NBA Premium Play 01/21: Brooklyn Nets @ New York Knicks

NBA - 709 Brooklyn Nets @ 710 New York Knicks

Projected Line: 196 points | NY Knicks by 1 point

Both teams are well rested for this game. This will be the 4th and last game between these two teams during the regular season, but this will be Brooklyn's first game against the Knicks under coach P.J. Carlesimo. On the first three games of the series, both teams had decent offensive ratings, but the pace of these games was ridiculously slow (81.26, 82.20 and 83.25)! The difference for today is that Brooklyn is now playing a more free lance offense, without overthinking like they were during the Avery Johnson era. With Avery Johnson as coach, Brooklyn averaged a pace factor of 86.76 and an offensive rating of 107.32, while after his dismissal, the Nets are now averaging a pace factor of 87.39 and an offensive rating of 114.38! Not only the pace has gone a bit faster with Avery gone, as Brooklyn became a much more efficient offensive team! This is the result of the dynamic that Deron Williams now gives the team, as he is not only playing much better, as he is also being more aggressive and this will immediately be a problem for the Knicks, who struggle against point guards that are aggressive on the dribble penetrations.

The Knicks are coming from a nice win against Detroit in London. Iman Shumpert looked good and was aggressive. Carmelo Anthony is now sharing the ball and he had sharp numbers: 8-19 FG and 7-9 FT. Even Amare Stoudemire was aggressive with 11-12 FT in just 20 minutes. The Knicks's offense has been much more solid lately and if we exclude games against good perimeter defensive teams like Indiana and Chicago. Brooklyn isn't a great perimeter defense and so, the Knicks will have an easier matchup on offense, after facing three great perimeter defense in three of their last four games: Indiana is #4 with 32.8% 3pts allowed, Chicago is #7 with 33.8% 3pts allowed, Detroit is #3 with 32.7% 3pts allowed, but Brooklyn is only #27 with 37.6% 3pts allowed!

So, with the Knicks having a good offensive game and with an improved Brooklyn offense as well, we have once again a nice matchup for this game to have nice offensive ratings. The question is that I think this game will have a faster pace than the previous three games between these two teams and so, I expect this game to go Over the totals line posted by the sportsbooks. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. As I believe Brooklyn is clearly an improved team right now, I expect them to have as many chances as the Knicks to win this game, therefore I'll be taking Brooklyn plus the points in here as well.

***NOTE: Currently both Pinnacle and Bovada have Brooklyn +4. As the public is naturally with the Knicks, I believe other sportsbooks will eventually put Brooklyn as +4 as well.***

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Brooklyn Nets (+4) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada