games –a blowout win & a close loss @GSW, why? CP3 factor! 1st h2h: 12-20 FG, 16-17 FT for 42 points, 15 assists and 6 steals; 2nd h2h: 9-20 FG, 7-7 FT for 26 points, 11 assists and 2 steals!
Without CP3, I think that GSW will have some great edge on the backcourt while the frontcourt battle will be tight w/ LAC potential physical letdown being a major factor as well!
As usual, LAC frontcourt was basically reduced to Jordan & Griffin and both players logged major minutes last night w/ Jordan 42 minutes & Griffin 37 minutes!
LAC’s L3 losses:
@SAS 92-116 was b2b game
@IND 92-10.6 was b2b game
@CHA was 1 day off spot
On the other side, GSW lost their last game vs. WAS at home… David Lee & Bogut were banged up (questionable for the game) and they didn’t play well: Lee 2-10 FG 11 pts and Bogut played just 29 min! For tonight, w/ both players being rested vs. tired LAC frontline, I expect GSW to have a slight edge on the frontcourt.
However, the x factor of tonight’s game will be on the backcourt…
GSW backcourt was well defended by the Wizards in the last game. Curry was “terrible” w/ 5-17 FG and 6/3 A/TO but I have to give some props to John Wall b/c he was great defensively! Well, this won’t happen tonight because LAC backcourt (without CP3) isn’t in the same level of WAS backcourt (when “focused”).
This will be the 3rd h2h of the season between these two teams and LAC was competitive in both games –a blowout win & a close loss @GSW, why? CP3 factor! 1st h2h: 12-20 FG, 16-17 FT for 42 points, 15 assists and 6 steals; 2nd h2h: 9-20 FG, 7-7 FT for 26 points, 11 assists and 2 steals!
Without CP3, I think that GSW will have some great edge on the backcourt while the frontcourt battle will be tight w/ LAC potential physical letdown being a major factor as well!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Golden State Warriors (-5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Thursday, January 30, 2014
NBA Free Premium Plays 01/30: Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers
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| Phoenix at Indiana |
| NBA - 501 Phoenix Suns @ 502 Indiana Pacers Play #1 & #2 Well, with Indiana playing at home, rested and w/ revenge mindset going for this contest against a team that will play their final game of the current road trip & being 4th game in 5 days, I just want to say: good luck PHX! In the first h2h, PHX completely crushed the Pacers in a shootout - The 124 points were the most they allowed under coach Frank Vogel, while the Suns shot 54.2 percent -- including 11 of 16 from 3-point range -- in their second-best performance of the season. While the way the Suns defeated the Pacers was a surprise for me, I really expected the contest to be a high scoring affair and that’s why I had my GOW Triple Dime Play w/ Over 196 in that game! Going for that game, IND had defeated LAC & GSW in the 2 previous contests while showing some sharp offense. It was clear for me that they would try to beat the Suns on their own game and the outcome was simply disastrous as the best transition defensive team in the league allowed a season high 28 fast break points to PHX and the best 3pts defense in the league allowed PHX to hit 11-16 3pts! For tonight, I expect IND to change their approach as they will slow down a bit the tempo of the game and impose their superior size on the frontcourt to crush PHX’s undersized frontline. In that game, IND has shot 9-15 FG at the rim vs. 9-20 FG from 16-23feet & 5-15 3pts…it says a lot of IND’s mindset in that game, so for tonight, I expect them to “pound down”. PHX offense has been great lately (I cashed w/ OVER in their game @MIL last night) but they are a bit overrated because they have faced some favorable matchups: MIL, PHI & CLE – all poor defensive teams. Not only this is a tough physical spot for them but also Goran Dragic got injured last night and so, I don’t think he will be 100% fit for tonight’s contest. This is a statement game for IND and they will show tonight why they are the best defensive team in the league and therefore, I’m taking Indiana & Under in here as my Single Dime Plays! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Indiana Pacers (-11.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 50/501 Under 199.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker |
Daily Message 01/30
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 271-228-7 ATS | +84.76 units
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 271-228-7 ATS | +40.58 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +38.10 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +17.30 units
NBA Yesterday recap:
Chicago (+8) Triple Dime WIN
Washington (+8.5) Double Dime WIN
Under MIA/OKC 203 LOSS
Philadelphia (+4) WIN
Philadelphia (+4) WIN
Over MIL/PHX 201 WIN
Minnesota (-10.5) WIN
Houston (+3.5) WIN
Daily Message:
Well, after sweeping the board w/ 5-0 ATS this Tuesday, we just couldn't stop crushing the books and we went 6-1 ATS in our plays while cashing our 2 top plays as well w/ Triple Dime GOW Play w/ SAS+8 & Double Dime Play w/ WAS+8.5.
We needed a Garrett Temple' layup w/ 2 seconds to win w/ the Wizards for a "lucky win" but really, we didn't deserve to lose the play because w/ 3 minutes to go, the score was 99-100 with the Wizards being super competitive. Then, WAS decided to "hack-a-DeAndre Jordan" and Jordan (who is hitting 38% FT% this season) went 4-4 from the free throw line - go figure! Ultimately, this decision from WAS coach would cost us losing the play, but many props for Garrett Temple!
With this fantastic day, we've established a new "profit high" for the current NBA season: +84.76 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +40.58 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.
As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!
Moving on for today, we have 3 games to work w/ 2 of them being the usual "TNT games", so let's do it. Once again, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
We needed a Garrett Temple' layup w/ 2 seconds to win w/ the Wizards for a "lucky win" but really, we didn't deserve to lose the play because w/ 3 minutes to go, the score was 99-100 with the Wizards being super competitive. Then, WAS decided to "hack-a-DeAndre Jordan" and Jordan (who is hitting 38% FT% this season) went 4-4 from the free throw line - go figure! Ultimately, this decision from WAS coach would cost us losing the play, but many props for Garrett Temple!
With this fantastic day, we've established a new "profit high" for the current NBA season: +84.76 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +40.58 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.
As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!
Moving on for today, we have 3 games to work w/ 2 of them being the usual "TNT games", so let's do it. Once again, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
NBA Premium Card 01/29
NBA - 711 Phoenix Suns @ 712 Milwaukee Bucks
NBA - 713 Houston Rockets @ 714 Dallas Mavericks
Play #1
PHX offense is really clicking right now... not only they torched the best defensive team in the league (IND) at home but their style has been good enough to crush the lowly teams in the league.
