Thursday, January 24, 2013

NBA Premium Play 01/23: Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trailblazers


NBA - 717 Indiana Pacers @ 718 Portland Trailblazers

Projected Line: Portland by 4 points

Portland is coming from a home loss against Washington, where they got absolutely pounded down low by Nene Hilario and Emeka Okafor. In fact, if it wasn't for the silly turnovers that Washington committed and the Wizards would have won that game with a clear margin. Portland was poor on transitions with 1-6 FG and their whole offense was very inconsistent, as the results shows, with two high scoring quarters and two low scoring quarters. On the other hand, Indiana is coming from a road win in Memphis, on a super tight game between two top defenses. Memphis had an edge on rebounds and turnovers, but Indiana's outside shooting made the difference. However, the Pacers are on a clear letdown spot for tonight. They are coming from a brutal physical game at Memphis last Monday and then, they had to make a huge trip to Portland. Even their mindset is tough for them today, as they are coming from playing a top game and they will now face the struggling Blazers.

The Blazers's offense depends a lot from Damian Lillard's pick and rolls and his combinations with LaMarcus Aldridge and he already know that the Pacers's only problem on defense is in defending pick and rolls, where they are just #21 in the league while allowing 0.81 PPP. In the first game between these two teams, this was evident with Lillard having 9-15 FG, 23 points and 6 rebounds, while allowing his team to be competitive at Indiana. The Pacers are also struggling on their perimeter defense over their last 10 games. They are monsters at the rim with just 50% FG allowed on their last 10 games, but on their perimeter defense, they have been allowing 41% FG from 16-23 feet and 39.3% 3pts over their last 10 games! Having in account they will now face the Blazers, who are a jump shooting, these are good news for Portland.

Portland struggled on their interior defense against Washington and Indiana has a powerful frontcourt to pound them as well tonight. However, the Pacers's offense might struggle today in such a poor spot, as they are coming from a very physical game against Memphis and it is likely that they won't be at 100% to play this contest. Portland has a clear edge in here in terms of spot, mindset and even matchup on their offense against the Pacers's defense. Therefore, I expect Portland to bounce back today and get a very good win over a top team like Indiana. I'm taking the Blazers in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 718 Portland Trailblazers (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

No comments:

Post a Comment