  |
| Indiana at Detroit |
| NBA - 503 Indiana Pacers @ 504 Detroit Pistons Projected line: Detroit by 2 points ***SPLIT THE WAGER*** This is obviously a bad spot for Indiana: a back to back game, having played yesterday a home game against Cleveland that went to overtime, with David West, Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert and Darren Collison playing for more than 35 minutes! To make things even harder for them, the Pacers battled fog on their short trip to Detroit which kept them from their hotel until 3:30 a.m., so add the fog to the fatigue and who knows what kind of type of team will show up at the Palace at Auburn Hills! Their offense has been terrible and the only way they were able to win yesterday's game was via hustle, with an Off Reb rate of 32%, and with some good defense. However, on such a physically tough spot, and with Indiana being 3-0 right now, it will be very hard for the Pacers to hang with the hungry and winless Pistons on this game! Detroit is coming from a loss at Boston, where they weren't able to stop the well oiled offensive machine of the Celtics, with Paul Pierce back in action. These two teams have already faced each other on their first game of the season, where Indiana won by 91-79, in a game which was decided on the 3rd quarter. However, both teams shoot the same eFG%, but Indiana crushed Detroit in offensive boards (18 vs. 9) and by committing less turnovers (11 vs. 16). On that game, Detroit's best player Greg Monroe was involved in foul trouble and played for just 21 minutes and so Indiana had an open court to pound Detroit downlow! Today things won't be the same. I expect a much bigger effort from Detroit looking for their first win and they should be able to cause a lot of problems to Indiana's offense tonight. Considering the difference of effort that I expect on this matchup, I believe in an upset and so, I'll take Detroit on this contest. Pick: 1 unit on 504 Detroit Pistons ML @ +120 / 2.20 on Bookmaker Pick: 2 units on 504 Detroit Pistons (+2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker |
Saturday, December 31, 2011
NBA Free Premium Play 12/31: Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons
NBA Daily Message 12/31
NBA 2011/12 RECORD: 27-18-1 ATS | +16.15 units
NBA 2011/12 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 27-18-1 ATS | +3.89 units
NBA 2011/12 Record Spreedsheet (click here)
NBA Yesterday's recap:
Indiana -9,5 LOSS
Under Orlando 184 WIN
Houston +6,5 LOSS
Over Houston 195,5 WIN
Phoenix ML/+2,5 WIN
Toronto +8,5 LOSS
Under Toronto 193 WIN
Over Utah 191,5 WIN
Daily Message:
After having a minor setback on Thursday, I promised we would get revenge over the sportsbooks and we did that yesterday by going 5-3 on our NBA Plays. A shame Indiana was so messy the whole game, Houston had a terrible 3rd quarter and Toronto couldn't keep up on the score down the stretch, but still we had another positive day and that's what it matters.
So, for today, on the last day of the year, we have a relatively long board with 7 games, with an early game at 3:30PM EST and the night games starting one hour earlier than usual: 6:00PM EST! So, stay tune especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!
NBA 2011/12 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 27-18-1 ATS | +3.89 units
NBA 2011/12 Record Spreedsheet (click here)
NBA Yesterday's recap:
Indiana -9,5 LOSS
Under Orlando 184 WIN
Houston +6,5 LOSS
Over Houston 195,5 WIN
Phoenix ML/+2,5 WIN
Toronto +8,5 LOSS
Under Toronto 193 WIN
Over Utah 191,5 WIN
Daily Message:
After having a minor setback on Thursday, I promised we would get revenge over the sportsbooks and we did that yesterday by going 5-3 on our NBA Plays. A shame Indiana was so messy the whole game, Houston had a terrible 3rd quarter and Toronto couldn't keep up on the score down the stretch, but still we had another positive day and that's what it matters.
So, for today, on the last day of the year, we have a relatively long board with 7 games, with an early game at 3:30PM EST and the night games starting one hour earlier than usual: 6:00PM EST! So, stay tune especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!
NBA 12/30 Advanced Numbers Stats
|
Orlando at Charlotte
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
ORL
|
29
|
27
|
19
|
25
|
100
|
88.07
|
112.54
|
0.51
|
11.26
|
32.56
|
16.67
|
||
|
CHAR
|
23
|
20
|
19
|
17
|
79
|
90.51
|
0.39
|
11.66
|
25.53
|
16.87
|
|||
|
Cleveland at Indiana
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
OT
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
|
|
CLE
|
24
|
23
|
14
|
23
|
7
|
91
|
95.52
|
85.68
|
0.41
|
15.05
|
17.31
|
20.45
|
|
|
IND
|
22
|
23
|
25
|
14
|
14
|
98
|
93.59
|
0.39
|
14.28
|
29.82
|
25.53
|
||
|
Detroit at Boston
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
DET
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
85
|
80.14
|
103.44
|
0.45
|
12.30
|
32.43
|
17.72
|
||
|
BOS
|
24
|
26
|
36
|
10
|
96
|
122.91
|
0.57
|
12.74
|
17.86
|
28.36
|
|||
|
New Jersey at Atlanta
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
NJ
|
19
|
18
|
35
|
26
|
98
|
85.86
|
115.79
|
0.52
|
14.54
|
39.47
|
15.85
|
||
|
ATL
|
20
|
23
|
33
|
29
|
105
|
120.56
|
0.51
|
11.35
|
37.50
|
35.06
|
|||
|
Houston at Memphis
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
HOU
|
28
|
23
|
16
|
26
|
93
|
98.13
|
95.99
|
0.50
|
18.71
|
14.63
|
17.72
|
||
|
MEM
|
30
|
27
|
31
|
25
|
113
|
113.71
|
0.56
|
14.48
|
20.59
|
28.75
|
|||
|
Phoenix at New Orleans
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
PHO
|
22
|
30
|
23
|
18
|
93
|
86.88
|
108.02
|
0.47
|
12.04
|
23.26
|
25.64
|
||
|
NO
|
22
|
23
|
16
|
17
|
78
|
88.97
|
0.31
|
11.27
|
39.34
|
25.56
|
|||
|
Miami at Minnesota
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
MIA
|
31
|
20
|
31
|
21
|
103
|
100.78
|
102.03
|
0.51
|
13.14
|
19.57
|
8.60
|
||
|
MIN
|
20
|
33
|
22
|
26
|
101
|
100.39
|
0.54
|
21.40
|
26.67
|
14.46
|
|||
|
Washington at Milwaukee
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
WAS
|
24
|
17
|
26
|
14
|
81
|
92.33
|
85.78
|
0.39
|
13.04
|
18.37
|
16.47
|
||
|
MIL
|
36
|
29
|
13
|
24
|
102
|
113.03
|
0.59
|
19.23
|
27.78
|
21.92
|
|||
|
Toronto at Dallas
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
TOR
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
16
|
86
|
88.15
|
97.46
|
0.50
|
17.54
|
13.16
|
19.44
|
||
|
DAL
|
29
|
21
|
27
|
22
|
99
|
112.43
|
0.49
|
10.13
|
17.50
|
38.89
|
|||
|
Philadelphia at Utah
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
PHI
|
29
|
22
|
22
|
26
|
99
|
92.29
|
107.69
|
0.51
|
12.65
|
17.95
|
27.27
|
||
|
UTA
|
22
|
31
|
18
|
31
|
102
|
110.08
|
0.48
|
11.37
|
21.43
|
32.91
|
|||
|
Chicago at L.A.
Clippers
|
Advanced Stats
|
4 Factors
|
|||||||||||
|
Teams
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
PACE
|
Offense
|
EFG%
|
TOR
|
ORR
|
FTR
|
||
|
CHI
|
29
|
28
|
26
|
31
|
114
|
86.76
|
132.00
|
0.54
|
11.43
|
40.54
|
37.18
|
||
|
LAC
|
28
|
24
|
25
|
24
|
101
|
115.87
|
0.56
|
11.02
|
23.08
|
15.00
|
|||
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