WNBA Free Premium Card 05/31

WNBA - 601 Atlanta Dream @ 602 Indiana Fever

Projected Line: 154 points

According to my numbers, we should have been dealing with a 154 points totals line, a line that curiously was the opening line, until a line movement set it at 157 points. Somehow, this matchup is similar to the Heat x Pacers matchup, as one of the teams plays really small (Indiana), while the other one plays big (Atlanta). The Dream started the season by scoring almost 100 points against Tulsa, on a game where they had a pretty favorable matchup. Tulsa was shorthanded, they didn't have any real interior presence with Liz Cambage being limited with jet lag, while they also committed 22 turnovers in a fast paced contest! Therefore, Atlanta crushed them by attempting almost 60% of their shots in the paint, while scoring 58 points on this area plus 24 fast break points!

This will be a completely different game, as Indiana plays at a more halfcourt style, while the Dream don't have Lindsey Harding as their starting PG anymore, something that has been forcing them to use some inexperienced players on this position. Now against the elite defensive team of the Fever with their great ball pressure, Atlanta will struggle on offense. Indiana is coming from an easy win at San Antonio against the shorthanded and undersized Silver Stars, where they scored 46 points in the paint, something that is very unlikely to happen tonight against the powerful Dream frontcourt. I believe the totals line is therefore set too high for tonight's game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 157,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

WNBA - 603 Tulsa Shock @ 604 New York Liberty

Projected Line: New York by 4 points

I expect Tulsa to be competitive tonight, as the Liberty is actually a good matchup for them. New York lost clearly at Connecticut last Saturday and their roster is showing that it isn't well balanced, with a clear lack of options on the frontcourt. To make things worse for them, Plenette Pierson is banged up, while center Cheryl Ford seems to be out for tonight. This will turn the Liberty into a mere jump shooting team and with problems to grab rebounds.

On this kind of game, Tulsa can be competitive, as they had Liz Cambage down low to dominate, while their backcourt can go toe-to-toe with New York. The Shock lost their last game at Washington on overtime, but they were playing without Candice Wiggins and Nicole Powell, two key players of the team. It seems that both of them are back for tonight, so I expect Tulsa to be very competitive tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Shock in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603 Tulsa Shock (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

WNBA - 605 Connecticut Sun @ 606 Chicago Sky

Projected Line: Chicago by 3 points

I believe Chicago is being clearly overrated in here, after having defeated Phoenix on the road last Monday on a National TV game. The Sky deserved to win that game, but they found the Mercury on their worst moment. Phoenix will be once again one of the worst defensive teams in the league, while they will still need to work on their offense to develop a regular chemistry on the lineup. The Mercury tanked last season due to a lot of injuries and they are right now a work in progress and so, the Sky took advantage of that to get an easy win. Chicago had a weird shot selection in that game with their two guards Prince and Delle Donne combining 36 FG attempts, while Sylvia Fowles had just 5 attempts, a bad sign for tonight, as Connecticut will surely be much more ready to face them than the Mercury were. 

The Sun changed their coach, but their roster is pretty much the same from last season. Connecticut will want to play at a fast pace this season, in order to create turnovers, while unlike Chicago, they know how to feed the ball to their best player down low: the reigning MVP Tina Charles. The Sun had no problems in beating New York at home on their season debut, while showing already a good ball movement with just 13 turnovers. I believe the Sun's chemistry is much better than Chicago's right now and this high spread line can't be justified for this game. Therefore, I'll be taking Connecticut tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605 Connecticut Sun (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/30: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

NBA - 519 Indiana Pacers @ 520 Miami Heat

Projected Line: 181 points

The Game 4 of this series was the slowest game of the playoffs so far with a 79.39 pace factor! In fact, the pace on this series has been getting slower and slower: 87.85, 84.25, 83.37 and 79.39! The playing style of both teams suggests that the pace will remain slow in the future of this series, as Miami doesn't want to run like crazy on this series in order to avoid turnovers that can easily become quick transitions for the Pacers. They are being patient, they are working well on halfcourt by using Lebron James at the post and that has been working, as after 21 and 15 turnovers in the first two games of the series, the Heat committed just 5 and 6 turnovers on the last two games of this series! On the other side, Indiana is also wanting to play really slow, as they want to look for the better spots to put the ball down low on Roy Hibbert or David West. So, this is why the games on this series are being played are getting even slower with the time.

The truth is that Indiana has been incredibly efficient on the offense and always on an non-conventional way. A lot of their possessions have been ugly and they result in bad shots, but Indiana is compensating that with insane rebound rates: 52.75%, 53.51%, 59.66% and 59.68%! These rebounds are resulting in second chance points and especially in free throws. The Pacers averaged 28.6 FT/game against Atlanta and 29.3 FT/game against the NY Knicks, but they are now averaging 35.25 FT/game against Miami! It's also unquestionable that Indiana has a huge edge on this series on down low with Roy Hibbert and David West in post up plays: 1.07, 0.90 and 1.00 PPP on the last three games of the season!

On Game 4, an offensive letdown from Miami was expected and it happened. They scored 70 points on the first half of Game 3, but on Game 4 they needed three quarters to score 70 points. Indiana's defense had to choose between doing better close outs down low to Haslem / Birdman or put more pressure on the outside, especially on pick and roll ball handler plays. Their option was clear: they tried to avoid easy points down low. After allowing 52 points in the paint on Game 3, Indiana allowed just 32 points in the paint on Game 4! On the other side, Miami had good numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays with 7-15 FG and 1.11 PPP, a clear improvement from 0.46, 0.88 and 0.90 PPP from the three previous games of the series. Indiana will have to choose once again tonight to make an extra effort on their interior defense or at the perimeter, but looking at their results on Game 3 and Game 4, I believe coach Vogel's option is easy to guess.

Given the pace of this series and taking in account the offensive approach of both teams, I have no doubt that tonight's game will be another slow paced contest. Indiana has been having insane offensive ratings: 117.4, 117.2 and 125.0! However, the way they have been super effective on offense isn't sustainable in the future, as they are being good on offense via offensive rebounds and free throws, not from a good shot selection on their backcourt. Miami's offense was limited by an excellent Indiana's defense on Game 4, after a crazy good Game 3. The Pacers' approach for tonight will be the same: prevent easy points down low!

The refereeing on Game 4 was pretty questionable: a lot of flopping and some fines were applied, including to Lebron James! Therefore, I expect the ref crew for tonight to allow the players to be more physical than usual and don't have the approach that the referees have been showing on this series with a lot of tight calls that even made Lebron James being fouled out! With a slow pace and with the refs not being tight on foul calling, both teams will have to put some monster offensive numbers for this game to go Over the total posted. Therefore, I expect this series to see finally one of its games to go Under the total posted and so, I'll be taking it in here.

NOTE: This line is currently available at Bovada. The public is currently pounding the Over, so it's likely that the line will get even better for us as gametime approaches!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519/520 Under 186 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

MLB Premium Card 05/30

MLB - 959 Detroit Tigers @ 960 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister vs J. Locke)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ D. Fister) @ -123 / 1.81 on Betonline

MLB - 969 Toronto Blue Jays @ 970 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: R. Dickey vs M. Minor)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ R. Dickey) @ +140 / 2.40 on Bovada

MLB - 977 Houston Astros @ 978 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: L. Harrell vs J. Nicasio)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 978 Colorado Rockies RL -1.5 (w/ J. Nicasio) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Eastern Conference Final: Miami x Indiana Game 4 Recap

NBA Eastern Conference Final: Miami x Indiana Game 4 Recap

The Game 4 of this series was the slowest game of the playoffs so far with a 79.39 pace factor! In fact, the pace on this series has been getting slower and slower: 87.85, 84.25, 83.37 and 79.39! The playing style of both teams suggests that the pace will remain slow in the future of this series, as Miami doesn't want to run like crazy on this series in order to avoid turnovers that can easily become quick transitions for the Pacers. They are being patient, they are working well on halfcourt by using Lebron James at the post and that has been working, as after 21 and 15 turnovers in the first two games of the series, the Heat committed just 5 and 6 turnovers on the last two games of this series! On the other side, Indiana is also wanting to play really slow, as they want to look for the better spots to put the ball down low on Roy Hibbert or David West. So, this is why the games on this series are being played are getting even slower with the time.

The truth is that Indiana has been incredibly efficient on the offense and always on an non-conventional way. A lot of their possessions have been ugly and they result in bad shots, but Indiana is compensating that with insane rebound rates: 52.75%, 53.51%, 59.66% and 59.68%! These rebounds are resulting in second chance points and especially in free throws. The Pacers averaged 28.6 FT/game against Atlanta and 29.3 FT/game against the NY Knicks, but they are now averaging 35.25 FT/game against Miami! It's also unquestionable that Indiana has a huge edge on this series on down low with Roy Hibbert and David West in post up plays: 1.07, 0.90 and 1.00 PPP on the last three games of the season!

On Game 4, an offensive letdown from Miami was expected and it happened. They scored 70 points on the first half of Game 3, but on Game 4 they needed three quarters to score 70 points. Indiana's defense had to choose between doing better close outs down low to Haslem / Birdman or put more pressure on the outside, especially on pick and roll ball handler plays. Their option was clear: they tried to avoid easy points down low. After allowing 52 points in the paint on Game 3, Indiana allowed just 32 points in the paint on Game 4! On the other side, Miami had good numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays with 7-15 FG and 1.11 PPP, a clear improvement from 0.46, 0.88 and 0.90 PPP from the three previous games of the series. Indiana will have to choose once again tonight to make an extra effort on their interior defense or at the perimeter, but looking at their results on Game 3 and Game 4, I believe coach Vogel's option is easy to guess.

MLB Premium Card 05/29

MLB - 903 Detroit Tigers @ 904 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: A. Sanchez vs A. Burnett)
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ A. Burnett) @ +110 / 2.10 on Bovada

MLB - 905 Boston Red Sox @ 906 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs K. Kendrick)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lackey) @ -137 / 1.73 on Betonline

MLB - 909 Washington Nationals @ 910 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: J. Zimmermann vs C. Tillman)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ C. Tillman) @ -112 / 1.89 on Betonline

MLB - 911 Cincinnati Reds @ 912 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: B. Arroyo vs J. Masterson)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 912 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ J. Masterson) @ -134 / 1.75 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 05/28: Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 515 Miami Heat @ 516 Indiana Pacers

Projected Line: 181 points

Miami had a different approach to Game 3, no doubt about that! Their mindset was to pound Indiana down low, especially with Lebron on the post more than ever! On the first two games of the series, the Heat had just a post up volume of 3.40% and 5.00%, but on Game 3 that percentage went to 13.8% with 5-10 FG and 1.08 PPP! Indiana's defense doesn't double team anyone and Lebron James took advantage of that to pound Paul George time and time again. The big difference on the Game 3 was that Miami explore Indiana's weaknesses in an impressive way! As I've mentioned countless times this season, Indiana allows their opponents to hit mid-range jumpers and their philosophy is based upon closing the paint and the three-points line without contesting the opposing mid-range shots. The problem was that Miami almost hit almost of their mid-range jumpers, with even Udonis Haslem shooting 8-9 FG! There was clearly a merit from Miami with this approach, but there was also some luck as they hit almost all their shots from mid-range, while Indiana wasn't prepared to defend Miami playing with this new tactic. 

On the other side, we have a classic game for Indiana's offense. Unlike what happened on the Spurs x Grizzlies series, where Memphis's frontcourt was unable to pound San Antonio at the paint, Roy Hibbert and David West are having a tremendous edge down low against Miami. Hibbert shot just 4-12 FG on Game 3, but he shot 12-15 FT and grabbed 7 offensive boards! The truth is that Miami's defense is simply unable to defend Indiana's frontcourt no matter what. On the second half, Indiana was much better on defense. They were more assertive, they gave less space on the down low, but the problem was that their offense was unable to outplay Miami's defense as well. As the Heat had just 5 turnovers, Indiana had a low volume of transition plays with just 6.8%! Still, the Pacers shot a really nice 8-14 (57.1%) 3pts on this game, something that shows how much they struggled down low: 21-59 (35.5%) FG on 2pts shots!

The pace on Game 3 was once again super slow: 83.37! There was a lot of merit on Miami for that. They need to run to score points, however the Heat were at the same time incredibly patient on offense. In fact, this is why they committed just 1 turnovers on the first half and a total of 5 turnovers on the whole game! The Heat worked really well on their post up game on Game 3 and I expect that to happen once again tonight, something that burns a lot of the shotclock. The Pacers were clueless on defense on the first half of Game 3, but they improved a lot on the second half. I believe Indiana has also understood that they need to double team Lebron James on the post. However, the difference on this series isn't being made by Lebron, who had 36 points and 14-20 FG on Game 2 and the Heat still lost the game. What allowed Miami to crush Indiana on Game 3 were the role players, with Udonis Haslem shooting 8-9 FG, Mario Chalmers 4-6 FG and Chris Anderson 4-4 FG, for a combined effort of 16-19 FG!

Indiana needs to "eliminate" Miami's role players and not just focus on Lebron James. I believe the Pacers will be successful on doing this tonight, especially regarding Haslem. On the other side, with the Heat avoiding turnovers really well, Indiana's transition game doesn't have opportunities to pound the Heat's defense. The Pacers will continue with their edge on the down low, but they won't be able to repeat the 8-14 3pts that they had on Game 3, especially with four of those treys being made on super contested shots. Game 3 also had 28+44=72 FT attempts, something that inflated the total number of points on that contest considerably. Indiana was super aggressive on the second half of Game 2 with 25 FT attempts because they were down by a lot of points, something that won't happen tonight, as I expect a much closer game. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. 