Their P&R & Transition offense has been excellent w/ Goran Dragic being the X factor w/ his aggressiveness in attacking the rim & court vision to find the right open teammate.
Well, MIL’s defense is just horrible! They are allowing 22 fast break pts in L6 games, their rim defense actually is quite decent but their perimeter is non-existent and so, PHX has once again a good matchup to perform well on the offense end.
The key question for this contest is related w/ MIL offense…
MIL has scored 78, 87 e 86 pts in L10 games and they need badly B. Knight, Ilyasova & Henson to be efficient. The problem was that Ilyasova struggled heavily vs. LAC w/ 6-22 FG but for tonight, he & Henson will have favorable matchups vs. undersized PHX frontline and so, finally MIL offense can generate some easy points down low and therefore, I expect this contest to be a high scoring game.
Their P&R & Transition offense has been excellent w/ Goran Dragic being the X factor w/ his aggressiveness in attacking the rim & court vision to find the right open teammate.
Well, MIL’s defense is just horrible! They are allowing 22 fast break pts in L6 games, their rim defense actually is quite decent but their perimeter is non-existent and so, PHX has once again a good matchup to perform well on the offense end.
The key question for this contest is related w/ MIL offense…
MIL has scored 78, 87 e 86 pts in L10 games and they need badly B. Knight, Ilyasova & Henson to be efficient. The problem was that Ilyasova struggled heavily vs. LAC w/ 6-22 FG but for tonight, he & Henson will have favorable matchups vs. undersized PHX frontline and so, finally MIL offense can generate some easy points down low and therefore, I expect this contest to be a high scoring game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Play #5
My fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 game and so we have the proper 3-pts edge for HOU tonight…
Fatigue can be a problem for HOU b/c this is a b2b game for them, however note that HOU is 7-2 ATS on the road in b2b games this season! HOU offense had some big problems in L3 games basically because they couldn’t generate easy points near the basket. Why? Well, they have faced twice MEM (that is dominating the league defensively as of late) and last night, Tim Duncan was just spectacular in his 1*1 defense vs. Howard! What about DAL then?
DAL interior defense simply isn’t near the same level of MEM & SAS. Actually, they have been crushed in the boards L5 games w/ 45.8% reb/rate% and in 3 of their last 6 games they have allowed more than 56 points in the paint! I expect HOU to dominate the boards and Howard to have a monster game!
DAL offense is great on the perimeter but HOU has now Beverly back and so, I expect them to be decent defensively like they were last night @SAS and therefore, I expect them to be extremely competitive!
Fatigue can be a problem for HOU b/c this is a b2b game for them, however note that HOU is 7-2 ATS on the road in b2b games this season! HOU offense had some big problems in L3 games basically because they couldn’t generate easy points near the basket. Why? Well, they have faced twice MEM (that is dominating the league defensively as of late) and last night, Tim Duncan was just spectacular in his 1*1 defense vs. Howard! What about DAL then?
DAL interior defense simply isn’t near the same level of MEM & SAS. Actually, they have been crushed in the boards L5 games w/ 45.8% reb/rate% and in 3 of their last 6 games they have allowed more than 56 points in the paint! I expect HOU to dominate the boards and Howard to have a monster game!
DAL offense is great on the perimeter but HOU has now Beverly back and so, I expect them to be decent defensively like they were last night @SAS and therefore, I expect them to be extremely competitive!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 Houston Rockets (+3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 717 Chicago Bulls @ 718 San Antonio Spurs
Play #6
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
In my opinion, it is just TOO much to ask the Spurs not only to win this contest but basically to dominate the Bulls in such bad physical spot & being so shorthanded.
Without T. Splitter, SAS has been completely dominated in the boards in their last games…L9 games reb/rate% = just 47.1% and of those 9 games they were able to “win the battle” just twice vs. ATL & MIL – both subpar rebounding teams! Tim Duncan made a huge effort last night @HOU in defending D. Howard and what is his reward for tonight? Having to face the Bulls frontcourt!
I didn’t send the play earlier because I wanted to make sure that J. Noah will play tonight and indeed it was confirmed, so I expect CHI to dominate the boards w/ some ease.
Manu Ginobili got injured last night and so, SAS basically has only Othyus Jeffers and Marco Belinelli as the only players whose natural position is the 2/3. Only Tony Parker is able to “create” offense from the perimeter, and not coincidently, SAS has shot just 6-22 & 6-23 3pts in the L2 games!
CHI has been super competitive as of late as their defense is superb while D.J. Augustin has been a serviceable PG for them. They’ve lost vs. MIN at home in their last game but J. Noah didn’t play that game and MIN dominated the paint w/ 46-36 points in the paint edge.
I expect CHI to be super competitive tonight while my fair line for this contest is SAS-1 points and so, we have the proper edge to play CHI+8 as my Triple Dime Play!
Without T. Splitter, SAS has been completely dominated in the boards in their last games…L9 games reb/rate% = just 47.1% and of those 9 games they were able to “win the battle” just twice vs. ATL & MIL – both subpar rebounding teams! Tim Duncan made a huge effort last night @HOU in defending D. Howard and what is his reward for tonight? Having to face the Bulls frontcourt!
I didn’t send the play earlier because I wanted to make sure that J. Noah will play tonight and indeed it was confirmed, so I expect CHI to dominate the boards w/ some ease.
Manu Ginobili got injured last night and so, SAS basically has only Othyus Jeffers and Marco Belinelli as the only players whose natural position is the 2/3. Only Tony Parker is able to “create” offense from the perimeter, and not coincidently, SAS has shot just 6-22 & 6-23 3pts in the L2 games!
CHI has been super competitive as of late as their defense is superb while D.J. Augustin has been a serviceable PG for them. They’ve lost vs. MIN at home in their last game but J. Noah didn’t play that game and MIN dominated the paint w/ 46-36 points in the paint edge.
I expect CHI to be super competitive tonight while my fair line for this contest is SAS-1 points and so, we have the proper edge to play CHI+8 as my Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 717 Chicago Bulls (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 721 Washington Wizards @ 722 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #7
***Double Dime Play***
I understand that this is a bad physical spot for WAS but actually, I think that they will be a tough matchup for a Clippers team that will play at home since a long time and so, this is not going to be a easy spot for them as well.
