NBA Premium Play 04/29: Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 515 Los Angeles Clippers @ 516 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected line: 179 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/29: Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 513 Boston Celtics @ 514 Atlanta Hawks

Projected line: Boston by 3 points

Boston decided to rest players instead of fighting for the homecourt edge, while Atlanta did the opposite. Anyway, both teams can win on the road, so I don't see the home court being a big factor on this series. Atlanta has both Zaza and Horford out, so only Collins and maybe Dampier are the only centers who will get a couple of minutes today, but nothing more than 10/15 minutes. So, the Hawks will play small ball with Ivan Johnson and Josh Smith in the center position! When that happens, Atlanta will have big guards like Marvin at PF, TMac or Joe Johnson as their SF! These are good news for Boston, as first of all, Atlanta can't dominate the boards playing like this, as shown in the last game between these two teams, where Boston won the boards battle with almost 60% of the boards grabbed. Then, Atlanta lacks a physical big guy, so the Garnett+Bass combo can handle the Hawks frontcourt quite well. 

Boston is a well oiled machine on defense and they will create a lot of problems to Atlanta's offense, who is a perimeter team. Atlanta was #3 on spot ups offense during the regular season, but they will face Boston, who was #1 on spot ups defense! I also see an edge in terms of executing favoring Boston, with both Garnett and Pierce being clutch today. Atlanta is a team that lose focus when they struggle to score, especially Josh Smith who turns into a bad shots machine! Boston's offense is now using a lot of cuts and off screens, something that will work very well on this matchup, as Atlanta hasn't been a good defensive team on these two areas: #14 and #17 during the regular season. I believe Boston is the better team and that Atlanta is a good matchup for them and therefore, I believe that they will be able to win this game, with a superior down the stretch play. Therefore, I'll take Boston in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Boston Celtics (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/29: Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 511 Denver Nuggets @ 512 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected line: 207 points | LA Lakers by 1 point

We have in here a matchup where my Power Ranking says that Denver is a better team than the Lakers, but the clutch and down the stretch experience gives the Lakers some edge, especially at home, but still I see enough edge for me to take Denver today, with such a line offered by the sportsbooks. In terms of gameplan, it's easy to understand what coach Karl wants to do during this series: run! The Lakers have in the Gasol vs Faried matchup a clear edge for Pau down low and especially Bynum can dominate down low any center from the Nuggets. As Denver won't be able to defend Bynum, the best way to avoid Bynum to dominate them is to make the game really fast, as Bynum is a terrible runner and this is why the Lakers are such a terrible transition defensive team, so the Nuggets may edge some edge in here, with their superior depth in the bench.

"We've actually talked about, in a crazy way — you can't do it, but what if our center position was like hockey?" Nuggets coach George Karl said. "Four- or five-minute stints, just run, run, run, run. Next guy, run, run, run, run. Because I know Bynum and Gasol don't want to run, run, run, run for 48 minutes. We can't do that probably, but we actually talked about instead of playing guys 10 minutes (each), shortening it to six, seven minutes."

Besides this, coach Karl loves small lineup with Andre Miller and Al Harrington and this will only be effective for them if Denver pushes the pace, as in half court they would get crushed! Besides the Lakers being a bad transition defense team and even though their frontcourt size, they don't have a good interior defense. Their frontcourt is just too slow in the rotations and note that the Lakers allowed 63% FG at the rim and 64% FG since Sessions joined the team. In fact, in their last game against Denver, Kobe didn't play but Pau and Bynum played for 38 minutes and Denver still shot 25-39 FG at the rim and 9-15 FG from 3-9 feet! It was easy for Denver to score near the basket, besides they also shot 9-15 FG in transition! The problem for the Nuggets in that game was that they just couldn't shoot from the outside with 1-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-17 3pts! Both Gallinari and Lawson were terrible and I doubt they will be this bad once again today.

On the other hand, the Lakers offense will have a clear edge in the frontcourt, as once Bynum gains the position down low and has the ball, he will easily score. The same will happen between Gasol and Faried, especially with Kobe back in the team and with his presence allowing the team's offense to spread the floor. Denver is also a bad transition defensive team and Sessions is a good player in exploring this kind of problems. I believe this game will be played in a fast pace and with both teams having clear edges on offense, I am taking the Over in here. As I expect Denver to make this game highly competitive due to the Lakers defensive troubles in defending the Nuggets in both transitions and at the rim, I'll also take Denver in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Denver Nuggets (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/29: Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 509 Utah Jazz @ 510 San Antonio Spurs

Projected line: 211 points | San Antonio by 15 points

My conviction for these playoffs is that coach Popovich will play in a similar way to the one he used in the regular season: pushing the pace and use the team's main strength - their depth! So, I expect San Antonio to play super fast, to push up the rhythm and worn their opponents out to make the Spurs' depth a major weapon. It wouldn't make sense for the Spurs to be so successful during the regular season playing like that and then, in the playoffs, to use the Big 3 for 40 minutes each! The regular season ended 3-1 in favor of San Antonio, with the last game of the series, where the Big 3 didn't play, being the game that Utah won. Besides that, the pace of the games where the Big 3 played were 93.4, 96.6 and 96.7, a super fast pace to confirm what I've just said. 

Utah's frontcourt is quite poor on defense with Big Al and Millsap being too slow to rotate on the P&R's, as in fact we are dealing in here with the #5 offense in P&R Ball Handler against the #29 defense from Utah! The Jazz have a frontcourt edge in terms of offense and this will be well used by them and the best way for San Antonio to try to avoid this edge is to make the game faster, perimeter based and I strongly believe the Spurs will try that. The game where San Antonio won by 114-104 is the game that I believe it will be more similar to today's game, as San Antonio shot 21-27 FG at the rim, with the damage being done by their guards, with Parker 4-5 FG, Manu 3-3 FG, Leonard 3-3 FG and Green 1-1 FG. On the other hand, Utah had Millsap banged up on that game and that was quite evident, as Millsap shot just 1-8 FG. Utah will have some edge in transition and in post up plays via their frontcourt, but their inexperience might become a huge factor like it was for Indiana yesterday. Players like Harris, Big Al, Hayward, Favors, Carroll are very inexperienced on the playoffs and this will become a factor on this game.

I believe San Antonio with their depth will blowout the inexperienced Jazz on this game, on a game played on a very fast pace and with the Spurs' depth allowing that to pound Utah's defense for the whole game. Therefore, looking at all of these factors, I'll be taking both San Antonio and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 205,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 San Antonio Spurs (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB Free Premium Card 04/28

MLB - 977 Boston Red Sox @ 978 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lester vs J. Peavy)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 977 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lester) @ -113 / 1.89 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/28: Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 507 Dallas Mavericks @ 508 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected line: Oklahoma City by 11 points

This is a big game for Oklahoma City and I expect the Thunder to have too much energy for a team like Dallas to handle them. The Mavs have been struggling in being consistent in terms of in-game energy and against a team like Oklahoma City, this will be fatal to them. Suddenly, West is struggling with the flu and Kidd doesn't have legs for a player like Westbrook anymore. Eventually, coach Carlisle will have to put Marion defending Westbrook, but that will expose Durant who I expect to be highly aggressive on this series.

Dallas has been struggling on rebounds lately and with Oklahoma City allowing just 55% FG at the rim since the All Star game, I expect the Thunder to control the glass and force Dallas to be a jump shooting team. Last season that worked for Dallas, but that won't simply work this season, as the Thunder are now clearly a much more impressive team, while the Mavs have regressed and don't seem to have the same ball movement and effectiveness in both ends of the floor that they had last season. Therefore, I expect Oklahoma City to make a statement on this first game of the series and get a blowout win today. So, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 508 Oklahoma City Thunder (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/28: Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 505 Orlando Magic @ 506 Indiana Pacers

Projected line: 196 points

This Howard-less version of Orlando has been obviously much worse on defense, as their season average in defensive efficiency was 106, but without Howard, the efficiency rate goes to 113! At the rim, Orlando with Howard was allowing 63% FG, but without Howard, they allowed 67% FG. With Indiana having a lot of depth in the frontcourt, especially with Hibbert and West, so the Pacers will have a clear edge down low on this series, as Orlando will play Big Baby and Anderson in the frontcourt. 

Therefore, I don't expect coach Van Gundy wanting his team to play half court sets against the Pacers. He will try to put his team playing more wide open, as the only way for Orlando to win is to play fast and on a jump shooting game, where the Magic can be a potent team from the outside. Hedo will play, but he will still be without rhythm and I see him having a lot of trouble in stopping Granger. Indiana is also a very aggressive team with a high FT rate and I expect them to be aggressive from the start.

I expect a game played on a relatively fast pace, with both teams having clear offensive mismatches in this matchup. So, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 191,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/28: New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

NBA - 503 New York Knicks @ 504 Miami Heat

Projected line: Miami by 6 points

From all the games of this series, this might be the hardest game for Miami. In fact, if Chandler wasn't struggling with the flu, the Knicks would have been a Top Play for me in here. Miami has been resting starters and incredibly, the last time the Big 3 played together was in MSG against this very same Knicks, almost two weeks ago! The NBA is a game of momentum and it's not easy to switch on good basketball whenever a team wants, so this game might become a very tough one for the Heat. In fact, Miami did something similar at the end of last year's regular season and then struggled in their first game against Philadelphia, as they won by just 97-89 when they were a -10.5 favorite. When they gained some momentum back, they easily crushed the Sixers in Game 2 by 94-73! No matter the opponent, this would never be an easy spot for Miami after a long time without their best players together on court.

On the other hand, the Knicks continue to be at a good level and they only rested some of their players in the last game, with Amare playing at Charlotte to get back his good legs. The Knicks have been playing well and they actually have a good matchup against Miami. They have Chandler to patrol the paint and he has a considerable edge over Miami's center, whoever they use. Then, Fields, Shumpert and Melo are all underrated defenders and they will be defending Wade and Lebron. Plus, they are also a team that shoots well from deep and that's a major weakness from the Heat defense. The Knicks also force a lot of turnovers and so, this won't be an easy series for Miami.

Besides all of this, the Knicks have a considerable edge in the gameplan for this game. Everybody knows how Miami plays and the Knicks will have every detail studied, while the team from NY may surprise today. They have been playing very well with Melo at PF and Amare recently returned to the lineup, therefore coach Woodson may surprise Miami with certain lineups in the middle of the game and I'm fully expecting that to happen. I predict this game to be a tough one for Miami and this is why I only have them to be a favorite by two ball possessions today. With the line giving us the edge on the Knicks, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 New York Knicks (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Playoffs Free Premium Plays 04/28: Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls

Philadelphia  at Chicago

NBA - 501 Philadelphia 76ers @ 502 Chicago Bulls Projected lines: 171 points | Chicago by 12 points During this week, a Philadelphia player publicly stated that Chicago was a good matchup for them and so, they wouldn't mind be the #8 seed. Even though I may agree with them, the truth is that Chicago has a substantial edge over the Sixers down low and so, combined with some bad play from Philadelphia, I believe the Sixers will have a quick exit in the first round. Philadelphia has been a fading team since the All-Star break and it isn't this recent 4-games winning streak before losing in their last game in Detroit that will change my opinion. In fact, on this winning streak, Philadelphia defeated Cleveland, New Jersey and Milwaukee plus Indiana in overtime, when the Pacers had their #3 seed already secured. Coach Collins has been changing the team's rotations a lot, but without success. He has replaced Meeks with Turner, but Turner needs the ball to be effective and for that, there is already Iguodala and Holiday in the lineup. Meeks is starting today, however the main problem of the Sixers will definitely be in the frontcourt, as Hawes isn't simply the same player since returning from injury. He's just too soft right now and he can't handle the opposing physical frontcourts. Coach Collins understood that and the rookie Allen will start today instead of him. However, Allen is quite inexperienced and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in early foul trouble thanks to that, plus he will eventually burn out quickly, which will leave Philadelphia clearly exposed to Chicago's frontcourt, with this being the main reason why I believe Chicago will easily control this series. Offensively, Philadelphia will have a lot of problems in scoring on this series. The Sixers ran a pretty conservative offense and they don't want to take risks, with that being the reason why they were the team that less committed turnovers during the regular season. They aren't also aggressive in attacking and this is why their FT rate is extremely low at 16.29. With Hawes on court, the team would still have some scoring punch in mid-range jumpers, but with Allen, Philadelphia will basically have one less player on the offense. Brand is still a solid player, but he is coming from a regular season where he attempted 2.0 FGA per game at the rim, so Philadelphia will have very little impact in scoring down low against Chicago. If they manage to do something at this area, it will be due to their guards being able to attack the rim, as Philadelphia's offensive strength relies on their good ability to score in ISO plays, where they were #5 in effectiveness during the regular season. However, Chicago was #2 in defending ISO plays and so, I don't expect the Sixers to make a lot of damage on this area against the Bulls. Philadelphia is a perimeter team (just like Chicago), but the Bulls defense was #4 in defending FG from 16-23 feet by allowing just 35.8% FG. Just like the Sixers, Chicago can be considered as a jump shooting team, however the Bulls are the best rebounding team in the league and their offensive rebounds will be a key edge for them against Philadelphia. The Sixers have been a declining team since the All Star and that has been mostly due to their poor rim defense and especially their perimeter defense that hasn't been so good on the second half of the season by having allowed 36% from 16-23 feet for the whole season, but 40% FG since the All Star. The series between these two teams in the regular season ended with 2-1 in favor of Chicago, but note that in Philadelphia's win, Deng didn't play and with that Iguodala had a super game with 8-13 FG 19pts and 9 reb. However, in the other two games, Philadelphia shot just 39.2% FG and 41.8% FG. I expect a similar or even worse shooting game from Philadelphia today and with them lacking a lot of FT attempts and being limited on their inside game, Chicago will have a clear edge on defense today. On the other hand, I expect their offense even with a limited Rose to be able to give them a clear win today due to their frontcourt and offensive rebound edge! Therefore, I'll be taking both Chicago and the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 175 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Chicago Bulls (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Playoffs Package 2012

