NFL Week 4 - 199 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 200 Minnesota Vikings (played in London)
Projected Line: Pittsburgh by 6 pointsNot everything was terrible for the Steelers in their game against Chicago last Sunday night. They were finally able to show some offense and after the half time, their defense started to play well. After a 3-24 deficit at halftime, the Steelers bounced back on the second half and were only down 20-27 at the start of the fourth quarter. Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball for 406 yards, but the Steelers' five turnovers screwed everything for them.
On the other side, Minnesota was surprised at home by the shorthanded Browns last Sunday. Cleveland took a lot of risks in that game, including a fake punt and a fake field goal. They tried everything to surprise Minnesota, as they knew they would struggle on a "conventional" tactic with Brian Hoyer under center. Hoyer actually started the game well, but then struggled most of the game, until he made a final nice drive to win his team the win. This was bottom line a terrible performance by Minnesota, who was completely surprised by Cleveland's tactics, but that's not an excuse for Christian Ponder to get sacked six times for example.
For today's game, I believe Pittsburgh will comfortably get the upperhand in here. The Steelers' showed decent defense in all their three losses, with a -9.00%, +9.70% and -11.1% DVOA: two games better than league average and one slightly worse than league average. They have been able to stop the opposing running backs so far and considering the non-existent Vikings' passing game, it's not that hard to limit Adrian Peterson right now. Christian Ponder won't play today and he will be replaced by Matt Cassel, who was a disaster last season at Kansas City and with no time to prepare for this start, I believe that he will struggle.
Pittsburgh's offense played much better last week than on the first two weeks of the league. Their running game is still struggling and their pass protection isn't great, but Minnesota's pass rush has been quite poor so far on this season, so I expect Big Ben to have a decent game today against a quite weak Vikings' pass defense. Therefore, I believe Pittsburgh will limit Minnesota's running game today and then, get a clear upperhand with their passing game. So, I'll be taking the Steelers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 199 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ +105 / 2.05 on Betonline
NFL Week 4 - 201 Baltimore Ravens @ 202 Buffalo Bills
Projected Line: Baltimore by 6 points
Baltimore's defense recovered well from the disaster at Denver back at week 1 and dominated in both week 2 and 3's games. Not only they dominated Cleveland's weak offense, as they also dominated Houston's decent offense, who was reduced to just three field goals the whole game! Having in account Buffalo's offensive problems, Baltimore's defense has a good matchup in here. Their RB CJ Spiller is banged up, their OL is struggling with 10 sacks allowed and so, I expect Baltimore's defense to dominate in here.
On the other hand, Ray Rice may sit out today's game as well, but I believe Joe Flacco should be able to expose Buffalo's issues on the secondary. The Bills' defense looked good at times against both New England and Carolina, but they struggled badly against the NY Jets last week. I won't say that Baltimore is going to have a massive offensive game today, but looking at their edge on defense against the Bills' offense, I believe that Baltimore will produce enough offense to get a comfortable win in here today. I'm taking the Ravens today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 201 Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 4 - 203 Cincinnati Bengals @ 204 Cleveland Browns
Projected Line: 38 points
Cleveland used a kamizake style against Minnesota last week, with a fake punt and a fake FG as well, but it worked and they won the game at the end. However, Brian Hoyer didn't impress me with 3 interceptions and now that the surprise effect is gone, I expect Cleveland to struggle against Cincinnati's great defense. The Bengals limited Aaron Rodgers to just 244 passing yards last week and sacked him four times. Cincinnati was so focused on Green Bay's passing game that they allowed the Packers to have a rare great running performance, however that's unlikely to happen this week, as Cleveland's depth at the RB position isn't good at all, especially now that Trent Richardson is at Indianapolis.
On the other hand, I also expect Cincinnati's offense to struggle in here. Their passing game is totally based into passing the ball to WR A.J. Green, but Cleveland has in CB Joe Haden a great opponent to stop Green from having a big game today. Cleveland has an overall good defensive unit, with a nice pass rush, decent run defense and good secondary, so I believe they will limit Cincinnati's one-dimensional offense today as well. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 203/204 Under 42.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 4 - 211 Chicago Bears @ 212 Detroit Lions
Projected Line: Detroit by 6 points
I believe both teams are quite overrated right now. Chicago is 3-0 because they faced struggling teams like Minnesota and Pittsburgh, while they were also down against Cincinnati and only won that game due to some turnovers on the second half. The Bears' defense has been amazing on run defense with -13.4%, -25.3% and -55.7% DVOA, but things have been quite different on pass defense with +7.0%, +6.1% and +5.3% DVOA! They lost DT Henry Melton for the season this week, while start CB Charles Tillman is currently hampered with knee and groin injuries. Detroit's offense will have Reggie Bush available, something that turns the Lions' offense into a much more complete unit. Detroit will lose some verticality on their passing game with Nate Burleson being out for today's game, so that should be compensated by Bush's comeback into the lineup.
On the other side, Chicago's OL has been better this season in comparison to last year's disaster, but Jay Cutler keeps being mistake prone whenever he takes some risks. I believe Detroit's passing game will expose Chicago's not so good coverage in here, while Chicago will struggle to produce big yardage today unless Cutler takes risks and he is unlikely to do that without making some costly mistakes as well. I expect Detroit to show once again that they are a tough matchup for Chicago and so, I'll be taking the Lions in here for a comfortable win.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 212 Detroit Lions (-3) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline
NFL Week 4 - 215 New York Jets @ 216 Tennessee TitansNFL Week 4 - 217 Dallas Cowboys @ 218 San Diego Chargers
***2-TEAM 6,5 POINTS TEASER***
On a matchup between two of the most penalized teams over these first three weeks of the league, I expect the Jets to be more competitive in here than the odds are currently showing. The Jets' defense has been phenomenal by being #1 on rushing defense and #4 in sacks with 12, with penalties being the only reason why they for example allowed 20 points to Buffalo last week. On offense, Geno Smith has been showing a lot of verticality on his game, while their running game has been competent, even though Chris Ivory is still out with a hamstring injury. Tennessee has been for now a run oriented team led by Chris Johnson. So, I expect the Titans' offense to heavily struggle against the Jets' excellent rushing defense! This will put Jake Locker in a lot of pressure and this won't be good for the Titans. I believe the Jets will make another excellent defensive job in here, while they should produce enough offense to make them fight for the win until down the stretch.
San Diego is coming from a close loss at Tennessee, where they couldn't score in their final three drives, even though they had played a good game prior to that. In fact, their +31.7% offense DVOA, +50.6% pass offense DVOA and +18.0% rush offense DVOA show exactly that. The Chargers aren't showing a lot of verticality on their passing game right now, with Danny Woodhead and Antonio Gates being their two main receivers, but the truth is that San Diego's offense is playing well right now and without committing errors. Their problem is on their defense, where they got crushed by Chris Johnson and in some big passing plays as well. On the other hand, Dallas is coming from an easy win over St Louis and their numbers are quite similar to San Diego's right now.I like this game to be a high scoring one. We are in front of two excellent pass offensive teams, with good OL's, but with unimpressive secondaries. Dallas's pass defense is #15 in the league right now, so I expect San Diego's passing game to torch them in here. On the other side, Dallas have DeMarcus Murray coming from a big game and even though he might have a letdown today, he will still require some extra attention on him today, something that will give space for Tony Romo to torch San Diego's pass defense that is currently ranked #29 in the league. If Tennessee was able to have a good passing game against them, then Dallas should be able to do that as well. So, I expect a high scoring game in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 215 New York Jets (+10) x 217/218 Over 40 @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes
NFL Week 4 - 221 Philadelphia Eagles @ 222 Denver Broncos
Projected Line: Denver by 7 points
Philadelphia is coming from a TNF game against Kansas City last week, so they had an extra rest spot for today. On the other hand, Denver is coming from a MNF game, so they had a short week to prepare this game. This will obviously give the Eagles a clear physical edge for today's game. Considering the way Philadelphia's offense plays, this can quickly become a huge edge for the Eagles in here and allow them to score a nice amount of points.
I'm not saying that Philadelphia will win this game, as Peyton Manning is unstoppable right now, but I believe the Eagles with a great physical edge in here can create enough offensive production in here, so that they leave this game with a respectful score. I expect exactly that to happen in here and so, looking at the current spread line, I'll be taking Philadelphia in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 221 Philadelphia Eagles (+11) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada
