Why the Nuggets have lost three in a row?

There are a lot of problems in Denver right now. George Karl doesn't have a magical solution for them or he would have used it by now on this series. Their spot up defense has been terrible all season and they are getting torched by the Warriors's perimeter shooting on this series. Things only get worst for them when they lost Danilo Gallinari for the season with a knee injury and with all the changes on the Nuggets's frontcourt, Kostas Koufos has lost his confidence and the changes that George Karl introduced throughout this series only destroyed the team's chemistry. Denver's offense needs to grab offensive boards and torch Golden State on transition, as their shooting on half court sets isn't good enough for them to outshoot the Warriors. They had 14 assists and 23 turnovers on Game 4 and even though Ty Lawson has been excellent, Denver is still struggling. 

But the most ridiculous part of the Nuggets have been on their frontcourt. George Karl has decided to start Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler together on the frontcourt, while introducing Kostas Koufos and JaVale McGee together on the second unit. Putting Koufos and McGee together on court means that the Nuggets only less two options on offense when they are on court, while things on defense are also quite poor. Corey Brewer gambles too much on defense and loses his positioning quite often, while the same happens to JaVale McGee. If we add a terrible defender like Andre Miller to the lineup, then we have a defensive catastrophe. As much as Andre Miller is a smart player and a good backup PG, he can't defend. George Karl needs to "hide" him on defense, but that's tough when the Warriors basically only have shooters on court, with even the rookies Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green shooting very well on this series. But to make things even worse for the Nuggets, George Karl decided to put the terrible defender Andre Miller guarding... Stephen Curry! So, it's not a surprise that Curry has been absolutely torching the Nuggets game after game on this series. 

The only positive thing that Denver had in Game 4 was that they've finally won the boards battle. After grabbing just 44.40%, 46.79% and 46.27% of the rebounds on the first three games of this series, the Nuggets grabbed 56.71% of the rebounds on Game 4. But they still lost by 14 points! I'm passing on tonight's game because I don't trust Denver anymore on this series and Golden State is on a poor spot tonight, as they will have a home game on Game 6 to close the series at their favor. 

NBA Premium Play 04/29: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets

NBA - 521 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 522 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Houston by 2 points

Oklahoma City won Game 3 with a lot of luck with that three-pointer by Kevin Durant. The Thunder started very well the game, but then Russell Westbrook's absence was quite evident, with the Thunder having a 30% volume on isolations and especially with them struggling to score in transition with just 6 fast break points and a horrible 1-7 FG on transition plays! Houston had a very slow start, but then they woke up and they outplayed the Thunder for most of the game. They have a clear edge on ball movement over the Thunder right now and I expect them to be super fired up for tonight to avoid a series sweep. The Rockets could have won Game 2 and 3 of this series, so they aren't like the Bucks or the Lakers, who seemed defeated throughout the whole series. Therefore, I expect Houston to show up tonight with extra motivation and beat the Thunder that aren't such a superior team without Russell Westbrook, as seen on Game 3. I'm taking the Rockets tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Houston Rockets (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/29: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 517 Indiana Pacers @ 518 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: Indiana by 3 points

Indiana went to the Game 3 of this series with a completely wrong mindset, as this generally happens with teams that have two easy wins on the first two games of the series:

“Our offensive disposition,” he said. “We played with a low motor. I thought we were passive and succumbed to their pressure.”

After two easy wins, where they weren't that bad defensively, but they won via offense with a high number of free throws and rebounds. The problem is that the Pacers's offense isn't consistent to win games via offense and so, they laid a huge egg on Game 3. However, it's important to note that the Pacers did a decent defensive job in that game. Atlanta shot 42.7% FG and dished 17 assists. In fact, Johan Petro was on court for 14 minutes and the Hawks were outscored by 3 points during that span of time. Indiana still won the rebounding edge by grabbing 53% of the boards. The problem was really Indiana's offense having the wrong mindset and so, Atlanta closed the paint well and the Pacers simply missed a bunch of jump shots with 4-25 3pts!

I believe Indiana will be much more focused tonight and especially with a much more appropriate gameplan by pounding Atlanta down low. A good sign of that was David West's numbers in Game 3, as he was on court for 34 minutes and Indiana outscored Atlanta by 4 points during that span! Therefore, I believe the Pacers will win tonight's contest and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Indiana Pacers (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 04/29

MLB - 913 Colorado Rockies @ 914 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: T. Chatwood vs T. Lilly)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 914 Los Angeles Dodgers RL -1 (w/ T. Lilly) @ -112 / 1.89 on 5Dimes

MLB - 923 Baltimore Orioles @ 924 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: Z. Britton vs J. Saunders)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 923 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ Z. Britton) @ -109 / 1.92 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 04/28: Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics

MLB - 975 Baltimore Orioles @ 976 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: M. Gonzalez vs B. Colon)

Miguel Gonzalez will start today for the Orioles and his 13/12 K/BB ratio really show that he hasn't been pitching well this season. He has a 4.13 ERA, but his advanced stats of 5.83 FIP and 5.55 xFIP tell another different story. Oakland is still #1 in the league on BB% with 11.4%, so their offense will be very patient today and explore Gonzalez's command issues with success.

On the other side, Bartolo Colon has been pitching really well. He has some issues with homeruns here and there, but he has been impressive this season, especially at home. He has very good control, with just one walk issues this season, while posting a 2.42 ERA, 2.80 FIP and 3.44 xFIP. I expect Oakland to take advantage of this clear SP edge in today's game to bounce back and avoid getting swept at home by the Orioles. Therefore, I'll be taking the Athletics today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 976 Oakland Athletics ML (w/ B. Colon) @ -107 / 1.94 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 04/28: Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox

MLB - 971 Tampa Bay Rays @ 972 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: D. Price vs D. Axelrod)

The Rays had a big offensive game yesterday, so I expect them to be confident for today, while the White Sox's bullpen is tired after a big workload last night. David Price had a terrible first outing of the season, but then he was much better on the following three starts against good competition like Boston, Baltimore and the NY Yankees, even though he is yet to win a decision this season, with 3.50, 3.16 and 1.75 FIP! His BABIP numbers are insanely high and this is why he has allowed so many runs on this early season. 

On the other hand, even though Dylan Axelrod has been at an acceptable level, he has been having a really low BABIP with .273! His pitch count are generally high due to his inability to strikeout batters and he is yet to pass the 6th inning this season, something that will force his team's tired bullpen to get into action early. With the Rays having a SP edge in here and with Tampa Bay also coming from a much needed breakout game yesterday, I expect them to pick up a good win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ D. Price) @ -137 / 1.73 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 04/28: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 955 Cincinnati Reds @ 956 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Cingrani vs R. Detwiler)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The totals line of 7 runs is just too short and it is being based exclusively on the current ERA numbers of these two pitchers: Cingrani 2.25 ERA and Detwiler 1.38 ERA. However, I believe both SP will regress big time today. Cingrani had back to back quality starts on his debut on the majors. Around 70% of his pitches were fastballs, but with him being a deceptive guy, he fooled the opposing teams with 8 and 9 strikeouts. The problem for him is that everytime teams were able to get to him, he allowed homeruns. He was also lucky that he faced Miami and the Cubs on these two starts, two teams that are in the bottom 10 in the league in hitting against LH pitchers this season. Now against Washington, the Nationals's power lineup should be able to do some damage on him today.

On the other side, we have Ross Detwiler, who has been his team's best SP on this early season. His first outing of the season was at Cincinnati, where he didn't allow a single run. However, he had a 4.16 FIP and 5.77 xFIP in that start, something that shows that he was lucky in that outing, where he had just 1 strikeout! I doubt he will be as lucky today, as Cincinnati is #2 in the league in hitting against LH pitchers with a great .809 OPS! Therefore, I expect a high scoring game today and so, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 955/956 Over 7 (w/ T. Cingrani & R. Detwiler) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/28: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 515 Denver Nuggets @ 516 Golden State Warriors

Projected Lines: 208 points | Denver by 5 points

The Game 3 of this series saw Denver being more competitive than they had been on Game 2. I didn't like the fact that George Karl abandoned his usual lineup with Kenneth Faried and Kostas Koufos on the frontcourt, but at least Faried moved much better on Game 3 than he had done in Game 2. Denver's improvements were mostly on defense, especially on the 1st half. The Nuggets trapped the pick and roll consistently and they were effective in removing Klay Thompson out of the game. Inexplicably, Denver abandoned that game plan in the second half. I don't know what happened, but that was the key for their loss. I believe Denver will be more focused in following their gameplan for the whole 48 minutes today.

The last game between these two teams had 218 points scored, but its 2nd half was a reflection of what I expect it will be happen tonight. Golden State did a great defensive job with Andrew Bogut managing to do a solid job in limiting Denver's rim offense and especially in avoiding the Nuggets to score second chance points. However, Denver with a similar approach to Game 3 should have more chances of winning tonight. Of course Stephen Curry is an incredible shooter, but Golden State also benefited from an incredible shooting of Jarrett Jack and Harrison Barnes in the previous game, as they shot a combined of 17-29 FG, something close to impossible of being repeated today. This will be the first time the two teams have just 1 day off to rest between games and therefore, Denver's superior depth should be the key in here. In the last game, Golden State's starters played more than 36 minute excluding Bogut and they will pay the price today. Denver will come aggressive and I expect to win the boards battle for the first time this season. This should give them a relatively comfortable in here, on a well fought contest like last game's second half was. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Nuggets and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 212,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Denver Nuggets (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/28: Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA - 511 Miami Heat @ 512 Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Line: 199 points

The Game 3 of this series showed another clear loss for the Bucks, but they still did some interesting things. They didn't want to play a lot of halfcourt sets and scored 20 fast break points with a nice 9-13 FG in transitions. Their frontcourt played well, with the Bucks scoring a series high of 46 points in the paint. The problem of the Bucks was that their two main starts, Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, struggled on their shooting. Milwaukee managed to have their best numbers where it's easier to score (transition and down low), but they struggled on their 3pts shooting. But if we assume that they won't shoot 18-29 FT or commit 20 turnovers today, they should be able to have a quite positive offensive performance today.

On the other side, Miami did what we expect them to do. They had easy looks once again on the perimeter, but this time they finally had a nice 3pts shooting game with 8-19 3pts! Everything was easy for the Heat in Game 3, with them having 31 assists on the 41 shots they made in the game. Of course it's not easy for Miami to have these great numbers again, but Dwyane Wade is out and he shot 1-12 FG in Game 3, while they won't shoot 14-25 FT as a team and it's also unlikely that they will commit 19 turnovers once again today. Even though this game may have worse FG% than Game 3, that will compensated with an improvement in these three areas. Therefore, after the Game 3 had 195 points scored, I expect today's game to be a little bit more and with this game having the same totals line as Game 3, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA 04/28 Free Premium Play: New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics

New York  at Boston

NBA - 509 New York Knicks @ 510 Boston Celtics Projected Line: Boston by 2 points I believe Boston will show some pride and avoid getting swept on this series today. JR Smith is suspended for today's game and this is a huge blow for the Knicks, who lose one of their main shooters and the NY team is pretty much being an exclusively jump-shooting team on this series. In Game 3, the Knicks had just 8 FT attempts and 32 points in the paint, but of course a great 40.7% 3pts. However, most of those shots were contested and without JR Smith on the floor today, Carmelo Anthony will be the only player who can hit these contested shots. Boston was a much more aggressive team than the Knicks in the Game 3 of this series. They had a rebounding edge (Tyson Chandler has been pretty much a ghost so far on this series), they also had an edge in points at the paint and in free throw attempts. The problem for the Celtics is that they have been missing a lot of layups, while committing also an impressive number of turnovers. The good news is that these absurd misses and turnovers are easily correctable and so, I expect the Celtics to pick up a nice win today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Boston Celtics (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/27: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 505 Indiana Pacers @ 506 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: 184 points

The Hawks must be regretting their decision of not fighting for the 5th seed in the East on the last week of the regular season, in order to face Brooklyn in the first around and avoid facing Indiana, as their physicality is just too much for them. I understood Larry Drew's decision of using a speedy lineup of Al Horford, Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, Devin Harris and Jeff Teague in the first two games. The Hawks tried to attack Indiana in transition with their two quick guards and prevent Indiana's defense to shut them down in halfcourt. This has actually worked, as Atlanta shot better than Indiana in the first two games of the season with a higher FG% plus they scored a nice 17 fast break points in Game 2 against the team that is #1 in the league on transition defense!

However, they played so small that their defense was completely crushed by Indiana's offense that scored +110 points in the first two games of the series. Josh Smith and Al Horford had to guard the huge Pacers frontcourt and that resulted in Al Horford getting into foul trouble in Game 1 and then, Josh Smith having the same fate in Game 2. Kyle Korver tried to defend Paul George in Game 1 and was a disaster. Then, Devin Harris guarded Paul George in Game 2 and he was actually decent in that. But the truth is that Indiana dominated them down low by winning the boards battle in the first two games of the series plus gaining a lot of fouls due to their size edge. The discrepancy in free throw attempts of the two teams has been huge for Indiana on this series plus they have been red hot from the outside, something unusual for them, who tend to be streaky on their long-range shooting. 

Because of all of these, Larry Drew had no other option but confirm that Atlanta will "play big" on tonight's game. It looks like Johan Petro will start at Center, moving Al Horford to PF and Josh Smith to the SF position, allowing Kyle Korver to come off the bench.

"Certainly, minus Zaza, that kind of puts us behind the eight-ball" Larry Drew said. "But I feel confident we can match up. We have ability to go big. We have ability to go small. The first couple of games, we played a lot of small. We tried to utilize our speed and our quickness. Now we may change a little bit."

Kyle Korver will leave the starting lineup and the truth is that Indiana has been doing a great job in closing out Korver and with Petro/Johnson on the lineup, we will have Josh Smith guarding Paul George and Al Horford defending David West. Johan Petro is a solid defensive post up player, but he is very limited on offense. Atlanta tried to win via offense on the first two games of the season and they got crushed, so the Hawks will be trying a different approach tonight. So, an inevitable offensive regression from Atlanta will happen today. Without a great shooter like Kyle Korver on the starting lineup, Josh Smith will play at the perimeter more and that will end in Smith taking some terrible outside shots as usual. The floor spacing of the Hawks's offense won't be as good as usual and with that, Indiana's elite defense will shut them down tonight. But, on the other hand, Atlanta will also be doing a better defensive performance. We have to expect an inevitable regression on the Pacers's shooting and even the free throw numbers of the Pacers won't be as huge as they were on the first two games tonight, especially as they will be playing on the road this time. I expect this game to be the first low scoring contest of this series and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 189 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/27: Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 503 Los Angeles Clippers @ 504 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: 170 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This is in my opinion, the best spot of this series for a low scoring game, as we are in front of two teams that had just one day off to rest, while this contest will be also an early game. Therefore, the little time for rest between games on this very physical series is brutal for both teams. Memphis finally managed to win a game on this series on Game 3 and their gameplan was pretty easy to understand and it was also the main reason why I also took the Under in that game. They slowed down a bit the pace of the game, especially when the Clippers's second unit was on court to avoid the LA team to have a bunch of transition points. For the first time on this series, the Clippers had single digits fast break points, With the game being a pure half court contest, the Grizzlies didn't concede good looks to the Clippers due to their great perimeter defense, even though the LA team still shot 9-23 3pts! But overall, the Grizzlies's defense was at a level that they hadn't reached in both Game 1 and 2. 

On the other side, Memphis's offense has to work a lot to generate points. We all know that they don't have good shooting skills and this was proven with their 4-16 3pts. The Grizzlies have now shot 11-39 (28%) on the first three games of this series! The Clippers's defense is simply packing the paint and dare Memphis to shoot from the outside. Perhaps both teams will shoot a bit better today, but the referees from Game 3 were too tight on the calls and they didn't let the teams to get physical. Not only there were a lot of free throws attempts, as both teams were very effective from the charity line, with the Clippers shooting 21-23 FT (Blake Griffin had 6-7 FT!)! The potential improved shooting on today's game will be compensated by less free throws attempts and less effectiveness on the charity line, so I expect another very low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 178 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 04/27: Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls

Brooklyn  at Chicago

NBA - 501 Brooklyn Nets @ 502 Chicago Bulls Projected Line: 174 points On this moment of the series, both offenses are being completely limited by both defenses and this won't change today. Gerald Wallace said on an interview yesterday that he still doesn't know his role on the team and that's worrying considering we are in April! Anyway, after a nice Game 1, Gerald Wallace disappeared completely over the last two games, something dramatic as with Reggie Evans on the floor, the Nets have two limited players on offense, something really worrying against an elite defensive team like the Bulls. The inclusion of Joakim Noah instead of Nazr Mohammed was the biggest change on this series. Of course Brook Lopez will still have good numbers, but he won't dominate like he did early on the series. It seems like Brooklyn won't change their lineup for today and they will just change their rotations. The Nets are defending well, but it's not like it's tough to defend the Bulls. Brook Lopez has been defending well down low and the Nets limited the Bulls to just 9-27 FG at the rim for an incredible 33.4% FG! Chicago was still able to generate some offense due to their great 14-23 FG from 16-23 feet, but they were efficient from the worst zone to be efficient and so, I expect a regression from them at this area today. Therefore, I expect another super low scoring game today and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 177 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/26: San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 741 San Antonio Spurs @ 742 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: 182 points

After the Game 1 of this series had a 92.4 pace factor, I correctly mentioned that the pace of Game 2 would be much lower due to the Lakers's influence and that happened, as the pace of Game 2 was 84.9! Things pace-wise won't change for Game 3, as the Lakers's issue on this series is on offense, as it is too predictable. Gregg Popovich will pack the paint and of course give more space to the offensively challenged Lakers's backcourt formed tonight by Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock and Chris Duhon! Not only these three players are poor shooters, as they will also struggle in putting the ball into the right spots down low to feed Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. The Lakers shot a respectable 45.1% FG in Game 2, with just 18 assists on 37 FG made, in a symptom of poor ball movement that will only get worse tonight without Steve Nash and Steve Blake available. 

On the other hand, I expect the Lakers to be able to do a better job tonight than they did in Game 2, where they struggled. It was supposed that with Dwight Howard, the Lakers's defense would dominate in the paint like they did in Game 1 where the Spurs shot 11-22 FG at the rim, but this time, San Antonio shot 17-24 (71%) FG at the rim, while they also shot 8-16 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-14 treys! I expect the Lakers to do a better job on their inside defense tonight and so, the Spurs's offensive efficiency will depend from their outside shooting skills that has been streaky for a while now. With the Lakers inserting a slow pace on tonight's game, they will struggle on offense, bu they will have a decent inside defense via Dwight Howard, so I believe tonight's game will be a really low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.  

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 741/742 Under 186 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

MLB Premium Card 04/26

MLB - 953 Chicago Cubs @ 954 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: S. Feldman vs W. LeBlanc)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Miami Marlins ML (w/ W. LeBlanc) @ -108 / 1.93 on Betonline

MLB - 957 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 958 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Sanchez vs L. Lynn)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 St Louis Cardinals RL -1 (w/ L. Lynn) @ -139 / 1.72 on 5Dimes

MLB - 971 Tampa Bay Rays @ 972 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: R. Hernandez vs J. Peavy)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ R. Hernandez) @ +132 / 2.32 on 5Dimes

MLB - 975 Baltimore Orioles @ 976 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: W. Chen vs T. Milone)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 976 Oakland Athletics ML (w/ T. Milone) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bovada

MLB - 979 Atlanta Braves @ 980 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: P. Maholm vs A. Sanchez)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 980 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ A. Sanchez) @ -137 / 1.73 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 04/26: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

Denver  at Golden State

NBA - 734 Denver Nuggets @ 735 Golden State Warriors Projected Line: Golden State by 3 points In the Game 2 of this series, the Warriors used a small lineup with Jarrett Jack, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson playing together on the backcourt, while Harrison Barnes was sent into the PF position to defend Wilson Chandler, who isn't a bad matchup for the Warriors. This wasn't the first time at all that Golden State used this 3-guard combo, but what changed was Barnes at the PF position. The most curious part of this game was an in-game interview in mid-3rd quarter (GSW leading it by 96-80) where George Karl was asked what he would change to the game and he answered "play faster"! I had already mentioned that Golden State's offense is really a bad matchup for Denver, as their weakest point on defense is their spot up defense due to their focus being in packing the paint. Now for Game 3, it has been widely reported that George Karl will insert both Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler in the starting frontcourt, with a lineup composed by Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, Andre Iguodala, Evan Fournier and Ty Lawson. Of course this lineup will be more mobile, however Faried is still a 50% physically right now. But still the Nuggets's defense isn't used to play with this lineup and there are no miracle changes in two days! Denver's main problem is that they need to have two key edges to beat Golden State: offensive rebounding (they won't have it with Faried as their center) and transition offense (as in a pure shooting battle between these two teams, the Warriors will outshoot them 9 times out of 10). It seems ridiculous that the Nuggets attempted one more three-pointer than Golden State in Game 2! On the other hand, the Warriors are being very smart on this series. They are abdicating of grabbing offensive boards just to go back to defense as soon as possible to prevent Denver from torching them on transitions, who scored just 8 fast break points who scored in Game 2! Denver should do a bit better on this area tonight, but they will still use a lineup without great shooting skills, besides Wilson Chandler who is an inconsistent shooter. So, the Nuggets are making a dangerous option with these changes tonight. Unlike Denver, Golden State is very familiarized with their 3-guards lineup. Stephen Curry will play even though he is a bit limited with an ankle injury right now, but with him on court, the Warriors will continue shooting well from the outside against the Nuggets. Golden State is the best spot up shooting team in the league, while Denver's spot up defense is the worst in the league, so no way the Warriors regress big time on their shooting tonight, in comparison to their insane Game 2 shooting. A small regression perhaps, but Golden State won't be shooting 30's% FG tonight. The Warriors seem more ready to play at a nice level tonight than the Nuggets and with the crowd fired up for their first home game of the postseason, I expect the Warriors to pick up an important win tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735 Golden State Warriors (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 04/25: Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics

MLB - 921 Baltimore Orioles @ 922 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hammel vs J. Parker)

Jarrod Parker started the season with three poor outings, but he finally had a quality start on his last outing, similar to the level that he showed last season. By the way, two of his three poor spots were against Detroit and the LA Angels, so they weren't easy matchups for him. On the other hand, Jason Hammel continues to struggle with his terrible control: 3/3, 4/1, 3/5 K/BB ratio! This isn't good news for him now against Oakland, who is #1 on the league with BB% with 11.7%! The Athletics's lineup is super patient and they will make Hammel struggle. 

Both teams had to make a big travel to play tonight's game and so, it's normal that some bad offense will happen in here. The Athletics's bullpen will be the key in here, especially considering the Orioles went to extra innings yesterday. Therefore, I'll be taking Oakland in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 922 Oakland Athletics ML (w/ J. Parker) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 04/25: Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins

MLB - 919 Texas Rangers @ 920 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: N. Tepesch vs V. Worley)

This is a bad spot for Texas, as they had a big game last night to close a series against a divisional rival. They had now to make a big trip to cold in the cold Minnesota. The Twins will start Vance Worley, who has been very unlucky on this start of the season, but he was finally able to conciliate his good advanced numbers with a good outing on his last start with a 1.29 ERA, 3.72 FIP and 3.44 xFIP. In fact, he has a 7.11 ERA this season, but just 3.27 FIP and 4.11 xFIP! I expect Worley to dominate tonight, while the Twins should be able to make some damage against Nick Tepesch, who is currently carrying a minor right arm injury. Therefore, I'll be taking Minnesota tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 920 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ V. Worley) @ +101 / 2.01 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 04/25: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

MLB - 915 Toronto Blue Jays @ 916 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs H. Kuroda)

We have some value on the Blue Jays as underdogs tonight. After a bad start against Cleveland, Mark Buehrle is coming from three consecutive good starts in terms of advanced stats with 3.47, 3.01 and 3.29 FIP! It might look weird, but the Yankees are really struggling against LH pitchers this season and they are dead last on hitting against them this season with an awful .557 OPS!

On the other side, Hiroki Kuroda has been pitching well this season. However, he will have a tough matchup tonight against the Blue Jays's power lineup, who woke up yesterday with five home runs at Baltimore! I see Buehrle having a great outing tonight and with Kuroda being threatened by a very dangerous lineup from Toronto, so I believe we have great value to take the Blue Jays as underdogs tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ M. Buehrle) @ +125 / 2.25 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 04/25: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets

MLB - 903 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 904 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: H. Ryu vs J. Hefner)

NOTE: No writeup for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (w/ H. Ryu) @ -132 / 1.76 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/24: Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 731 Los Angeles Lakers @ 732 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: 185 points | San Antonio by 5 points

I really liked how the Lakers defended in Game 1. Dwight Howard is now close to his best level and showing why he is a three-time defensive player of the year. He got outplayed here and there by Tim Duncan, who is playing amazingly, but in general Howard is dominating on paint defense once again by altering several shots, including on Tony Parker's penetrations. San Antonio shot just 11-22 FG at the rim in Game 1! On the frontcourt duel, Pau Gasol is excellent as point forward by dishing some excellent assists. The frontcourt combo of Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard has only Tim Duncan as a real threat, as Tiago Splitter is still lacking experience to play at the level of the other three frontcourt players. Splitter shot 0-4 FG in 29 minutes and he struggled in both ends of the floor. The problem is that the Spurs have no frontcourt depth and they were a bit fortunate that Matt Bonner played well with some lucky key boards, but that won't happen twice in a row. Manu Ginobili had a great game, but if it wasn't that, the Spurs would have been screwed, as they shot 37.6% FG as a team in Game 1!

I expect the Spurs to shoot a bit better today, as they missed some good looks, but they also had an unexpected rebound edge and a nice turnover differential (9TO for the Spurs, 18TO for the Lakers). I don't expect the Spurs to have such edges on these two areas today. The Lakers will continue having an edge on the frontcourt with Gasol and Howard, especially with Howard being more dominant than he was in Game 1. This will be tough for Duncan, who will have to spend a lot of energy on defense that he will be then missing on offense. Steve Nash was lacking some rhythm in Game 1 after missing several games and thanks to that, he missed some wide open looks. Now on Game 2, with a bit more rhythm, he won't shoot 6-15 FG as he did in 

Game 1, as he will certainly continuing getting some nice looks tonight, as the Spurs will be more focused on defending the Lakers's frontcourt. 

It's also important to mention that San Antonio's defense was excellent in Game 1 and even though they are allowing some space to the Lakers's perimeter shooters, the LA team doesn't have a lot of shooters to pound them from the outside anyways. I believe Gregg Popovich knows he will be winning this series through defense and therefore, I expect another low scoring game in here, with the Lakers led by Dwight Howard turning this game into a very competitive one. So, I'll be taking both the Lakers and the Under tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 731/732 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 731 Los Angeles Lakers (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/24: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 727 Houston Rockets @ 728 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Lines: 216 points | Oklahoma City by 15 points

Houston's gameplan on Game 1 completely failed and so, it has been reported that the Rockets will change the system by playing smaller on Game 2. The best way of exposing the Thunder's defense is to use frontcourt players who are good mid/long-range shooters. Players like Lebron James or Carmelo Anthony at the PF position can push Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins to the outside, where they struggled, as seen for example in last year's finals. The problem is that Houston has Greg Smith at the PF position, who is a old school PF player and so, they struggled in Game 1. Serge Ibaka easily controlled him and the Thunder's defense had a nice performance. In fact, Smith played just 17 minutes in Game 1, with the Rockets getting outscored by 34 points during that span!!! Besides that, Houston doesn't have an expanded playbook, it's just a bunch of pick and rolls with no diversity. Oklahoma City's pick and roll ball handler defense is an elite unit, especially against a player like James Harden that they know so well. 

On offense, the Thunder have Russell Westbrook crushing Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons gets too tired defending Kevin Durant to shoot well on offense. Besides that, Greg Smith is also a poor defender and the rookie Motiejunas is even worse! The solution for Houston is to play with a smaller lineup, but they will struggle even more on defense with that. Coach Kevin McHale said the following after Game 1:

"It wasn't any of their actions that hurt us. They had 21 points off of our turnovers and then offensively we got stagnant. We didn't get much pass-pass combination and we didn't have a whole lot of flow tonight offensively."

The Rockets will still want to attack off the dribble if Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison or Kendrick Perkins switch on screens and defend James Harden, Jeremy Lin or Chandler Parsons on the perimeter. They said the change must be what they do off the dribble. So, I have no doubt that Greg Smith will barely play on the remaining games of this series. Houston will then play with an even smaller than usual lineup and even though they will be a bit better on offense, their defense is going to be absolutely crushed by Oklahoma City. Therefore, I expect another blowout win for the Thunder tonight, on a super high scoring contest and so, I'll be taking both Oklahoma City and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 727/728 Over 213 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 728 Oklahoma City Thunder (-11,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 04/24: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 975 New York Yankees @ 976 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: A. Pettitte vs A. Cobb)

Andy Pettitte missed a start due to back spasms, but then looked good at Toronto. However, his advanced stats say that he is overrated, looking at the three starts he has already had this season. His 5.02 FIP and 3.83 FIP on his last two outings were clearly worse than his ERA numbers. On a potential pitching duel with Alex Cobb, I expect the Rays's pitcher to get the upperhand. 

Just like it happens with Pettitte, Cobb is a groundball machine and so, he is a tough matchup for the Yankees's power lineup. He showed some excellent poise on his last start against Oakland, where he allowed 3ER, even though he allowed 10 hits. I expect him to have another decent showing against the Yankees today, while the Rays should cause some damage on Pettitte, as he is likely to regress a bit today, especially while facing a confident Rays's lineup. Therefore, I'll be taking Tampa Bay tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 976 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ A. Cobb) @ -128 / 1.78 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 04/24: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies

MLB - 959 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 960 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: W. Rodriguez vs R. Halladay) 

Even though he has been dealing with some minor injuries, Wandy Rodriguez started the season amazingly, including a shutout to the red hot offense of the Braves on his last start: 5/0 K/BB ratio in 7 innings, with 1.59 FIP and 2.77 xFIP! Today he will have a favorable matchup against Philadelphia, who is struggling badly against LH pitchers this season: #30 in the league with just .520 OPS! This well very visible yesterday, as the Phillies weren't able to score a single run against Jeff Locke!

On the other side, Roy Halladay is coming from back to back quality starts, including an outing against the Cardinals where he "threw his sinker 50 times in his last start", the Philadelphia Daily News reports. It was the most frequent Halladay has used the pitch since 2009. "He's getting back to throwing it more," pitching coach Rich Dubee said.”

Halladay is still missing some speed on his pitches and thanks to that, he allowed 2 home runs on his last outing. Today Pittsburgh is coming with the lesson well studied, after watching Halladay's performance against St Louis. Historically, Halladay has been dominating Pittsburgh, but he hasn't been dominant at all this season and the Pirates have been hitting decently on this early season. Therefore, I see good edge on the Pirates and Rodriguez tonight, so I'll be taking them in here for the upset.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ W. Rodriguez) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 04/24: Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox

MLB - 967 Cleveland Indians @ 968 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: Z. McAllister vs J. Quintana)

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Chicago White Sox ML (w/ J. Quintana) @ -133 / 1.75 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 04/24: Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

Atlanta  at Indiana

NBA - 729 Atlanta Hawks @ 730 Indiana Pacers Projected Line: 191 points Indiana comfortably won Game 1 of this season due to two tremendous edges: rebounding (60% rebound rate) and free throws (34 FTA vs 14 FTA, with Paul George shooting 17-18 FT). Of course I expect a bigger effort from the Hawks to try to limit these two key factors, but this domination from Indiana on these two areas will be inevitable, as we are talking about a team that has a tremendous size advantage over Atlanta and that they will continue using that throughout this series. The Hawks were never a good rebounding team during the regular season or had a nice FT/rate numbers, so they will have to live with these two edges during this series. Atlanta had a nice start of the game by using their superior speed as a weapon through Jeff Teague and Devin Harris. The Hawks managed to generate plenty of good looks against Indiana and it wasn't surprising that they shot 50% FG and 41% 3pts during the game, as they had great looks, they pushed the ball and I expect the same to happen tonight. The focus of Atlanta's practice was on executing better on both ends and playing with pace. Coach Larry Drew said the Hawks did well early on when they jumped out to the early lead, with dictating the pace, but then they got too stagnant. "We gotta run more. At the beginning of the game I thought our tempo was really good. We were really running to attack and then offensively we were running our sets with pace. When we run it with pace, we get good ball movement. When we started isolating, we got into a situation where we got stagnant isolating, standing around and started taking bad shots. That led to them running. I told our guys, a bad shot is just as good as a turnover. Again, this is playoff basketball, you have to do the things that are going to give you an advantage and do the things you feel you are good with. I feel we are good when we run and when we move the basketball because we become hard to defend because we are less predictable." The key factor in Game 1 was Al Horford playing just 28 minutes due to foul trouble. He committed his second PF with 5:29 left in the first half and coach Drew panicked and removed him from the court for the rest of the half. This is a persistent issue with some coaches, but Larry Drew might be the league's top offender, with Al Horford as the victim. It makes no sense on so many levels! Horford isn't remotely foul prone, as he averaged 2.2 per game while playing 37 minutes a night this season. On the other side, I liked to see Indiana not playing half court sets exclusively on offense, where their size edge is tremendous. They also pushed the pace and score in transition. Atlanta scored 14 fast break points, but Indiana responded them with 12 fast break points on their own! Of course, Atlanta will put their focus in stopping Paul George and that will free up more space down low for David West and Roy Hibbert. Therefore, I expect another high scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 729/730 Over 186,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/23: Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 725 Golden State Warriors @ 726 Denver Nuggets

Projected Line: 212 points

The Game 1 of this series had a supersonic pace of almost 99, something that classifies pretty much as a run and gun kind of game. That's normal considering this is the style both teams like to play, however both offenses struggle and couldn't react to the adjustments that both defenses made, a surprise effect that won't happen once again tonight. The Nuggets's offense really missed Kenneth Faried and this was the key why I took the Warriors on Game 1. Wilson Chandler played 39 minutes to replace Faried and he actually had 13 rebounds, but the problem is that Chandler plays much further from the basket than Faried. This is proved with the fact that Chandler shot 0-1 FG at the rim, while he attempts 11 shots from +16 feet! He was another "guard" shooting away from the basket and this isn't something that the Nuggets's offense is used to have. This made Andrew Bogut's defensive task much easier, but with Faried back tonight, I expect Denver to pound the basket much more tonight, after a still decent outcome of 18-33 FG at the rim on Game 1! This will only benefit Denver's perimeter game, as Golden State will nice to close more the paint and therefore leave more space on the outside.

On the other side, David Lee got injured on Game 1 and he is now out for the season. By the way, he was struggling on Game 1 with 4-14 FG! Denver made the smart decision of double teaming Stephen Curry early on the possessions to force him to pass the ball. He didn't look ready for this kind of pressure and that definitely affected his mindset. Even though he shot 7-20 FG, he had a horrible start of the game, where he missed some wide open shots, something very uncharacteristic for him. Nevertheless, Golden State dished 27 assists, while showing a good ball movement! I expect the Warriors to be ready for the extra pressure on Curry. 

I expect tonight's game to be once again a fast paced contest, but with both offenses being much more efficient than they were on Game 1. Without David Lee on court, the Warriors will have to play even smaller than usual, with Draymond Green having some minutes at the PF position. Therefore, I expect a very high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725/726 Over 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/23: Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks

NBA - 723 Boston Celtics @ 724 New York Knicks

Projected Line: NY Knicks by 4 points

Boston had an excellent first half in Game 1 in both ends of the floor. Their defense is always going to be a tough matchup for the Knicks, as their frontcourt is very mobile and with that, they can defend on the outside with no problems. The Knicks's offense is based on isolations, pick and roll ball handler plays and spot up shots, but Boston is an elite defense in all these three areas and this was shown in Game 1. On the other hand, there is a way to pound the Knicks on defense: size edge with post up plays, but the Knicks can counter that with double teams. so on the exact moments, the player doing the post up should be able to pass the ball to the team mate who is left wide open. Paul Pierce does that very well by allowing Avery Bradley to make some great cuts into the basket and this is why Pierce ended Game 1 with a game high of 7 assists. Another player who should be able to do the same as Pierce is Kevin Garnett. The problem of the Celtics's offense is that they committed 4/5 turnovers in the first half on entry passes! Besides those turnovers, Boston's offense was able to generate better looks than the Knicks, who perform another brickfest. 

The key on Game 1 was Boston's offense on the second half. They stopped sharing the ball and driving into the basket. Perhaps tiredness may have been a factor, as Doc Rivers used just 8 players throughout the game, with Jeff Green playing 46 minutes and disappeared offensively on the second half. He was super aggressive on the first half on offense, while having to guard Carmelo Anthony on defense, so he was worn out down the stretch. On the other side, Carmelo Anthony and Raymond Felton also played more than 40 minutes, but Mike Woodson rotated his team more, with 3 bench players having almost the normal amount of minutes for a starter. With Pablo Priogioni back tonight, the Knicks will be a bit more vulnerable on defense. Doc Rivers mentioned after Game 1 that he wanted to use Jordan Crawford more in the following games and he will have a nice opportunity in here to attack the basket, while being defended by the slow footed Argentinian. 

During Game 1, Boston outscored the Knicks by 4 points throughout the 39 minutes where Paul Pierce was on the court. The Knicks had a volume of 33% on isolation plays, 26% on spot ups and 13% on pick and roll ball handler plays. This isn't a surprise at all, but on the other hand, the Celtics was able to surprise the Knicks until they ran out of energy. I expect Doc Rivers to manage the team's rotation better and with that, Boston has a nice chance to make the upset tonight or at least be super competitive. Therefore, I'll be taking the Celtics in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723 Boston Celtics (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 04/23: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

MLB - 911 Milwaukee Brewers @ 912 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Gallardo vs C. Richard)

Clayton Richard is a flyball pitcher, who needs big fields for his outings and so, he played well on his last two home games with 2 and 0 ER allowed. However, he struggled on his command with 4/4 and 3/3 K/BB ratios. As expected, he has tremendous problems against RH batters and Milwaukee's lineup is full of righties to pound him tonight. In fact, the Brewers's roster is hitting .360 BA and .918 OPS against Richard!

On the other side, Yovani Gallardo had some bad lucks on his previous outings with a really high BABIP. His advanced states (3.51 FIP and 3.98 xFIP) are much lower than his 5.24 ERA, so he is pitching better than the numbers are showing. I believe he will have a nice outing tonight, while Richard will struggle against the Brewers's hot offense, therefore I'll be taking Milwaukee tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 911 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ Y. Gallardo) @ -127 / 1.79 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 04/23: Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

MLB - 909 Atlanta Braves @ 910 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Teheran vs J. Garland)

Julio Teheran is a top prospect, but he has been disappointing on the majors after dominating on the minors. Scouts say that his change up was supposed to be his dominant pitch, but he hasn't been able to throw strikes with them. So, he has been struggling on his command with 7 walks in 21 innings! This is very problematic, as he is flyball pitcher and he is going to be facing the #2 ranked team in the league in hitting against RH pitchers on a hitting-friendly park like Colorado's. 

On the other side, Joe Garland has been a nice surprise this season and his ability to generate ground balls has been the key for him to have nice numbers at home. With a 57% GB% rate, he has been able to be quite decent this season. Atlanta has a power lineup, who has been crushing flyball pitchers, but Garland with his groundballs will be a tough matchup for them. Therefore, I see Colorado getting revenge tonight from their loss earlier today on the first game of this doubleheader, with a nice win over the Braves tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. Garland) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 04/23: St Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 901 St Louis Cardinals @ 902 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: A. Wainwright vs R. Detwiler)

Adam Wainwright had his third win of the season at Philadelphia last Thursday, where he allowed nine hits, while striking out four batters. After a shaky first outing of the season, Wainwright has been great on their following three outings, with just 5 runs allowed and a 22/0 K/BB ratio on 23 innings! His numbers say it all: 2.48 ERA, 1.09 ERA and 1.96 xFIP! 

On the other hand, Ross Detwiler has been good on this early season as well, but helped with some luck, as he had an extremely low .250 BABIP! He may have a 0.90 ERA, but his advanced stats are telling another story with 3.32 FIP and 3.93 xFIP! Detwilder is contact pitcher and this Cardinals's lineup is too tough for him to get away with another nice outing tonight, especially when St Louis's roster is hitting so well against him: .320 BA and .913 OPS! Therefore, I expect Wainwright to dominate tonight, while Detwiler has some problems, so I'll be taking the Cardinals tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ A. Wainwright) @ -118 / 1.85 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 04/23: Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

Milwaukee  at Miami

NBA - 721 Milwaukee Bucks @ 722 Miami Heat Projected Line: Miami by 18 points Miami's superior athleticism on the perimeter on the defensive end is a terrible matchup for the Bucks's backcourt, preventing them from having big games. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings actually had decent shooting nights on the Game 1 of this series, but the team's overall offense was basically just their guards improvising off the dribble all the time and attempted contested poor shots. Milwaukee's ball movement was poor and I don't expect it to get any better today. The Heat's aggressive rotations and closeouts force Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy to put it on the floor, where they aren't comfortable. To make things even worse for them both Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova looked clearly banged up, especially Sanders who was basically played at 50% of his skills. Milwaukee dished just 14 assists, they had just 7 transition plays against the Heat's quick defense and with Miami shooting well to the basket, the Bucks simply have no chance. On the other end, the Heat shot 21-23 FG at the rim on Game 1, they shot 56% FG and most of their missed shots were wide open attempts. Miami shot just 7-23 3pts, with Shane Battier shooting 1-7 3pts and Ray Allen 2-8. Most of these attempts were on great looks and it was actually uncharacteristic for them to miss so many of those shots, so I expect the Heat to shoot better from the perimeter tonight. The same thing should happen with their turnover numbers, as they had 19 in Game 1 and some of them were really sloppy. I was afraid that they would be a bit rusty as their starting lineup hadn't played together for a while and their turnovers number was indeed a bit higher than usual. On a matchup between a team who creates easy looks on offense in virtually every possession and a team that even though they made several contested poor shots still lost the Game 1 of this series by more than 20 points, I can only expect Miami to blowout Milwaukee once again tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Miami Heat (-14) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/22: Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers

NBA - 719 Memphis Grizzlies @ 720 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: LA Clippers by 3 points

From all the blowout wins that happened on the first game of the playoffs series, the Clippers's win over Memphis was the blowout whose result tells the least about what it happened on court during the game. With 10 minutes to go on the game, the Clippers were just up by 1 point, but their second unit led by Eric Bledsoe made a great run and helped their team in deciding the game in their favor. Until that run, all the small things went right for the Clippers, but the Grizzlies were still being competitive. The Clippers got some "lucky" rebounding going their way, Jamal Crawford hit a very contested three-pointer, while being fouled for a 3+1 play, with Chauncey Billups also making a lucky 2+1 jumper afterwards. 

As expected in every game refereed by Scott Foster, the game had a huge amount of fouls, not allowing any kind of physically between players. Thanks to that, Tony Allen and Zach Randolph quickly got into foul trouble in the first quarter, with Mike Conley also getting in foul trouble later on. Thanks to that, these three players were on court for just 17, 25 and 28 minutes respectively and so, Memphis struggled as they don't have the great depth that the Clippers have.

The Grizzlies got crushed on the boards, where Memphis were doubled-up (47-23) and allowed the Clippers to correct 42% of their own misses. The Grizzlies's offensive rebound rate of 31.0 was second best in the NBA in the regular season, but on the Game 1 of this series, they secured barely more than 10 percent of their misses. Finally, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph weren't terrible offensively (combined of 29 points on 10-22 FG and 8 assists), but it wasn't enough because they combined for a shocking six rebounds in 45 minutes of play! 

I don't expect this to happen once again tonight. I expect to see Memphis being more focused and especially also getting some lucky bounces going in their way as well. I believe the referees will allow more physical play than in Game 1 and this will only help the Grizzlies's physical style. Blake Griffin didn't look at 100% in Game 1 due to his back problems, but Zach Randolph couldn't capitalize on that due to foul trouble. Even though I give some edge to the Clippers down the stretch due to Chris Paul, I see Memphis being much more competitive tonight than the current spread line is predicting. Therefore, I'll be taking the Grizzlies in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719 Memphis Grizzlies (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/22: Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets

NBA - 717 Chicago Bulls @ 718 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: Brooklyn by 8 points

Brooklyn crushed Chicago in the first game of the series and even though I had taken them on the spread, even I didn't expect them to win that game so easily. I mentioned two key factors that favored the Nets on this matchup and both were very evident on Game 1 and will continue being evident throughout the series: Deron Williams and Brook Lopez! Offensively, Deron Williams just crushed Kirk Hinrich on this individual matchup. When coach Thibodeau put Nate Robinson on the floor, Thibodeau quickly had to remove him from the game, as Deron would just attack him down low time and time again for some easy layups. Then, Thibodeau switched and put Jimmy Butler defending Deron and so, instead of attacking the basket, he would pass the ball to Gerald Wallace on the block who was being guarded by... Kick Hinrich!

Brook Lopez also dominated the Game 1 of this series. Joakim Noah is a warrior, but he is super limited right now. Nazr Mohammed is no match for Brook Lopez, while Carlos Boozer and Taj Gibson are undersized to guard Lopez. When the Bulls played small ball with Luol Deng at the PF position, they improved on offense, but they kept getting destroyed on defense. Thibodeau has the tough decision of choosing between sacrificing defense or offense, but in both cases the Nets will still have the edge. One good way to limit the Nets is to make Deron Williams and Brook Lopez work hard on defense, but even on this area the Nets are fine on this matchup, as Chicago doesn't have offensive weapons on these two particular positions, as Derrick Rose is still out, while Joakim Noah is literally playing on one foot right now.

For tonight's game, I expect Chicago to play with more intensity and defend a little better down low, as Brooklyn had 20-24 FG at the rim and 8-12 FG from 3-9 feet on Game 1, but it won't be still enough because the position edge that Brooklyn has in Brook Lopez on this matchup is huge, while their remaining players are very confident right now, including Gerald Wallace who has regained his self-trust. On the other side, Carlos Boozer had a huge game in the first contest of this series, as he was on fire on his mid-range jumpers with 2-3 FG from 3-9 feet, 2-2 FG from 10-15 feet and even 3-4 FG from 16-23 feet. He is currently the only reliable offensive player of the Bulls, but he was still incredibly efficient on Game 1. Chicago has been struggling the whole season on their outside shooting, as they don't have a lot of good shooters on their roster. They need to get offensive rebounds and attack the basket to be remotely efficient on the offensive end, but Brooklyn's inside size is a bad matchup for them. Therefore, I expect another easy win for the Nets in here and so, I'll be taking them once again tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 718 Brooklyn Nets (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 04/22: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

MLB - 971 Seattle Mariners @ 972 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: F. Hernandez vs B. Peacock)

On his first four starts of the season, Felix Hernandez has already faced three offensive teams in Oakland, Texas and Detroit. On his last outing against the Tigers, he was simply phenomenal with a 12/0 K/BB ratio and his advanced numbers show his great performance: 0.00 ERA, 0.03 FIP and 0.38 xFIP! He will have a favorable matchup tonight against the little hitting Astros, where only two players have previous AB's against Hernandez for a combined of 2-20 .100 BA!

On the other side, I expect the Mariners's offense to wake up tonight. Brad Peacock didn't impress on his first three starts, with a 15/7 K/BB ratio that didn't impress anybody and this is why he is yet to reach the 6th inning on an outing this season. His 60% FB% rate is also worrying, as it makes him homerun prone, something problematic against Seattle's power lineup. There is also the fact that he has already pitched against the Mariners this season, where he had a lucky outing with a 5.40 ERA, 8.23 FIP and 5.55 xFIP! This time, I expect the Mariners to pound him, while Felix will dominate, allowing Seattle to have an easy win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Seattle Mariners RL -1 (w/ F. Hernandez) @ -137 / 1.73 on 5Dimes