NBA Playoffs 2012 

Price: $125.00 

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NBA regular season results:NBA 2006-07: +94.62 units (betting rating: 1, 2 and 3 units)

NBA 2007-08: +51.75 units (betting rating: 1, 2 and 3 units)

NBA 2008-09: +25.37 units (betting rating: 3, 4 and 5 units)

NBA 2009-10: +74.36 units (betting rating: 3, 4 and 5 units)

NBA 2010-11: +46.55 units (betting rating: 3, 4 and 5 units)

NBA 2011-12: +15.65 units (betting rating: 1, 2 and 3 units)


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NBA Advanced Stats Numbers 04/26

New Jersey at Toronto							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
NJ	15	12	16	24	67		90.22	75.01	0.34	14.28	21.82	13.25
TOR	26	28	19	25	98			107.55	0.48	12.74	35.71	15.91
Miami at Washington							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIA	18	14	18	20	70		90.30	78.78	0.39	22.10	16.28	26.87
WAS	28	29	23	24	104			113.37	0.59	15.60	22.58	19.74
New York at Charlotte							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
NY	23	23	30	28	104		91.22	112.15	0.56	10.72	16.22	9.41
CHAR	20	24	19	21	84			93.64	0.47	15.77	21.05	18.92
Dallas at Atlanta							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DAL	21	23	28	17	89		93.64	97.46	0.46	15.37	20.00	23.08
ATL	38	22	26	20	106			110.46	0.58	15.24	13.89	8.24
Cleveland at Chicago							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CLE	25	20	17	13	75		88.28	82.72	0.33	8.38	21.31	19.54
CHI	26	32	22	27	107			124.56	0.56	8.87	32.43	14.12
Orlando at Memphis							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
ORL	9	21	24	22	76		83.17	91.42	0.46	15.86	18.18	12.33
MEM	27	27	13	21	88			105.75	0.49	14.63	25.71	25.00
New Orleans at Houston							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
NO	20	22	29	6	77		88.01	87.95	0.43	15.59	11.11	26.47
HOU	12	21	30	21	84			94.94	0.40	10.17	29.09	12.09
Denver at Minnesota							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DEN	29	32	32	38	131		98.00	134.05	0.66	14.06	36.36	15.73
MIN	25	17	27	33	102			103.80	0.51	11.78	18.18	13.48
Portland at Utah							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
POR	16	24	35	19	94		91.32	101.62	0.49	13.68	14.63	20.00
UTA	23	24	31	18	96			106.52	0.46	11.23	30.23	24.10
Philadelphia at Detroit							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
PHI	15	28	23	20	86		85.48	102.92	0.42	10.47	35.29	14.94
DET	26	39	21	22	108			123.57	0.59	12.87	26.32	14.81
Milwaukee at Boston							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIL	18	24	19	13	74		96.46	76.99	0.38	20.70	22.45	17.95
BOS	21	39	18	9	87			89.87	0.45	14.04	13.64	10.34
LA Lakers @ Sacramento							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
LAL	24	19	31	22	96		92.58	101.05	0.49	13.64	24.44	7.69
SAC	35	21	34	23	113			125.33	0.54	7.41	31.82	14.13
San Antonio at Golden State							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
SA	27	26	31	23	107		94.92	114.34	0.48	11.16	35.85	14.58
GS	29	25	28	19	101			104.91	0.53	14.78	18.60	10.34