MLB Premium Card 07/30

MLB - 959 Colorado Rockies @ 960 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: B. Anderson vs. T. Wood)

Play #4

Brett Anderson struggled in his first start after coming off the DL most likely due to the “rusty factor”, but since then, he made b2b quality outings against the Pirates. The last one was a particular impressive start if we take in account that he was pitching @COL against a team that he has faced a couple of days before. After 3 starts in July, he has a decent 3.02 FIP & 3.99 xFIP advanced stats line to show. He has yet to face the Cubs in his career, so I expect him to be decent tonight.

Eventually, the Rockies will win one road game and I think that they have a good matchup against Wood. Wood is coming from a start in which he logged 113 pitches, he had “just” 4 days off for today, so he might be tend to tire a bit fast in here. He has been struggling lately… Note that even though he had a respectable 3.60 ERA mark vs. STL in his last start, his 6.93 FIP mark is a bad sign for him.

With a strong starting pitching edge favoring the Rockies, I’m taking them @plus money as my Single Dime Play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ B. Anderson) @ +107 / 2.07 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 971 Los Angeles Angels @ 972 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: G. Richards vs. K. Gausman)

Play #5

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Garrett Richards has finally lost one decision in his last start against DET, but note that he didn’t made a subpar performance. In fact his 2.47 FIP & 3.94 xFIP numbers > 6.00 ERA number, we must not forget that he faced a potent DET offense and really, he only had one “bad inning” in which he allowed 3 ER’s. His 2.20 FIP & 2.53 xFIP numbers in this month are outstanding, so I expect him to naturally bounce back tonight!

On the other end, I expect the Angels to do some damage against BAL’s rookie SP. Kevin Gausman didn’t impress in his last 2 starts. His 3/3 K/BB ratio @ SEA isn’t a good sign while he was blasted by the A’s in the previous start. Actually, the last 2 times he has faced potent offenses (OAK & TB), Gausman struggled heavily. One factor that could decide this contest is related w/ the fact that Gausman is extremely “hittable” w/ hitters having a nice 0.270 BA mark against him. This bodes well for LAA offense that is ranked #3 in the league w/ 0.270 BA!

LAA is tired of losing against BAL, they had some great chances to win last night, so I expect them to be focused in here and win this contest.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 971 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ G. Richards) @ -132 / 1.76 on Betonline

MLB - 967 Chicago White Sox @ 968 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: H. Noesi vs. M. Scherzer)

Play #3

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

We cashed last night a nice ML play w/ CWS @ +150’s odds as they clearly had the better pitcher on the mound. However for tonight, the Tigers have “everything” working in their favor, and obviously, I expect a strong reaction from them.

They are 0-4 in the L4 games so they really need to bounce back…

They will throw Max Scherzer to the mound and I expect Scherzer to take care of the business. His 3.31 FIP & 3.18 xFIP numbers in this month are good but not great, but please note the level of his opponents in the month of July (Ranked teams vs. RHP’s in this season):

LAA #8
CLE #4
LAD #5
TB #12

Yes, all top teams! Only the Rays aren’t a top 10 offensive team vs. RHP’s using season numbers, but I have no doubts that they are a top team right now – ranked #4 in the L30 days! Still, Scherzer managed to give his team a chance to win those games. He already has made 3 starts vs. CWS this season w/ great numbers of 2, 0 & 0 ER’s allowed!

On the other end, one thing is to face an underrated Jose Quintana on the mound, another thing is to face Hector Noesi, and I expect the Tigers bats to do some damage tonight.

He is coming from 2 decent starts vs. MIN & HOU but note that his FIP numbers didn’t impress at all: 4.44 & 5.13! Also, MIN & HOU are far away from DET’s power offensive numbers. He has faced DET twice this season and allowed 4 ER’s in each start…

We have a pitching mismatch in here + Bounce Back spot + better offense = TRIPLE DIME PLAY w/ Detroit winning this contest with some ease!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 968 Detroit Tigers RL-1.5 (w/ M. Scherzer) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 07/30: New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers

MLB - 975 New York Yankees @ 976 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: H. Kuroda vs. C. Lewis)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

For those who have the Yankees last night: good luck! We almost had a heart attack watching the final inning of the game. For today, I think that NYY has a truly pitching edge and obviously, I’m taking them to win this contest.

I’m fading Colby Lewis in here. He faced NYY a couple of days ago and even though he allowed “just” 3 ER’s, his peripherals numbers were poor to say the least: 4.40 FIP, 5.99 xFIP & a 2/3 K/BB ratio. His numbers against LH batters are awful this season (and career as well) w/ .378 BA + .426 wOBA!

I’ve just checked NYY lineup for tonight:

1. Brett Gardner (L) LF

2. Derek Jeter (R) SS

3. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF

4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B

5. Carlos Beltran (S) DH

6. Chase Headley (S) 3B

7. Francisco Cervelli (R) C

8. Zoilo Almonte (S) RF

9. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B

NYY will put 6 batters hitting from the left side = tough matchup for Lewis in this b2b start against them!

On the other end, Kuroda has been decent as usual. I’ve ride him in his last start vs. TOR and he didn’t disappoint us. He didn’t dominate the Blue Jays lineup, but he keep them in check -  something not easy to do in these days as TOR is #1 ranked offense in the league in the L30 days!

I expect Kuroda to outpitch Lewis in here, while I hope that NYY’s bullpen is capable to hold a damn lead.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 975 New York Yankees ML (w/ H. Kuroda) @ -133 / 1.75 on Betonline

MLB Free Premium Play 07/30: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 955 Washington Nationals @ 956 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: T. Roark vs. B. Hand)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

I think that we are getting some value w/ WAS especially in the first 5IP’s of the game, as I expect Roark to “outpitch” Brad Hand. The Nationals lost the first 2 games of the series w/ both of them being decided late in the games, so there will be some sense of urgency from them today since the start.

T. Roark has been outstanding lately w/ 3 consecutive great starts in which he allowed 1ER in each game & a nice 17/2 K/BB ratio to show. MIA is ranked #29 in K% (23.3%) for the season and lately things haven’t change at all as MIA is ranked #25 w/ 23.8% in K% in the last 14 days. Roark has some nice K’s numbers w/ 7.07 K/9 in this month, so MIA is a good matchup for him.

On the other end, I’ve faded B. Hand in his last start (took the OVER) vs. HOU, but he performed quite well. Actually, his L2 starts were good vs. SF & HOU but these two teams are struggling offensively as of late. WAS is a top 10 offensive team vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #8 w/ .744 OPS.

While Hand might had the “factor surprise” working for him in those two starts, this won’t happen in here as WAS has already faced him twice this season w/ good results w/ 5 & 3 runs scored!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 First 5 IP's Washington Nationals (-0.5) (w/ T. Roark) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

MLB Free Premium Play 07/30: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds

MLB - 953 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 954 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs. A. Simon)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

Catching Wade Miley against this Reds offense @plus money is a valuable bet IMO, and I’m just pulling the trigger…

I’ve made a play w/ ARI in Miley’s last start that was lost (it wasn’t even close)!

“Wade Miley has been outstanding lately! His stats line in this month says it all: .194 BA / 2.20 FIP / 2.50 xFIP / 26.6% K% & 4.6% BB! Wow! Note that he has faced CHC, SF & ATL in his L3 starts and these 3 teams are pretty decent vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #5, #12 & #7, and still, Miley did pretty well against them! PHI offense is ranked just #23 and they are prone to be K’ed quite a lot (ranked #20 in the season w/ 21.1% K%), so I expect Miley to be decent tonight.”

Bad days happen and I expect him to bounce back today against a CIN offense that is ranked #22 OPS vs. LHP’s, is batting .186 BA  in L10 games vs. LHP’s and has a putrid mark of 25.7 K% - ranked #29 in the league!

On the other end, Alfredo Simon is primed to regress a bit in this season half, and this regression process has already started because he struggled in his L2 starts coming off the All Star break! His 2.86 ERA mark does not go well alongside w/ 4.06 SIERA / 4.33 FIP & 3.97 xFIP numbers!

I have Wade Miley way above Alfredo Simon in my Power Rankings, and w/ the way the Reds are struggling offensively lately, I’m taking the Diamondbacks in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ W. Miley) @ +107 / 2.07 on Betonline

Daily Message 07/30

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 64-53 ATS | +29.0 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 64-53 ATS | +12.6 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's Recap Plays:

Under MIA/WAS 7 WIN

Philadelphia ML WIN

Toronto ML WIN

Chicago White Sox ML WIN

LA Dodgers ML WIN

Parlay OAK ML x NYY ML Triple Dime WIN

Daily Message: 

We just couldn’t have a better card last night as we SWEPT the board by going 6-0 ATS for our best day of the season. Still it was a weird night because we won all our 5 Single Dime Plays quite easily (including CWS ML @ +154 / 2.54 odds), but we had to “sweat” quite a bit to win our Top Play Triple Dime Parlay Play w/ NYY & OAK ML’s… that’s the MLB…

This great day was just a valid confirmation of our uprising run since the All Star break.  Now that the Soccer World Cup is gone, I'll be focused in the MLB in the next two months. I have now more time (and data) to prepare games and obviously, this is why I had such low volume of plays in the first half of the season.

We are 30-14 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +17.7 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +42.70 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +101 / 2.01, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

Note also that I’ll make some important changes in my service in the near future w/ soccer being a main part of my handicapping process. I'm working and adjusting all my plan of work and soon, I'll make an announcement w/ my detailed plans. 

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 07/29

MLB - 903 Washington Nationals @ 904 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: S. Strasburg vs. H. Alvarez)

Play #1

I expect this contest to be a classic “pitcher’s duel” between Strasburg and Alvarez. Yesterday’s matchup ended w/ a MIA thriller win by 7-6 runs, but note that the game wasn’t a pure shootout at all. WAS did their biggest damage in a 5-runs 6th inning while MIA didn’t score a single run in the first 6 innings just to explode late in the game.

For today, WAS is throwing S. Strasburg to the mound and I expect him to be quite decent. Even though he has allowed 4ER’s in his last 2 starts vs. MIL & @COL, his advanced numbers were impeccable w/ 2.42 & 1.02 FIP! He is primed to bounce back tonight…

On the other end, Alvarez has been pretty consistent lately expect one bad outing @NYM. His grounders have been working and his command improved lately w/ just 3 walks in his L5 starts! He has faced WAS twice this season, and held them to just 1 ER allowed in 10.2 IP’s of work!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 7 (w/ S. Strasburg & H. Alvarez) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes

MLB Free Premium Play 07/29: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

MLB - 919 Chicago White Sox @ 920 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Quintana vs. A. Sanchez)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

I just can’t pass w/ the White Sox @ this current price w/ Quintana on the mound!

I had a play w/ him vs. KC but we lost it, certainly it was not because of his performance as he allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP’s of work. He has been simply brilliant lately w/ 2.95 FIP mark in June and 1.82 FIP in this month! I’m aware that the Tigers will be a tough matchup for him tonight, but I expect him to give his team a chance to win the game.

Note that we’ve ride w/ Sanchez in his last start @ARI:

“On the other end, Anibal Sanchez is coming from a strange outing vs. CLE in which he dominated in the first 6 IP’s just to implode in the 7th while giving up 4 ER’s. Nevertheless, his 7/1 K/BB ratio and 1.31 FIP & 1.94 xFIP numbers were good indicators for him. We must also not ignore the fact that CLE is a top 3 ranked team vs. RHP’s, so we have some good signs that Sanchez will bounce back today and be decent against this ARI offense.”

We won the play but he didn’t “bounce back” at all in that game: 11 hits, 5 ER’s & 4/1 K/BB ratio! He has now 3 subpar performances in his L4 starts, and IMO, Quintana is pitching clearly better right now.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Chicago White Sox ML (w/ J. Quintana) @ +154 / 2.54 on Betonline

MLB Free Premium Play 07/29: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

MLB - 905 Philadelphia Phillies @ 906 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: C. Hamels vs. D. Gee)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

We easily won w/ the Mets last night but truth be told, the Phillies had some great chances to score but failed to convert them, that’s why they produced just one run despite smacking 13 hits!!

For today, I think that we have another pitching mismatch, but this time, PHI has the edge!

Cole Hamels has been pretty sharp lately… his 19/1 K/BB ratio in his L2 starts is outstanding alongside w/ 0.99 & 1.39 FIP! He might be traded for a contender sooner or later, and obviously, he wants to “shine” in front of them. NYM is ranked #21 vs. LHP’s this season, so I expect him to be decent tonight.

On the other end, I’m fading once again D. Gee…

On my play w/ MIL against him I’ve wrote:

“MIL is feeling good right now after winning 3 straight contests vs. CIN. They will face NYM’s Dillon Gee who is primed for a regression in this 2nd half of season. His 2.92 ERA mark is great for the season but his 4.19 FIP / 4.00 xFIP / 4.04 SIERA stats line are telling us that he is way overrated! In his last start, he didn’t do well @SD as he allowed 4ER’s in just 5IP’s! Allowing 2 HR’s @SD is really a bad sign for him, and I expect a healthy MIL lineup to do some damage today.”

Well, he got crushed by allowing 6 ER’s in just 5IP’s! His Fastball speed (average) was the lowest in all season w/ 88.0 MPH! I expect PHI offense to do some damage. Note that they are hitting quite well lately by being ranked #6 in the league L7 days!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ C. Hamels) @ -117 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 07/29

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 58-53 ATS | +5.0 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's Recap Plays:

NY Mets ML & RL-1.5 Double Dime WIN

Daily Message: 

Yesterday’s card didn’t offer much value IMO but, we were able to grind out and find a valuable play w/ New York Mets. I really loved how the Mets would have a big pitching edge w/ Colon over Burnett and recommend the play as a Double Dime Play w/ a nice 25% stake w/ RL-1.5 @+165 odds! We are +7.7 units to show in the 2nd Half of season using 1-2-3MM system or +18.70 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Note that detailed write ups are now being included in all my plays so you can see the way I work in the MLB.

Now that the World Cup is gone, I'll be focused in the MLB in the next two and half months. I have now more time to prepare games and obviously, I'll start making detailed write ups for my plays. Note also that I’ll make some important changes in my service in the near future w/ soccer being a main part of my handicapping process. I'm working and adjusting all my plan of work and soon, I'll make an announcement w/ my detailed plans.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 07/28

MLB - 955 Philadelphia Phillies @ 956 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: A. Burnett vs. B. Colon)

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

In this contest, I’m primarily fading PHI’s SP AJ. Burnett as I expect Colon to “outpitch” him.

Burnett is coming from an outstanding performance against the Giants in his last in which he held SFG scoreless for 8IP’s! The problem was that he made 131 (!) pitches! With “just” 4 days off, I expect him to tire and struggle a bit tonight.

I’ve made a research this season when Burnett’s throw +110 pitches, what happened in the following start?

113 vs. LAA, 05/14, next start -> 05/20 @MIA      3ER’s allowed w/ 5.40 ERA & 4.13 FIP
116 vs. NYM 05/30, next start -> 06/04 @WAS    8ER’s allowed w/ 12.00 ERA & 6.30 FIP
111 @STL 06/20, next start -> 06/25 vs. MIA       3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 2.13 FIP
116 @MIA 07/01, next start -> 07/06 @PIT          3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 1.99 FIP

He didn’t fare well in those games…

On the other end, I think that Colon will be decent tonight. He simply dominated the Mariners in his last start w/ great stats line of 2.45 ERA + 2.18 FIP + 3.73 xFIP. Unlike Burnett, he went deep in the game but managed to throw “just” 101 pitches, so he will be “fresh” and ready to go.

Split the wager (75% ML + 25% RL-1.5)

Pick: 3 units (Double Dime Play) on 956 New York Mets ML (w/ B. Colon) @ -129 / 1.78 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 1 unit (Double Dime Play) on 956 New York Mets RL-1.5 (w/ B. Colon) @ +165 / 2.65 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 07/27

MLB - 907 St. Louis Cardinals @ 908 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: A. Wainwright vs. K. Hendricks)

Play #1

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 St. Louis Cardinals RL-1.5 (w/ A. Wainwright) @ +105 / 2.05 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 07/26

MLB - 971 Cleveland Indians @ 972 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: Z. McAllister vs. J. Guthrie)

Play #1

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ Z. McAllister) @ +102 / 2.02 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 07/25

MLB - 915 Toronto Blue Jays @ 916 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs. H. Kuroda)

Play #2

Both teams are pretty confident going for this contest, as both won their L3 games.

However, I think that the Yankees have a fundamental pitching edge tonight that will make the difference.

TOR’s SP M. Buehrle is primed for a natural regression in this second half as his 2.89 ERA mark is not sustainable w/ advanced numbers of 4.51 SIERA, 3.69 FIP & 4.29 xFIP. Actually, this regression has begun b/c he had 4.64 FIP in June and 3.51 in this month vs. 3.29 & 3.09 in the first 2 months. He made 2 starts vs. NYY in June and once again, his advanced numbers were way worst vs. ERA:

Game Logs numbers:

ERA        FIP         xFIP

06/24    5.40       6.14       4.33

06/18    3.00       4.98       4.50

On the other end, Kuroda has been solid as usual. He is giving the Yankees the chance to win their games, and right now, the Yankees have been extremely “clutch” when it matters in their games.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 916 New York Yankees ML (w/ H. Kuroda) @ -133 / 1.75 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 07/25: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies

MLB - 903 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 904 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs. K. Kendrick)

***FREE PREMIUM Play***

Wade Miley has been outstanding lately! His stats line in this month says it all: .194 BA / 2.20 FIP / 2.50 xFIP / 26.6% K% & 4.6% BB! Wow! Note that he has faced CHC, SF & ATL in his L3 starts and these 3 teams are pretty decent vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #5, #12 & #7, and still, Miley did pretty well against them! PHI offense is ranked just #23 and they are prone to be K’ed quite a lot (ranked #20 in the season w/ 21.1% K%), so I expect Miley to be decent tonight.

On the other end, K. Kendrick is clearly struggling and sooner or later, he will be demoted. He is coming from 3 consecutive awful starts and he will face an ARI offense that is batting pretty well in this second half of season: ranked #4 w/ .801 OPS! Note that despite facing two good SP’s in R. Porcello and A. Sanchez, ARI has scored 5 runs in each contest.

We have a tremendous pitching edge for ARI in this contest, while we are catching them w/ “hot bats” right now.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ W. Miley) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker

MLB Daily Message 07/25

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 52-47 ATS | +5.2 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's Recap Plays:

Milwaukee RL-1.5 WIN

Daily Message: 

Now that the World Cup is gone, I'll be focused in the MLB in the next two and half months. I have now more time to prepare games and obviously, I'll start making detailed write ups for my plays. Note also that I’ll make some important changes in my service in the near future w/ soccer being a main part of my handicapping process. I'm working and adjusting all my plan of work and soon, I'll make an announcement w/ my detailed plans.

Yesterday’s card didn’t offer much value IMO but, we were able to grind out and find a valuable play w/ Milwaukee’s Run Line @+140 that was an easy winner, as the Brewers crushed the Mets 9-1. We are 17-8 ATS in the second half of season and we are back to the profit zone for the season w/ +5.2 units (3-4-5un MM).  Detailed write ups are now being included in all my plays so you can see the way I work in the MLB.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 07/24

MLB - 957 New York Mets @ 958 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: D. Gee vs. M. Garza)

Play #1

I don’t like much today’s card but I think we have one play that I just can’t pass @+140 odds for the Run Line w/ MIL.

MIL is feeling good right now after winning 3 straight contests vs. CIN. They will face NYM’s Dillon Gee who is primed for a regression in this 2nd half of season. His 2.92 ERA mark is great for the season but his 4.19 FIP / 4.00 xFIP / 4.04 SIERA stats line are telling us that he is way overrated! In his last start, he didn’t do well @SD as he allowed 4ER’s in just 5IP’s! Allowing 2 HR’s @SD is really a bad sign for him, and I expect a healthy MIL lineup to do some damage today.

On the other side, I expect a strong bounce back performance from Matt Garza. I’ve faded him in his last start @WAS, but I really didn’t expect such epic meltdown from him: “In the shortest outing of his career, Garza was able to record just one out Saturday night as the Washington Nationals scored five times in the first inning”

It was a weird outing b/c Garza was coming from great b2b outings in which he allowed just 2 ER’s in 16.2 IP’s of work. The Mets had a nice offensive stretch early on the month, but they are clearly struggling right now. I have them dead last #30 in the league in L7 games and they didn’t reach the .200 BA’s mark in 4 of their L5 games, so this is a good spot for Garza to bounce back!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 Milwaukee Brewers RL-1.5 (w/ M. Garza) @ +140 / 2.40 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 07/23

MLB - 907 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 908 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: D. Haren vs. F. Liriano)

Play #4

Even though the Pirates are a bit “chalky” favorites in this contest, I think that we should have them favored in -150’s and therefore, I see enough value in them for tonight.

Dan Haren is clearly struggling… In June, he had a subpar 5.73 FIP mark to show, and already in this month, his 5.28 FIP & .457 wOBA numbers aren’t pretty at all! Let’s just say that the Padres’ offense didn’t have any problems to score against him twice (3 & 4 ER’s allowed in just 5.2 & 4.0 IP’s), so we can understand how badly he has been pitching. PIT is hitting well during this home span. Only LAD’s Ryu and COL’s Brett Anderson gave them some problems and the common factor between these two pitchers? Both are LHP’s where PIT is just ranked #28 (OPS) vs. LHP’s this season, so their problems were quite natural! This isn’t the case vs. RHP’s where PIT is ranked #6! I could see Haren giving up some runs tonight…

On the other end, PIT will send F. Liriano to the mound. Liriano struggled in his first start since he was activated from the DL against CIN in which he allowed 3 ER’s in 4.0 IP. Most likely, he was “rusty” because he bounced back in his last start vs. COL in which he held them scoreless in 5IP’s while having 8K’s.

His game log numbers were terrific:

ERA        FIP         xFIP
0.00       1.74       2.50

He will face a LAD lineup that is struggling vs. LHP lately w/ just .222 BA in L10 games. They are also ranked just #26 (OPS) vs. LHP this season, so we are getting a nice matchup advantage for the Pirates IMO and therefore, I’m taking them in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ F. Liriano) @ -132 / 1.76 on Betonline

MLB - 917 Boston Red Sox @ 918 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: C. Buchholz vs. R. Dickey)

Play #5

TOR answered pretty well last night after being stomped by the Red Sox in the first game of the series by winning the game 7-3. However, note that BOS had some good chances to make some damage as they had 11 hits but went only 1-9 w/ RISP. Their offense is for real: ranked #1 in the league in L14 days!

They will face tonight R.A. Dickey and I expect Dickey to have some problems. His advanced numbers are suggestion some regression for him w/ 3.95 ERA vs. 4.55 FIP & 4.21 xFIP! He is prone to give up some HR’s w/ 12.1% HR/FB ratio and his command isn’t impeccable… this is extremely dangerous against BOS’s hot bats.

On the other end, I expect Clay Buchholz to enjoy a great 2nd half of season.

Fangraphs.com did a nice article about him:

“After missing a month, Buchholz returned to the mound, having made four starts since rejoining the rotation. And what a turnaround it has been. He’s posted a 2.73 ERA over 29.2 innings, which was driven by a sparkling 23/1 K/BB ratio. But the best news is that his velocity is back. Having failed to average 92 mph in any game earlier in the season, Buchholz has averaged between 92.3 mph and 92.7 mph with his fastball over those four starts. That’s great news and provides enough reason to believe that he’s back. Target him now while his full-season stats still look terrible.“

 He was outstanding against HOU w/ a shutout complete game, and even though he had some problems vs. KC (he allowed 4ER’s), his advanced numbers in that game looked sharp w/ 2.14 FIP & 2.99 xFIP! His 22/1 K/BB ratio in his L3 starts is a great sign for him!

I think we have a pitching mismatch favoring the Red Sox and this is enough for us b/c their red hot offense will be decent vs. Dickey IMO.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ C. Buchholz) @ -101 / 1.99 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 07/23: Detroit Tigers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB - 925 Detroit Tigers @ 926 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: A. Sanchez vs. T. Cahill)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

***Early Start***

We watched last night another classic implosion from DET’s bullpen so we are catching them w/ a bounce back mindset for this early contest.

I just have to fade Trevor Cahill in this matchup vs. DET potent lineup… Cahill struggled early in the season = demoted to the bullpen; then he struggled w/ his command in the bullpen = ARI designated him for assignment! Well, he then struggled in the minors by walking 20 batters in 30 1/3 innings! Still, ARI gave him another chance and he was “OK” w/ 3 ER’s allowed and 3/2 K/BB ratio in 5 IP’s of work. The “problem” was that he faced the Cubs – a favorable matchup as CHC is ranked #28 in the league vs. RHP’s (OPS ranks)! Let’s see what he does tonight against this Tigers’ offense...

On the other end, Anibal Sanchez is coming from a strange outing vs. CLE in which he dominated in the first 6 IP’s just to implode in the 7th while giving up 4 ER’s. Nevertheless, his 7/1 K/BB ratio and 1.31 FIP & 1.94 xFIP numbers were good indicators for him. We must also not ignore the fact that CLE is a top 3 ranked team vs. RHP’s, so we have some good signs that Sanchez will bounce back today and be decent against this ARI offense.

I think we have a great pitching edge for DET tonight…we might sweat a bit late in the game w/ DET’s bullpen, but they should have a good lead by then.

Split the wager:

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on 925 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ A. Sanchez) @ -134 / 1.76 on Betonline

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime Play) on 925 Detroit Tigers RL-1.5 (w/ A. Sanchez) @ +115 / 2.15 on 5 Dimes

MLB Free Premium Play 07/23: Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

MLB - 915 Kansas City Royals @ 916 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: J. Shields vs. J. Quintana)

Play #2

***Early Start***

NOTE: no detailed write up for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 916 Chicago White Sox ML (w/ J. Quintana) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 07/23: Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins

MLB - 913 Cleveland Indians @ 914 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: T. Bauer vs. A. Swarzak)

Play #1

***Early Start***

Last night, we cashed w/ CLE both ML & RL plays as our Top Play of the day, and I’m backing them once again today in this early contest.

CLE will send Trevor Bauer to the mound and I expect him to be decent vs. MIN’s offense. Bauer has been solid and consistent all season long, but lately he has been even better w/ 2.27 FIP & 3.73 xFIP numbers in this current month (4 starts). Even though his 1-3 record & 5.29 ERA numbers on the road aren’t pretty, note that his L2 road starts were @LAD & @DET (two super tough matchups), and he was decent allowing 3 ER’s in both contests.

On the other end, I expect CLE offense to make some damage vs. Swarzak.

CLE has some nice hitting numbers against him: he had a 1-5 career mark w/ 7.34 ERA while allowing CLE batters to hit .343 against him in 16 appearances.

X factor IMO: his career numbers vs. LH batters are just atrocious w/ .330 wOBA + 4.70 FIP + 5.00 xFIP!

Well, like I've said yesterday, CLE is ranked #4 vs. RHP’s this season, and their lineup will be loaded w/ LH bats, ready to make some damage today, and obviously, I’m taking CLE once again today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ T. Bauer) @ -126 / 1.79 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 07/23

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 48-44 ATS | +8.5 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's Recap Plays:

Cleveland ML/RL-1.5 Double Dime WIN

Over PHI/SF 8 WIN

Kansas City ML WIN

Houston ML/RL+1.5 WIN

Over SEA/NYM 7 LOSS

Daily Message: 

Now that the World Cup is gone, I'll be focused in the MLB in the next two and half months. I have now more time to prepare games and obviously, I'll start making detailed write ups for my plays. Note also that I’ll make some important changes in my service in the near future w/ soccer being a main part of my handicapping process. I'm working and adjusting all my plan of work and soon, I'll make an announcement w/ my detailed plans.

We are coming from another nice profitable night in which we went 4-1 in our Plays. We cashed our Top Play w/ Cleveland (both ML & RL-1.5) and we were able to grab some juicy odds w/ the Houston Astros (RL & ML) as they upset the A’s and won the game 3-2. We are 11-5 ATS in the second half of season and we are back to the profit zone for the season w/ +8.5 units (3-4-5un MM).  Detailed write ups are now being included in all my plays so you can see the way I work in the MLB.

FIRST UPDATE: I’m yet to release a play for today, I’m working on it!

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 07/22

MLB - 953 San Francisco Giants @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Petit vs. R. Hernandez)

Play #1

Yesterday, these two teams combined between them 29 hits, so they are coming for tonight’s contest w/ a nice offensive rhythm. With Petit and Hernandez on the mound, I don’t think that this is change dramatically for today.

Petit has been decent in a relief role and has a nice 3.86 ERA / 3.05 FIP / 3.34 xFIP line to show this season, but his struggles vs. LH batters are well noticed: .371 wOBA + 6.02 FIP + 4.45 xFIP! Yikes! Now, here some bad news for him…. PHI’s lineup for tonight:

1. Ben Revere (L) CF
2. Jimmy Rollins (S) SS
3. Chase Utley (L) 2B
4. Ryan Howard (L) 1B
5. Marlon Byrd (R) RF
6. Grady Sizemore (L) LF
7. Cody Asche (L) 3B
8. Cameron Rupp (R) C
9. Roberto Hernandez (R) P

He will face 6 LH batters w/ the first 4 of them hitting all from the left side! I expect him to struggle a bit in this bad matchup.

On the other end, I just don’t trust in Roberto Hernandez. He had a nice start @MIL just before the all star break but, once again, his K/BB numbers were subpar w/ 3/2. This could be problematic against a Giants’ offense that has been pretty decent in this 2nd half of season and is ranked #8 & #11 in L14 days in K% & BB% rates, so I expect them to make Hernandez work hard for his pitches.

With the two SP’s having tough matchups, I’m taking my chances w/ OVER at this 8-runs line.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8 (w/ Y. Petit & R. Hernandezr) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

MLB - 967 Kansas City Royals @ 968 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: B. Chen vs. S. Carroll)

Play #2

KC had a legit shot to hit Chris Sale last night but they failed some clutch shots and lost once again. For tonight, I expect them to bounce back w/ Bruce Chen on the mound. Chen made 3 appearances since he came off the DL, and his last one vs. DET is a great sign for us.  He held the Tigers to just 2 ER’s for a nice 2.39 FIP game log. Note that we are talking about DET’s potent lineup (#2 vs. LHP this season)! CWS offense is ranked #28 vs. LHP, so this is a good matchup for him.

KC will face Scott Carroll tonight who is coming from quality b2b outings vs. BOS & CLE. However, KC batters know him relatively well, and already did some damage: 7.81 ERA and 4:6 K:BB across seven innings (one start, one relief appearance).

I expect KC to be fired up and w/ a pitching edge on the mound, I’m taking them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 967 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ B. Chen) @ -135 / 1.74 on Betonline

MLB Free Premium Play 07/22: New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners

MLB - 979 New York Mets @ 980 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: J. deGrom vs. E. Ramirez)

***FREE PREMIUM Play***

I understand that it is tough to cash w/ OVER in games involving the Mariners b/c the UNDER is 55-40-4 so far in the season, but I think that we have a good chance tonight…

NYM’s SP Jacob deGrom has some good numbers to show for the season w/ 3.18 ERA, 3.25 FIP & 3.45 xFIP! He has a great 23.5% K% mark for the season and his last 3 starts were amazing in that regard as he compiled 27 K’s vs. just 4 BB’s! However, I just can’t ignore the fact that he has faced ATL twice and MIA in those 3 games, and these teams are ranked #25 & #29 in K%’s! He had some pretty favorable matchups and indeed he took care of the job. SEA is ranked #9 in K% in L14 days and they are coming from a nice 14-hits outburst from last night. I expect deGrom to struggle a bit in here.

On the other side, SEA will send Erasmo Ramirez to the mound. Ramirez has some awful numbers to show w/ 4.58 ERA, 5.71 FIP & 4.93 xFIP! His command has been even worst w/ 1.45 K/BB ratio. This is where I like the Mets to be decent offensively! NYM has been a patient lineup all season long! They are ranked #4 in BB% w/ 9.1% & in L30 days = #9 w/ 8.9% BB%! I expect them to put some extra pressure on Ramirez and obviously, I’m taking the OVER in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 7 (w/ J. deGrom & E. Ramirez) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 07/22: San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

MLB - 953 San Francisco Giants @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Petit vs. R. Hernandez)

***FREE PREMIUM Play***

Yesterday, these two teams combined between them 29 hits, so they are coming for tonight’s contest w/ a nice offensive rhythm. With Petit and Hernandez on the mound, I don’t think that this is change dramatically for today.

Petit has been decent in a relief role and has a nice 3.86 ERA / 3.05 FIP / 3.34 xFIP line to show this season, but his struggles vs. LH batters are well noticed: .371 wOBA + 6.02 FIP + 4.45 xFIP! Yikes! Now, here some bad news for him…. PHI’s lineup for tonight:

1. Ben Revere (L) CF
2. Jimmy Rollins (S) SS
3. Chase Utley (L) 2B
4. Ryan Howard (L) 1B
5. Marlon Byrd (R) RF
6. Grady Sizemore (L) LF
7. Cody Asche (L) 3B
8. Cameron Rupp (R) C
9. Roberto Hernandez (R) P

He will face 6 LH batters w/ the first 4 of them hitting all from the left side! I expect him to struggle a bit in this bad matchup.

On the other end, I just don’t trust in Roberto Hernandez. He had a nice start @MIL just before the all star break but, once again, his K/BB numbers were subpar w/ 3/2. This could be problematic against a Giants’ offense that has been pretty decent in this 2nd half of season and is ranked #8 & #11 in L14 days in K% & BB% rates, so I expect them to make Hernandez work hard for his pitches.

With the two SP’s having tough matchups, I’m taking my chances w/ OVER at this 8-runs line.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8 (w/ Y. Petit & R. Hernandez) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

MLB Premium Card 07/21

MLB - 909 Washington Nationals @ 910 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister vs. F. Morales)

Play #1

In this contest, I’m focused to discuss a Team Total play w/ OVER WAS…

COL’s starting pitcher Franklin Morales’ numbers are just terrible. Not only his 5.47 ERA number for the season is atrocious, but also his advanced numbers aren’t pretty at all: 4.63 SIERA, 5.61 FIP & 4.53 xFIP! He also combines a poor K/BB ratio of 1.70 & 17.1% HR/FB rate = FADE MATERIAL!

However, he is coming from b2b decent starts in which he allowed just 1 ER’s in each game vs. LAD & SD. Still, his P/IP’s numbers in those 2 starts were high (17.3 & 17.8) and prevented him to reach the 6th IP in both games. I just can’t ignore the fact that he has faced two subpar offensive teams in #28 ranked LAD & dead last #30 SD offenses vs. LHP’s (OPS ranks).

 The Nationals are way better as they are ranked #8 vs. LHP in the season. They are confident w/ 4-1 SU record in L5 games and they have hit + .300 BA in their L4 games. I expect them to do some serious damage vs. Morales tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over TT Washington 5.5 Runs (w/ D. Fister) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

MLB - 913 Boston Red Sox @ 914 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison)

Play #2

These two teams have been “UNDER” teams so far in the season but I think we have a good opportunity to cash w/ the OVER in here.

I expect TOR offense to do some damage vs. Lackey tonight. They are ranked #2 vs. RHP’s this season, and they are coming from nice b2b offensive games vs. TEX in which they had .395 & .343 BA’s.

John Lackey is in a slump lately… he escaped in his last start @HOU w/ just 2ER’s allowed, but his 3/5 K/BB numbers & 19.5 P/IP said it all about his problems in that game. Actually, in his L4 starts, he had 19.5, 22.5, 19.2 & 20.2 P/IP numbers and obviously, he didn’t go deep in those games.

On the other end, Hutchison is also struggling lately w/ 4, 4, 1, 3 & 6 ER’s allowed in his L5 starts. His numbers vs. LH batters this season have been really problematic for him: 337 wOBA + 4.44 FIP & 4.51 xFIP!

BOS will put 5 LH batters in the lineup for tonight:

1. Brock Holt (L) 3B

2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B

3. David Ortiz (L) DH

4. Mike Napoli (R) 1B

5. Daniel Nava (S) LF

6. Stephen Drew (L) SS

7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 3B

8. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF

9. Christian Vazquez (R) C

I expect both offenses to generate some runs with this contest flying OVER the total posted.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8.5 (w/ J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison) @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 07/21: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

MLB - 913 Boston Red Sox @ 914 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

These two teams have been “UNDER” teams so far in the season but I think we have a good opportunity to cash w/ the OVER in here.

I expect TOR offense to do some damage vs. Lackey tonight. They are ranked #2 vs. RHP’s this season, and they are coming from nice b2b offensive games vs. TEX in which they had .395 & .343 BA’s.

John Lackey is in a slump lately… he escaped in his last start @HOU w/ just 2ER’s allowed, but his 3/5 K/BB numbers & 19.5 P/IP said it all about his problems in that game. Actually, in his L4 starts, he had 19.5, 22.5, 19.2 & 20.2 P/IP numbers and obviously, he didn’t go deep in those games.

On the other end, Hutchison is also struggling lately w/ 4, 4, 1, 3 & 6 ER’s allowed in his L5 starts. His numbers vs. LH batters this season have been really problematic for him: 337 wOBA + 4.44 FIP & 4.51 xFIP!

BOS will put 5 LH batters in the lineup for tonight:

1. Brock Holt (L) 3B

2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B

3. David Ortiz (L) DH

4. Mike Napoli (R) 1B

5. Daniel Nava (S) LF

6. Stephen Drew (L) SS

7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 3B

8. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF

9. Christian Vazquez (R) C

I expect both offenses to generate some runs with this contest flying OVER the total posted.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8.5 (w/ J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison) @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 07/21: Washington Nationals @Colorado Rockies

MLB - 909 Washington Nationals @ 910 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister vs. F. Morales)

Play #1

In this contest, I’m focused to discuss a Team Total play w/ OVER WAS…

COL’s starting pitcher Franklin Morales’ numbers are just terrible. Not only his 5.47 ERA number for the season is atrocious, but also his advanced numbers aren’t pretty at all: 4.63 SIERA, 5.61 FIP & 4.53 xFIP! He also combines a poor K/BB ratio of 1.70 & 17.1% HR/FB rate = FADE MATERIAL!

However, he is coming from b2b decent starts in which he allowed just 1 ER’s in each game vs. LAD & SD. Still, his P/IP’s numbers in those 2 starts were high (17.3 & 17.8) and prevented him to reach the 6th IP in both games. I just can’t ignore the fact that he has faced two subpar offensive teams in #28 ranked LAD & dead last #30 SD offenses vs. LHP’s (OPS ranks).

 The Nationals are way better as they are ranked #8 vs. LHP in the season. They are confident w/ 4-1 SU record in L5 games and they have hit + .300 BA in their L4 games. I expect them to do some serious damage vs. Morales tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over TT Washington 5.5 Runs (w/ D. Fister) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

MLB Premium Card 07/20

MLB - 959 New York Mets @ 960 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: Z. Wheeler vs. K. Correia)

Play #1

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 New York Mets ML (w/ O. Despaigne) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 971 Tampa Bay Rays @ 972 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: C. Archer vs. K. Correia)

Play #2

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Tampa Bay Ray ML (w/ C. Archer) @ -135 / 1.74 on Betonline

MLB Premium Card 07/19

MLB - 905 Milwaukee Brewers @ 906 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: M. Garza vs. T. Roark)

Play #1

I expect the Nationals to bounce back tonight after losing the first game of the series 2-4. Actually, despite losing, WAS “outhit” 11-8 MIL, but the lack of “clutch” from WAS’s batters was the X factor: MIL went 1-1 in RISP vs. 1-10 from WAS!

MIL will throw Matt Garza to the mound and even though he was great in the L2 starts vs. PHI & CIN, I expect him to have some problems vs. this WAS lineup.

However, I really like our chances w/ WAS’s SP Tanner Roark. He struggled in b2b starts, both were against the Cubs in which he allowed 4 ER’s but he bounced back pretty strongly in the last start. One possible key factor for this bounce back = prolonged rest! For today he had 5 days off and so, we are dealing w/ a good spot for him. Note that Roark has some pretty nasty numbers vs. RH batters: .280 wOBA + 2.45 FIP + 3.02 xFIP! When facing the Brewers’ potent but heavy RH lineup, these great numbers vs. RH batters could make the difference, especially when Roark is yet to face them! Therefore, I'm taking the Nationals in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 906 Washington Nationals ML (w/ T. Roark) @ -126 / 1.79 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 907 San Francisco Giants @ 908 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hudson vs. H. Alvarez)

Play #2

SF’s offense has shown some signs of life in their last 2 games by scoring 8 and 9 runs, so we are getting them w/ some renewed confidence.

Tim Hudson is coming from a tough outing vs. OAK in which he allowed 6 ER’s in just 5.1 IP’s of work. Hudson’s problems vs. LH batters (w/ .323 wOBA + 3.64 FIP + 4.12 xFIP) were well explored by the A’s dynamic lineup and he couldn’t match them. I expect them to bounce back vs. MIA today! MIA’s lineup for today:

1. Christian Yelich (L) LF
2. Jordany Valdespin (L) 2B
3. Giancarlo Stanton (R) RF
4. Casey McGehee (R) 3B
5. Garrett Jones (L) 1B
6. Marcell Ozuna (R) CF
7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) C
8. Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS
9. Henderson Alvarez (R) P

MIA will put “only” 4 batters from the left side w/ only Yelich being a real threat for him (Garrett Jones potentially is the other one but he is batting .200 BA in L30 days), so this is a good spot for Hudson.

On the other side, Henderson Alvarez is primed for a letdown in this second half of season. His stellar 2.63 ERA numbers is not supported by advanced metrics: 3.69 SIERA, 3.35 FIP & 3.57 xFIP! SF’s has some good numbers vs. him, he has faced twice the Giants since the last season and SF torched w/ 4 ER’s in each game!

I think we have a good pitching edge favoring the Giants while their offense has some good confidence right now and therefore, I'm taking them in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ T. Hudson) @ -112 / 1.89 on Betonline

MLB - 923 Houston Astros @ 924 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: D. Keuchel vs. H. Noesi)

Play #3

I think we have a tremendous pitching mismatch in this contest w/ HOU’s Dallas Keuchel being way better in my PR’s numbers vs. Noesi and obviously, this current 50/50 price odds for the game doesn’t makes sense for me.

Keuchel started the season pretty strong but lately, he has been faded a bit as he has allowed 4, 4, 5 and 4 ER’s in his L4 starts. Maybe he was tired? Well, he is super fresh for today w/ 9 days off! Key factor IMO: just look for their opponent’s ranks vs. LHP in that L4 starts:

TEX        #11      
LAA        #1
TB          #5
WAS      #6
…
CWS      #28

You can see the difference! He has faced 4 elite offensive teams vs. LHP’s and today’s matchup vs. CWS is quite favorable vs. one of the worst offensive teams vs. LHP.

On the other end, I understand that Hector Noesi is capable of anything: his L4 starts ER’s numbers are 6, 0, 5 & 2 ER’s. But his 4.49 SIERA / 4.83 FIP & 4.46 xFIP numbers line are pretty mediocre for the season. The Astros have faced him in May and pounded him w/ 8H, 6R, 5ER & 2 HR’s! = PITCHING MISMATCH!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 923 Houston Astros ML (w/ D. Keuchel) @ -106 / 1.94 on Betonline