NBA - 713 New Orleans Hornets @ 714 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: San Antonio by 6 points
San Antonio will be playing tonight with Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan, two important players that improve both the team's offense and defense when they are on the court. On the other hand, Anthony Davis is questionable for tonight, however the team's defense is better with him off the court than on the court (113.6 defensive rating with him vs 107.3 defensive rating without him). The Spurs are coming from a win at Philadelphia, in a game that was a brick fest: San Antonio shot 8-26 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-18 3pts, while Philadelphia shot 8-28 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-13 3pts! The Spurs were able to win this contest due to a great defense down the stretch, where they allowed the Sixers to score just one point on their last ten possessions!
It was weird to see San Antonio struggling so much on offense on their last game against New Orleans, with an offensive rating of just 99.8! New Orleans is a poor defensive team on transitions and on the perimeter due to their tactics of packing the paint, even though they also struggle on rim defense and yet, the Spurs struggled with just 6-21 3pts! In theory, San Antonio's offense has another good matchup against the Hornets's defense and in the previous game between these two teams, I took a Triple Dime on the Over by saying the following:
“Matchup wise, the Hornets defense will struggle, as they are just #27 on spot up defense and also #27 on 3pts defense by allowing 37.2% 3pts to their opponents. They are also the 4th worst team in the league in 16-23 feet defense by allowing 41.4% FG. Considering San Antonio's excellent perimeter shooting, New Orleans is getting torched today on defense. “
Note that the Hornets's offense on that game was excellent with 95 points and an offensive rating of 110! They have been playing with a lot of confidence lately and this is why I took the Hornets on a Double Dime Play on their last game against Sacramento at home. San Antonio isn't an elite team in defending pick and roll ball handler plays (#16) by allowing 0.79 PPP and so, the Hornets will have a nice edge on offense tonight.
With San Antonio missing two important pieces of their lineup, with the Hornets being very confident right now and also having a better spot (both teams played last Monday, however the Hornets played an early game, while San Antonio played a night game at Philadelphia), I expect New Orleans to be very competitive tonight and so, I'll take them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 New Orleans Hornets (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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