Saturday, January 26, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 01/26: New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers

  
New York  at Philadelphia 
NBA - 503 New York Knicks @ 504 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Line: 195 points


Jason Kidd will be playing tonight even though he is struggling with a back injury, Raymond Felton is returning tonight from his finger injury while Pablo Prigioni is also struggling with a sore foot, so this is a great opportunity for Philadelphia's offense to explore their matchup edge with Jrue Holiday tonight. Thaddeus Young is also likely to have an edge on offense against the Knicks's power forwards (Melo and Amare). Philadelphia's problems is on the rest of the lineup, as they shoot a lot of long range shots, but without great efficiency. However, the Knicks have a poor 16-23 feet defense by allowing 45% FG from this area over their last 10 games! I expect the Sixers to come super aggressive for tonight's game in order to take advantage of the Knicks's old backcourt pushing up the pace when they get the ball.

With Raymond Felton back in the lineup, the Knicks's offense will immediately improve their ability on dribble penetrations, while Felton is also important for the team's ball movement and to put the ball in Tyson Chandler near the basket as well, something that both Jason Kidd and Pablo Prigioni couldn't do with success. One of the biggest problems of the Sixers's defense this season has been on pick and roll ball handler plays, where they are #24 by allowing 0.84 PPP for the season and 0.94 PPP over their last 10 games. With Felton back, the Knicks have great skills on this kind of plays to torch Philadelphia's defense. I see this game being a high scoring game, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 191 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

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