Without CP3, LAC has been great offensive especially on P&R Ball Handler plays w/ D. Collison & Jamal Crawford but WAS defense is ranked #2 in this department (behind only MIA), and they are coming from a win @GSW in which they held GSW to just 2-13 FG 0.35 PPP in P&R ball handler plays!
Obviously, LAC will have some edge on the frontcourt as Jordan & Griffin are way more physical than Gortat and Nene but still, w/ LAC shooters being well covered, I expect LAC offense to have some “unexpected” problems tonight.
WAS offense has been streaky but IMO, the X factor of this contest will be related w/ matchup between John Wall and D. Collison. Wall is playing @all star level and his all around performance last night vs. S. Curry says it all and I expect Wall to dominate Collison in both ends of the floor. In the first h2h of the season, LAC completely crushed the Wizards @WAS, but Note that a Mr. CP3 played that game and ended w/ the following stats line: 11-14 FG, 5-7 3pts, 11-11 FT for 38 pts, 12 assists and 3 steals – AMAZING! Also, Nene Hilario didn’t play that game and basically, every time the Wizards play without Nene, they don’t have a chance of being competitive.
I expect a fired up WAS team for tonight looking forward to reach +0.50 record and being a super tough matchup for LAC as I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat LAC SU!
Without CP3, LAC has been great offensive especially on P&R Ball Handler plays w/ D. Collison & Jamal Crawford but WAS defense is ranked #2 in this department (behind only MIA), and they are coming from a win @GSW in which they held GSW to just 2-13 FG 0.35 PPP in P&R ball handler plays!
Obviously, LAC will have some edge on the frontcourt as Jordan & Griffin are way more physical than Gortat and Nene but still, w/ LAC shooters being well covered, I expect LAC offense to have some “unexpected” problems tonight.
WAS offense has been streaky but IMO, the X factor of this contest will be related w/ matchup between John Wall and D. Collison. Wall is playing @all star level and his all around performance last night vs. S. Curry says it all and I expect Wall to dominate Collison in both ends of the floor. In the first h2h of the season, LAC completely crushed the Wizards @WAS, but Note that a Mr. CP3 played that game and ended w/ the following stats line: 11-14 FG, 5-7 3pts, 11-11 FT for 38 pts, 12 assists and 3 steals – AMAZING! Also, Nene Hilario didn’t play that game and basically, every time the Wizards play without Nene, they don’t have a chance of being competitive.
I expect a fired up WAS team for tonight looking forward to reach +0.50 record and being a super tough matchup for LAC as I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat LAC SU!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 721 Washington Wizards (+8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
NBA Free Premium Play 01/29: Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
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| Philadelphia at Boston |
| NBA - 705 Philadelphia 76ers @ 706 Boston Celtics Play #3 My play w/ PHI+5 last Monday against the Suns really didn’t have a chance once the game started, as PHX offense was just too much for PHI. However, note that offensively, PHI was able to explore PHX’s undersized frontcourt and scored 56 points while they were effective on transition w/ 19 fast break points & 9-15 FG 1.23 PPP. Their problem obviously was on the defensive end because PHX’s guards Dragic + Green simply couldn’t miss a shot: 9-13 FG & 10-12 FG w/ combining 7-9 3pts and PHX as a team = 9-20 3pts for 45% mark. The good news for today is that PHI will face a Celtics team that is struggling to hit outside shots right now. Against the awful perimeter D of NYK last night, BOS went just 6-22 3pts and actually, they are shooting just 27.6% 3pts in L10 games (ranked dead last in the league), so PHI’s defense won’t be crushed in the same way they were vs. PHX. BOS defense has been getting worst as the season progresses… they are allowing 45 points in the paint in L5 games & 65% FG at the rim. Something quite normal if we just look for their starting lineup @NYK last night: Rondo, Green, Wallace, Bass and Sullinger – no interior defense and so, PHI’s offense will be able to attack the rim and generate some easy points. Rondo is OUT for tonight and BOS is really shorthanded on the wings & this is a back to back game! I expect this contest to be a tight game and therefore, we have some value w/ PHI+4 in my opinion. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Philadelphia 76ers (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker |
NBA Free Premium Play 01/29: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat
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| Oklahoma City at Miami |
| NBA - 703 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 704 Miami Heat Play #2 Well, on the paper this matchup automatically “screams” for a high scoring contest because MIA in L5 games has a great 118.4 Off. Rtg to show, and OKC have even better Off. Rtg numbers w/ 119.9! However, the matchups and the projected pace of the game will eventually turn this contest into a relatively low scoring game. MIA’s biggest problem so far in the season has been their defense. Note that they are still an elite defensive unit vs. ball handler by being ranked #1 in P&R ball handler defense & #1 in the league in creating TO’s! However, their wing players are old and slow, and defensively MIA has some problems in rotating and covering the weak side of the ball. The good news for them is that OKC’s offense basically has been Kevin Durant…Kevin Durant and some more Kevin Durant! Despite their awesome offensive numbers in L5 games, OKC has averaged just 21.6 assists per game so, without making “extra passes”, MIA defense can focus on the strong side and put all the focus in Kevin Durant. MIA offense has been great indeed but just note for their opponents as of late: PHI, CHA, ATL, BOS, LAL and SAS (shorthanded)… OKC defense is in a complete another level – they are allowing just 31.7% 3pts% in L10 games (#4 best mark in the league) so I expect OKC to be solid defensively. Note also that OKC has faced some poor defenses as well as of late: SAC, POR, SAS (Leonard got injured early on the game), BOS, PHI & ATL. With both offenses being a bit overrated for this contest due to their “easy schedule” as of late, I expect both defenses to be the real highlight of this contest. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada |
Daily Message 01/29
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 265-227-7 ATS | +67.06 units
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 265-227-7 ATS | +32.68 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +38.10 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +17.30 units
NBA Yesterday recap:
Indiana (-10) Double Dime WIN
Detroit (-6.5) WIN
Under HOU/SAS 209.5 WIN
Memphis (+5) WIN
Under POR/MEM 198 WIN
Daily Message:
Well, the last 2 "Monday Cards" were simply awful as I went 0-4 & 0-2 ATS in those 2 cards, but the good news is that we bounced back with a vengeance in the following day w/ 4-0 ATS last week and 5-0 ATS last night.
With this great day, not only we made up all the mess of the 2 previous days but we've also set a new "profit high" for the current NBA season: +67.06 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +32.68 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.
As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!
This past week has been highly inconsistent w/ awesome days but w/ some truly bad days as well, but fortunately, we are still being able to build our bankroll for the season and I'm looking forward to finish strong the first half of the season.
Moving on for today, we have an usual Big Wednesday card to work w/ 11 games, so let's do it. Once again, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
With this great day, not only we made up all the mess of the 2 previous days but we've also set a new "profit high" for the current NBA season: +67.06 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +32.68 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.
As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!
This past week has been highly inconsistent w/ awesome days but w/ some truly bad days as well, but fortunately, we are still being able to build our bankroll for the season and I'm looking forward to finish strong the first half of the season.
Moving on for today, we have an usual Big Wednesday card to work w/ 11 games, so let's do it. Once again, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
NBA Premium Card 01/28
NBA - 507 San Antonio Spurs @ 508 Houston Rockets
Play #1
The Rockets are 2-0 against the Spurs in this season and in both wins, they dominated the Spurs in the first quarter w/ 30-24 & 40-25 outcomes, so we can expect the Spurs to have a clear focus for this contest:
“Acutely aware that Houston scored 30 first-quarter points in a 112-106 win at AT&T Center on Nov. 30 and 40 points in the first quarter of a 111-98 win there on Christmas Day Spurs coach Gregg Popovich wants to see better defensive focus, especially in transition.
“We have to come a little more ready to play, for one thing, have better transition defense, be more aggressive offensively.”
“They scored 30 and 40, respectively, in the first two games in the first quarter,” he said. “Then we were decent, but that’s tough to do. Our defense has to be a lot better to start the game.”
Spurs captain Tim Duncan expanded on Popovich’s sentiment, stressing the importance of defense for 48 minutes.
“Whether it be the first quarter or the last quarter we can’t let them get 30 and 40 points on us (in a quarter). It gets away from us.””
My concern for this contest is related with the (lack of) Spurs perimeter b/c D. Green & K. Leonard are by far their best wing defenders. In those 2 HOU wins, James Harden completely dominated the Spurs w/ 10-19 FG & 8-13 for 31 points and 11-16 FG for 28 points, so most likely I would pass w/ Under just because of this matchup.
Eventually, James Harden was ruled OUT for tonight’s game, so SAS defense can now adjust defensively and won’t be torched by Harden.
SAS offense also will have some problems in this contest because Tim Duncan & Tony Parker will face D. Howard & P. Beverly – both above average defensive players and so, after two high scoring contests in the first h2h games, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game.
“Acutely aware that Houston scored 30 first-quarter points in a 112-106 win at AT&T Center on Nov. 30 and 40 points in the first quarter of a 111-98 win there on Christmas Day Spurs coach Gregg Popovich wants to see better defensive focus, especially in transition.
“We have to come a little more ready to play, for one thing, have better transition defense, be more aggressive offensively.”
“They scored 30 and 40, respectively, in the first two games in the first quarter,” he said. “Then we were decent, but that’s tough to do. Our defense has to be a lot better to start the game.”
Spurs captain Tim Duncan expanded on Popovich’s sentiment, stressing the importance of defense for 48 minutes.
“Whether it be the first quarter or the last quarter we can’t let them get 30 and 40 points on us (in a quarter). It gets away from us.””
My concern for this contest is related with the (lack of) Spurs perimeter b/c D. Green & K. Leonard are by far their best wing defenders. In those 2 HOU wins, James Harden completely dominated the Spurs w/ 10-19 FG & 8-13 for 31 points and 11-16 FG for 28 points, so most likely I would pass w/ Under just because of this matchup.
Eventually, James Harden was ruled OUT for tonight’s game, so SAS defense can now adjust defensively and won’t be torched by Harden.
SAS offense also will have some problems in this contest because Tim Duncan & Tony Parker will face D. Howard & P. Beverly – both above average defensive players and so, after two high scoring contests in the first h2h games, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 505 Orlando Magic @ 506 Detroit Pistons
DET is struggling as of late but for tonight they will have a complete favorable matchup in ORL and so, I expect them to bounce back…
ORL was completely dominated on the boards in their last game vs. NO even though the Pelicans are shorthanded on the frontcourt and so, ORL was dominated in the glass vs. subpar rebounding team. Well, DET is one of the best rebounding teams in the league, in L2 games they had 57.9% & 56.10% reb/rate% and this ultimately will be the X factor of this contest.
It looks like ORL coach will change his starting lineup for tonight by inserting J. Maxiell in the starting lineup. However, ORL will still be undersized down low w/ Davis & Maxiell while Maxiell is completely worthless on the offensive end.
DET is struggling to defend from the perimeter but ORL is struggling to shoot the ball as well – in L10 games they are hitting just 32.0% 3pts% - #27 ranked in the league, so DET’s biggest defensive weakness won’t be explored by ORL IMO.
Play #2
ORL was completely dominated on the boards in their last game vs. NO even though the Pelicans are shorthanded on the frontcourt and so, ORL was dominated in the glass vs. subpar rebounding team. Well, DET is one of the best rebounding teams in the league, in L2 games they had 57.9% & 56.10% reb/rate% and this ultimately will be the X factor of this contest.
It looks like ORL coach will change his starting lineup for tonight by inserting J. Maxiell in the starting lineup. However, ORL will still be undersized down low w/ Davis & Maxiell while Maxiell is completely worthless on the offensive end.
DET is struggling to defend from the perimeter but ORL is struggling to shoot the ball as well – in L10 games they are hitting just 32.0% 3pts% - #27 ranked in the league, so DET’s biggest defensive weakness won’t be explored by ORL IMO.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Detroit Pistons (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
NBA Premium Card 01/27
NBA - 701 Phoenix Suns @ 702 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #1
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Philadelphia 76ers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Toronto Raptors @ 704 Brooklyn Nets
Play #2
Yes, the Nets are an old and slow team and for tonight they are playing b2b games after an “emotional” game @BOS last night. However, they are healthy (sans B. Lopez) and their bench is really a powerful weapon for this team. Just look for last night’s minute’s distribution:
Kevin Garnett 23
Paul Pierce 29
Alan Anderson 22
Shaun Livingston 22
Joe Johnson 25
Mirza Teletovic 19
Andrei Kirilenko 24
Andray Blatche 25
Deron Williams 34
Jason Terry 16
10 guys played considerable minutes and actually they won the game mostly due to their bench so I really don’t think fatigue will be a problem. What was a problem was their last h2h vs. TOR already in this month…however note that in that game, BKN was coming from a Triple OT game vs. MIA and Garnett didn’t play…nothing compared to tonight’s game.
TOR will play without D. DeRozan and because BKN is now playing w/ 4 “wing players”, I expect some big edge in this are for BKN b/c besides Terrence Ross…TOR has J. Salmons, A. Daye, S. Novak and J. Stone – not exactly a strong unit and limited defensively.
T. Ross is coming from a historical game vs. LAC in which he scored 51 points while shooting 16-29 FG. However he made a huge effort by playing 44 minutes – that’s a real letdown spot! w/ TOR backcourt being limited tonight, I expect BKN to keep rolling and avenge their only loss of the year (2014) so far.
Kevin Garnett 23
Paul Pierce 29
Alan Anderson 22
Shaun Livingston 22
Joe Johnson 25
Mirza Teletovic 19
Andrei Kirilenko 24
Andray Blatche 25
Deron Williams 34
Jason Terry 16
10 guys played considerable minutes and actually they won the game mostly due to their bench so I really don’t think fatigue will be a problem. What was a problem was their last h2h vs. TOR already in this month…however note that in that game, BKN was coming from a Triple OT game vs. MIA and Garnett didn’t play…nothing compared to tonight’s game.
TOR will play without D. DeRozan and because BKN is now playing w/ 4 “wing players”, I expect some big edge in this are for BKN b/c besides Terrence Ross…TOR has J. Salmons, A. Daye, S. Novak and J. Stone – not exactly a strong unit and limited defensively.
T. Ross is coming from a historical game vs. LAC in which he scored 51 points while shooting 16-29 FG. However he made a huge effort by playing 44 minutes – that’s a real letdown spot! w/ TOR backcourt being limited tonight, I expect BKN to keep rolling and avenge their only loss of the year (2014) so far.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Brooklyn Nets (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Monday, January 27, 2014
Daily Message 01/27
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 260-225-7 ATS | +57.66 units
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 260-225-7 ATS | +28.88 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +38.10 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +17.30 units
NBA Yesterday recap:
Brooklyn (-4) Triple Dime WIN
Over CLE/PHX 204 Double Dime LOSS
Over CLE/PHX 204 Double Dime LOSS
Under MIA/SAS 203 LOSS
Miami (-4) WIN
Orlando (+6.5) LOSS
Over NO/ORL 199 LOSS
Daily Message:
Despite hitting our Triple Dime Play w/ the Nets, we didn't have a good day at all as overall we finished the day 2-4 ATS.
I've just analyzed all plays, and so here's a quick recap:
Definitely, MIA w/ 2 days off to rest was ready to play and easily crushed the shorthanded Spurs. The pace factor of the game was 87.3 according to my numbers, so it was a slow paced game as I expected. However w/ MIA shooting 58.1% from the field, the Under play didn't have a chance.
I had ORL+6.5 & Over 199 and it was "weird" to lose w/ ORL because they had a better FG% (46.8%) than NO (45.7%). The X factor of the game was the potential edge that ORL backcourt would have on the offensive end and indeed they had: Nelson 6-14 FG, 15 points & 8 assists; Affallo 9-14 FG & 25 points and Oladipo 6-12 FG & 18 points! What was the "problem" then? Well, the Magic was completely crushed on the boards w/ just 37.4% reb/rate% (16-4 offensive rebounding edge for NO!). In the 3 previous contests, NO had 43.6%, 43.0% and 42.1% reb/rate%, so it was a bit surprisingly the way the dominated the boards in here. With so many offensive boards, the pace factor of the game was a bit slower than my worst estimations and therefore, the game went Under the total posted.
The Cavaliers scored 61 points in the first half vs. PHX, and it looked like they would score +120 points… and bang: 6 points scored in the 3rd quarter by shooting 2-22 from the field, WTF?! Still, against one of the worst transition defensive teams in the league, PHX was able to score just 5 fast break pts & 2-13 FG in transition for a miserable 0.45 PPP while CLE P&R game completely disappeared in the second half and the game went Under the total posted.
Moving on for today, we have 6 games to work so it's time to bounce back! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
I've just analyzed all plays, and so here's a quick recap:
Definitely, MIA w/ 2 days off to rest was ready to play and easily crushed the shorthanded Spurs. The pace factor of the game was 87.3 according to my numbers, so it was a slow paced game as I expected. However w/ MIA shooting 58.1% from the field, the Under play didn't have a chance.
I had ORL+6.5 & Over 199 and it was "weird" to lose w/ ORL because they had a better FG% (46.8%) than NO (45.7%). The X factor of the game was the potential edge that ORL backcourt would have on the offensive end and indeed they had: Nelson 6-14 FG, 15 points & 8 assists; Affallo 9-14 FG & 25 points and Oladipo 6-12 FG & 18 points! What was the "problem" then? Well, the Magic was completely crushed on the boards w/ just 37.4% reb/rate% (16-4 offensive rebounding edge for NO!). In the 3 previous contests, NO had 43.6%, 43.0% and 42.1% reb/rate%, so it was a bit surprisingly the way the dominated the boards in here. With so many offensive boards, the pace factor of the game was a bit slower than my worst estimations and therefore, the game went Under the total posted.
The Cavaliers scored 61 points in the first half vs. PHX, and it looked like they would score +120 points… and bang: 6 points scored in the 3rd quarter by shooting 2-22 from the field, WTF?! Still, against one of the worst transition defensive teams in the league, PHX was able to score just 5 fast break pts & 2-13 FG in transition for a miserable 0.45 PPP while CLE P&R game completely disappeared in the second half and the game went Under the total posted.
Moving on for today, we have 6 games to work so it's time to bounce back! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
NBA Premium Card 01/26
NBA - 801 San Antonio Spurs @ 802 Miami Heat
Play #1 & #2
Well, this is just a regular season game w/ two banged up teams, so I don’t think that the “revenge” spot for SAS will make any different regarding the final outcome of this contest.