NOTE: This line is currently available at Bovada and SportsInteraction. The public is currently pounding the Over, so it's likely that the line will get even better for us as gametime approaches!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 186 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 05/28: St Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals

MLB - 967 St Louis Cardinals @ 968 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Lyons vs E. Santana)

I liked what I saw from Kansas City yesterday against one of the best pitchers in the league in Adam Wainwright. They had 12 hits in eight innings was good for the Royals, even though they weren't able to be clutch. Kansas City may be struggling, but they hit .270 and .351 BA on their last two games, so they are coming to this game with some fire on their bats. The fact that they will be facing a LH pitcher tonight will only help them, as the Royals have been much better this season in hitting against LH pitchers where they are #11 in the league with .740 OPS, while they are just #26 against RH pitchers. Tyler Lyons had a good start at San Diego, but that's a pitcher-favorable park. I expect things to be much tougher for him tonight.

Erwin Santana will start for Kansas City and he has been solid this season. He had problems on his last start against the Angels due to homeruns, where he allowed four runs, but he still had a 8/0 K/BB ratio on that outing. He simply had the bad luck of facing the best offensive team in the league right now. I expect him to bounce back tonight and help the Royals in getting the win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ E. Santana) @ -112 / 1.89 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 05/28: Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 965 Miami Marlins @ 966 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: K. Slowey vs J. Hellickson)

I believe Kevin Slowey will have a tough time tonight against the Rays. He is an extreme flyball pitcher with a 42.3% FB% vs 30.3% GB% and of course his worst starts of the season are the ones where he allowed homeruns like against Arizona or at LA against the Dodgers. Tampa Bay is #3 in the league on FB% with 38.6% and their offense has been improving as the season goes by and they are hitting .275 BA on their last 10 games against RH pitchers! Therefore, I expect Slowey to have a lot of problems tonight.

On the other hand, Jeremy Hellickson has been quite unlucky this season with a 5.37 ERA, but with a 4.64 FIP and 4.20 xFIP! Homeruns have been his biggest problem this season, but the truth is that Miami is dead last in the league on HR/FB rate with just 3.9%! Hellickson is coming from a start at Toronto, where he allowed just two earned runs in eight innings. If we consider how red hot the Blue Jays have been this season, this was definitely a great start for Hellickson! Now against one of the worst offenses in the league, I expect him to have another dominant outing tonight. 

Therefore, I expect Slowey to struggle and Hellickson to dominate, so I expect an easy win for Tampa Bay tonight. I'm taking them tonight on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (w/ J. Hellickson) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/28: Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 963 Philadelphia Phillies @ 964 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: C. Lee vs R. Dempster).

Yesterday's game between these two teams was a slugfest, with both teams hitting above .300 BA and with the game ending with 12 runs. However, I expect things to be different today and so, I believe this will be a low scoring contest. Cliff Lee has been amazing lately by allowing 0, 2, 0 and 2 earned runs on his last four starts, while his command has been quite good as well. He threw 115 pitches on his last outing, but as he had 5 days to rest prior to tonight's game, I expect him to be rested today. Boston's offense has been super well lately, but the truth is that they do most damage against RH pitchers where they lead the league. However, they are much worse against LH pitchers like Lee by being just #16 in the league with .699 OPS!

So, the key in here will be how Ryan Dempster will perform tonight, as he has been struggling lately. Dempster's pitch counts are getting quite high early on the games and he hasn't reach the fifth inning on his last three outings. However, Dempster has a great 10.83 K/9 ratio this season and this matchup against the Phillies will actually favor him deeply. Philadelphia has a 47.0% swing rate (#9 in the league) and 49.1% (#3) over the past two weeks. This means that Philadelphia's lineup will give a lot of opportunities to Dempster to strike them out. Also note that Dempster's three outings, where he struggled the most, were against Cleveland (#29 in swing rate), Minnesota (#25) and Toronto (#23), three opponents that actually made Dempster work a lot on each inning. This won't happen tonight with Philadelphia and so, I expect Dempster to bounce back tonight.

With both Lee and Dempster having great matchups tonight, I expect his contest to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963/964 Under 8 (w/ C. Lee & R. Dempster) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/28: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers

MLB - 955 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 956 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Gomez vs R. Porcello)

I believe Jeanmar Gomez is being completely overrated and that he will be exposed by Detroit's offense. Gomez may have a 2.75 ERA, but his advanced numbers of 4.96 FIP and 4.26 xFIP tell another story. The Pirates don't want Gomez to go deep on his outings and so, he is yet to go further than the 5th inning. However, Pittsburgh's bullpen has been used a lot lately by having to pitch four innings on each of their last two games. Besides Gomez having advanced numbers much worse than his ERA, the fact is that he had great matchups, as the Cubs are #16 on hitting against RH pitchers with .727 OPS, while Houston is #27, the Mets #22, Seattle #23 and Milwaukee #17! Detroit is #5 on this stat with .782 OPS versus RH pitchers this season, so I expect them to pound Gomez today and get him back to Earth. Therefore, I'll be taking the Tigers' Team Total to go Over tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 4,5 Runs @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes

MLB Free Premium Play 05/28: Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals

Baltimore  at Washington

MLB - 957 Baltimore Orioles @ 958 Washington Nationals (Starting Pitchers: K. Gausman vs N. Adams) Kevin Gausman didn't have a great MLB debut at Toronto, where I faded him and the Orioles with success. However, he is a top prospect and I expect him to pitch much better tonight, as he was comprehensively nervous on his debut, especially while facing a Blue Jays' lineup that has been simply on fire lately by being #3 in the league with a .862 OPS over the last 14 days. I expect things to be different today. Gausman will have his first MLB experience already on his legs, besides the fact that Washington's offense is struggling without Bryce Harper with just .631 OPS (#28) on the last 14 days. On the other side, I expect Nathan Karns to struggle on his MLB debut just like Gausman struggles against Toronto. He is coming directly from AA to the MLB and to make things worst, Baltimore's offense is red hot right now! If Toronto is #3 on the league over the last two weeks, Baltimore is #2 with .891 OPS! Besides that, the Orioles are also #2 on the league against RH pitchers with .811 OPS! Therefore, I expect Baltimore to pound Karns and get a comfortable win tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ K. Gausman) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

NBA Eastern Conference Final: Miami x Indiana Game 3 Recap

NBA Eastern Conference Final: Miami x Indiana Game 3 Recap

Miami had a different approach to this game, no doubt about that! Their mindset was to pound Indiana down low, especially with Lebron on the post more than ever! On the first two games of the series, the Heat had just a post up volume of 3.40% and 5.00%, but on Game 3 that percentage went to 13.8% with 5-10 FG and 1.08 PPP! Indiana's defense doesn't double team anyone and Lebron James took advantage of that to pound Paul George time and time again. The big difference on the Game 3 was that Miami explore Indiana's weaknesses in an impressive way! As I've mentioned countless times this season, Indiana allows their opponents to hit mid-range jumpers and their philosophy is based upon closing the paint and the three-points line without contesting the opposing mid-range shots. The problem was that Miami almost hit almost of their mid-range jumpers, with even Udonis Haslem shooting 8-9 FG! There was clearly a merit from Miami with this approach, but there was also some luck as they hit almost all their shots from mid-range, while Indiana wasn't prepared to defend Miami playing with this new tactic. 

On the other side, we have a classic game for Indiana's offense. Unlike what happened on the Spurs x Grizzlies series, where Memphis's frontcourt was unable to pound San Antonio at the paint, Roy Hibbert and David West are having a tremendous edge down low against Miami. Hibbert shot just 4-12 FG on Game 3, but he shot 12-15 FT and grabbed 7 offensive boards! The truth is that Miami's defense is simply unable to defend Indiana's frontcourt no matter what. On the second half, Indiana was much better on defense. They were more assertive, they gave less space on the down low, but the problem was that their offense was unable to outplay Miami's defense as well. As the Heat had just 5 turnovers, Indiana had a low volume of transition plays with just 6.8%! Still, the Pacers shot a really nice 8-14 (57.1%) 3pts on this game, something that shows how much they struggled down low: 21-59 (35.5%) FG on 2pts shots!

NBA Premium Play 05/27: San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 513 San Antonio Spurs @ 514 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: pk line

San Antonio is by far being the best team on this series, no doubt about this. Tonight's game is a great spot for them to win once again and close the series already due to the physical and mental edges that they have over the Grizzlies. The Spurs had a horrible start of Game 3, something incredible for such an experienced team. They committed eight turnovers that led to eight fastbreak points to the Grizzlies. Gregg Popovich benched his whole starting lineup and eventually the lead of the Grizzlies ended up being 29-11! Memphis surprised me by not showing any offensive adjustment on Game 3 and their first quarter was the result of creating points via their defense than via showing a good offensive flow. The Grizzlies ended the game shooting less than 40% FG, something that shows how much they struggled once again in scoring against San Antonio's defense.

After a disastrous first quarter, the Spurs had just nine turnovers on the last 41 minutes of the game. They bounced back with 59% FG and 18 assists on 37 baskets made. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph were competitive dead tired on the fourth quarter. It showed on the defensive rotations in the third quarter, while the smallball that the Grizzlies used at times was especially tough for their Spanish center. Coach Hollins tried to play small, but the Spurs were able to hang around against the new Grizzlies' lineup without problems. Memphis shot really well from the free throw line against Oklahoma City, but they couldn't shoot better than 10-18 (55.6%) FT on Game 3, something that shows the lack of confidence that they were having right now.

I believe that San Antonio's superior depth will make the difference. Memphis looked really tired down the stretch on Game 3 and they need their starters to perform more than the Spurs, who have a good bench full of backup solutions: Manu Ginobili is coming from his best game on the postseason, while Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw are guarding Zach Randolph pretty well. The Spurs are continuing to generate good looks after good looks on offense, even though that can disappear at times as well. The problem is that Memphis is showing no offensive flow on this series at all. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are being well defended and with their perimeter getting pressured to perform well, they are struggling. The bench offers no solutions and even though Quincy Pondexter is bringing some offensive firepower off the bench, his bad defense is also being exposed by the Spurs' backcourt on the other hand. 

Looking at all of these, I expect the Spurs to close out the series tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 San Antonio Spurs (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 05/27

MLB - 923 Atlanta Braves @ 924 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hudson vs M. Buehrle)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 924 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ M. Buehrle) @ +104 / 2.04 on Bovada

MLB - 927 New York Yankees @ 928 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: P. Hughes vs J. Niese)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 928 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Niese) @ +103 / 2.03 on Bovada

MLB - 931 Los Angeles Angels @ 932 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: C. Wilson vs Z. Greinke)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 931 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ C. Wilson) @ -112 / 1.89 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 05/26: Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 511 Miami Heat @ 512 Indiana Pacers

Projected Line: 178 points

We took the Under on the Game 2 with the expectations that teams would have an offensive letdown after an overtime game in Game 1, but that didn't happen. However, there were some facts that validate what I wrote on that writeup of my Game 2 pick. The game pace was much slower than on Game 1 and both defenses played very well. The problem was that this game was one of those games were good defenses were outplayed by even better offenses! Both teams hit some tough contested shots, as note that after having 24 assists on Game 1, the Heat had just 14 assists on Game 2 but still shot 46.6% FG. On the other side, Indiana had 18 assists on Game 2 (they had 20 on Game 1), but they still shot 50% FG even though just 54% of their shots made were assisted!

But the majority of Game 2 was conditioned by some bad refereeing. Fouls were called everywhere as usual as Scott Foster was on court, but the truth is that both teams got into the bonus really early on the quarters, something that affected the whole rhythm of the game, especially on the second quarter that had 31 FT attempts! Indiana scored 53 points in the first half mostly due to the fact that they had 21 FT attempts, while Miami was so obsessed in forcing turnovers with hard traps on the ball handlers that they forgot to defend down low. Indiana took advantage of that with some sharp passes, with Roy Hibbert having a great game with 10-15 FG, 9-10 FT and 6 offensive rebounds! This was also why Indiana shot 6-10 FG on pick and roll roll man for a great 1.33 PPP! On the other side, Miami's role players were well defended and it looked like Lebron James was still in Cleveland, as he had to do everything on his own! Miami had a smart approach with Lebron on the second half by playing him off curls for several possessions and Lebron ended up making the right decisions in almost every single time. 

Just like it happened on Game 1, both teams could have won Game 2. With the game tied at 93, Indiana scored the last four points of the game via free throw for a great 4-4 FT down the stretch. This was the key on this game, as not only Indiana attempted 32 free throws, as they made 26 of them, while Miami shot just 18-26 (69.2%) FT!

Tonight I'll be taking the Under once again after what I watched on Game 2! The Heat had offensive rates of 105.2 and 108.3 on the first two games of the series, something that shows how well Indiana is defending Miami on this series. The Heat's perimeter shooters are being well guarded, the close outs are being tremendously well done by Indiana and with the Pacers guarding Lebron 1*1 in almost every time, James will always have monster game, but just like it was seen on Game 2, this isn't enough for Miami. The Heat had just 14 assists on Game 2, after averaging 23.2 assists on their previous 10 playoff games!

On the other side, I expect Miami to play better defense tonight. They won't gamble as much on the perimeter just to force turnovers because with one or two passes, the Heat gets quickly exposed down low with that. I also believe the referees are a decisive role for Game 2 to go over the total posted, with too many free throws and especially with Chris Anderson in foul trouble, who eventually only played 15 minutes in that game, something that caused problems on the Heat's defense. Besides that, I don't believe both teams will make so many contested shots like they did in Game 2. For example, I don't expect Miami to hit two buzzer beats tonight like they did on Game 2!

0:00 53-47 Mike Miller makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lebron James assists)

0:00 End of the 2nd Quarter

0:00 76-74 Lebron James makes 29-foot three point jumper

0:00 End of the 3rd Quarter

Therefore, I expect a low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 182 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Eastern Conference Final: Miami x Indiana Game 2 Recap

NBA Eastern Conference Final: Miami x Indiana Game 2 Recap

We took the Under on the Game 2 with the expectations that teams would have an offensive letdown after an overtime game in Game 1, but that didn't happen. However, there were some facts that validate what I wrote on that writeup of my Game 2 pick. The game pace was much slower than on Game 1 and both defenses played very well. The problem was that this game was one of those games were good defenses were outplayed by even better offenses! Both teams hit some tough contested shots, as note that after having 24 assists on Game 1, the Heat had just 14 assists on Game 2 but still shot 46.6% FG. On the other side, Indiana had 18 assists on Game 2 (they had 20 on Game 1), but they still shot 50% FG even though just 54% of their shots made were assisted!

But the majority of Game 2 was conditioned by some bad refereeing. Fouls were called everywhere as usual as Scott Foster was on court, but the truth is that both teams got into the bonus really early on the quarters, something that affected the whole rhythm of the game, especially on the second quarter that had 31 FT attempts! Indiana scored 53 points in the first half mostly due to the fact that they had 21 FT attempts, while Miami was so obsessed in forcing turnovers with hard traps on the ball handlers that they forgot to defend down low. Indiana took advantage of that with some sharp passes, with Roy Hibbert having a great game with 10-15 FG, 9-10 FT and 6 offensive rebounds! This was also why Indiana shot 6-10 FG on pick and roll roll man for a great 1.33 PPP! On the other side, Miami's role players were well defended and it looked like Lebron James was still in Cleveland, as he had to do everything on his own! Miami had a smart approach with Lebron on the second half by playing him off curls for several possessions and Lebron ended up making the right decisions in almost every single time. 

Just like it happened on Game 1, both teams could have won Game 2. With the game tied at 93, Indiana scored the last four points of the game via free throw for a great 4-4 FT down the stretch. This was the key on this game, as not only Indiana attempted 32 free throws, as they made 26 of them, while Miami shot just 18-26 (69.2%) FT!

NBA Premium Play 05/25: San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 509 San Antonio Spurs @ 510 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Lines: 183 points | Memphis by 2 points

Both teams had very inconsistent performances on this game. San Antonio had some phases of pure offensive domination, where their baskets would be the result of good looks, with no contested shots. On Game 1, they dished 28 assists for 40 FG made and on this game, they had 29 assists and 36 FG made for an absurd 80.5 A/rate%! The Spurs were superb in passing the ball: drive and kicks to the shooters, great passes for the open frontcourt player on pick and rolls, you name it! So, no wonder that San Antonio shot 9-10 FG 1.82 PPP on cuts and 11-22 FG 1.33 PPP on spot ups, after having had 15-27 and 1.50 PPP on spot ups on Game 1! The problem for the Spurs was that they struggled on keeping their focus in some moments. Their offense went awol and they couldn't score a single point on the last 4:24 of the first quarter and they scored just 2 points on the last 8:11 of the fourth quarter! If we add these two periods, it was like the Spurs scored just 2 points for a whole quarter!

Memphis tried since early on to put Zach Randolph in evidence on the game, in such a way that their offense lost all its flow. Mike Conley got in early foul trouble and he is the key for his team's offense. But the truth is that Memphis ended up having way better numbers on post ups (17% volume and 0.65 PPP) on Game 2, after having just 11% volume and 0.33 PPP on Game 1.  Memphis's starting lineup has been struggling on offense, as Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince bring no threat on the perimeter with their poor shooting, especially Prince who shot 9-31 FG on the last 5 games! San Antonio's defense can then focus on Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, so if one of Prince or Allen is on court brings an edge to the Spurs' defense, let alone when both are on court at the same time! This is why Coach Hollins made a great adjustment: he benched Prince, who played just 16 minutes on Game 2! Quincy Pondexter played on Prince's position for 37 minutes, something that gives thew Grizzlies a much bigger threat on the mid-range shooting to the Grizzlies. In fact, the Grizzlies had their best moment on Game 2 when they presented the following lineup: Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Quincy Pondexter, Jerryd Bayless and Mike Conley! I believe the Grizzlies will continue insisting on this lineup to try to be competitive on this series.

On the other side, Tim Duncan was limited due to foul trouble on Game 2 and he played just 31 minutes. But during that span, San Antonio outscored Memphis by 22 points! On the other side, Mike Conley was also limited to 35 minutes due to foul trouble, but with him on court, the Grizzlies outscored the Spurs by 1 point! It would have been interesting to check the final score of this game if these two players hadn't been in foul trouble!

Now onto tonight's game. There was a 3 days span between the Game 2 and 3 of this series and this is unusual. The long rest will benefit both offenses, as their best players will come with fresh legs. I quickly remember that Tony Parker had these extra days for example to heal his calf injury. I referred that on Game 2, Memphis would be more concerned on making defensive adjustments as they didn't have time between the Games 1 and 2 of this series to make offensive adjustments. But for tonight's Game 3, I expect Memphis to show some new adjustments on their tactics, especially in being more effective in putting the ball on Zach Randolph down low. I expect the Grizzlies to be much more aggressive at home and therefore this will give them more free throw attempts! Memphis had just 6 FT attempts on the first half of Game 2, just to have 14 attempts only on the third quarter! This was the key for the Grizzlies to score 33 points on that quarter! They eventually had a total of 20 FT attempts on the second half. The Grizzlies are attempting 32.2 FT/game at home on these playoffs, while they have just 27.8 FT/game on the road, so I expect them to indeed come quite aggressive on their first home game of this series.

The fact that the backcourt lineup formed by Mike Conley, Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter worked so well on Game 2 will make Hollins insert this lineup really soon on tonight's game if the Grizzlies' staring unit starts showing offensive struggles once again. Mike Conley was in foul trouble on Game 2, but on the 35 minutes that he played, he was able to produce a remarkable 117 offensive rating, while being the only starter that attempts some treys: 2-5! If we combine all these factors, then Memphis has all the conditions to have a better overall offensive game that they had on the first two games of this series, as I even doubt that the Grizzlies will shoot once again 2-12 FG on offensive rebound plays!

The problem for the Grizzlies is that San Antonio's offense has been a legit threat on this series. They dished 28 and 29 assists on the first two games of this series, something that shows the clear amount of good looks that the Spurs are having on this series. A rested Tony Parker is playing at a MVP level and San Antonio is more than ready to explore Memphis's problems on pick and roll defense, especially with the lack of speed from Zach Randolph. San Antonio's role players are all confident and they are also shooting well right now. Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw are all showing good flow and they aren't hiding themselves from the game. On a rested spot like this one, I expect San Antonio to be super competitive, as even though Memphis will improve their offensive performance tonight, San Antonio's great ball movement will generate a lot of good looks that will certainly create points for them. The Spurs are 4-1 SU & ATS on the road on this postseason, with their only loss being at overtime, so I expect the Spurs to be competitive once again tonight, on a surprisingly relatively high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking both San Antonio and the Over tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 178.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 San Antonio Spurs (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 05/25

MLB - 915 Baltimore Orioles @ 916 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: F. Garcia vs R. Dickey)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 916 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ R. Dickey) @ -144 / 1.70 on 5Dimes

MLB - 921 Minnesota Twins @ 922 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: P. Walters vs D. Fister)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 922 Detroit Tigers RL -1.5 (w/ D. Fister) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

MLB - 927 Texas Rangers @ 928 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: D. Holland vs F. Hernandez)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 928 Seattle Mariners ML (w/ F. Hernandez) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

WNBA Premium Card 05/25

WNBA - 651 New York Liberty @ 652 Connecticut Sun

Projected Line: 154 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Over 150 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

WNBA - 653 Tulsa Shock @ 654 Atlanta Dream

Projected Line: 153 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Under 157 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Western Conference Final: San Antonio x Memphis Game 2 Recap

NBA Western Conference Final: San Antonio x Memphis Game 2 Recap

Both teams had very inconsistent performances on this game. San Antonio had some phases of pure offensive domination, where their baskets would be the result of good looks, with no contested shots. On Game 1, they dished 28 assists for 40 FG made and on this game, they had 29 assists and 36 FG made for an absurd 80.5 A/rate%! The Spurs were superb in passing the ball: drive and kicks to the shooters, great passes for the open frontcourt player on pick and rolls, you name it! So, no wonder that San Antonio shot 9-10 FG 1.82 PPP on cuts and 11-22 FG 1.33 PPP on spot ups, after having had 15-27 and 1.50 PPP on spot ups on Game 1! The problem for the Spurs was that they struggled on keeping their focus in some moments. Their offense went awol and they couldn't score a single point on the last 4:24 of the first quarter and they scored just 2 points on the last 8:11 of the fourth quarter! If we add these two periods, it was like the Spurs scored just 2 points for a whole quarter!

Memphis tried since early on to put Zach Randolph in evidence on the game, in such a way that their offense lost all its flow. Mike Conley got in early foul trouble and he is the key for his team's offense. But the truth is that Memphis ended up having way better numbers on post ups (17% volume and 0.65 PPP) on Game 2, after having just 11% volume and 0.33 PPP on Game 1.  Memphis's starting lineup has been struggling on offense, as Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince bring no threat on the perimeter with their poor shooting, especially Prince who shot 9-31 FG on the last 5 games! San Antonio's defense can then focus on Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, so if one of Prince or Allen is on court brings an edge to the Spurs' defense, let alone when both are on court at the same time! This is why Coach Hollins made a great adjustment: he benched Prince, who played just 16 minutes on Game 2! Quincy Pondexter played on Prince's position for 37 minutes, something that gives thew Grizzlies a much bigger threat on the mid-range shooting to the Grizzlies. In fact, the Grizzlies had their best moment on Game 2 when they presented the following lineup: Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Quincy Pondexter, Jerryd Bayless and Mike Conley! I believe the Grizzlies will continue insisting on this lineup to try to be competitive on this series.

On the other side, Tim Duncan was limited due to foul trouble on Game 2 and he played just 31 minutes. But during that span, San Antonio outscored Memphis by 22 points! On the other side, Mike Conley was also limited to 35 minutes due to foul trouble, but with him on court, the Grizzlies outscored the Spurs by 1 point! It would have been interesting to check the final score of this game if these two players hadn't been in foul trouble!

NBA Premium Play 05/24: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

NBA - 507 Indiana Pacers @ 508 Miami Heat

Projected Line: 178 points

The Game 1 of this series was a very intense one as expected, where the Pacers went toe to toe without problems against the Heat. It was curious to see how both teams weren't able to take advantage of their supposed edges that they would have against this opponent: Indiana had a rebound rate of just 52.7% with 17 offensive boards, but they allowed on the other hand the Heat to grab a remarkable 16 offensive boards on their own! At the same time, the Heat's ball pressure on defense was supposed to create problems to Indiana's poor ball handling skills and indeed that happened, as Indiana committed 20 turnovers that resulted in 22 points for Miami. The problem was that the Heat was sloppy as well by committing 21 turnovers of their own!

Miami knows how tough it will be to get good clean looks from the outside on this series and they shot just 5-18 3pts. These five treys made was lowest mark of the Heat on these postseason so far. However, Miami's gameplan was a good one and it worked all game long: attack the rim with Lebron James, Dwyane Wade or even Norris Cole, expect Indiana's big man to come clog the lane and then a new Heat player would make a cut to the basket and receive the ball. This is why Miami had a terrific 10-12 FG 1.57 PPP stellar mark on cuts! The majority of those plays were converted by Chris Anderson, who was amazing with 7-7 FG and 3 offensive rebounds, while also getting three shots blocked! On the other side, Indiana attacked pretty well the edge that David West has against really everybody of the Heat to pound then down low. The Pacers' backcourt struggled as expected due to Miami's pressure, but at least they were active in all facets of the game. 

But what everybody is talking about is the decision of coach Frank Vogel to leave Roy Hibbert in the bench on the final play of the game. This might look like a really bad decision at first sight, but we have to take in account that Hibbert looked really tired on overtime and on almost three straight defensive possessions he got beaten by Anderson on the glass by allowing him to grab an offensive rebound, then he got beaten on a post up play (!) and finally, he was also outmatched by Bosh on an offensive board that resulted on a 2+1 play! Perhaps this was why Hibbert got benched on the final play of the game.

Now onto the Game 2 of this series. I believe we have value on the Under in here even though the totals line is lower than it was on Game 1. The first game of this series was very intense, with the game going into overtime. Indiana's starters all played over 41 minutes, while on the other side, Lebron James played 47 minutes and Dwyane Wade played 41 minutes even though he has a sore knee. He was still able to have an excellent game with 9-15 FG, 5 assists, 3 steals and 1 block, but the physical consequences for tonight's game are obvious. With Wade struggling to replicate tonight what he did on Game 1, Indiana's defense will be able to focus even more in stopping Lebron. Indiana's close outs on the perimeter were excellent in Game 1 and they only struggled in defending Miami's cuts to the basket. If Miami had merit in some of them, Indiana's sloppy off ball defense on Game 1 won't happen tonight once again and so, I believe the Pacers' cuts defense will be better tonight.

Due to the great ball pressure of the Heat on Game 1, Indiana's offense ended up struggling. Only the Pacers' big men played well: David West shot 11-17 FG, Roy Hibbert 9-18 FG and even Tyler Hansbrough shot 5-8 FG! However Indiana shot just 6-14 FG 0.78 PPP on post ups! Their major damage was on offensive boards, where they were excellent with 8-11 FG and 1.38 PPP! Possibly Chris Anderson will play more minutes tonight, as he seems more effective on defense than Shane Battier on this series. Indiana was super aggressive on the offensive end with 32 FT attempts and 17 offensive rebounds, but with heavy legs tonight, they won't be able to repeat such stellar numbers. When the Pacers aren't aggressive on offense, they turn into an offensive disaster as previous seen on these playoffs.

Therefore, I expect this contest to be a really low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 182 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 05/24: Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 971 Cleveland Indians @ 972 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: J. Masterson vs J. Lackey)

Looking at the weather report, it's likely that this game will have some rain delays and if we had a perfect spot for the over yesterday, today the wind will helping the pitchers instead. Cleveland will be starting Justin Masterson, who after a bad stretch has returned to the ace-like level that he had shown at the start of the season by allowing just 0, 0 and 3 runs on his last three starts against Seattle, the NY Yankees and Oakland! He has some previous nice numbers against the Red Sox, but he actually allowed 4 runs in 5 innings on a previous start against them this season, even though that he was unlucky in that game as he had a 7.20 ERA in that outing, while having a 2.24 FIP and 3.97 xFIP! What ruined his performance on that game was the quite high .524 BABIP, his season high!

On the other side, John Lackey has been pitching well for the Red Sox this season. He had just one bad start at Tampa Bay in four games, while showing a good command with just two walks on his last three games. This is why he has overall good numbers this season: 3.31 ERA, 3.11 FIP and 3.23 xFIP! Having in account that the Indians' lineup is full of LH batters, Lackey has a good matchup tonight as he has 3.21 FIP and 3.97 xFIP against LH batters this season, while Cleveland's current roster is hitting just .221 BA and .713 OPS against him. Therefore, we have all conditions in here to have a surprising low scoring contest tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971/972 Under 9 (w/ J. Masterson & J. Lackey) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/24: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 969 New York Yankees @ 970 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: D. Phelps vs R. Hernandez)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

I took Roberto Hernandez on his last start at Baltimore and I was lucky because he only pitched for two innings, as he allowed five runs and eight hits during that span. Fortunately for us, Baltimore's bullpen choked the game away at the end. Hernandez's main issue has been with homeruns. His best pitch is the changeup and he has a nice matchup tonight, as the Yankees are just #19 on hitting against those this season. Hernandez hasn't pitched against the Yankees since 2011, so I believe he has a bit of surprise factor going on tonight and this will allow him to bounce back nicely at home. 

On the other side, David Phelps is coming from two starts where he threw 115 and 113 pitches! He had 8/3 and 7/5 K/BB ratios in those outings, but considering that he faced the Blue Jays and the Indians in those starts, I can't say that he was terrible on those games. Phelps's main pitch is the cutter, but he will struggle tonight as Tampa Bay is #2 in the league in hitting against those. I see the Rays being underrated in here, as Hernandez isn't a weaker pitcher than Phelps, while he actually has a better matchup tonight and the Rays' lineup is certainly hitting better than the Yankees right now. If we add the home factor, I expect Tampa Bay to pick up a nice win over their divisional rivals in here! So, I'll be taking it on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 970 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ R. Hernandez) @ -113 / 1.89 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 05/24: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

MLB - 963 Colorado Rockies @ 964 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: T. Chatwood vs T. Lincecum)

This is a rematch from six days ago, with these two teams faced each other in Colorado, while starting these two pitchers as well. Tim Lincecum got absolutely crushed in that outing by allowing six runs and seven hits in five innings, while having a 4/2 K/BB ratio. Lincecum has been pitching better at home than on the road this season mostly due to a much better HR/9 mark: 0.68 vs 1.33 on the road! However, winds will be blowing out to center field at 10-15 mph tonight, so he should get into trouble even though this game will be played at San Francisco. This will be Lincecum's third start of the season against the Rockies and he allowed six runs each on the first two games!

On the other hand, the Rockies will start Tyler Chatwood and even though that he won the decision six days ago, he was quite lucky with just one run allowed in 5.2 innings, as he allowed seven hits and had a 4/4 K/BB ratio! With him having his second start of the season against the Giants tonight, who happens to be #7 in the league in hitting against RH pitchers this season with a .764 OPS, I believe he will struggle much more than he did at Colorado last week. Therefore, I see this game being a relatively high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963/964 Over 8 (w/ T. Chatwood & T. Lincecum) @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 05/24: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB - 959 San Diego Padres @ 960 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: E. Stults vs B. McCarthy)

Arizona will start Brandon McCarthy, who has been slightly improving lately after a terrible start of the season. He didn't allow a single run on his last two outings, where he pitched for eight and nine innings! However, I can't ignore the fact that he faced Miami, Philadelphia and the LA Dodgers on his last three starts, the three teams that are exactly in the bottom three this season in hitting versus RH pitchers! He will now face San Diego, who is #18 in the league against RH pitchers with .712 OPS this season and with a decent .278 BA on their last 10 games! McCarthy's go-to-pitch is the cutter and San Diego is #5 in the league in hitting against those. Therefore, I believe McCarthy will go back to struggling tonight in my opinion. 

On the other side, San Diego will start Eric Stults who is coming from an outing against Washington, where he allowed just one run in eight winnings. This was another good outing from him, who has allowed just seven runs on his last four starts on a span of 26.1 innings. Stults has been solid lately, but his season numbers aren't that great: 4.05 ERA, 3.81 FIP and 4.32 xFIP! Stults struggled against Tampa Bay and San Francisco earlier on the season and these two teams are #11 and #24 respectively on hitting against LH pitchers this season. On the other hand, Arizona is #20 with .672 OPS, while showing some improvements on this area lately. Stults is likely to struggle tonight, as he has a flyball rate a bit high. Therefore, I see this game turning into a shootout and so, I'll be taking the Over tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959/960 Over 9 (w/ E. Stults & B. McCarthy) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 05/24: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

MLB - 955 Chicago Cubs @ 956 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: S. Feldman vs B. Arroyo)

Cincinnati had a day off after having crushed the Mets on the road. On the other hand, the Cubs got swept at Pittsburgh, including a loss yesterday on an early game. They will start Scott Feldman today, who has been impressive in May, including a great start against the Mets, where he shutdown them for 6.2 innings for his fifth quality start in a row. Feldman is 3-0 in May and he has allowed just three runs and 17 hits on his last starts, while having a great 27/6 K/BB ratio as well! Even his advanced numbers don't lie: 1.69, 2.54, 2.62 and 3.60 FIP on these four outings! He has been great on throwing cutters and curveballs, two areas where the Reds' offense is #20 and #10 on the league. This will be his first start against Cincinnati and only Choo, Hannahan and Izturis have previous at bats against him, with a combined of 6-39 .154 BA! This is definitely a great spot for Feldman to continue his dominant May!

On the other hand, the Reds will start Brandon Arroyo tonight, who didn't allow a single run on his last two outings, while having 6/2 and 5/1 K/BB ratios! He has been pitching well against RH hitters as usual, with a 2.65 FIP and 3.43 xFIP, while he has been pounded by LH batters with his FIP and xFIP close to 5.00! Having in account that his last two outings where he was impressive were against Milwaukee (full of righties) and Philadelphia (awful hitting team), Arroyo simply took advantage of nice matchups to impress. The Cubs are hitting .292 BA on his last 10 games against RH pitchers and they are #16 in the league versus RH pitchers with a .727 OPS! Not bad at all! Considering how Feldman has a great spot and how Arroyo is prone to some struggles, I see the Cubs having a great value at the current odds and so, I'll be taking them in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ S. Feldman) @ +143 / 2.43 on Bovada

MLB Free Premium Play 05/24: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore  at Toronto

MLB - 965 Baltimore Orioles @ 966 Toronto Blue Jays (Starting Pitchers: C. Tillman vs S. Nolin) Toronto will start Sean Nolin tonight, who is earning his first trip to the big leagues by going 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA on three starts for New Hampshire. This is a huge test for him, as he has never pitched above Double-A. He is coming from Double-A into the major leagues to debut against a team that is #2 in the league in hitting against LH pitchers with a .794 OPS! Good luck! Baltimore will start Chris Tillman, who continues to be in some nice form. He had a few problems against Tampa Bay on his last start, but he hung in there with just three runs allowed in six innings. I believe Tillman will be able to have another positive outing tonight, while Baltimore will expose Nolin's lack of experience at this level to pound him. Therefore, I see a clear pitching edge in here for the Orioles, while both lineups are hitting quite well and at a similar level right now, so I see good value on taking Baltimore tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 965 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ C. Tillman) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

NBA Eastern Conference Final: Miami x Indiana Game 1 Recap

NBA Eastern Conference Final: Miami x Indiana Game 1 Recap

The Game 1 of this series was a very intense one as expected, where the Pacers went toe to toe without problems against the Heat. It was curious to see how both teams weren't able to take advantage of their supposed edges that they would have against this opponent: Indiana had a rebound rate of just 52.7% with 17 offensive boards, but they allowed on the other hand the Heat to grab a remarkable 16 offensive boards on their own! At the same time, the Heat's ball pressure on defense was supposed to create problems to Indiana's poor ball handling skills and indeed that happened, as Indiana committed 20 turnovers that resulted in 22 points for Miami. The problem was that the Heat was sloppy as well by committing 21 turnovers of their own!

Miami knows how tough it will be to get good clean looks from the outside on this series and they shot just 5-18 3pts. These five treys made was lowest mark of the Heat on these postseason so far. However, Miami's gameplan was a good one and it worked all game long: attack the rim with Lebron James, Dwyane Wade or even Norris Cole, expect Indiana's big man to come clog the lane and then a new Heat player would make a cut to the basket and receive the ball. This is why Miami had a terrific 10-12 FG 1.57 PPP stellar mark on cuts! The majority of those plays were converted by Chris Anderson, who was amazing with 7-7 FG and 3 offensive rebounds, while also getting three shots blocked! On the other side, Indiana attacked pretty well the edge that David West has against really everybody of the Heat to pound then down low. The Pacers' backcourt struggled as expected due to Miami's pressure, but at least they were active in all facets of the game. 

But what everybody is talking about is the decision of coach Frank Vogel to leave Roy Hibbert in the bench on the final play of the game. This might look like a really bad decision at first sight, but we have to take in account that Hibbert looked really tired on overtime and on almost three straight defensive possessions he got beaten by Anderson on the glass by allowing him to grab an offensive rebound, then he got beaten on a post up play (!) and finally, he was also outmatched by Bosh on an offensive board that resulted on a 2+1 play! Perhaps this was why Hibbert got benched on the final play of the game.

MLB Premium Play 05/23: Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals

MLB - 909 Los Angeles Angels @ 910 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Blanton vs E. Santana)

If we look at how the Angels are hitting right now, they are close to immediate value every time they are underdogs. They will face Erwin Santana and the Royals tonight and as a former Angel, Santana won't have any kind of surprise factor going on for him tonight. He has been pitching quite well this season, but honestly looking at the Angels' hitting form right now, I expect Santana to end up getting in trouble sooner or later tonight.

So, it's up to know what Joe Blanton will be able to do tonight. He is coming from a poor outing against the White Sox, where he had already allowed 10 hits in 4 innings, even though no run was scored in all those hits! In fact, Blanton has allowed 11 and 12 hits on his last two starts. However, it's also important to mention that his command was impeccable in those starts with 6/2 and 7/0 K/BB ratios! Unfortunately for him he had .611 and .632 BABIP in those outings, but I expect him to be a bit more lucky tonight. Kansas City has been slumping a bit on their hitting lately and they are just #24 in the league with .683 OPS this season versus RH pitchers. Therefore, I expect Blanton to have a decent outing tonight, while the Angels' lineup have another nice game, so I see good value on the Angels as underdogs in here.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 909 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ J. Blanton) @ +117 / 2.17 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 05/23: Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 907 Cleveland Indians @ 908 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: Z. McAllister vs R. Dempster)

Cleveland will start Zach McAllister tonight, who has been having some luck on his games, as even though he has a season ERA of 2.65, his 4.17 FIP and 4.50 xFIP shows that some regression is quite likely to happen soon. He is coming from a decent outing against Seattle, one of the worst teams in the league this season in hitting versus RH pitchers (#26 with .681 OPS). However, he had just one strikeout and his game logs weren't great at all: 2.45 ERA, but 4.94 FIP and 5.32 xFIP! He will now face the Red Sox, who are #1 in the league in hitting against RH pitchers with a great .807 OPS! McAllister has already faced Boston this season and he had to throw 112 pitches just to make it to the 5th inning! He allowed 3 runs in that outing, while walking three batters as well. He is a flyball pitcher with a 41% FB% and with the wind blowing out to left field at 10-20 mph, I expect him to really struggle tonight.

On the other side, Ryan Dempster is coming from a huge pitch count on his last outing: 127 pitches in just 4.2 innings! He had just 4 days of rest prior to this game, so this is really a poor spot for him! He had a FIP higher than 6.00 on his last two outings, so it seems clear that Dempster is struggling right now. If we exclude a game where they faced Max Scherzer and the Tigers, Cleveland's offense has been excellent lately and so, I expect them to pound Dempster tonight. Therefore, I expect a very high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907/908 Over 9,5 (w/ Z. McAllister & R. Dempster) @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline