Soccer World Cup Play 06/30: France vs. Nigeria

Soccer World Cup Play: France vs. Nigeria

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

France has been one of the best teams of the Tournament and this is no surprise for us: we've won a Top Play w/ them in their first game, and also cashed a future play w/ them winning their respective group:

“However, this is a new team and more importantly, they have a good coach in Didier Deschamps that simply doesn’t allow any sign of indiscipline. In a controversial decision, Deschamps left out Manchester City’s star Samir Nasri because he believes team spirit is key to winning. In the playoffs, France was almost humiliated @Ukraine by losing 0-2, but they bounced back in France and won 3-0 and secured the qualification. Nasri started in the first game and had a terrible performance, while he didn’t play in the second game at home, so the correlation is pretty clear for me.

I was about to send this play earlier and being a Triple Dime Play, but the injury and absence of Franck Ribery was indeed a major blow for them. Nevertheless, I still think that we have some value in them to win the group as my fair line in here is France having 60% of chances to be #1 in the group @ -150 odds.

I really love France’s midfield trio on the center of the field w/ Matuidi, Pogba and Cabaye. These three players can defend and attack with great quality, and they impose a great tempo to the game – something pivotal in today’s preferred style of play. Ribery is gone, but it looks like Benzema “connects” pretty well with Olivier Giroud on the front as both players are great passers despite being strikers.”

Their offensive flow has been a joy to watch - probably the best team in the whole Tournament! In the last game against Ecuador, even though they rested some players and didn’t put 100% full effort on the game, they created a ton of good chances to score but their finishing ability in that particular day was subpar.

This Nigerian team is considered to be a good defensive team, but despite playing w/ a packed defensive line, they are allowing their opponents way too many chances.

I’ve noticed that prior to their game vs. Argentina in which I’ve released a play w/ OVER:

“Despite playing w/ a conservative mindset, I can’t ignore the fact that Bosnia had an absurd number of scoring chances but ultimately, they failed to capitalize. Note also that one legal goal was disallowed to them, so Nigeria was really “lucky” in not allowing at least one goal. I just can’t imagine being so “lucky” today against Argentina’s forwards.”

Well, Argentina scored 3 goals against them… I don’t think that Nigeria will keep the French dynamic attack in check!

On the other side, Nigeria’s forward Ahmed Musa is coming from a great individual performance against Argentina while facing the slow-footed RB Pablo Zabaleta. I expect the French defense to be ready to deal w/ his speed as RB Debuchy’s superior speed when compared to Zabaleta’s is going to help France in this individual matchup.

I expect France to win this contest by at least 2 goals of difference!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on France (-1) @ -145 / 1.69 on Bookmaker

ADDED PLAY:

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Parlay France ML x Germany ML @ -117 / 1.85 on Pinnacle Sports ( OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/29: Greece vs. Costa Rica

Soccer World Cup Play: Greece vs. Costa Rica

Costa Rica is hands down the biggest surprise of this World Cup! As weird it might sound, after facing Uruguay, Italy and England, this contest against Greece is going to be their toughest challenge so far matchup-wise.

Costa Rica showed an exceptional defensive organization while the forward Campbell did a great job as their lone target on the front w/ some great forward runs. In all the 3 group stage games, Costa Rica played w/ a conservative mindset… they were pretty comfortable in playing without the ball, gave the ball possession to the opponents and hit them in quick counter moves.

The problem for today is that the Greeks have a similar approach to the game! Costa Rica will feel the pressure to be the “favorites” unlike the first 3 games, where they were heavy underdogs!

I expect this contest to be tight one w/ few opportunities to score. No wonder the Totals Line of this game is just 2 Goals! Having said that, I grade this contest as a pure 50/50 game and so, we have some value w/ Greece at current odds.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Greece (PK) @ +110 / 2.10 Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/29: Netherlands vs. Mexico

Soccer World Cup Play: Netherlands vs. Mexico

I think that the Dutch team is clearly overrated for this contest and we are getting some value w/ Mexico at this current price.

Arjen Robben has been one of the best players of the tournament so far, and the return of Robbie Van Persie will make them a super dangerous team on the break.

However, I think that their defensive line is “suspicious” to say the least and their midfield unit will be outplayed by the Mexican most physical unit.

I’ve faded them vs. Chile in the last game of the group stages w/ no success:

“I expect the Dutch defense to have some huge problems vs. Chile’s quick and mobile forwards. In this tournament, Netherlands is using a very high positioned defensive line… both Spain and Australia created problems by passing the ball on their backs and this won’t be much different for today. The “difference” is that Chile’s forwards are more equipped and dangerous giving such wide space to them vs. Spanish & Australian forwards.”

Well, the Dutch did the exact opposite in that game! They were ultra conservative, gave the “ball possession” to the Chileans and tried to do some damage in quick counter-attack moves – it worked perfectly for them!

I’ve just checked their starting lineup for today and it looks like they will use a more offensive 4-3-3 formation w/ the inclusion of Dirk Kuijt in the starting XI, so I expect them to be more proactive.

On the other side, I really liked the way they have played in this World Cup – they have exceeded my best expectations! The key for such good “dynamic” has been their midfield unit of Herrera, Salcido and Guardado – they are playing w/ great tempo and are dominating the games strength-wise.

I expect Mexico to be more ready for this contest physically and this will show up especially late in the game.

W/ this more offensive approach from the Dutch on the paper judging their starting XI, I also expect this contest to have some goals as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Mexico (+0.5) @ -125 / 1.80 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.25 Goals @ -101 / 1.99 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -113 / 1.88 Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/28: Colombia vs. Uruguay

Soccer World Cup Play: Colombia vs. Uruguay

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

I was about to make a play w/ Colombia regardless the soap opera around Luis Suarez, but now that it is confirmed that Luis Suarez won’t play in here, I’ve just pulled the trigger and turn this play into a Triple Dime Play!

I had a play w/ Under in the last game of Uruguay against Italy, here are some notes about them:

“About Uruguay, I faded them in the last game vs. England with no success:

“Uruguay doesn’t have much talent on their midfield unit – their players have a phenomenal work-rate and work well defensively, but are limited offensively which puts some tremendous pressure on their frontline to generate offense. The problem is that Forlan has declined heavily in the last few years and more importantly, Luis Suarez isn’t @ 100%. His availability is still uncertain for this contest.”

Well, I was dead wrong about Luis Suarez! No shame about it! However, I expect Uruguay to struggle offensively vs. a packed Italian defensive line. They had tremendous problems to generate good chances vs. a defensive minded Costa Rica in the first game, and this packed Italian defensive line will expose (once again) the Uruguayans lack of creativity in the midfield.”

Once again (and even w/ Suarez), Uruguay had some huge problems to generate build-up plays against the Italian defense. Their lack of creativity on the midfield was well noticed and they really needed Suarez to make some “magic moves” for them because collectively, they just can’t do it. Note that their goal vs. Italy came from a set piece play.

However, not everything is bad about them! Their fighting spirit and defensive cohesion is tremendous, and primarily, this is why they are playing in here in the place of England and Italy.

The bad news for them is that unlike Italy and England, Colombia attacking fluidity is astonishing! Their playmaker James Rodriguez has been one of the best players of this tournament and their attacking midfield unit (Rodriguez, Cuadrado and Ibarbo) are playing quite well w/ great tempo and some beautiful passing plays between them. The difference of “dynamic” between this unit and the Uruguayans midfield unit is just huge!  As brave as the Uruguayan defensive line has been in the last 2 games, we are talking about another different level w/ the Colombian attack…

While I expect Colombia defense to do a reasonable job vs. Uruguay shorthanded forwards, I really don’t think Uruguay can hold the Colombians superior offensive skill set and therefore, I’m taking Colombia in here as my Triple Dime Play

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on Colombia ML @ +102 / 2.02 on Pinnacle Sports @ (OR +101 / 2.01 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/28: Brazil vs. Chile

Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Chile

Probably, this contest will be the most exciting game to watch of this Round of 16, as we’ll have two teams w/ attacking mindset facing each other.

The Chile’s attacking and fluid football has been a nice story so far in this World Cup. Here are some quick notes I’ve made about them through the tournament:

Against Australia:

“I have no doubt that Chile will be one of the most exciting teams to watch in this Tournament! They play a beautiful attacking football and they will press high on the pitch regardless the level of their opponent. Obviously, being such an offensive minded team, it has some painful costs on the defensive end, but this Australian team doesn’t have the talent to take advantage of that.”

Against Spain:

Why I’m not taking Chile then? Well, I’ve won my first Triple Dime Play of the tournament w/ them against Australia but I really didn’t like the way they defended in the second half. Too much immaturity and some bad positioning… it was enough to defeat an inferior level team, but against top notch competition, this could be a huge problem for them.

My strongest lean in here is Both Teams to score…. Spain just can’t be happy to simply control the game and manage to score one goal and protect the lead, they have to be more proactive, taking more risks and naturally, I expect them to be exposed against the quick – fast paced Chilean forwards especially by Alexis Sanchez.

Against Netherlands:

“I expect the Dutch defense to have some huge problems vs. Chile’s quick and mobile forwards. In this tournament, Netherlands is using a very high positioned defensive line… both Spain and Australia created problems by passing the ball on their backs and this won’t be much different for today. The “difference” is that Chile’s forwards are more equipped and dangerous giving such wide space to them vs. Spanish & Australian forwards.”

As good as their attack could be, their defense is “suspicious” to say the least! They have some problems in control the tempo of the game – they tend to push forward every single offensive play and honestly, their biggest problem relies on the defensive side, especially on the wings. In the last game, the Dutch winger Arjen Robben single handedly destroyed them w/ his forward runs and it’s not difficult to imagine that Neymar will do the same in here.

Brazil is yet to establish themselves as the #1 favorite team to win it all in the field, but their pace on the front, and especially when they are counter attacking will be too much for this Chilean defensive line who tends to play high on the field.

Note that I don’t’ think that Brazil won’t suffer today… their defensive line has committed several individual errors so far in the tournament, and the Chilean forwards’ will make some damage coming off the wings w/ Alexis Sanchez and Vargas.

I expect Brazil to win this contest in a high scoring affair!

Note: for those you can't get this Brazil (-0.75) line, my suggestion is to split Brazil ML + Brazil (-1).

