NBA Free Premium Play 01/31: Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies

Denver  at Memphis

NBA - 509 Denver Nuggets @ 510 Memphis Grizzlies Projected line: 203 points Memphis is coming from a very heavy home loss against the Spurs last night, where after the game, in unison, O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay demanded that no one else enter the locker room after the game ended. They spent more than 20 minutes addressing the team’s lack of focus, trust, hustle, defense, rebounding and offensive execution! This was the 5th game in a row where the team couldn't even get to 100 in terms of offensive rates! I watched Conley saying before the game that the team needed to be more aggressive and not be so perimeter oriented, but in the end, the same problems occurred. The Grizzlies shot just 8-14 FG at the rim and we are talking about a team who is averaging +31% volume at the rim this season! Memphis shot 9-25 FG from 16-23 feet, with Rudy Gay shooting 0-7 FG, showing no aggressiveness! Besides that, Memphis wasn't able to use their transition plays, as the whole game was on half court, as San Antonio dominated the boards (33-20 in offensive rebounds/rates) and that prevented the transitions from the Grizzlies. Memphis scored just 7 fast break points and 2-2 FG on transition plays! For today, Denver will certainly allow Memphis to play fast and score on open court, something that has been problematic for them! Against the Clippers, Denver lost a close game without Lawson, where the red hot outside shooting of the Clippers was the key. After the game, coach Karl said that the team really missed Lawson: "How we like to play and how we play efficiently is with a lot of speed and open-court quickness and aggressiveness," Karl said. "We did a good job of getting a lot of that into the game (against the Clippers), but we didn't get as much as we normally get into the game. Probably the efficiency of our pick-and-roll game, our penetration game, was down because Ty didn't have 20 of those possessions"; "Without Ty, it's above average. With Ty, it's special." The good news for Denver is that Lawson is probable for today and so, the Nuggets will push up the pace and with that, Memphis will have their chances on a big bounce back spot for them: super aggressive, especially Gay! Denver's rim defense is mediocre by allowing 67% FG and also Denver has been a subpar defensive team in stopping their opponents to score via offensive rebounds (#29 by allowing 1.17 PPP!). On the other side, Denver is coming from a home loss against the Clippers, so this is also a bounce back spot for them. The Nuggets will explore the lack of depth in the Grizzlies frontcourt and they will crush Memphis in terms of offensive rebounds and the paint. I expect both teams to be very aggressive today and to have good offensive games, so I came up with a totals projection line of 203 points, high enough for me to take the over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Advanced Stats Numbers 01/30

Orlando at Philadelphia							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
ORL	18	15	9	27	69		83.06	82.92	0.38	14.61	29.63	12.82
PHI	19	18	21	16	74			89.26	0.40	7.34	18.75	12.50
Chicago at Washington							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CHI	26	25	25	22	98		91.85	106.74	0.49	17.65	31.58	32.00
WAS	16	24	19	29	88			95.77	0.42	14.07	39.13	11.96
New Orleans at Miami							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
NO	29	20	19	27	95		88.13	107.14	0.56	13.49	12.50	14.67
MIA	27	24	36	22	109			124.44	0.59	14.67	34.38	21.79
Detroit at Milwaukee							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DET	16	25	19	22	82		86.52	94.07	0.39	14.84	33.33	20.48
MIL	30	17	28	28	103			119.96	0.59	15.55	21.88	30.00
San Antonio at Memphis							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
SA	24	21	25	13	83		87.07	95.43	0.46	17.21	32.56	11.25
MEM	19	16	15	23	73			83.75	0.39	17.21	20.00	21.92
Minnesota at Houston							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIN	26	28	42	24	120		94.96	126.72	0.62	17.04	23.33	37.84
HOU	24	32	25	27	108			113.41	0.51	10.89	25.00	24.71
Portland at Utah							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
POR	26	19	25	19	89		89.97	98.92	0.49	13.17	13.16	12.50
UTA	20	19	30	24	93			103.37	0.40	9.85	36.00	30.95
Dallas at Phoenix							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DAL	31	35	30	26	122		91.07	132.49	0.63	10.39	27.78	13.79
PHO	24	24	22	29	99			109.94	0.51	11.90	17.07	21.25
Oklahoma City at L.A. Clippers							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
OKC	25	21	24	30	100		91.07	109.51	0.54	16.17	27.03	19.23
LAC	36	28	26	22	112			123.33	0.64	13.92	18.75	11.25