MLB Free Premium Play 08/31

MLB Pick: 951 Philadelphia Phillies @ 952 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: A. Burnett vs. D. Gee)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 951 Philadelphia Phillies ML @ +110 / 2.10 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

My fair line for this contest is the Phillies being slight favorites, so we are getting some value w/ PHI IMO.

PHI’s SP A. Burnett has been highly inconsistent in this season. After a rough 4-starts stretch, he looked decent against the Mariners even though he allowed 5 ER’s in that start. However, his 9 K’s mark was a good sign for the future, and indeed he dominated on his last start vs. good WAS lineup w/ 7 strong innings in which he allowed just 1 ER and had a great 12/1 K/BB mark.

He already has faced the Mets 3 different times this season and struggled mightily in every start (he allowed 5, 7 & 5 ER’s in those starts), so I’m expecting him to have some revenge in this matchup today and perform quite well against this NYM lineup that is struggling to score runs lately - I have them being dead last (#30) in L7 days in the league.

On the other end, NYM’s SP Dilon Gee has been on my “fade list” radar in this second half of season. His 5.14 FIP & 4.45 xFIP numbers in 2nd half is a good indicator of how poorly he has pitched lately. His poor 1.79 K/BB ratio is another poor sign for him. PHI current roster is batting .296 BA & .890 OPS!

Unlike NYM’s offense, PHI’s offense has been decent lately while facing some of the best pitchers in the league. Yesterday, they faced the red-hot B. Colon and still, they pounded him w/ 6 runs! With Pitching & offensive edges, I’m taking the Phillies today!

Daily Message 08/31

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 137-115 ATS | +54.9 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 137-115 ATS | +18.6 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 11-12 ATS | -14.7 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 11-12 ATS | -5.7 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Colorado ML WIN

Minnesota ML LOSS

Over CWS/DET 9.5 WIN

Houston ML WIN

Washington ML WIN

Yesterday's Soccer Recap Plays:

Stoke City (+2) WIN

Over QPR/Sunderland 2  LOSS

Swansea City (-0.5) WIN

Newcastle (-0.5) LOSS

Chelsea (-0.25) WIN

Daily Message: 

After three consecutive subpar days in the MLB to start the week, we bounced back pretty strong in this last 2 days to recover our losses and even add some units to our season record. We set a new season high of profits for the season in the MLB and I'm looking forward to end the month in a high note.

We are now 102-76 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +24.8 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +68.7 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +100 / 2.00, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

In Soccer, we are coming from a profitable card as well by going 3-2 ATS in our plays. It could have been a spectacular day but we lost our play w/ Newcastle in the last minute of the game (95th). For today I have released 2 Soccer plays (both start @8:30 AM EST / 2:30PM CET). 

 
As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 08/30

MLB Pick #1: 911 Colorado Rockies @ 912 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: T. Matzek vs. V. Nuno)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 911 Colorado Rockies ML @ +132 / 2.32 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #2: 921 Detroit Tigers @ 922 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: K. Ryan vs. C. Bassitt)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 9.5 @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #3: 923 Minnesota Twins @ 924 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: K. Gibson vs. C. Tillman)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 923 Minnesota Twins ML @ +155 / 2.55 on Betonline

MLB Pick #4 929 Texas Rangers @ 930 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: R. Ross vs. S. Feldman)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 930 Houston Astros ML @ -117 / 1.85 on Bookmaker

MLB Pick #5: 933 Washington Nationals @ 934 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: S. Strasburg vs. R. Elias)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 933 Washington Nationals ML @ -107 / 1.93 on 5 Dimes

Soccer Premium Card 08/30

Soccer Pick #1: Manchester City vs. Stoke City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Stoke City (+2) @ -122 / 1.82 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -124 / 1.81 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I understand that Man City is almost unbeatable at home and they are coming from a great cynical display against Liverpool this past Monday. However I feel that this is a letdown spot for them after their tremendous effort in that game and more importantly, I expect Stoke City to be a tough tactical matchup for them.

Stoke City has a “poor” start of the season w/ one home loss vs. A. Villa and a late draw @Hull City in the last week. In both games, Stoke City faced two teams w/ conservative mindsets. Aston Villa was looking to get a 0-0 draw and after they scored their goal, they closed their defensive line. While last week, Hull City played w/ 10 men early on, scored one goal late in the first half and obviously, they wanted to hold the lead. As improved as Stoke City looks on the paper, they don’t have the proper talent on the front to dismantle packed defensive lines.

This won’t happen today vs. Man City as City will charge on the front since the start. Stoke City’s good tactical organization will make City work hard in here. In the last season, Stoke lost only 0-1 @Man City, so I expect a narrow win from City today.

Soccer Free Premium Play: 08/30

Soccer Pick: Swansea City vs. W.B.A.

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Swansea City (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -116 / 1.86 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I expect W.B.A. to have a similar approach as of the last week’s game @Southampton: conservative mindset, gave the ball possession to the opponent (Saints had 58% ball poss. in that game) and try to make danger w/ quick counter attacks using the speed of Ideye on the front.

That plan “worked” as W.B.A. got a point so I would be surprised if suddenly they bring a pro-active game plan for this contest.

Swansea City has been a nice surprise in this season w/ 2 wins in the first 2 games. Note that I was not impressed w/ their second half performance against Burnley in the last week as Burnley could easily tied the game w/ better finishing on the front. The difference between Swansea and Southampton is that the Welsh side has a better offensive flow right now. They attack from both wings, they have a pure striker on the front in Bony and Sigurdsson is looking great playing behind him. While Southampton struggled to create build ups plays vs. packed W.B.A. defensive line, I think that Swansea’s well oiled offensive machine won’t have such problems and will win this contest.

MLB Premium Card 08/29

MLB Pick #1: 957 Chicago Cubs @ 958 St. Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: K Hendricks vs. S. Miller)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7.5 @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline

MLB Pick #2: 961 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 962 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: D. Haren vs. A. Cashner)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 961 Los Angeles Dodgers ML @ -101 / 1.99 on Bookmaker

MLB Pick #3: 963 Milwaukee Brewers @ 964 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: W. Peralta vs. R. Vogelsong)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 08/27

MLB Pick #2: 953 Washington Nationals @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister K. Kendrick)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 953 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Nationals are hoping to avoid being swept by the Phillies, so I expect them to be focused in this contest. They will send RHP Doug Fister to the mound who is also looking for a bounce back after having his worst performance for a while on his last start vs. SF.

He allowed 4 ER’s but the biggest damage came via 2 HR’s! Still, he has been phenomenal in this second half of season that a bounce back is the most predictable outcome, especially if we take in account that he had already 2 quality starts against this PHI team this season.

On the other end, PHI’s SP Kyle Kendrick is having a subpar second half season w/ subpar 5.26 FIP & 4.93 xFIP numbers and a poor 1.58 K/BB ratio to show. His only decent start in this second half was against HOU – a poor team hitting vs. RHP’s this season, he struggled in all the others 5 starts! The Nationals already faced him twice this season, and in both starts, Kendrick struggled by allowing 5 & 4 ER’s.

I think that Fister is going to "outpitch" Kendrick while WAS is finally having a decent offensive performance after struggling to reach both Burnett and Hamels.

MLB Free Premium Play #2 08/27

MLB Pick: 963 Colorado Rockies @ 964 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: F. Morales vs. T. Hudson)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7 @ -105 / 1.95 on Boomaker

Detailed Write Up:

My fair line for this contest is a 7.5/8 runs, so we are getting some edge at this 7-runs total line.

I understand that the first 2 contests of this series went bellow the total posted but I think that both matchups will dictate a high scoring game.

The Giants are hitting relatively well vs. LHP’s lately w/ .319 BA in L10 games while they are ranked in a respectable #8 spot for the season.

We won a play w/ MIA by fading COL’s SP Franklin Morales:

“I’m fading COL’s SP F. Morales because he has been simply awful for quite some time! His 5.32 FIP & 5.31 xFIP numbers in the second half of season says it all along w/ a truly terrible 12.7% BB% rate! MIA lineup has been more patient lately by being ranked #3 in the league in BB% w/ 9.3%. I expect them to put some runs in the score.”

He didn’t “disappoint” us as he allowed 6 ER’s in just 4  IP’s of work! He is on my fade list alert, so I’m just keeping riding the bus.

On the other side, SF’s SP Tim Hudson is a bit of a slump in the second half of season. His 4.41 FIP & 4.17 xFIP numbers says it all, especially when we compare with his 1st half numbers: 3.19 FIP & 3.35 xFIP! His command has been poor lately w/ only 11 K’s on his L5 starts and therefore, I think that even the dreadful COL lineup (on the road obviously) could get some production in this matchup.

MLB Free Premium Play 08/27

MLB Free Pick #1: 965 Texas Rangers @ 966 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: C. Lewis vs. E. Ramirez)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

My fair line for this contest is 8-runs so we are getting some value in my opinion w/ OVER @ plus money. This series has been a low scoring one w/ the first 2 games going bellow the total posted, but I think that both offenses will have some edge vs. SP’s in this matchup.

TEX SP’s Colby Lewis has been ultra inconsistent lately w/ some high pitch count numbers on his L3 starts. His problems vs. LH batters this season are well noticed as he is allowing LH bats to have .352 BA + .406 wOBA against him! Now, here’s SEA lineup for today:

1. Austin Jackson (R) CF

2. Dustin Ackley (L) LF

3. Robinson Cano (L) DH

4. Kendrys Morales (S) 1B

5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B

6. Mike Zunino (R) C

7. Logan Morrison (L) RF

8. Chris Taylor (R) SS

9. Brad Miller (L) 2B

6 LH batters on the lineup! This SEA lineup is a bad matchup for him and no wonder, Lewis had some problems vs. SEA on his 3 starts against them this season by allowing 5, 3 & 4 ER’s!

On the other side, SEA will send Erasmo Ramirez to the mound and he is basically just filling a spot for them to give some rest to SEA’s elite SP’s. Ramirez’ numbers in this season aren’t that good w/ 4.06 ERA, 5.15 FIP & 4.67 xFIP! TEX struggled in the first 2 games of the series because they have faced 2 young LHP’s who are pitching well lately in Elias and Paxton. The same cannot be said about Ramirez and therefore, I also expect them to put some runs in the scoreboard in this contest.

Daily Message 08/27

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 127-108 ATS | +46.4 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 126-106 ATS | +15.8 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 8-10 ATS | -16.4 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 8-10 ATS | -6.2 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Atlanta RL-1.5 LOSS

Arizona ML LOSS

LA Angels RL-1.5 WIN

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Porto (-0.5) WIN

Celtic (-1) LOSS

Daily Message: 

These last 2 days weren’t particularly good as we went 1-2 ATS in both days in the MLB. We are looking (as usual) for some high priced underdogs or aggressive RL’s so, this is prone to happen during the course of the regular season. What we need to do is to keep using the same successful formula and we’ll be fine!

We are now 92-69 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +22.0 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +60.2 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +100 / 2.00, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 08/26

MLB Pick #1: 905 Atlanta Braves @ 906 New York Mets 

(Starting Pitchers: A. Wood vs. D. Gee)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 905 Atlanta Braves RL-1.5 @ +115 / 2.15 on Bookmaker

MLB Pick #2: 909 Los Angels Dodgers @ 910 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: R. Hernandez vs. T. Cahill)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 910 Arizona Diamondbacks ML @ +102 / 2.02 on Bookmaker

MLB Pick #3: 929 Miami Marlins @ 930 Los Angels Angels

(Starting Pitchers: N. Eovaldi vs. M. Shoemaker)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 930 Los Angels Angels RL-1.5 @ +115 / 2.15 on Betonline

Soccer Premium Card 08/26

Soccer Pick #1: Champions League - Porto vs. Lille

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Porto (-0.5) @ -114 / 1.87 on Betonline

Soccer Pick #2: Champions League - Celtic vs. Maribor

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Celtic (-1) @ +108 / 2.08 on Pinnacle Sports (OR +105 / 2.05 on Betonline)

Daily Message 08/26

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 126-106 ATS | +48.9 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 126-106 ATS | +16.6 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 7-9 ATS | -16.4 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 7-9 ATS | -6.2 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Pittsburgh ML LOSS

San Diego ML LOSS

NY Yankees ML WIN

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a subpar night in which we went 1-3 ATS in our plays. We cashed a nice play w/ the Yankees and watched the Pirates wasting a solid performance from Francisco Liriano. They had some many chances to put the game away early that eventually it came back against them late in the game. Our Padres play really didn’t have a chance.

We are now 91-67 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +22.8 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +62.7 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +100 / 2.00, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 08/25

MLB Pick #1: 953 St. Louis Cardinals @ 954 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs. F. Liriano)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 954 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ -138 / 1.72 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

We’ve lost one play backing up Francisco Liriano on his last start in which he was completely pounded by the Braves at home by allowing 7 ER’s in just 4 innings of work. However, we have to take in account that ATL is a pretty good offense vs. LHP (ranked #4 in the league) and they really put huge pressure on Liriano. I think that this awful start was an isolated case because Liriano was super sharp for quite some time. STL’s offense isn’t that dangerous vs. ATL so, I expect him to bounce back.

On the other end, STL’s SP John Lackey is struggle a bit lately w/ 4.57 FIP + 4.08 xFIP in this second half of season. I have to give some props to him because he was decent on his last start by allowing 2 ER’s in 6 IP’s while having a nice 7/1 K/BB ratio to show. However, I just can’t ignore that he faced the Reds in that start – the worst offensive team in the league lately, so he enjoyed a nice favorable matchup. This won’t happen today against the #3 ranked offense in the league vs. RHP’s and therefore, I expect some regression from him tonight.

MLB Pick #2: 955 Milwaukee Brewers @ 956 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs. E. Stults)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 956 San Diego Padres ML @ +122 / 2.22 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Padres have been probably the most underrated team in this second half of season. We’ve won our play yesterday @ARI, and I’m going to play them today as well.

They will send LHP Eric Stults to the mound and Stults (like their offense) has been terrific lately! His 3.30 FIP & 3.94 xFIP numbers during this month (4 starts) are decent and please note that 3 of thos starts were against decent offensive team batting vs. LHP’s: ATL ranked #4, STL #10 & LAD #15, still he was decent in every game!

On the other end, MIL’s SP Kyle Lohse returns to action after dealing w/ a bad ankle. He is clearly struggling lately w/ 5.07 FIP & 5.07 xFIP in this second half and this Padres’ offense aren’t anymore a dreadful unit – I have them being ranked #4 in this second half of season! Having the chance to get SD @ plus money at home is a valuable proposition for me!

MLB Pick #2: 965 New York Yankees @ 966 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: M. Pineda vs. J. Shields)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 965 New York Yankees ML @ +126 / 2.26 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

I think that we are getting some nice value w/ the Yankees at this current price @ +120’s / 2.20’s.

I understand that the Royals have been red hot in this second half of season but the Yankees are coming for this contest w/ a nice streak of 4 consecutive wins, so they have some momentum with them as well.

NYY’s SP Michael Pineda has made 2 starts since coming off the DL and he was sharp in both of them vs. BAL & HOU. His pitch count was fairly decent and KC’s bats don’t have much knowledge about him, they have only 36 collective AB’s against him for .194 BA & .590 OPS! Pineda has the “surprise factor” working for him in this particular matchup! KC’s SP James Shields has been also pretty good lately, but I don’t think that he has “that much” edge over Pineda in this matchup and therefore, I’m taking the Underdogs in here.

MLB Free Premium Play 08/25

MLB Free Pick: 955 Milwaukee Brewers @ 956 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs. E. Stults)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 956 San Diego Padres ML @ +122 / 2.22 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Padres have been probably the most underrated team in this second half of season. We’ve won our play yesterday @ARI, and I’m going to play them today as well.

They will send LHP Eric Stults to the mound and Stults (like their offense) has been terrific lately! His 3.30 FIP & 3.94 xFIP numbers during this month (4 starts) are decent and please note that 3 of thos starts were against decent offensive team batting vs. LHP’s: ATL ranked #4, STL #10 & LAD #15, still he was decent in every game!

On the other end, MIL’s SP Kyle Lohse returns to action after dealing w/ a bad ankle. He is clearly struggling lately w/ 5.07 FIP & 5.07 xFIP in this second half and this Padres’ offense aren’t anymore a dreadful unit – I have them being ranked #4 in this second half of season! Having the chance to get SD @ plus money at home is a valuable proposition for me!

Daily Message 08/25

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 125-104 ATS | +52.3 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 125-104 ATS | +17.8 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 7-9 ATS | -16.4 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 7-9 ATS | -6.2 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

San Diego ML WIN

Over COL/MIA 10.5 WIN

NY Mets ML WIN

Yesterday's Soccer Recap Plays:

QPR +1.25 LOSS

Stoke City +0.25 Half WIN

Daily Message: 

We swept the board last night in the MLB by going 3-0 ATS in our plays. We have now reached the 50-units mark of profit for the season for a new season high +52.3 units of profit. I remember that we started the season not in a good fashion w/ a low mark of -24.2 accumulated units in June, 7th so this has been a good turnaround since then. Once again guys… “this is a marathon, not a sprint!”

We are now 90-65 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +23.9 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +66.0 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +100 / 2.00, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

In Soccer, we didn’t have a good weekend at all! It has been a rough start for us, but I’m fairly confident that he will bounce back pretty strong in the future as I’ have full confidence in my ability. We just need to make some adjustments and we’ll be fine!

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 08/24

MLB Pick #1: 909 New York Mets @ 910 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: B. Colon vs. K. Correia)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 909 New York Mets ML @ +110 / 2.10 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

I think we have some value w/ NYM as long as they are listed as underdogs in this contest.

This is an emotional spot for NYM’s SP Bartolo Colon who will head to the Dominican Republic following the game for his mother’s funeral. Colon has been pretty decent for quite some time w/ his only bad performance being vs. SF. A game that I remember pretty well because we faded him after his 121-pitches performance in the previous outing – a clear letdown spot for him! He is “rested” for today and this current LAD roster doesn’t have many AB’s against him, actually, the last time he has faced LAD was in…2006!

On the other end, LAD’s SP Kevin Correia enjoyed a nice debut w/ LAD uniform @ATL but he then failed to deliver a quality outing vs. SD at home by allowing 4 ER’s in just 5 IP’s. This is what we will get from Correia! I don’t think that he is going to hang around w/ Colon and therefore, I’m taking the Mets today.      

Soccer English Premier League Premium Card 08/24

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Hull City vs. Stoke City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Stoke City (+0.25) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

It looks like we have to start once again from behind in a new sports season… It happened w/ the NBA, NFL and more recently w/ the MLB, and we were able to grind back pretty strong and finish the season way ahead. Hopefully it will happen w/ this Soccer season as well!

For this contest, I’m riding once again Stoke City as long this +0.25 is available @ decent price.

I’ve made some notes about Stoke City in their inaugural game vs. Aston Villa:

“We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.”

I think that they will be pretty comfortable playing on the road this season as their possession oriented style suits them well in controlling the flow of the game – they were an underrated good road team last season having lost only two games since February and those were at Manchester City and Chelsea.

Hull City was able to defeat QPR in the first game in a game that they were a bit lucky as QPR missed several good chances including a penalty kick. Both teams used a similar 3-5-2 formation and the superior “experience” of Hull City prevailed in the game. However, even though they were playing w/ a conservative mindset after grabbing the lead, Hull City still conceded plenty of chances to QPR.

This contest will be a fairly contested affair w/ both teams having a pro-active approach and in my opinion, both teams have the same chances of winning the game.

MLB Premium Card 08/23

MLB Pick #2: 951 San Francisco Giants @ 952 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Lincecum vs. J. Zimmermann)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 952 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 @ +120 / 2.20 on betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Nationals needed a wakeup call last night after winning 10 consecutive games – the majority of them were from walk-off wins, so they were feeling super confident going forward for yesterday’s game vs. SF.

Now that the streak is gone, I expect them to be more focused for today. More importantly, I expect them to be ready to take advantage of Tim Lincecum’s recent struggles. Lincecum has an awful 5.02 FIP mark & 10.0% BB% mark in this second half of season. He has 11 walks in his L4 starts and WAS lineup has a good batting history against them in the past: in 126 AB’s against them, they have .294 BA & .897 OPS! I’m fading him on this spot!

On the other end, WAS’s SP Jordan Zimmermann has been solid for quite some time. He has an excellent 2.92 FIP & 3.15 xFIP numbers in this second half of season and I expect him to be decent in here.

MLB Pick #3: 955 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 956 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: E. Volquez vs. W. Peralta)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 955 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ +123 / 2.23 on 5 Dimes

I have the Brewers as a slight favorite on my Power Rankings and therefore, we are getting some value w/ Pittsburgh at this +120 / 2.20’s odds.

PIT’s SP Volquez has been decent lately. His L2 starts were against DET & WAS – two tough matchups and still, Volquez was pretty good in those games. Poor command has been the biggest problem for him and fortunately, he will face a MIL lineup that doesn’t have much patience: they are ranked just #25 in BB% this season w/ 6.7% BB% mark (and #21 in L30 days w/ 7.1% BB%).

On the other end, MIL’s SP W. Peralta bounced back on his last start @LAD (we’ve lost a play against him) but still, he keeps struggling w/ his command! He walked 3 batters and has a poor 9.4% BB% rate in this second half of season. His problems basically are the same as of Volquez. However, the Pirates have a patient lineup: they are ranked #5 in the league in BB% rate w/ 8.6%! A. McCutchen is finally gaining a nice rhythm since coming off an injury and we must not forget that PIT is the second best offensive team in the league vs. RHP’s! They should be such underdogs in this contest!

English Premier League Premium Card Round 2 08/23

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Newcastle (+0.25) @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

(Note that this contest is going to be played @7:45 AM EST / 1:45PM CET!)

We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.

The problem is that by playing at home, Villa are “pressured” to use a more offensive style – something that they tend to struggle especially without their two top forwards in Benteke and Libor Kozák.

Newcastle United was a nice surprise against the champions Man City. They lost 0-2 but they were not that far from squeezing a draw in that game. Their new signings (especially Cabella and Riviere) were dynamic and Newcastle showed some great speed on the front w/ their mobile forwards. Like Villa did in Round 1 against Stoke City, Newcastle can be pretty dangerous on the counter. Villa didn’t concede much space on the back vs. Stoke City, but by playing at home in front of their fans, they will use a more offensive style and therefore, Newcastle will enjoy some space after recovering the ball.

Aston Villa struggled badly at home in the last season and by using the same exact style of play, I wouldn’t be surprised if those home struggles carry on for this new season.

Newcastle (PK) has some value but I like more the +0.25 AH line as long as the line is “better”  than -135 / 1.71, so I’m taking the visitors in this contest.

Soccer Pick #2: Premier League - Leicester City @ Chelsea

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Chelsea (-1.75) @ -121 / 1.83 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -123 / 1.81 on Betonline)

Detailed write up:

Chelsea looked completely dominant in the first half against Burnley, even though they suffered an early goal. As usual, they pressured high on the pitch but this time around, they had the proper offensive flair that was lacking in the last season via the “Fabregas” factor.

Fabregas’ skilled passes made the ultimate difference in that game! Chelsea struggled last season against the lower level competition because they lacked the proper creativity to open up games vs. packed defenses. Oscar was a factor early on the season but he completely disappeared on the second half of season.

In a typical Jose Mourinho style, once Chelsea scored their third goal, they were focused in controlling the game without spending much energy, so the rest of the match was “boring” to say the least.

In this first home match of the season, I think that Mourinho wants to put a show in front of his fans. I just can’t see Chelsea’s being happy to hold a one-goal lead through the entire second half!

We cashed w/ Leicester City in their first game vs. Everton as they scored a late goal to tie the game 2-2. Their coach made some nice tactical adjustments in the second half after being completely outplayed in the first half. Nevertheless, Everton was the better team in that game as Leicester is still adjusting to the Premier League.

Soccer Pick #3: Premier League - W.B.A @ Southampton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Southampton (-0.5) @ -116 / 1.86 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on Betonline)

Detailed write up:

I’m fading once again West Brom in this round after going against them in their first game vs. Sunderland.

They draw 2-2 in that game and I must say that I wasn’t impressed w/ their performance. Actually, they scored the first goal via a non-existent penalty kick and globally, they looked to me a prime candidate to be relegated in this season.

I can’t say the same about Southampton as they looked pretty good against Liverpool. With innumerous departures and some others signings, I thought that they would need some time to find a proper chemistry between them but I wrong as they looked sharp in some moments of the game. Actually, they could have easily grabbed one point from Anfield.

With such advanced team chemistry displayed in their first official game of the season, I expect them to cruise past W.B.A. today.

Soccer Pick #4: Premier League - Burnley @ Swansea City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Both Teams To Score @ -119 / 1.84 on Pinnacle Sports 

Detailed write up:

Swansea City was the major highlight of the first round by knocking down Man Utd on the road. It wasn’t a complete surprise for me because I expected them to do some damage offensively as they really have some nice talent on the front!

They held Man Utd to just one goal but I think that it was more about United’s lack of offensive flow especially from the wings than exactly Swansea being a top defensive team.

My notes about them in that game didn’t change for this contest:

“The Welsh side made a decent pre-season and they look more dangerous on the front than exactly having a stronger defense. I expect them to struggle defensively early on the season as they lost some key defensive players in this offseason like Vorm, Ben Davis and more recently Chico Flores.”

One thing I liked about Burnley in their game vs. Chelsea was that they have some courage. They didn’t “park the bus” against one of the best EPL teams, they wanted to play a fair game and obviously, I expect them to have the same approach against this inferior class opponent.

This will be a fun game to watch, a open game and therefore, I expect both teams to score at least one goal.

Soccer Pick #5: Premier League - Arsenal @ Everton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ -102 / 1.98 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

Arsenal's starting lineup won't feature a traditional striker as both Sonogo & Giroud were relegated to the bench. Wenger will try to control the game in the midfield and this is not a good start for a potential high scoring game. Arsenal plays a pivotal game vs. Besiktas in this midweek and so, I expect them to control the game by playing in a possession slow-tempo oriented football. 

MLB Free Premium Play 08/23

MLB Pick #1: 981 Baltimore Orioles @ 982 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs. K. Hendricks)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 981 Baltimore Orioles ML @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

BAL’s SP Bud Norris has been great lately w/ a nice run of 4 straight quality outings. Note that he faced some tough matchups in those starts like LAA, TOR & CWS – all dangerous lineups and still he looked pretty good.

His K% numbers have been excellent in this second half of season w/ 22.4% K% mark vs. 16.5% in this second half of season and this is good news for him because CHC lineup has been a “K machine” for quite some time – I have them ranked dead last (#30) in the league in L30 days w/ an abysmal 26.0% K% mark!

BAL will face K. Hendricks who has been pretty good as well. However his advanced numbers are screaming for some regression as his 1.66 ERA does not match his 3.54 FIP & 3.85 xFIP numbers!  BAL offense was shut down by J. Arrieta last night and they are looking to bounce back today – they are ranked #6 in L14 days, so I expect them to do some damage in here.

Daily Message 08/23

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 120-102 ATS | +42.7 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 120-102 ATS | +14.6 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 4-5 ATS | -6.9 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 4-5 ATS | -3.1 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Miami ML WIN

Over ARI/SD 8.5 Double Dime LOSS

Cleveland RL-1.5 LOSS

Seattle RL-1.5 WIN

Daily Message: 

We ended last night w/ a subpar 2-2 ATS for the day losing our Top Play w/ OVER ARI/SD. That game started well for us w/ 4 runs scored in the first 2 innings but then, the bats went cold w/ 5 entire innings without a single run scored.

We are now 85-63 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +20.7 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +56.5 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +101 / 2.01, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

English Premier league Round 2 Update: 4 plays were released for this Saturday!

- 7:45AM EST: FREE Premium Play A. Villa vs. Newcastle
- 10AM EST: 3 Premium Plays added
- 12:30PM EST: We might have one play for the Everton vs. Arsenal game, check back @12PM EST!

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

Soccer Free Premium Play 08/23: Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Newcastle (+0.25) @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

(Note that this contest is going to be played @7:45 AM EST / 1:45PM CET!)

We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.

The problem is that by playing at home, Villa are “pressured” to use a more offensive style – something that they tend to struggle especially without their two top forwards in Benteke and Libor Kozák.

Newcastle United was a nice surprise against the champions Man City. They lost 0-2 but they were not that far from squeezing a draw in that game. Their new signings (especially Cabella and Riviere) were dynamic and Newcastle showed some great speed on the front w/ their mobile forwards. Like Villa did in Round 1 against Stoke City, Newcastle can be pretty dangerous on the counter. Villa didn’t concede much space on the back vs. Stoke City, but by playing at home in front of their fans, they will use a more offensive style and therefore, Newcastle will enjoy some space after recovering the ball.

Aston Villa struggled badly at home in the last season and by using the same exact style of play, I wouldn’t be surprised if those home struggles carry on for this new season.

Newcastle (PK) has some value but I like more the +0.25 AH line as long as the line is “better”  than -135 / 1.71, so I’m taking the visitors in this contest.

MLB Premium Card 08/22

MLB Pick #1: 909 Miami Marlins @ 910 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: H. Alvarez vs. F. Morales)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 909 Miami Marlins ML @ -128 / 1.78 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

The Marlins have some chances to get a playoff spot via wild card and they really need to take care of games like this, so I expect them to be focused tonight.

They will send Henderson Alvarez to the mound. He was excellent on his first start after coming back off DL w/ 1 ER allowed in 7 IP’s while having a nice 1.29 ERA + 1.85 FIP + 2.38 xFIP stats line vs. ARI. His 6 K’s was his best mark since mid June! Pitching @COL is not easy but Alvarez has an elite groundball% rate of 54.6%, so this might help him avoid the HR threat.

I’m fading COL’s SP F. Morales because he has been simply awful for quite some time! His 5.32 FIP & 5.31 xFIP numbers in the second half of season says it all along w/ a truly terrible 12.7% BB% rate! MIA lineup has been more patient lately by being ranked #3 in the league in BB% w/ 9.3%. I expect them to put some runs in the score.

Note also that there is a 40/60% chance of raining in this contest, so this could end up being a bullpen’s battle and COL’s bullpen is the worst in the league = another potential edge for MIA!

MLB Free Premium Play 08/22

MLB Pick: 915 Houston Astros @ 916 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: B. Peacock vs. C. Carrasco)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 916 Cleveland Indians RL-1.5 @  +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

I’ve faded HOU’s Brad Peacock on his L2 starts, here’s what I’ve wrote on his last start against MIN:

“MIN is coming from a series vs. best team in the league in which they scored 5, 4 & 6 runs in the L3 games all vs. decent pitchers. For tonight, I expect them to make some damage vs. Brad Peacock who has a god awful 10.86 FIP & 7.18 xFIP to show in the second half of season!”

Surprisingly, he held the Twins to just 1 ER in 5 innings of work, but everything rest was mediocre! He needed 115 pitches to complete 5 IP’s for an obscene 23.0 P/IP mark. The 115 pitches mark was by some margin his season high and w/ just 4 days off for this contest, I expect him to tire a bit fast today. He is a fly ball pitcher w/ 40.3% FB% rate in this season and his 12.7% HR/FB rate isn’t help him at all – this could be is a tough combination for tonight @BOS w/ the winds blowing out to left field at 10-15 MPH!

Well, Peacock allowed 5 ER’s in just 4.1 IP’s w/ a subpar 3/2 K/BB & 2 HR’s allowed for an abysmal 9.13 FIP! CLE is ranked #2 vs. RHP’s this season, so I expect another rough start for Peacock.

I’ve ride Carlos Carrasco on his last start vs. BAL for a Top play w/ great success… Here’s what I’ve wrote about him:

“On the other side, CLE SP Carlos Carrasco was great on his last start @NYY:

ERA        FIP         xFIP
0.00       1.53       3.03

Between the bullpen and that last start, Carrasco has a 2.08 ERA since he was demoted in late April! I expect him to take advantage of this second chance to finish strong the season because his advanced numbers are supporting this potential good run from him.”

He was great! He held the potent BAL lineup to 7 scoreless innings w/ a nice 5/0 K/BB ratio! HOU lineup is dangerous against LHP’s but they struggle vs. RHP’s and therefore, I expect Carrasco to be decent tonight while CLE offense will score some runs.

Daily Message 08/22

Daily Message 08/22

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 118-100 ATS | +43.9 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 118-100 ATS | +15.7 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 4-5 ATS | -6.9 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 4-5 ATS | -3.1 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

NY Yankees RL-1.5 WIN

Under MIN/CLE 7 WIN

Over CIN/ATL 8 PUSH

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a pretty profitable day by going 2-0-1 ATS in our plays. It could have been a perfect 3-0 SWEEP but the Reds and the Braves failed to score a run in the last 4 innings of the ball game, so our Over 8 Play was a push.

We are now 83-61 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +21.8 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +57.7 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +101 / 2.01, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

The English Premier league Round 2 is right here and I’ll release the first plays for this weekend later today!

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 08/21

MLB Pick #1: 959 Houston Astros @ 960 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: D. Keuchel vs. B. McCaarthy)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 960 New York Yankees RL-1.5 @ +125 / 2.25 on Betonline

MLB Pick #1: 961 Cleveland Indians @ 962 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: D. Kluber vs. P. Hughes)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 7 @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

MLB Pick #3: 953 Atlanta Braves @ 954 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: J. Teheran vs. D. Holmberg)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 8 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

My fair line for this contest is 9-runs so we are getting some value w/ OVER in here.

ATL’s offense has been “red-hot” lately! I have them ranked #8 in the league in the L14 days and they are particularly good vs. Left-Handed Pitchers – they are ranked #6 in the league in this season. The last time they have faced a LHP it was Francisco Liriano, who was been fantastic (I had a play w/ him) just to be pounded by the Braves, allowing 7 ER’s in just 4 Innings!

For this contest, they will face CIN’s SP Holmberg who was knocked around for five runs on seven hits in just 2.2 IP’s against the Cubs in his debut. He was quickly demoted while his AAA numbers are subpar to say the least: 4.64 ERA and 1.66 WHIP! I expect ATL’s offense to do some damage!

On the other end, I’m fading ATL’s SP Julio Teheran as well in here! He “bounced back” on his last start vs. OAK after 2 consecutive bad outings but note that still, his numbers weren’t “that good” w/ bad command 1/3 K/BB and an awful 6.47 FIP + 6.39 xFIP marks!

After a terrible offensive stretch, CIN offense has been better later (the return of B. Phillips is a great help for them) by being ranked #20 in L7 days (they are dead last #30 for quite some time) and so, I expect them to score some runs as well vs. inconsistent Teheran.