In my opinion, what really matters is that the Heat enjoyed 2 full days off to rest and prepare the following game for the first time in more than 10 days! (01/15 game @WAS was their last “good physical spot”). MIA defense hasn’t been good this season and w/ fatigue being a major problem for them lately, they really couldn’t rotate properly on the defensive end.
This might change today w/ more time to rest and w/ D. Wade back because as inconsistent as Wade is on defense, he is really a big upgrade over R. Allen.
SAS is having some problems in taking care the ball as they’ve committed 15, 17 and 22 TO’s in L3 games and this is a big concern when facing the Heat’s ball pressure defense, so I expect MIA to finally having a decent defensive performance today.
The real X factor for this contest is related w/ LeBron James! SAS is playing without K. Leonard & D. Green – their two best defensive perimeter players! LeBron James is almost impossible to be stopped, but for today he will have a great matchup advantage to explore and this will be good enough for MIA b/c LeBron will (as always) make the right plays.
I expect this contest to be a relatively slow paced game and this will make the difference w/ Totals IMO. My fair line for this contest is 200 points so besides playing the Heat, I’m also playing the Under in here as well as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on BetonlinePick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Miami Heat (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 805 Orlando Magic @ 806 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #3 & #4
I have to give some credit to NO because I went against them in L2 games and not only they covered the spread in both games, but they also won SU those 2 games. However, I really think it will be too much to ask them to basically crush the Magic in this contest.
First of all, both teams really aren’t playing any kind of defense lately…
NO has now in L10 games, Def. Rtg = 116.8! Their opponents are scoring easy points down low & NO is allowing almost 39% 3pts% in those games! Well, ORL isn’t doing much better… In L10 games, Def. Rtg = 115.5 while allowing 38.3% 3ps% during this stretch.
Without Vucevic, it’s imperative for us to “find out” if their starting backcourt Nelson + Afflalo + Oladipo have good matchups in order for them to be efficient. This happened in their last game vs. awful LAL’s perimeter defense w/ Nelson 7-11 FG, Afflalo 7-11 FG and Oladipo 5-14 FG but he had a good all around game w/ 15 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists. That’s why I went w/ ORL-2 in that game!
The good news is that NO’s perimeter defense is also a subpar defensive unit (now that J. Holiday is OUT) and so, I expect ORL’s backcourt to have a decent offensive performance w/ ORL being extremely competitive while this contest is going to be a fast paced one w/ plenty of points.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Orlando Magic (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on BetonlinePick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Over 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 807 Phoenix Suns @ 808 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #5
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This contest is a perfect matchup for a high scoring game and that’s why I’m taking the Over as a Top Play.
CLE’s offense has been better lately since L. Deng is playing for the team - In L6 games, they have a nice Off. Rtg = 111.9! Note that they don’t a particular good ball movement, but they are a strong offensive team in 2 categories: 1) P&R’s ball handler plays w/ their guards and 2) they are a good offensive rebounding team w/ Varejao and Thompson crashing the boards.
The good news?
Well, PHX is the THIRD worst defensive rebounding team in the league w/ 72.1% Def. Reb/rate% and they are coming from a game vs. WAS in which they allowed WAS to grab 19 offensive boards! Also, PHX defense is ranked just #22 defending P&R’s plays and they are really struggling lately in this department without E. Bledsoe. I expect CLE offense to have some great offensive edges in here.
However, PHX offense will also have some good edges, especially in 2 key areas: 1) CLE’s guards really can’t guard anyone (try watching K. Irving “playing” some defense) and so I expect Goran Dragic to have a good game w/ his usual aggressiveness; 2) CLE defense is just awful vs. transition plays (ranked #25) and allowing almost 15 fast break points per game L9 games, and this is really what PHX offense does best – ranked #1 in the league w/ 19.1 Fast Break pts/game!
PHX as usual will dictate the tempo of the game (fast paced affair obviously), and with both teams having some great edge on the offensive end, I’m taking the Over in here as my Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 809 Brooklyn Nets @ 810 Boston Celtics
Play #6
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
This Nets team has sucked pretty much all season long but right now, they are one of the best teams in the East and we really should enjoy it...
Note that they are still playing undersized and so, they are vulnerable on the boards and down low against skilled big men. They have still a subpar perimeter defense (too slow to rotate) and their opponents are having some good 3pts games against them. The good news for them is that BOS isn’t’ equipped to explore these weaknesses: 1) they are shooting just 27.9% 3pts% in L10 games (ranked #28 in the league) and 2) they don’t have any reliable inside presence that can punish BKN interior defense – they have scored just 32.5 points in the paint L4 games!
On the other side, BKN’s offense is really playing great lately! They are sharing the ball w/ 29 assists per game in L4 contests. Their bench has been spectacular w/ 74 points scored against DAL in the last game and honestly, this will be the key factor for today’s game vs. banged up BOS team.
BOS is really shorthanded @backcourt w/ Rondo still rusty & off sync w/ his teammates. BKN backcourt will torch them especially w/ Deron Williams coming off the bench.
The narrative of Pierce & KG coming back @BOS is really irrelevant for me… what really matters is that BKN is playing great lately while BOS has entered in “tank mode” in the last week, and therefore I expect BKN to win this contest quite easily.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 809 Brooklyn Nets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Sunday, January 26, 2014
NBA Free Premium Plays 01/26: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat
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| San Antonio at Miami |
| NBA - 801 San Antonio Spurs @ 802 Miami Heat Play #1 & #2 Well, this is just a regular season game w/ two banged up teams, so I don’t think that the “revenge” spot for SAS will make any different regarding the final outcome of this contest. In my opinion, what really matters is that the Heat enjoyed 2 full days off to rest and prepare the following game for the first time in more than 10 days! (01/15 game @WAS was their last “good physical spot”). MIA defense hasn’t been good this season and w/ fatigue being a major problem for them lately, they really couldn’t rotate properly on the defensive end. This might change today w/ more time to rest and w/ D. Wade back because as inconsistent as Wade is on defense, he is really a big upgrade over R. Allen. SAS is having some problems in taking care the ball as they’ve committed 15, 17 and 22 TO’s in L3 games and this is a big concern when facing the Heat’s ball pressure defense, so I expect MIA to finally having a decent defensive performance today. The real X factor for this contest is related w/ LeBron James! SAS is playing without K. Leonard & D. Green – their two best defensive perimeter players! LeBron James is almost impossible to be stopped, but for today he will have a great matchup advantage to explore and this will be good enough for MIA b/c LeBron will (as always) make the right plays. I expect this contest to be a relatively slow paced game and this will make the difference w/ Totals IMO. My fair line for this contest is 200 points so besides playing the Heat, I’m also playing the Under in here as well as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Miami Heat (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline |
Daily Message 01/26
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 258-221-7 ATS | +63.96 units
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 258-221-7 ATS | +30.38 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +38.10 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +17.30 units
NBA Yesterday recap:
Over UTA/WAS 194 Triple Dime WIN
Under CHA/CHI 183 WIN
Over TOR/LAC 197.5 WIN
Denver (+2) WIN
Under MEM/HOU 194.5 WIN
Houston ML LOSS
Daily Message:
We are coming from a terrific 5-1 ATS day in which we've hit our Top Top - Triple Dime Play w/ OVER UTA/WAS 194. It was nice to see our 4 Total plays being all "easy winners" (Under CHA/CHI despite a 32-32 4th quarter outcome was never in doubt) because this season has not been easy to handicap totals IMO.
With this great day, we've set a new "profit high" for the current NBA season: +63.96 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +30.38 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.
As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!
We bounced back well after a bad 3-days losing stretch, the right adjustments were made and so, I'm looking forward to finish strong the first half of the season.
Moving on for today, we have 8 games to work w/ 2 EARLY "ABC" games, so let's do it. Once again, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
With this great day, we've set a new "profit high" for the current NBA season: +63.96 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +30.38 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.
As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!
We bounced back well after a bad 3-days losing stretch, the right adjustments were made and so, I'm looking forward to finish strong the first half of the season.
Moving on for today, we have 8 games to work w/ 2 EARLY "ABC" games, so let's do it. Once again, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
NBA Premium Card 01/25
NBA - 513 Washington Wizards @ 514 Utah Jazz
Play #6
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
My fair line for this contest is 204 points so w/ such huge edge, I have no other option than playing w/ OVER as a Top Play.
The matchup between these two teams favors a high scoring game…
UTA’s perimeter defense is simply horrible… their interior protection is non-existent as I have them allowing almost 70% FG at the rim, so it will be easy for WAS’s skilled big men to score down low.
The biggest mismatch IMO will be John Wall vs. rookie T. Burke… Burke doesn’t have the proper athleticism to slow down Wall. UTA is one of the worst P&R defensive teams for some reason and with Wall penetrating and attacking the rim, he will find the open teammate on the outside. That worked pretty well last night @PHX as Wall had 6-12 FG & 12 assists!
On the other side, WAS’s defense has been subpar lately. They are allowing 15.8 fast break pts per game in L6 games and even “lowly teams” are scoring well against them. UTA’s offense has been quite good as of late and now that Hayward is back, I expect them to push the pace vs. tired WAS team and so, this contest will be a fast paced affair w/ both offenses having some serious edges!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 507 Houston Rockets @ 508 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #3 & #4
This contest is a classic home-home back to back series and last night I had MEM+6. However, I expect HOU to have some revenge tonight while the pace & matchup of the game won’t be that different and so, I expect this contest to be once again a low scoring game.
In my opinion, the X factor of yesterday’s game was the fact that Howard battled foul trouble and ended up playing only 30 minutes! Obviously, by being so shorthanded on the frontcourt and w/ Howard playing 30 min, MEM completely dominated the boards w/ 56.5% reb/rate% and scored 48 points in the paint vs. just 30 from HOU.
Note that w/ Howard on the court, MEM was outscored by 7 points!
HOU finished w/ nice mark of 14-34 3pts w/ Parsons having a remarkable night. I don’t expect him to repeat such awesome game but I also don’t expect MEM backcourt shooting 12-20 FG vs. 3-22 FG from HOU!
HOU’s ability to score 28 fast break points was also a good sign for tonight…
With Howard playing near 40-min mark, MEM won’t be able to score that many points in the paint while HOU’s will be able to generate good outside shooting looks and therefore, I’m taking HOU tonight. MEM’s pace will dictate the tempo of the game and under this scenario, I expect this contest to be a slow paced game as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Houston Rockets ML @ -123 / 1.81 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 511 Indiana Pacers @ 512 Denver Nuggets
Play #5
Well, the Pacers have a terrible physical spot for tonight! This will be their 4th game of the current road trip; their 4th game in 6 days and nothing is worst that playing an Overtime in the previous day and then playing b2b @DEN in the next night!
Coach Vogel didn’t rotate his starters that well: Stephenson played 46 min, Paul George 41 min, Hill 40 min, Hibbert 39 min and West 37 min.
For some reason, IND’s defense is having some problems to slow down opp. Guards in L2 games:
Dragic 8-10 FG, 21 pts & Green 6-13 FG w/ 8-10 FT for 23 pts
Last night, Isaiah Thomas 13-31 FG, 10-10 FT for 38 pts & Thornton 16-27 FG for 42 pts!
This can be problematic because the Nuggets have Ty Lawson…
DEN is coming from a nice game @POR where they could and should have won the game but they choked down the stretch. They are rested and playing at home vs. tired team, IMO, they should have been the favorites in this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 512 Denver Nuggets (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Saturday, January 25, 2014
NBA Free Premium Play 01/25: Los Angeles Clippers @ Toronto Raptors
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| LA Clippers at Toronto |
| NBA - 503 Los Angeles Clippers @ 504 Toronto Raptors Play #2 My fair line for this contest is 202 points so @ 197.5/198 points, we have the proper edge to play w/ OVER. Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights but I don’t think fatigue will be a big factor for tonight. Both teams are sharing the ball quite well and so, they are creating plenty of good looks for their shooters… LAC had 26 assists vs. 7 TO’s last night vs. terrific CHI defense while TOR had 28 assists vs. 15 TO’s vs. PHI. TOR’s P&R offense was super sharp last night w/ Lowry being a major factor (he had 7-11 FG, 18 pt, 10 reb and 13 assists), and for tonight I expect him to have some edge over D. Collison. TOR’s is coming from 2 good defensive performances in L2 games, but they have faced DAL’s playing without Nowitzki and they have stopped PHI’s offense only in the 4th quarter. LAC’s offense is in “another level” and so , I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 197.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline |
NBA Free Premium Play 01/25: Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Bobcats
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| Chicago at Charlotte |
| NBA - 501 Chicago Bulls @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats Play #1 Both teams are coming from “terrible” defensive performances last night.. CHA defense really didn’t have a chance against Carmelo Anthony… maybe they should have doubled him earlier in the game, but when they did indeed doubled Melo, it didn’t matter… On the other side, CHI defense was fulminated by an inspired Blake Griffin and a brigade of 3pts shooters… The good news for them is that tonight, both will bounce back defensively as this matchup favors a low scoring game. CHA is without Kemba Walker and without him, Al Jefferson has step up his game by scoring 22, 24 and 25 points in L3 games w/ nice FG%’s -> 32-60 FG 53.3%! The problem is that Big Al will have a tough matchup tonight against Noah & Gibson and w/ him having some problems to be efficient, CHA’s offense will struggle to score. CHI offense has been streaky lately...they are having good offensive performances vs. teams that don’t protect the rim well but this is not the case w/ CHA defense that is allowing 58% FG at the rim! CHI’s pace has been incredibly slow as of late and so, I expect this contest to be a pure half court game w/ both teams having problems to create “easy” points down low. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline |
NBA Premium Card 01/24
NBA - 807 Milwaukee Bucks @ 808 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #1
CLE defense has been just awful lately especially w/ their guards – K. Irving really can’t guard anyone as when D.J Augustin is able to hit 8-14 FG, 5-8 3 pts, 6-6 FT while having 7-2 A/TO vs. CLE= that’s a pretty good sign of mediocrity.
MIL’s offense obviously is far from being a decent unit, but they have in B. Knight a pretty aggressive PG that will explore this CLE bad positional defense.
MIL is coming from a rare win in their last game vs. DET. Coach Larry Drew decided to start w/ Ilyasova + Henson + Udoh on the frontcourt (Ilyasova being the “Small Forward” of the team) and while MIL was able to score well near the basket w/ 46 points in the paint, their perimeter defense was really terrible w/ bad defensive positioning. For some reason, B. Jennings ended the game w/ 11-23 FG & 30 points and Stuckey w/ 8-16 FG & 23 points.
NOTE: L. Drew confirmed that he will use the same starting lineup for tonight
These are extremely good news for this CLE offense that depends on their backcourt to be efficient on the offensive end and so, we can expect K. Irving, D. Waiters, J. Jack & L. Deng to enjoy some nice offensive edge on their matchups. My fair line for this contest is 198 points and therefore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 801 Los Angeles Lakers @ 802 Orlando Magic
Play #2
After fading the Lakers last night, I’m doing it again for tonight against the Magic on the road.
We are dealing w/ a potential letdown spot for them w/ b2b spot and after playing “well” last night vs. MIA as their 3 top players logged more than 35 minutes while this is their last b2b game of this current road trip.
The Lakers really can’t defend anyone from the perimeter… MIA was able to shot almost 60% FG and IMO, the X factor of this contest will be on the perimeter for ORL. ORL is still playing without Vucevic, so their backcourt needs to be productive if they want to have any chance of being competitive. Fortunately for them, Nelson, Afflalo & Oladipo will all enjoy some great matchups vs. bad & tired LAL backcourt and therefore, I’m taking ORL in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Orlando Magic (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Friday, January 24, 2014
NBA Free Premium Play 01/24: Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
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| Milwaukee at Cleveland |
| NBA - 807 Milwaukee Bucks @ 808 Cleveland Cavaliers Play #1 CLE defense has been just awful lately especially w/ their guards – K. Irving really can’t guard anyone as when D.J Augustin is able to hit 8-14 FG, 5-8 3 pts, 6-6 FT while having 7-2 A/TO vs. CLE= that’s a pretty good sign of mediocrity. MIL’s offense obviously is far from being a decent unit, but they have in B. Knight a pretty aggressive PG that will explore this CLE bad positional defense. MIL is coming from a rare win in their last game vs. DET. Coach Larry Drew decided to start w/ Ilyasova + Henson + Udoh on the frontcourt (Ilyasova being the “Small Forward” of the team) and while MIL was able to score well near the basket w/ 46 points in the paint, their perimeter defense was really terrible w/ bad defensive positioning. For some reason, B. Jennings ended the game w/ 11-23 FG & 30 points and Stuckey w/ 8-16 FG & 23 points. NOTE: L. Drew confirmed that he will use the same starting lineup for tonight These are extremely good news for this CLE offense that depends on their backcourt to be efficient on the offensive end and so, we can expect K. Irving, D. Waiters, J. Jack & L. Deng to enjoy some nice offensive edge on their matchups. My fair line for this contest is 198 points and therefore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes |
NBA Premium Play 01/23
NBA - 501 Los Angeles Lakers @ 502 Miami Heat
Play #1
Sure, the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in the L5 games while MIA is having some problems to remain focused and their schedule has been tough. However, this contest is a complete mismatch favoring MIA, and therefore I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.
First of all, LAL’s offense has been decent as of late…they are attempting a lot of three pointers but b/c they are so shorthanded @ guards, they are prone to commit TO’s against aggressive defensive teams. They’ve committed 21 TO’s vs. LAC, 17 vs. PHX, 20 vs. BOS and even in their last game @CHI, they committed 22 TO’s! This will be problematic for the Lakers tonight because they will face the #1 ranked team in the league in creating TO’s w/ 18.3% Opp. Turnovers per Possession. Also, MIA is the best team in the league defending P&R ball handler plays, so by design, MIA’s defense is the worst nightmare for LAL’s offense.
On the other end, LAL’s defense is obviously far away from being (even) a decent unit. It is too easy to score near the basket against them – they are allowing their opponents to hit almost 70% FG at the rim while their perimeter defense has been quite decent in L4 games w/ 4-19, 7-23, 9-30 & 7-21 3pts.
However, just look for the 3pts teams rankings of their opponents in those 4 games:
PHX #11 w/ 36.7%
BOS #28 w/ 33.2%
TOR #15 w/ 35.9%
CHI #26 w/ 33.9%
…
MIA #7 w/ 37.3%
Miami is playing consecutive home games since a long time and w/ one day rest between their last game vs. BOS and tonight’s TNT contest vs. LAL, I expect them to be “rested enough”, and because the matchup is so favorable for them, my fair line for this contest is MIA-15.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Miami Heat (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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