NBA - 805 Detroit Pistons @ 806 Miami Heat
Projected Line: Miami by 13 points
Detroit is coming from a loss in Chicago, in a very slow paced game. Detroit just couldn't score in transition because they didn't have chances to do that, but they wasted a 17 points lead late in the game due to tired legs, pressure, Chicago's intensity, while Detroit's both defense and offense collapsed. On the other hand, Miami is coming from a home win against Toronto in overtime. Toronto's didn't turn the ball often, so Miami had little chances to attack in transition. However, they played a good offensive game with 55% FG and 9-22 3pts. Their problem was really on defense possibly due to a long layoff prior to this contest.
Miami didn't manage to force turnovers to the Raptors, but Detroit is much more turnover prone than Toronto and they have been terrible lately with a turnover rate of 15.06% over their last 10 games! This is why they have been allowing 16 fast break points per game over the last 8 games and so, Miami is going to crush them in transitions today. The Pistons's defense is also just #24 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #30 in post up defense, so Miami has every condition necessary to have a big offensive game, especially on a revenge game, as they lost in Detroit earlier on the season.
Detroit might have some size edge on the frontcourt in terms of offensive rebounding and scoring in the paint, however Miami is only allowing 55% FG at the rim over their last 10 games. Detroit might have a decent offensive game tonight, but it won't be enough to keep themselves close in the score, with Miami having a huge offensive game tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 806 Miami Heat (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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