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil (-0.75) @ -134 / 1.74 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -145 / 1.69 on Betonline)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.5 Goals @ -123 / 1.81 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -124 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes)

World Cup Daily Message 06/28

Yesterday's Recap Plays:

Under 2.75 Goals Germany vs USA WIN

Belgium ML WIN

Algeria (+0.5) WIN

Daily Message: 

We finished the group stage of the World Cup w/ a nice 3-0 ATS Sweep this past Thursday. For the tournament, we are hitting 59% ATS in our plays (26-18 ATS) and 69% ATS in our Top Plays (9-4 ATS) so we are in good position to attack the knockout stage!

World Cup Record Spreedsheet (click here)

We are now entering the truly most exciting stage of the World Cup - Knockout stage! For this Round of 16, note that we'll have 2 games per day (12PM EST & 4PM EST!).

Saturday work:

12PM EST - Brazil vs. Chile
4PM EST - Colombia vs. Uruguay

I've just finished my work for this card and I'm releasing 3 plays: Two Free Premium Play & one Premium Triple Dime Play! 

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/26: Belgium vs. Korea Republic

Soccer World Cup Play: Belgium vs. Korea Republic

Despite winning the first two games, Belgium is yet to make an exciting performance. Both their wins were close ones w/ the decisive goal being scored late in the games.

I think that this will change today against Korea… Note that they will make some changes in their lineup but they have good depth on the roster.

The biggest difference regarding today’s game and the first 2 contests is that unlike Algeria and Russia, who played ALL-IN defense mode, Korea will bring a proactive mindset to the field. They have a tiny chance to qualify for the next round but they would have to win and score some goals… this attacking mindset will work favorably for the Belgians as they finally will have some space to operate their attacking football.

Korea plays w/ good tempo, a nice fighting spirit but they are extremely vulnerable on the back and their attack lacks efficiency. At this price = Belgium to win the game!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Belgium ML @ -114 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/26: Russia vs. Algeria

Soccer World Cup Play: Russia vs. Algeria

Some notes about this Russian team:

“Russia is coached by coaching legend Fabio Capello who is a tactician master… His teams are always well organized especially on the defensive end, and this Russian team is no exception! In their qualification group, Russian has allowed only 5 goals in 10 games!

Usually, Russia has some problems on attack as they don’t have many offensive skillful players. Bad news happened just before the World Cup w/ their best player Roman Shirokov who is out of the competition due to injury! His absence is tremendous for this team, not only because he really is their best player (playmaker), but also because Capello doesn’t have a capable backup player to replace Shirokov.”

Their attacking problems were well noticed: just one goal scored in the first 2 games!

Once again, I expect them to struggle offensively against this well organized Algeria team. Yes, apparently it is possible for an African team to be cohesive and well organized! Unlike Russia, Algeria has some offensive power on the front and ultimately, this could be the difference maker.

I think that we are getting here the Russian team a bit overrated (almost like all European teams) and therefore, I’m taking Algeria +0.5 today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Algeria (+0.5) @ -112 / 1.89 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -117 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/26: Germany vs. USA

Soccer World Cup Play: Germany vs. USA

***EARLY GAME***

There are a lot of conspiracy theories about this contest favoring a draw between these two teams = both would qualify for the next round.

In normal conditions, at this price, I would blindly make a play w/ Germany to win but because of this, I’ve decided to pass sides…

However, I think that this contest has all conditions to be a low scoring affair!

I expect this contest to be played @low tempo! We can expect the USA team to bring a conservative mindset for today facing the superior talented German side, but I also think that the Germans will be happy to keep the tempo low – they’ll save some energy for the knockout stages.

NOTE: I’ve checked the weather for this contest and it’s raining! The field won’t be good for a fluid wide-open game,  so I’m happy to take my chances w/ UNDER in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2.75 Goals @ -123 / 1.81 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -135 / 1.74 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/25: France vs. Ucuador

Soccer World Cup Play: France vs. Ucuador

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on France (-0.75) @ -125 / 1.80 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -140 / 1.71 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/25: Switzerland vs. Honduras

Soccer World Cup Play: Switzerland vs. Honduras

****DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Seriously, Switzerland is listed @-200's to win this contest?!?

The Swiss team is the favorite to grab #2 spot in this group, but they had a great dose of luck when they defeated Ecuador in the last minute of the game, then, they were crushed by the French team.

I always expected Switzerland to struggle offensively…  My notes about them in the last game vs. France:

“It’s quite easy to read this Suisse team: they are super compact, well organized defensively and play mostly w/ a conservative mindset. Their first game vs. Ecuador ended up w/ 3 goals, but note that the first two goals came from set pieces plays while the last one was actually the last play of the game in a quick counter move from them – they didn’t create many chances from build-up plays. I expect them to be conservative in here… they’ll accept the natural favoritism of the French side and will be fine with that.”

They scored 2 late goals (garbage time) against France but their attack (once again) didn’t impress me at all… the biggest news for me was the performance of their defense: it was a DISASTER!

They couldn’t stop the French side attack from creating dangerous build-up plays and the exact same thing happened vs. Ecuador in the first game! Honduras has some speed from the wings so I expect them to do some damage in here.

If France is winning their game vs. Ecuador, there is no need for Switzerland to defeat Honduras – a draw is enough!

Finally, this contest will be played in the “jungle” (Manaus)! Physical edge goes unquestionably for Honduras vs. European team!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Honduras (+1.25) @ OR -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

Soccer World Cup Play 06/25: Bosnia Herzegovina vs. Iran

Soccer World Cup Play: Bosnia Herzegovina vs. Iran

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Bosnia Herzegovina (-0.25) @ -106 / 1.94 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup 06/25: Argentina vs. Nigeria

Soccer World Cup Play: Argentina vs. Nigeria

Argentina was saved by a late wonder goal from Lionel Messi against Iran. I had them -2 in that game = LOSER.

Some notes I’ve made in that play:

“I expect Iran to completely be focused in defending in here… they will “park the bus”, but by playing so close of their GK… they will be prone to commit individual defensive errors, something normal when you are facing such skillful players like Messi, Aguero or Di Maria.  “

Iran indeed put all their men in front of the line and Argentina struggled big time to create scoring chances. I really don’t know why Argentina’ NT coach keeps playing Mascherano and Gago at the same time in the midfield… both players are slow footed and don’t offer much verticality and creativity to the team. It looks like we are dealing with two broken units: their defensive line + these two players and then, 4 isolated players on the front (Di Maria, Messi, Aguero and Higuain! It appears that coach Sabella will make some changes for today…I’m looking forward to see if Mascherano and Gago will be on the starting lineup…

Nigeria is in a good spot to achieve the qualification w/ 4 points after defeating Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-0 in the last game – a game where I had plays Under 2.5 + Nigeria (+0.5), both winners plays.

Despite playing w/ a conservative mindset, I can’t ignore the fact that Bosnia had an absurd number of scoring chances but ultimately, they failed to capitalize. Note also that one legal goal was disallowed to them, so Nigeria was really “lucky” in not allowing at least one goal. I just can’t imagine being so “lucky” today against Argentina’s forwards.

On the other side, Argentina defensive line didn’t impress me at all. Actually, Iran had some great chances to score @ 2nd half in counter attack moves! Nigeria is build to play in counter attack using the amazing speed and pace of their forwards so, I expect Nigeria to do some damage as well.

My Strongest lean for this contest: OVER 2.5/2.75 Goals

UPDATE:

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.5 Goals @ -130 / 1.77 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -134 / 1.74 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 06/25

Yesterday's Recap Plays:

 

Under 2.5 Goals Italy vs Uruguay WIN

England ML Triple Dime LOSS

Over 2.5 Goals Colombia vs Japan WIN

Ivory Coast ML Double Dime LOSS

 

Daily Message 06/25: 

Yesterday was a strange day in which we easily cashed our Single Dime Plays (both total plays) but we struggled in our Top Plays as we’ve lost w/ England and Ivory Coast.

We are now entering the final stage of the first round so from now on, we'll have always 2 games played @ same time in the group stage (12PM EST & 4PM EST!)

For this Wednesday, I must confess that I don’t like this card at first sight… I need first to confirm the starting lineups before making a final decision.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Soccer World Cup Play 06/24: Greece vs. Ivory Coast

Soccer World Cup Play: Greece vs. Ivory Coast

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

There are some factors favoring the African team in this contest and @ this price = TOP PLAY!

Greece is “forced” to win in order to advanced for the next round! They simply can’t play in an “all-in defense mode” for 90 minutes because it won’t be enough for them! Obviously, I expect them to be proactive today while looking to score in build-up plays… this will work against them on the defensive end, because they will allow some space on the back, and Ivory Coast has some incredibly speed on the front.

I also think that Ivory Coast has a considerable physical edge over Greece. Note that we are dealing w/ an African team vs. European and this factor alone could be enough to validate my point of view, but we can’t ignore the fact that Greece played w/ 10 men almost one hour vs. Japan in game played in Natal (high humidity!). This will catch them late in the game…

More importantly, Ivory Coast is simply the better team! Side note: A "tragic accident" to the brother of the Toure’s brothers has been a factor in the last days...

“IVORY COAST coach Sabri Lamouchi has thanked Toure brothers Yaya and Kolo for their courage amid tragedy at the World Cup.

The Toure’s have vowed to play on in Brazil following the death of their 28-year-old brother Ibrahim last week.

It means both players will be available for the Elephants' decisive final Group C game against Greece, when the Africans will attempt to secure a last-16 place.

Lamouchi said: "It's tough to talk about football when you get news like that. It seems inappropriate somehow.

"What Yaya and Kolo have been through is a real tragedy. We're here for them and their entire family.

"They had a crucial and difficult decision to make and they decided to stay.”

This could boost the “team spirit” for this contest + their superior technical ability + physical edge makes the Ivory Coast a team w/ great value in here = Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Ivory Coast ML @ -101 / 1.99 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -102 / 1.98 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/24: Colombia vs. Japan

Soccer World Cup Play: Colombia vs. Japan

This is going to be a fun game to watch with both teams moving forward with the ball…

Colombia has already clinched the qualification after winning the first two games vs. Greece and Ivory Coast. It is certain that their NT coach will make some changes for today in order to rest some players and/or prevent some of them to receive a potential 2nd yellow card in the competition and be suspended for the next game.

The good news for them is that their “backups” players are extremely talented especially on the front w/ Quintero, Jackson Martinez and Ramos and so, there won’t be a major drop off of quality between the usual starters and their 2nd line of players.

On the other end, I expect Japan to be (as usual) proactive w/ a good offensive mindset. They are coming from a 0-0 draw vs. Greece in which they had tremendous problems to create chances to score against a packed Greek defensive line.

I had a play w/ Under that was an easy winner:

“There is nothing new about the Greeks – they will defend, they will concede ball possession to their opponents and try to score some goals in counter moves and especially in set pieces. This formula makes them painful to watch, but they are really competitive in that way.

They suffered an early goal to Colombia and that ruined the Greeks traditional game plan… For today, I expect them to be once again conservative, give the ball possession to Japan and try to explore their size edge in set pieces.

Unlike Colombia, Japan doesn’t have the proper width on the wings to create mismatches on the Greeks’ defense and so, I expect Japan to have some problems in creating build-up plays.”

Once Katsouranis was sent off @38th minute, the Greek side basically decided to defend all game w/ 10 men and the Japanese side didn’t find any space on the front.

This will change in here against the free-floating Colombian team = OVER PLAY!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.5 Goals @ -128 / 1.78 on Betonline

Soccer World Cup Play 06/24: England vs. Costa Rica

Soccer World Cup Play: England vs. Costa Rica

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

***EARLY GAME***

We are now 9-1 ATS in our Top Plays so far in the tournament with our only loss being w/ England (vs. Uruguay), so we are “due” to receive a good performance from them.

Note that despite losing both contests against Italy and Uruguay, England didn’t play that bad. After trailing in both games, they bounced back and tied the game. Then they had some great chances to score before allowing the decisive goal to their opponents.

This contest is somehow similar to the yesterday’s game between Spain and Australia…

“England manager Roy Hodgson will make nine changes for his side's final 2014 FIFA World Cup™ game against Costa Rica in Belo Horizonte on Tuesday, he said. Defender Gary Cahill and striker Daniel Sturridge will be the only survivors from Thursday's 2-1 loss to Uruguay in Sao Paulo, which sealed England's elimination in the group phase.

Ben Foster will play in goal, with Phil Jones, Cahill, Chris Smalling, and teenager Luke Shaw in defence, Hodgson told a press conference at the Estadio Mineirao. The midfield will be made up of James Milner, Frank Lampard, Jack Wilshere, Ross Barkley and Adam Lallana, with Sturridge up front, he added.”

This injection of “young blood” to the team will work favorably for them in here. These young guys (except Frank Lampard) want to make a point that they are the “future” of the National team and obviously, despite being eliminated, I expect England to be focused and aggressive.

On the other side, Costa Rica is hands down the biggest surprise of this World Cup! They are already qualified and it looks like immediately after defeating Italy, their players went to “party mode” all night long - a bad sign for them today.

They are extremely well organized defensively and their work-rate was exceptional in the first two games. However,I have some doubt that they will bring their “A” game for today or will be 100% focused in executing their traditional conservative game plan.

Their objective right now could be achieving the first place of the group but it looks like they are more comfortably being #2 in the group and facing Colombia in the next round: 

“While it is always considered advantageous to win your group, Costa Rica full-back Christian Gamboa said his side wouldn't see it as a disadvantage to come second as they would likely face Colombia in the Round of 16.

"If we get Colombia, the professor (Pinto) knows them really well, he knows everything about his country and so we could have something of an advantage," said Gamboa.”

This is far from being the proper mindset for them in here and as weird it might sound, I expect England to actually have more motivation to win this contest than Costa Rica and therefore, I’m taking them as my Triple Dime Play.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on England ML @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/24: Italy vs. Uruguay

Soccer World Cup Play: Italy vs. Uruguay

***EARLY GAME***

With Costa Rica already qualified, these two teams will fight for one spot in this contest.

Note that Italy has a better goal difference ratio, so if the game ends up tied, Italy will advance for the next round. Bottom line: Uruguay has to win in order to advanced while a draw is enough for the Italians.

This is a perfect set up for a potential low scoring game…

I expect Italy to be smart and play w/ a conservative mind set… after noticing their starting lineup, most likely they will use a 3-5-2 formation that basically is a 5-3-2 formation without the ball.

About Uruguay, I faded them in the last game vs. England with no success:

“Uruguay doesn’t have much talent on their midfield unit – their players have a phenomenal work-rate and work well defensively, but are limited offensively which puts some tremendous pressure on their frontline to generate offense. The problem is that Forlan has declined heavily in the last few years and more importantly, Luis Suarez isn’t @ 100%. His availability is still uncertain for this contest.”

Well, I was dead wrong about Luis Suarez! No shame about it! However, I expect Uruguay to struggle offensively vs. a packed Italian defensive line. They had tremendous problems to generate good chances vs. a defensive minded Costa Rica in the first game, and this packed Italian defensive line will expose (once again) the Uruguayans lack of creativity in the midfield.

Italy will put Balotelli and Immobile on the front, but their offense has been erratic in this World Cup. They don’t have much width on the wings especially because their wing-backs are defensive minded and so, I also expect them to struggle offensively.

We should have been dealing w/ a 2.25 Goals line and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2.5 Goals @ -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle Sports  (OR -105 / 1.95 on Betonline)

Daily Message 06/24

Yesterday's Recap Plays:

Spain (-1.25) WIN

Chile (PK) LOSS

Brazil (-2.25) Double Dime WIN

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a nice 2-1 ATS day in our plays. We split 1-1 in the early games but Brazil delivered our Top Play of the day - Double Dime Play, so it was a good profitable card. This winner play put us 9-1 ATS in Top Plays so far in the tournament!

We are now entering the final stage of the first round so from now on, we'll have always 2 games played @ same time in the group stage (12PM EST & 4PM EST!)

For this Tuesday, I've already released a Top Play Triple Dime Play! Note that the game starts @12PM EST! ***EARLY GAME*** We might have more plays for today but this particular play, I just couldn't wait more time and decided to pull the trigger.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

Soccer World Cup Premium Play 06/23: Brazil vs. Cameroon

Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Cameroon

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

I understand that we are taking a huge line as we need Brazil to win at least by 3 goals, but this contest will be a major mismatch in every possible angle.

Brazil is coming from a somewhat disappointing game against the solid Mexican side, the Brazilians supporters are demanding a bounce back game, so I expect them to be focused and aggressive since the start. Their NT coach went defensive in the first half by putting Ramires in the first half and the outcome was disastrous because Brazil lacked men of front to be dangerous. I also expect Scolari to have a more “offensive mindset” for here.

I had a top play w/ Croatia against Cameroon in the last game that worked fine w/ Croatia trashing the Africans 4-0… there are some major consequences of that game for today:

1)      One of their best players Alex Song is OUT for today after being sent off in that game;

2)      Cameroon played almost 50 minutes w/ 10 men… this doesn’t sound that dramatic but remember that the game was played in Manaus – Amazonia! Yesterday’s game between USA and Portugal was also played in Manaus and we could noticed how fatigued both players were late in the game; Also, we must note that Brazil had one more day to rest as they played in the previous day – PHYSICAL EDGE goes to Brazil;

3)      Cameroon already checked out mentally for this tournament… in that game, there was a bizarre scene w/ two players from Cameroon fighting each other (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzvS73k_eRM)

Some notes about Cameroon in my play against them (Croatia):

“On the other side, Cameroon looked terrible in their first game vs. Mexico. The "close" final score of 0-1 loss doesn't tell the whole story, as they were completely outplayed by Mexico! They could easily have lost the game by 2 or 3 goals of difference. Note that Mexico saw two “legal” goals being disallowed by the referee crew…

What really stick to me was how bad their defensive positioning was in that game… they played like they didn’t knew nothing about the way Mexico plays, strange considering how advanced scouting is in modern football. They were vulnerable especially on the wings and this will hurt them once again...”

Matchup wise… I expect both Brazil wing-backs to explore Cameroon’s awful side defense. Mexico and Croatia created an absurd number of chances to score from the wings and it won’t be different w/ Daniel Alves & Marcelo charging forward.

I expect Brazil to win quite easily in here by 3 goals of difference and therefore, I’m taking them as my Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Brazil (-2.25) @ -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/23: Chile vs. Netherlands

Soccer World Cup Play: Chile vs. Netherlands

***EARLY GAME***

Oddsmakers are calling this contest a 50/50 contest, but I grade Chile a bit better than the Dutch and obviously, in my point of view, we are getting some value w/ the South American team.

Note that if the game ends up tied, Netherlands would be #1 in the group due to a better goal difference ratio, and would send Chile most likely to play vs. Brazil in the knockout stages – a scenario that Chile certainly wants to avoid.

I expect the Dutch defense to have some huge problems vs. Chile’s quick and mobile forwards. In this tournament, Netherlands is using a very high positioned defensive line… both Spain and Australia created problems by passing the ball on their backs and this won’t be much different for today. The “difference” is that Chile’s forwards are more equipped and dangerous giving such wide space to them vs. Spanish & Australian forwards.

Also note that one of the Dutch top players Van Persie will miss this contest and his absence isn’t a minor detail because they don’t have many “quality” depth on their roster.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Chile (PK) @ -103 / 1.97 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -107 / 1.93 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/23: Spain vs. Australia

Soccer World Cup Play: Spain vs. Australia

***EARLY GAME***

Spain is hands down the biggest disappointment of this tournament and the “common sense” is telling me to stay away of this game…after all, their attitude was horrible in the first 2 games and even in the practice there was some problems w/ Fabregas and NT Spanish coach.

However, I’ve just noticed their starting lineup for today and actually, IMO this would be their strongest team on the field in the tournament!

Spanish starting XI: Reina; Juanfran, Ramos, Albiol, Jordi Alba; Cazorla, Xabi Alonso, Koke; David Villa, Torres, Iniesta.

The biggest problem for Spain (besides the awful display from Iker Casillas) relied on their midfield unit: Busquets, Xabi Alonso and Xavi are all “ball possession” players that couldn’t do much more… They lack the proper pace and verticality and obviously, the Spanish midfield unit played always too “narrow”.

Spanish NT coach should have played Koke since the start of the tournament that is coming from a monster season in Atletico Madrid and is way more dynamic than any of those 3 players mentioned before. Also, Santi Cazorla is starting as well and I really expect Spain to improve their attacking dynamic from the sunset.

The Australian team has been exciting to watch w/ their fighting spirit and proactive style, but their defense has been really poor. Their best player Tim Cahill is suspended and will miss this contest and he really is the difference maker of this team. Finally, Australia is starting 9 of their 11 players today that played vs. Netherlands so, I also think that Spain will have a physical edge in here as most of their starters today didn’t play much in the first 2 games.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Spain (-1.25) @ -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Play 06/22: Portugal vs. USA

Soccer World Cup Play: Portugal vs. USA

I have a small lean w/ the Portuguese team in this contest, but there is no way we are getting value @ currents odds, so I’m passing sides.

I expect this contest to be a tight contest with few opportunities to score.

USA will come for this contest with a natural conservative mindset… they defeated Ghana in the first game, and a potential draw in here would put them in a fantastic position for the qualification.

They will be focused in shutting down the Portuguese winger players Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani.  Note that this is usually what teams do against Portugal, but this time around it could be successful because without Fabio Coentrao (he got injured and is OUT for the tournament) moving forward from the left side, Portugal doesn’t have much width on their game. Also, the Portuguese midfield unit is struggling a bit in terms of moving forward and supply help to forwards, so we are dealing w/ a Portuguese team potentially struggling vs. a packed USA defensive line.

On my write up of Portugal’s first game vs. Germany:

“For those who follow these major tournaments, particularly the last EURO2012, I can say that you will watch basically the same Portuguese team on the field: they are extremely well organized, their tactical discipline and work-rate is outstanding – one of the best in the world and this fact alone, makes them a very tough team to beat! Their losses at this level have been all by one goal max and even @ penalty shootout vs. Spain in EURO2012. The problem for Portugal relies on the front… they don’t have many depth and versatility on the front, their strikers are more focused in working for the team and don't have the proper scoring abilities but, fortunately for them, they have Cristiano Ronaldo – the world’s best player and really an incredible goal scoring machine!”

Yes, they got smashed 0-4 by the Germans and looked lost on the field, but it was a strange game: Germany scored an early goal, Pepe was sent off, and the game basically ended right there. Portugal’s defense is well organized and w/ USA’s Altidore being OUT in here and Dempsey banged up, I expect Portugal to do a good job on the defensive end vs. USA team that won’t put many men on the front in their build-up plays.

I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2.75 Goals @ -122 / 1.82 on Pinnacle Sports  (OR -140 / 1.71 on Betonline)

World Cup 06/22 Daily Message

Yesterday's Recap Plays:

Argentina (-2) LOSS

Both Teams to Score Germany vs Ghana Double Dime WIN

Nigeria (+0.5) WIN

Under 2.5 Goals Nigeria vs Bosnia Herzegovina WIN

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a great day yesterday in which we went 3-1 ATS, including hitting our Top Play of the day (Both Teams to Score in the game between Germany and Ghana). We are now 8-1 ATS in Top Plays so far in the tournament.

Argentina once again failed to impress in this World Cup. It’s a good thing that they had Lionel Messi playing for them, but their tactical organization has been subpar w/ their midfield unit looking incredibly slow in moving the ball. Germany and Ghana put on a show on the second half while in the last game of the day, Bosnia showed us why I considered them vastly overrated for that game.

Going on for today, we have 3 games to work…

I’ve already released 2 plays: early Free Premium Play for the first match (Russia vs. Belgium) and a Premium Play for the last (and best game of the day) – USA vs. Portugal. Most likely, I won’t release more plays for today but still, I want to work on some details before making a final decision.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/22: Belgium vs. Russia

Soccer World Cup Play: Belgium vs. Russia

***EARLY GAME***

I’ve made a small recap article about Belgium’s offensive struggles vs. Algeria in their first game:

“In the first game of the day, Belgium had some tremendous problems to defeat Algeria. I’ve mentioned on Twitter: “By playing w/ 4 pure Full-backs, Belgium doesn't have width on the wings, way too narrow = easier to defend”. This was in full display yesterday against a defensive minded Algeria team. They are considered to be one of the dark horses to win the competition, but their positioning on the field was subpar and against real top quality teams they will be prone to be exposed.”

For this contest, they will start the same back-four line and so, we can expect them to have similar problems vs. this Russian team. Russia will bring their usual conservative mindset under Italian coach Fabio Capello especially vs. top ranked teams.

Some personal notes about them:

“Russia is coached by coaching legend Fabio Capello who is a tactician master… His teams are always well organized especially on the defensive end, and this Russian team is no exception! In their qualification group, Russian has allowed only 5 goals in 10 games!

Usually, Russia has some problems on attack as they don’t have many offensive skillful players. Bad news happened just before the World Cup w/ their best player Roman Shirokov who is out of the competition due to injury! His absence is tremendous for this team, not only because he really is their best player (playmaker), but also because Capello doesn’t have a capable backup player to replace Shirokov.”

Belgium will control the ball possession but they won’t find much gaps and holes on the Russian defense especially with so little depth on the wings. Russia will try to score in counter moves and in set pieces… the problem is that their attack without Shirokov is predictable.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this contest ended up w/ a boring 0-0 draw.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2.25 Goals @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports  (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/21: Nigeria vs. Bosnia Herzegovina

Soccer World Cup Play: Nigeria vs. Bosnia Herzegovina

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

I had a play w/ Under in Nigeria’s first game in the tournament…

“On the other side we can expect Nigeria to have a considerable expected physical edge over Iran. Nigeria has some great speed on the front with their forwards, but all of them are more suitable to play in quick, counter attack style where they have some space to make forward runs – something that Iran won’t allow such space.

The biggest Nigerian problem is in the midfield… indeed, they have some pace and are aggressive, but they don’t simply have much offensive talent… When their most skilled player is Obi Mikel who plays @ defensive midfielder for England’s Chelsea, then we know that they will struggle to create chances to score goals in open-plays.”

The game ended tied 0-0 w/ Nigeria having tremendous problems to create chances against the packed Iranian defense. Obviously, I don’t expect Bosnia to use such extreme defensive style, but they are solid defensively and so, Nigeria will have some problems generate build-up offensive plays.

Bosnia looked impressive (especially in the first half) in their first game vs. Argentina but honestly, it was more about Argentina’s awful 3-5-2 tactical display than Bosnia looking really good.

I expect this contest to be a tight battle w/ few chances for both teams to score. Bosnia is getting so much love after their good performance vs. Argentina while Nigeria struggled against Iran. However, as we’ve noticed early on today, it’s not easy to play “well” against the ultra defensive tactic used by Iran.

Split the wager 50/50:

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Under 2.5 Goals @ +104 / 2.04 on Pinnacle Sports  (OR +100 / 2.00 on Betonline)

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Nigeria (+0.5) @ +102 / 2.02 on Bookmaker

Soccer World Cup Play 06/21: Germany vs. Ghana

Soccer World Cup Play: Germany vs. Ghana

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

I expect Ghana to be a tough matchup for the Germans today, but this AH -1.5 line looks fair to me.

Germany showed some nice fluid offensive football in their first game against vs. Portugal by playing without a “pure” striker. Their interchangeable forwards moved well with and without the ball, and I don’t think that Ghana’s defense can hold this potent German attack. Like almost every African team, Ghana is prone to commit individual defensive errors and “suffers” mental lapses quite often during games.

Ghana had a tough task vs. USA when they suffered the first goal so early on the game. They are more comfortable in playing w/ a counter-attack mindset as their speed on the front is truly amazing. However, by scoring so early the first goal, USA laid back and defended the lead so Ghana didn’t have the “proper” space to execute their preferred style of playing…

They will get such space today vs. Germany as the Germans will want to attack and have the ball possession which will left them a bit exposed in counter moves from Ghana’s winger players.

Both teams have the tools to score at least one goal and I’m taking this type of play as my Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Both Teams to Score @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/21: Argentina vs. Iran

Soccer World Cup Play: Argentina vs. Iran

We have a huge mismatch in this contest…

Despite playing against a team like Nigeria (far from being an elite team), Iran simply put 9/10 men packed in front of their GK trying to hold a 0-0 draw. They were successful w/ their game plan but this won’t work in here because unlike Nigeria's strikers, Argentina’s forwards are "world class", and they will find and create holes in Iran’s tight defense.

Argentina didn’t impress in the first game vs. Bosnia Herzegovina especially in the first half in which their NT coach for some reason played a 3-5-2 formation. Obviously, Bosnia came for that game w/ a defensive mindset and Argentina had way too many defensive-minded players on the field. Eventually, Argentina’s coach Sabella decided to put change their formation @ half time and inserted Gago & Higuain on the field and everything changed… Argentina’s attack looked more fluid and they created some scoring chances against a solid Bosnian team.

I expect Iran to completely be focused in defending in here… they will “park the bus”, but by playing so close of their GK… they will be prone to commit individual defensive errors, something normal when you are facing such skillful players like Messi, Aguero or Di Maria.  

My fair line for this contest is Argentina -2.5/-3 so, we have some value w/ this -2 line.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Argentina (-2) @ -101 / 1.99 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -108 / 1.92) on 5 Dimes

World Cup Daily Message 06/21

Yesterday's Recap Plays:

Under 2.5 Goals Italy vs. Costa Rica WIN

Under 2.5 Goals France vs. Switzerland LOSS
Ecuador ML WIN

Daily Message:

After losing our Triple Dime 1st round GOY play w/ England, we bounced back yesterday by going 2-1 ATS in our WC plays.

Costa Rica has been the biggest surprise of the tournament… they beat Uruguay 3-1 while being ~ @+800 / 7.00 dogs and yesterday, they defeated Italy 1-0 while being ~ @+600 / 6.00 dogs! WOW! More surprisingly, it wasn’t a classic case of an upset win from Costa Rica! They actually deserve it… Italy couldn’t “do” anything in the second half against them – it says a lot about Costa Rica’s outstanding defensive positioning.

On the other game, France trashed Switzerland quite easily. They are showing a lot of positive signs and so, the absence of their best player Franck Ribery hasn’t been noticed – a good sign! Our future play of them winning their group is in good hands.

Going on for today, we have 3 games to work…I’m yet to release anything for today.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter