NBA - 703 Toronto Raptors @ 704 Miami Heat
Projected Line: Miami by 8 points | 200 points
Miami is super rested for this game, as they haven't played over the last 5 days, while Toronto had 2 days off to prepare this game. The Heat won't have any problems in scoring near the basket today. Toronto hasn't been protecting the rim well by allowing 66% FG this season, 71% FG on their last 10 games and 75% FG on their last 5 games! The fact that the Raptors have been playing shorthanded on the frontcourt doesn't help them at all and Miami will then have a big edge on this area every time Lebron James or Dwayne Wade penetrate into the basket tonight. Every time Toronto faces teams that like to attack on transition, they aren't capable of having good defensive numbers. Charlotte scored 15 fast break points against them, Milwaukee scored 17 and even Philadelphia scored 16! No wonder that Toronto is just #17 on transition defense by allowing 1.15 PPP this season, while they are clearly on regression on this area right now, as they allowed 1.20 PPP on their last 10 games and 1.39 PPP on their last 5 games! Therefore, Miami's offense has a great spot for a big offensive performance tonight.
Regarding the Raptors's offense, Toronto is likely to play small ball tonight and Aaron Gray will barely play tonight, as he isn't needed on this game due to Miami's small ball lineups. Toronto's offense has been improving lately and on their last 12 games, they have averaged an offensive rating of 113.8, when they averaged just 105.5 on their first 29 games of the season! They have improved a lot on pick and rolls since Kyle Lowry came back and the combinations between their guards and Amir Johnson/Ed Davis is very interesting. Besides that, Toronto has been having good numbers on offensive rebounds and they will have an edge in here against the Heat. Toronto has lost some games lately, but they were close contests. They are confident and I see some value on them tonight on such a high spread line. I believe Miami's mindset for tonight will be to win via shootout, therefore I'll be taking both the Raptors and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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