NBA - 811 Houston Rockets @ 812 New Orleans Hornets
Projected Line: Houston by 2 points
I have a strong feeling that Houston is going to be very competitive tonight. After losing at home against Denver, coach Kevin McHale had a curious attitude:
“The Rockets braced themselves for what they were sure would be a horror show. With losses in eight of nine games and a myriad of issues to address, the day’s video session was certain to be ugly. Instead, the players loved it. It was beautiful, their favorite video review of the season. Rather than continue to “hammer” his players with what was going wrong, Kevin McHale — that new-school, kumbaya coach — broke out video of the Rockets’ offense at its best. McHale showed the fast break clicking in Chicago and the ball zipping in San Antonio. He showed sharp, hard cuts and precise spacing. The Rockets saw themselves putting up lead-the-league numbers on the road against a pair of division leaders and came away not only convinced they could do it again but also certain how to do it."
“I think it was something really smart from our coaching staff,” forward Carlos Delfino said. “We could have all looked at our mistakes, but all the video we did was watching good situations from December. Sometimes you don’t need to just hammer your head about your mistakes. You show what you did before, good stuff. You learn the game from your eyes, like, ‘OK, we can do this. We’ve been doing this.’ Now we have to translate that to the court.”
It seems clear that Houston is struggling right now. They had a super heavy schedule recently, their opponents are more used to their style and of course, regarding their last game, Denver is possibly their worst matchup in the whole league for them. Houston's offense depends a lot from having good pick and roll ball handler plays and transitions, while avoiding a high number of turnovers, in order to be competitive. Houston actually managed to have nice transition numbers against Denver with 22 fast break points and 8-12 FG on transitions, but they committed 23 turnovers and they struggled on pick and roll ball handler plays with 2-8 FG and 5 turnovers in 14 plays. The question is that Denver's defense is an elite unit in these areas, while New Orleans isn't: #22 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #29 on transition defense and #26 on opponent turnover rate. They are in the bottom 10 in the league in these three areas, so no wonder that Houston is 2-1 against the Hornets this season, while their loss was in a big choke, where they were leading 88-89, just to allow a 29-10 4th quarter run to the Hornets. However, that game was played in a back to back spot for the Rockets, who had played a huge game at LA against the Lakers in the night before and I've already mentioned in the past how the Rockets struggle in back to back spots.
New Orleans got completely torched in transitions and pick and rolls in their last game at San Antonio. Without Tim Duncan on the court, San Antonio's offense was more perimeter-based than usual and Tony Parker absolutely helped his team to torch the Hornets's poor transition defense with 25 fast break points and 12-17 FG in transitions. The Spurs also scored 66 points in the paint. Their only problem was their lack of long range shooting with 7-26 FG on spot up plays and 8-25 3pts! The Hornets's offense has been amazing on pick and rolls lately, with Greivis Vasquez in the playmaking and their transitions have also been nice. The Hornets will also some edges on offense tonight, but I don't believe they will be able to matchup Houston's great offensive spot for tonight, especially with James Harden leading the way down the stretch. I'm taking the Rockets tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811 Houston Rockets (+2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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