English Premier League Play - Hull City @ Manchester City

English Premier League - Hull City @ Manchester City

After Manchester City's loss at Cardiff last Sunday, we know what every small team will try to do against them: park the bus! The big difference is that Cardiff defended really well, but Manchester City also looked surprised with that. The good news about this loss is that Man City will be fired up to bounce back today. Hull City has already faced a top team on the road on Round 1, when they lost by 2-0 at Chelsea, which could have been like 4-0 or 5-0 at half time! Chelsea relaxed during the second half because they would be facing Aston Villa in middle of the following week and they didn't try to crush Hull. However, considering Man City's loss last week, that won't happen tonight. They will likely score first today and they'll keep trying to score more goals.

Hull City is coming from a home win against Norwich, where they played almost a hour with 10 men, as their striker Yannick Sagbo was sent-off. After that, Hull defended the result after scoring their goal via penalty kick, ending the game with just 39% ball possession and just 7 shots, while Norwich had 13. Of course Norwich's offense lacks the level of Man City's offense and Hull will struggle a lot more today. I expect Manchester City to enter today's game fired up, scoring early and then keep pressuring Hull for a blowout win today. Therefore, I'll be taking Man City today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Manchester City (-2) @ +109 / 2.09 on Pinnacle OR +101 / 2.01 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Card 08/30

MLB - 951 Philadelphia Phillies @ 952 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: R. Halladay vs J. Samardzija) 

NOTE: Early Game - No Writeup For This Contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 952 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ J. Samardzija) @ -126 / 1.79 on Bovada

MLB - 953 St Louis Cardinals @ 954 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: S. Miller vs F. Liriano)

Pittsburgh will start Francisco Liriano tonight, who allowed four earned runs on his last outing Saturday against San Francisco. Liriano has been inconsistent with three disasters over his last ten outings, but he has been dominating the Cardinals this season with one earned run allowed in each game against St Louis, with nine and seven innings pitched. However, I believe the Cardinals's lineup will be fired up and they will finally cause some issues on the inconsistent Liriano tonight.

Shelby Miller will start for the Cardinals and he is coming from back to back good outings at Milwaukee and especially against Atlanta. He had three decent starts against Pittsburgh this season, with three, three and two earned runs allowed. He is now using the cutter pitch a lot and this is surprising his opponents completely! Miller is great against RH batters (.187 BA, .247 wOBA, 2.78 FIP and 3.01 xFIP), so he is a terrible matchup for the Pirates' lineup that is loaded with RH batters. Therefore, I see good value on the Cardinals tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ S. Miller) @ +118 / 2.18 on 5Dimes

MLB - 959 Cincinnati Reds @ 960 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: B. Arroyo vs J. De La Rosa)

Cincinnati will start Bronson Arroyo tonight and he is coming from four phenomenal starts, with a combined of 26/0 K/BB! He faced teams loaded with RH batters (Milwaukee, Arizona, Cubs and San Diego) and Arroyo is great against them, while he struggles against LH batters, but Colorado doesn't have LH batters in good form to insert them in the lineup tonight to make Arroyo struggle. Therefore, he should have another good outing against the Rockies, like his first two outings of the season against Colorado, where he didn't allow a single earned run in 6.2 and 8.0 innings of work!

Jorge De La Rosa will start for the Rockies and he is coming from a poor start against Miami, who happens to be the worst team in the league on hitting against LH pitchers! He has a solid 3.62 ERA in August, but his command with 14.6% K% and 9.8% BB% isn't impressive. I believe Cincinnati will have a clear SP edge tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ B. Arroyo) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

MLB - 961 San Francisco Giants @ 962 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: T. Lincecum vs R. Delgado)

Tim Lincecum will start for San Francisco tonight and he is coming from no runs allowed against Washington last Saturday. He had high P/IP ratios on his last three outings, but he faced Pittsburgh, Boston and Washington, three teams that are #14, #3 and #2 respectively on offense in August! Arizona has been also hitting quite well in August, but I believe Lincecum will have another decent outing tonight, even with some batters walked.

Arizona will start Randall Delgado, who allowed five runs in six innings against Cincinnati last Monday. Delgado has been facing tough opposition lately and so, he is starting to struggle. I rate Lincecum a bit higher than Delgado right now, so with the Giants having a slight SP edge in here tonight, I believe they have great value as underdogs. Therefore, I'll be taking San Francisco in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 961 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ T. Lincecum) @ +117 / 2.17 on 5Dimes

MLB - 967 Kansas City Royals @ 968 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: E. Santana vs M. Buehrle)

Kansas City will start Ervin Santana, who allowed four earned runs in 6.2 innings against Washington last Sunday. He had 6.78, 4.53 and 8.76 FIP in three of his last four starts, with his only good start being against the terrible Marlins. He is currently having a 4.94 FIP and 4.11 xFIP in August and his 11.9% HR/FB% will be heavily exposed against Toronto's power lineup tonight.

Mark Buehrle will start for the Blue Jays and he is coming from six quality starts on his last eight outings, with a 2.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 6.59 K/9 in 56 innings. He has been solid with 1, 2, 1 and 3 earned runs allowed over his last four games, even though he faced Oakland, Boston and the NY Yankees in three of these four games! I believe Toronto has huge value as home underdogs tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ M. Buehrle) @ +112 / 2.12 on 5Dimes

MLB - 973 Minnesota Twins @ 974 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: L. Hendriks vs Y. Darvish)

Yu Darvish will start for Texas tonight and he allowed two runs in seven innings against the White Sox last Saturday. He has been a strikeout machine this season, but he has been prone to allow a home run here and there. He will now face Minnesota, whose lineup has been terrible lately with less than .200 BA in four of his last five games! They have also the worst K% allowed over the last week with 27.7% K% and also dead last over the last two weeks with 25.8% K%, so Yu will destroy them tonight.

Minnesota will start Liam Hendriks, who couldn't strikeout a single batter on his last outing. His 6.20 ERA, 6.03 FIP and 4.94 xFIP over four starts this season are just terrible, with a poor 25,6% linedrive% and a 39.7% flyball%, besides a horrible 8.8% K%! Texas is coming from a day off, so they should be fresh for tonight to pound him. I expect an easy win for Texas and so, I'll be taking them on the runline tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 974 Texas Rangers RL -1.5 (w/ Y. Darvish) @ -150 / 1.67 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 08/29

MLB - 907 Oakland Athletics @ 908 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: B. Colon vs M. Scherzer)

Note: early game

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Detroit Tigers RL-1 (w/ M. Scherzer) @ -145 / 1.69 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 909 LA Angels @ 910 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: J. Vargas vs J. Odorizzi)

Note: early game

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Tampa Bay Rays RL-1 (w/ J. Odorizzi) @ -112 / 1.89 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 903 Miami Marlins @ 904 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Koehler vs G. Gonzalez)

Gio Gonzalez will start for the Nationals tonight and he is coming from two poor outings at Kansas and at Detroit. However, these two poor outings were caused by a similar spot, where he was coming from a start where he had a super high pitch count, so he was tired. This won't happen tonight, as he had 5 days of rest prior to tonight and he threw just 77 pitches against the Royals on his last game. Miami is the worst offense of the league against LH pitchers and they are hitting just .234 BA against LH pitchers on their last 10 games, while Miami's roster is hitting just .183 BA and .456 OPS in 82 AB's against Gio. Therefore, this is a good bounce back spot for him tonight.

On the other side, Miami will start Tom Koehler, who has a 11% BB% in August, something that prevents him to go deep in the outings, as it causes quite high P/IP ratios. Washington's lineup is now healthy and they have woken up recently by being #4 in the league over the last 30 and 14 days! Koehler throws fastballs and curveballs, two types of pitches where Washington is really good against. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Nationals tonight and so, I'll be taking them on the runline in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Washington Nationals RL -1.5 (w/ G. Gonzalez) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

MLB - 915 Seattle Mariners @ 916 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: E. Ramirez vs J. Lyles)

We have excellent conditions in here for a high scoring game, with the winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 mph and the temperatures rounding 100º! Seattle will start Erasmo Ramirez, who has a 41.3% flyball rate, combined with a 20.3% linedrive%, a bad combination that gives him a 14.5% HR/FB%! Houston's offense is surprisingly #3 in the league over the last two weeks with a stellar .805 OPS, so they will cause problems to Ramirez tonight!

Jordan Lyles will start for Houston and he has been alternating starts with games where he comes off the bullpen. His second half of the season has been horrible with a 7.68 ERA, .331 BA, 6.04 FIP and 4.69 xFIP! Seattle was swept at home by the LA Angels and Texas in a row, so they are really needing to play on the road to relieve the pressure. Lyles is catastrophic against LH batters with 11.2% K% and 10.5% BB% and Seattle will use seven players hitting from the left side tonight! 

1. Brad Miller (L) SS

2. Nick Franklin (S) 2B

3. Kyle Seager (L) 3B

4. Raul Ibanez (L) DH

5. Justin Smoak (S) 1B

6. Franklin Gutierrez (R) RF

7. Michael Saunders (L) LF

8. Dustin Ackley (L) CF

9. Humberto Quintero (R) C

With both pitchers struggling tonight, I expect this game to be a high scoring contest and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915/916 Over 9 (w/ E. Ramirez & J. Lyles) @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

MLB - 917 Cleveland Indians @ 918 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: U. Jimenez vs K. Medlen)

Kris Medlen will start for Atlanta and he is coming from a decent start at St Louis, where he allowed three earned runs in six innings. Decent has been the rule for Medlen in August with a 3.72 ERA and 4.69 xFIP, but he has been poor against LH batters with a 4.40 FIP and 4.43 xFIP! Cleveland is one of the teams that can really build a lineup full of quality LH batters and this is happening tonight as well, with six batters hitting from the left side:

1. Michael Bourn (L) CF

2. Nick Swisher (S) RF

3. Jason Kipnis (L) 2B

4. Carlos Santana (S) 1B

5. Michael Brantley (L) LF

6. Yan Gomes (R) C

7. Asdrubal Cabrera (S) SS

8. Mike Aviles (R) 3B

9. Ubaldo Jimenez (R) P

Cleveland will start Ubaldo Jimenez and he has been quite underrated on his last three starts. He is having an excellent August with 2.86 ERA, 2.49 FIP and 3.68 xFIP, so therefore I believe Cleveland have an excellent chance to win tonight's game and avoid getting swept on this series. I'll be taking the Indians tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ U. Jimenez) @ +124 / 2.24 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 08/28: Cleveland Indians @ Atlanta Braves

MLB - 979 Cleveland Indians @ 980 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: J. Masterson vs P. Maholm)
Paul Maholm will start for Atlanta and he is coming from an outing at St Louis, where he allowed four earned runs in 5.1 innings, with a 4/3 K/BB ratio! After a strong start, Maholm is now struggling and Cleveland is a top offense against LH pitchers by being #4 in the league with .747 OPS! Therefore, I expect Maholm to struggle once again tonight.

The Indians will start Justin Masterson, who is coming from back to back quality starts at Oakland and at LA against the Angels, where he allowed one and three earned runs respectively. He walked five batters against the Angels, but he is coming for tonight's game with six days of rest and that resulted on an average ERA of 1.38 in the two times that this has already happened this season. On this good spot for him, I expect Masterson to have a good outing against Atlanta's lineup that is hitting just .213 BA against RH pitchers on their last 10 games. I believe Cleveland has a SP and offensive edges tonight, therefore I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 979 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ J. Masterson) @ -108 / 1.92 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 08/28: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 971 Baltimore Orioles @ 972 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs J. Lackey)
Bud Norris will start for Baltimore and he can be a decent pitcher if he isn't facing lineups loaded with LH batters. But when that doesn't happen, he struggles a lot and he is allowing .305 BA, .386 wOBA, 13.7% K% vs 9.5% BB%, 5.35 FIP and 5.12 xFIP against LH hitters this season. He is coming from an outing against Oakland, where he faced the following lineup:

1. Coco Crisp (S) CF
2. Jed Lowrie (S) SS
3. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
4. Brandon Moss (L) 1B
5. Yoenis Cespedes (R) LF
6. Seth Smith (L) RF
7. Alberto Callaspo (S) DH
8. Eric Sogard (L) 2B
9. Stephen Vogt (L) C

The A's had 7 batters hitting from the left side and with that, Norris allowed seven earned runs in just 4.2 innings! Unfortunately for Norris, Boston will have a similar approach tonight with several quality LH batters on the lineup to pound him. This is why Norris is allowing .385 BA and 1.088 OPS in 52 AB's to Boston's roster!

On the other side, John Lackey will start for Boston and after a bad game at Kansas City, he bounced back with two good outings against the two hottest teams in the league: one earned run allowed against the Yankees in 6.2 innings and two earned runs allowed in eight innings against the Dodgers! This is a great indicator about how good he has been pitching and therefore, he should be able to limit the damage against Baltimore, something that should be enough to allow his team to pick up an easy win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 972 Boston Red Sox RL -1 (w/ J. Lackey) @ -127 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/28: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

MLB - 969 New York Yankees @ 970 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: H. Kuroda vs T. Redmond)
The Yankees will start Hiroki Kuroda tonight, who is coming from his worst start of the season against Tampa Bay. It was the second start in a row where he struggled, but it's important to note that he was unlucky against the Red Sox with a ,500 BABIP, while Kuroda has been struggling against the Rays lately with a 6.11 ERA and .290 BA on three starts against them this season. Kuroda struggles against LH batters (.252 BA, .310 wOBA and 3.91 FIP) and Tampa Bay used six LH batters on the lineup to take advantage of that. Things will be different tonight, as Toronto will be a much easier matchup for him, as he is allowing just .243 BA in 181 AB's against the Blue Jays' roster! Toronto lacks a decent number of LH batters to make Kuroda struggle and so, I expect him to bounce back tonight.

On the other side, Todd Redmond will start for the Blue Jays and he is coming from getting crushed at Houston with eight earned runs allowed in just 3.1 innings! He only has the fastball and the slider on his weaponry and the Yankees are the top 10 team in hitting against both pitches over the last two weeks. Therefore, I expect Redmond to heavily struggle once again tonight, while Kuroda should bounce back, so I'll be taking the Yankees in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 New York Yankees ML (w/ H. Kuroda) @ -135 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/28: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

MLB - 957 Philadelphia Phillies @ 958 New York Mets
(Starting Pitchers: C. Hamels vs D. Matsuzaka) 
Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his second start for the Mets tonight and he is coming from five runs allowed on five innings on his first against Detroit. His stats of 9.00 ERA, 7.23 FIP and 4.79 xFIP clear show that this was a poor outing. He doesn't have quality to be a MLB SP anymore, with 88 mph fastballs and with a 17.2 P/IP! Therefore, Philadelphia should be able to make a good amount of damage on him tonight.

The Phillies will start Cole Hamels, who has been super solid lately. He faced three top teams (Arizona, LA Dodgers, Atlanta) on his last three outings and Philadelphia won all these three contests, with Hamels having a 2.75, 2.60 and 1.37 FIP on them! Excellent! The Mets's offense is struggling right now and even though they scored five runs yesterday, they hit just .167 BA and three of their five runs came from a single hit by their SP Jonathon Niese! With a clear SP edge tonight, I expect the Phillies to get revenge from yesterday's loss and pick an easy win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1 (w/ C. Hamels) @ -129 / 1.78 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/28: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB - 955 Milwaukee Brewers @ 956 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: T. Gorzelanny vs C. Morton)

***TOP PLAY***
Pittsburgh will start Charlie Morton tonight and he is currently in great form by allowing just 1, 2, 2 and 2 earned runs on his last four games! He is coming from a great start at San Francisco and his 3.21 ERA, 2.71 FIP and 3.32 xFIP in August don't lie: he's on fire right now! His only weakness is pitching against LH batters, but Milwaukee's lineup is loaded with RH batters, so this won't be a problem tonight.

Tom Gorzelanny will start for Milwaukee and after a nice span with quality starts, he was pounded on his last two games against Cincinnati and the Cardinals by allowing 7 and 5 earned runs! Therefore, all his confidence is gone! Pittsburgh's offense is streaky, but they are actually very solid while facing LH pitchers with .277 BA on their last 10 games against them, besides being #5 in the league on hitting against LH pitchers with a .740 OPS! After losing yesterday's game, I believe Pittsburgh will bounce back tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 956 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ C. Morton) @ -146 / 1.68 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/28: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

MLB - 953 Miami Marlins @ 954 Washington Nationals
(Starting Pitchers: H. Alvarez vs S. Strasburg)
Washington will start Stephen Strasburg tonight, who is coming from a good start at Chicago against the Cubs, where he allowed two earned runs. He has been at a good level on the second half of the season with a 3.02 ERA, 3.14 FIP and 2.57 xFIP, with a phenomenal 29.1% K% and 5.5% BB%! This is a revenge game for Strasburg, who was surprisingly crushed at Miami last month, so I expect him to get revenge over Miami's terrible offense that hit below .160 BA on their last four games!

Henderson Alvarez will start for the Marlins in here and he has been slumping lately due to some bad control, with seven walks on his last three outings. Washington's offense has comeback to life recently and they are now #4 in the league over the past week, #7 over the last two weeks and #5 over the last month! They are hitting .282 BA on the last 14 days and so, I expect them to pound the struggling Alvarez. With Washington's clear SP and offense edges tonight, I expect them to pick up an easy win and so, I'll be taking them on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Washington Nationals RL -1.5 (w/ S. Strasburg) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Soccer Champions League Premium Play 08/28: Lyon @ Real Sociedad

Soccer Champions League  - Lyon vs Real Sociedad

Pinnacle Sports odds: Real Sociedad -102, Lyon +308, Draw +270, Over 2.5 -119

***TOP PLAY***

This contest is the opposite of what I expect from the early game of the day between Zenit and Pacos de Ferreira as we have a perfect matchup for a high scoring game due mostly for the mental attitude that the French team will have to put on the pitch today.

Real Sociedad won in France 2-0 the first leg and showed an exciting game that was highlighted by two spectacular goals. The final score was a “huge surprise” as the French team was the clearly favorite go through this series. However that win was well deserved as Real Sociedad was not shy of playing on the road despite having several young players. They dominated the ball possession w/ 53%, they attempted more shots than Lyon 12 vs. 11 and they even had more corner kicks as well 7 vs. 6. Besides the two goals, the game had 2 balls that hit the post and only in the last 15 minutes of the game we saw a decrease of intensity because of a red card showed to a Lyon’ player.

For today I expect the French team to go to the pitch with an “all out attack” mindset from the start as they simply don’t have any margin to think otherwise. They cannot afford to have a more cautious role because time is running against them; the only way is to score goals if they want to qualify for the Champions League this season.

However this expected mindset from Lyon will put Real Sociedad in a comfortable spot of having more space to counter attack and use their good pace/speed on the front. This Spanish team has the same style of the last season despite having a new coach: they play a fluid offensive game and early on the day I’ve read some pre-match comments from their coach saying that if they start the contest with a “speculation mindset”, then they will lose the game because they simply don’t know how to play in that role.

Both teams are coming for this contest after subpar performances in their domestic leagues. Real Sociedad draw @Elche 1-1 while Lyon lost at home against Reims 0-1. It was a clear signal that both teams were thinking ahead of time for tonight’s big game so intensity and pace will be present in this contest.

I think we should be dealing with a 3 goals line in this contest as no matter what team scores first tonight, the opposition won’t change their offensive mindset and that fits well a high scoring game and that’s why I’m taking the Over as a Top Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2.5 Goals @ -116 / 1.86 on 5 Dimes

Soccer Champions League Play 08/28: Pacos Ferreira @ Zenit St. Petersburg

Soccer Champions League  - Zenit St. Petersburg vs Pacos de Ferreira

Pinnacle Sports odds: Zenit -265, Paços de Ferreira +845, Draw +430, Over 2.75 -114

In my opinion this is a perfect example of a market overreaction after just one game, I remember that in the first leg of this series, the totals line market was heavily favoring the Under as Pinnacle Sports closed the totals line w/ Under 2.5 Goals @ -142 / 1.70 odds.

Eventually the game ended with Zenit winning 4-1 and because of that the oddsmakers were forced to put today’s total line is overvalued as we can get a 3-goals line at decent odds. I watched the first leg and I can say that the final score was a bit unfair for the Portuguese team because they didn’t play as bad as the final outcome would dictate. What happened was an inexperienced team trying to be pro-active on offense, pressuring high on the pitch but by doing that they were exposed on the back and because their individual talent isn’t good enough for this level of completion, Zenit just took advantage of such holes and scored 4 goals.

The Portuguese team as a new coach for this season (that was a “weird” choice given his inexperience) and things could not went worse in the domestic league with 2 losses in 2 games and no goals scored. They know that their chances to qualify dropped from slim to almost none (and I’m being optimistic in here) so their mindset for today’s game is quite simple to predict in my opinion:  “just not be embarrassed”! In this scenario I’m not expecting them to go all out searching for a goal, instead they will be more prudent and cautious or else they will be humiliated.

On the other side, the Russian team will control the tempo of the game, the qualification is almost done so there is no need to rush things. They have a big domestic league game in this weekend against Lokomotiv Moscow so we can expect them to play slow and manage their effort. They won’t have the same scoring chances than they had in the first leg because Paços de Ferreira won’t be positioned that high in the pitch today.

This whole scenario makes the Under 3 Goals a valuable bet for today and I’m just taking advantage of a market overreaction.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 3 Goals @ -132 / 1.76 on Betonline

MLB Premium Card 08/27

MLB - 903 Milwaukee Brewers @ 904 Pittsburgh Pirates
(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs J. Locke)
Pittsburgh will start Jeff Locke tonight, who is in complete fade alert right now. He struggled at San Francisco on his last outing with three earned runs allowed in four innings, with a poor control once again: 3/4 K/BB! He has a 7.50 ERA, 4.92 FIP and 5.12 xFIP in August, while having also a 12.6% K% and 14.7% BB%. He is missing his strike zone by a wide margin lately and so, Milwaukee's offense that is #5 in OPS with .776 over the last two weeks will pound him tonight.

Milwaukee will start Kyle Lohse and he has been even more solid as of late by posting six quality starts in his last seven games. He faced Cincinnati and St Louis on his last two games and Lohse impressed by allowing just three and one earned runs. He has a solid numbers against RH hitters with 3.98 FIP and 3.79 xFIP, so he should be fine against Pittsburgh's lineup that will be loaded with righties as usual. I believe Milwaukee will have an SP and offensive edge tonight over Pittsburgh, so I'll be taking them in here for the upset.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ K. Lohse) @ +120 / 2.20 on Bovada



MLB - 905 Philadelphia Phillies @ 906 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: K. Kendrick vs J. Niese)
Jonathon Niese will start for the Mets tonight and since he returned from the DL, he has been solid with three great starts: 1.29 ERA + 2.17 FIP + 2.97 xFIP; 1.50 ERA + 3.20 FIP + 1.72 xFIP; 6.00 ERA + 4.03 FIP + 3.94 xFIP! He is also coming from back to back nine strikeouts on his last two outings, good news as he has been facing tough opposition such as Atlanta (#8 vs LHP), San Diego (#6 vs LHP) and Arizona (#14 vs LHP)! Philadelphia will be a much easier opponent (.185 BA L10 games vs LHP), so I expect Niese to dominate tonight.

The Phillies will start Kyle Kendrick and he is on complete fade alert mode right now with a 5.91 ERA in August and a complete inability to strikeout batters with just 2, 1 and 3 K's on his last three games. The Mets's offense hasn't been great lately, but they have been facing good pitching staff such as Atlanta, Detroit and Cliff Lee last night. Now against Kendrick, they should be able to make enough damage for a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 906 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Niese) @ -127 / 1.79 on Bookmaker



MLB - 907 Cincinnati Reds @ 908 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: M. Latos vs J. Kelly)
Mat Latos will start for the Reds tonight and he has been dominating since the All Star break with a 0.89 ERA, 2.34 FIP and 3.62 xFIP, while having a 20.3% K% and 5.1% BB%! St Louis's offense has been playing well, but Latos has been dominating them this season with 2, 0 and 1 earned runs allowed. This is due Latos's ability to dominate RH batters with 2.31 FIP and 2.84 xFIP! Therefore, I believe Latos will be able to have another good outing tonight.

St Louis will start Joe Kelly and he has been playing well since he got promoted to full time SP, but his numbers in August aren't being as sharp with 2.20 ERA, but with a 3.66 FIP and 4.27 xFIP! His inability to strikeout opponents is also worrying, especially with a 10.8% BB%! Cincinnati is #2 in the league on BB% with 9.1%, so they will work on Kelly and make some damage on him eventually. Therefore, I expect the Reds to pick up a nice win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ M. Latos) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bovada



MLB - 909 Chicago Cubs @ 910 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: T. Wood vs C. Kershaw)
Clayton Kershaw will start for the Dodgers and he has been insanely good lately with a 0.90 ERA, 2.03 FIP and 2.86 xFIP in August, while having a 24.6% K% and 7.3% BB%! Now against the lowly Cubs, whose offense is just #28 over the last 14 days, Kershaw should dominate.

Travis Wood is coming from poor back to back starts against St Louis and Washington, where he allowed four earned runs on each game, while having some poor command as well. Wood has already been crushed by the Dodgers in August and the same should happen tonight. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the LA team and so, I'll be taking them on the runline in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Los Angeles Dodgers RL -1.5 (w/ C. Kershaw) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes



MLB - 917 Oakland Athletics @ 918 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: T. Milone vs J. Verlander)
Tommy Milone will start for the A's tonight and he has a 45.7% FB% plus a 11.3% HR/FB, so such a flyball pitcher against the #1 offense in the league versus LH pitchers and looking at their current form (>.300 BA in eight of his last nine games), Milone is getting absolutely crushed tonight.

Justin Verlander is coming from a poor outing against the shorthanded Twins, where he allowed six earned runs in seven innings. He walked three batters in that start and the truth is that Verlander has been walking a lot of batters lately. Oakland is #1 in the league on BB%, so they will work on Verlander a lot tonight. Looking at these two struggling pitchers, I can only expect a high scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917/918 Over 8,5 (w/ T. Milone & J. Verlander) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker



MLB - 919 Los Angeles Angels @ 920 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: C. Wilson vs R. Hernandez)
Roberto Hernandez will be soon demoted to the bullpen, as he has been struggling during the second half of the season with a 5.22 ERA, .302 BA, .356 wOBA and a poor 12.1% K%! The Angels are still a good offensive team and so, I believe Hernandez will heavily struggle tonight.

The LA team will start C.J. Wilson, who allowed one run in 7.1 innings against Cleveland last Tuesday. He has been very solid in August, even though he had a tough schedule, as he faced Cleveland twice, the red hot Yankees and Toronto. Still, Wilson had a 2.36 ERA and 2.96 FIP in those outings! He will be rested for tonight's game with six days of rest and he has been excellent on this kind of spot this season with a 2.66 ERA! I believe the Angels will have a clear SP edge in tonight's game and looking at the fact that they had a day off yesterday, while the Rays had to play a make up game at Kansas City, I believe the LA team has a great chance of pulling the upset tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Angels in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ C. Wilson) @ +127 / 2.27 on 5Dimes

English Premier League Round 2 Recap

English Premier League Round 2 Recap:

Cardiff 3 Manchester City 2

It was expected that Cardiff would have a defensive attitude against Manchester City, but they took that to the extreme during the first half with all their defensive lines being placed way back in the field. It was common to see their two defensive lines formed by four players being almost inside their own area! I don't know if City was ready for such defensive attitude from Cardiff, but the truth is that they struggled in creating scoring chances during the first half, even though they had over 70% of ball possession. I have to give credit to Cardiff who had committed a lot of defensive errors at West Ham on Round 1, but they improved a lot their defensive coordination on this game. During the second half, Edin Dzeko scored the 1-0 for the City on an individual play and common sense would tell that us that Cardiff would be forced to abandon their defensive mindset, something that would give City more space to attack, but the truth is Manchester City committed several defensive errors that allowed a great comeback from Cardiff. It was an awful performance from their right back Pablo Zabaleta, who was to blame on the three goals scored by Cardiff, as he was the player who was doing a man to man cover on Frazier Campbell that scored the second and third goals with two headers. Joe Hart also seems to be out of form and so, Vincent Kompany needs to comeback quickly, as Javi Garcia is merely a filler for center back. Despite having 70% ball possession, City's coach Manuel Pellegrini was outcoached on this contest.

Tottenham 1 Swansea 0

For the second consecutive week, Tottenham wins their game by 1-0 due to a penalty kick from Roberto Soldado, but they produced enough for a more comfortable win. I don't know if physical/mental fatigue was an issue for the Welsh team after their midweek game for Europa League, but the truth is that Tottenham's pace was always superior to Swansea's during the whole game. They created more chances by using the superior skills of Paulinho as expected, but Swansea's GK Michel Vorm made some awesome saves, while the referee also helped the Welsh team by not calling a clear penalty favoring Tottenham during the first week. The only negative aspect for Tottenham during the game was their lack of a true playmaker and this was why they wanted Willian, who ended up in Chelsea. With Gareth Bale's sale to Real Madrid, Tottenham will need some new blood on this area. Regarding Swansea, their energy level seemed lower than usual. They will play in Romania next Thursday, so they'll need to be able to find a way soon to play well twice a week and not just once.

MLB Free Premium Play 08/27: Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

LA Angels  at Tampa Bay

MLB - 919 Los Angeles Angels @ 920 Tampa Bay Rays (Starting Pitchers: C. Wilson vs R. Hernandez) Roberto Hernandez will be soon demoted to the bullpen, as he has been struggling during the second half of the season with a 5.22 ERA, .302 BA, .356 wOBA and a poor 12.1% K%! The Angels are still a good offensive team and so, I believe Hernandez will heavily struggle tonight. The LA team will start C.J. Wilson, who allowed one run in 7.1 innings against Cleveland last Tuesday. He has been very solid in August, even though he had a tough schedule, as he faced Cleveland twice, the red hot Yankees and Toronto. Still, Wilson had a 2.36 ERA and 2.96 FIP in those outings! He will be rested for tonight's game with six days of rest and he has been excellent on this kind of spot this season with a 2.66 ERA! I believe the Angels will have a clear SP edge in tonight's game and looking at the fact that they had a day off yesterday, while the Rays had to play a make up game at Kansas City, I believe the LA team has a great chance of pulling the upset tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Angels in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ C. Wilson) @ +127 / 2.27 on 5Dimes

English Premier League Stats Week 2

MLB Premium Play 08/26: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox

MLB - 965 Houston Astros @ 966 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: B. Oberholtzer vs A. Rienzo)

The White Sox have been playing well and they won series at Minnesota, at Kansas City and this weekend they defeated Texas on a big series. Now against the lowly Astros, I expect an emotional letdown. On the other side, Houston almost swept Toronto at home if it wasn't for a blown save. The Astros will start Brett Oberholtzer tonight and he is coming from four good outings, with 3, 2, 0 and 0 earned runs allowed. The most impressive fact is that he faced Baltimore, Boston, Texas and the LA Angels in those outings! The White Sox are red hot on offense right now, but it's not because of a great offense, as the good pitching is the main reason why they've been winning so much lately.

Andre Rienzo will start for the White Sox tonight and he has been decent, even though he has a 10.7% BB%, something that is preventing him from going deep on his outings. Houston is hitting .291 BA against RH pitchers over their last 10 games, they are confident right now and I believe they should be able to make this game competitive against the White Sox that will be on a clear letdown spot tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Houston in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 965 Houston Astros RL +1 (w/ B. Oberholtzer) @ -109 / 1.92 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/26: San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

MLB - 955 San Francisco Giants @ 956 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: B. Zito vs J. Nicasio)

Barry Zito will have another start tonight, but he has no business in being a SP right now. He had another chance against Boston and got crushed with six earned runs allowed in 3.2 innings. His 10.26 ERA, 7.17 FIP and 5.43 xFIP on the second half of the season say it all, with a 14.9% K% and 10.3% BB%! Now at Colorado, I can only expect him to be absolutely crushed tonight.

Juan Nicasio will start for the Rockies and after a good stretch of outings after getting called up from AAA, he had poor advanced numbers on his last two outings with 4.79 FIP + 5.18 xFIP and 6.53 FIP + 5.75 xFIP! San Francisco is #6 in the league versus RH pitchers over the last 14 days with .264 BA, so I believe they will put Nicasio in danger tonight as well. Therefore, I expect a super high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955/956 Over 10,5 (w/ B. Zito & J. Nicasio) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/26: Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 951 Cincinnati Reds @ 952 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: M. Leake vs T. Lyons)

Cincinnati will start Mike Leake tonight, who has been poor lately. He has a 6.26 ERA on his last four starts, while allowing four or more runs in three of these outings. Leake is having an inevitable regression, as his ERA wasn't supported by the advanced numbers. He allowed four, four and seven earned runs in three of his last four games, while his only good start being against San Diego, whose offense struggles a lot against RH pitchers. With a 6.26 ERA, 4.51 FIP and 4.25 xFIP in August, I believe the Cardinals will pound him tonight.

On the other side, Tyler Lyons will start for the Cardinals and he has a 5.09 ERA in seven starts this season. His last outing was last Tuesday at Milwaukee, where he pitched for two innings. He has already faced Cincinnati this season and he heavily struggled with a 6.75 ERA, 7.72 FIP and 4.40 xFIP! He isn't impressing me one bit and I believe the Reds will put in trouble once again tonight. Therefore, I believe both pitchers will struggle in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951/952 Over 9 (w/ M. Leake & T. Lyons) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

English Premier League Play - Chelsea @ Manchester United

English Premier League - Chelsea @ Manchester United

This is the biggest game of the competition until now, so the expectations are quite high for both teams. The totals line of this game has the juice going towards the over, with the expectation that this will be an exciting game. After all, Manchester United scored four goals in Round 1, while Chelsea scored twice on each of the two home games they have already played this season and they looked like they had an extra gear on offense whenever it was needed.

However, tonight's game won't have the same characteristics of the previous games played by these two teams. David Luiz is out for tonight's game and Coach Jose Mourinho will have a defensive back line formed by Ashley Cole, John Terry, Gary Cahill and Branislav Ivanovic. We are talking about an experienced defensive line, but with a clear weakness: lack of speed! I'm not expecting Chelsea to put pressure high on the field like they did against Hull City and Aston Villa, as this would be suicidal against Manchester United. Jose Mourinho knows this and he will adjust to the opponent by refusing to pressure high on the field. What I expect Chelsea to do tonight is to play a patient game by closing the lines, lay back a bit on defense and then try to make some damage by taking advantage of their speed on the front. It seems like Fernando Torres will be on the bench tonight and he will be replaced by Romelu Lukaku or Demba Ba.

On the other side, I don't believe Manchester United will adopt an all-out attitude against Chelsea tonight. After all, David Moyes is new in the team and on his first big clash against Jose Mourinho's teams (Everton didn't fare well versus Chelsea when Mourinho was the HC), so I believe Man United will be prudent tonight as well. Facing Swansea who played wide open against them is one thing, but facing Chelsea is another different thing, as a single error might result in a loss. Both managers arrived to their clubs this season and they won't risk anything early on the season to avoid a loss to a rival so early in the season, as that would be a huge blow on the team morale. Therefore, I expect a boring low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2,75 @ -118 / 1.85 on Pinnacle OR -122 / 1.82 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/25: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB - 929 Boston Red Sox @ 930 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Peavy vs C. Capuano)

Jake Peavy will start for the Red Sox tonight and after a disastrous start at Kansas City when he was red hot, he bounced back well with back to back quality outings at Toronto and San Francisco. His problem this season besides his health has been the homeruns with a 12.1% HR/FB rate and a 46.2% FB%. This is why his bad starts are always a synonym of homeruns allowed. The good news for Peavy today is that he will pitch tonight on an extremely pitcher-friendly park, so he should be fine tonight.

The Dodgers will start Chris Capuano and he is coming from giving up three earned runs in five innings against Miami last Tuesday. He has been struggling lately with 6, 10 and 10 hits allowed on his last three outings, while having poor strikeout numbers, with a combined of 7 strikeouts in 14.1 innings, something that has high pitch counts as a consequence with 16.2, 17.2 and 19.8 P/IP on his last three games. The Dodgers were able to still win these three games because they scored 7, 5 and 6 runs, but I don't think they will be able to do that against Peavy tonight. Boston isn't a top offensive against LH pitchers, but they are hitting above .300 BA vs LHP on their last 10 games and they were able to cause damage on Ryu yesterday. Therefore, I believe Boston has an excellent matchup to win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 929 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Peavy) @ -108 / 1.92 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/25: Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins

MLB - 903 Colorado Rockies @ 904 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. De La Rosa vs J. Turner)

Jacob Turner will start for Miami today and after a 0/6 K/BB ratio at Kansas City, he faced the Dodgers on his last outing and had a 0/5 K/BB ratio! His FIP of 6.04, 6.64 and 11.24 on his last three outings say it all: he is struggling a lot right now! Colorado has already faced Turner this season and he allowed two earned runs in six innings, but I expect the damage to be much bigger today. 

Colorado will start Jorge De La Rosa and he is coming from allowing three runs (two earned) in 6.1 innings against the Phillies on Wednesday. De La Rosa has been very consistent and he has been able to resist to some tough opposition like facing Pittsburgh twice (#4 vs LHP) or San Diego (#5 vs LHP). He has a 3.22 ERA and 3.62 FIP in August, so I believe he will have another decent outing today against the Marlins' poor offense. I see Colorado having a clear SP and offense edges today, so I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. De La Rosa) @ -107 / 1.93 on Betonline

English Premier League Play - Manchester City @ Cardiff City

English Premier League - Manchester City @ Cardiff City

Manchester City was the team that showed the best offensive fluidity on Round 1. They crushed Newcastle on everything: 64% ball possession, 91% pass success rate, 11 shots on target. Their ability to play deep on the wings with Jesus Navas and David Silva is amazing and they're to my the #1 contender to win the EPL this season. For today's game, Vincent Kompany won't play and he will join Stevan Jovetic, Micah Richards and Matija Nastasic on the sidelines. However, Javi Garcia will replace him in today's game by partnering with Joleon Lescott at centre back and he is a fine replacement. Besides that, Cardiff City was extremely poor at West Ham on Round 1 and so, I don't expect them to cause problems to City's defense today.

Cardiff City was unable to create scoring chances against West Ham, with just a couple of decent plays on the second half, even though they ended the game with 56% ball possession. Of course Cardiff won't have such a high percentage of ball possession, while their defense will lack the proper discipline to handle the offensive waves from Manchester City during the whole game. West Ham was able to create 15 build up offensive plays against them, so Manchester City should be able to absolutely crush them with continuous offensive plays throughout the whole match.

I believe Cardiff City will also show some nerves on their home debut today, while Manchester City will want to make a statement in their first road game of the season, after being just the 5th best road team in the league last season, the main reason why they couldn't revalidate their title. Therefore, I'll be taking Manchester City today for an easy win.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Manchester City (-1) @ -131 / 1.76 on Pinnacle OR -135 / 1.74 on Betonline

English Premier League Play - Swansea City @ Tottenham Hotspur

English Premier League - Swansea City @ Tottenham Hotspur

I believe Tottenham is a bit overrated in today's game. Pinnacle has them with a 60% chance of winning, but they had a road game midweek in Georgia for Europa League and they had just lost Gareth Bale to Real Madrid. There is some uncertainty in the team right now and so, their players' mindset isn't 100% locked in right now. They will host Swansea City today and I believe this game has everything to be a high-scoring affair.

Swansea has an offensive mindset and they like to search for the goal no matter the level of their opponent. They faced Manchester United in Round 1 and they still attempted 17 shots, with 14 of them coming from build up plays! They will create chances in this game because they are very good offensively. The problem is that they give a lot of space to their opponents on defense and that's easily attacked by teams with skilled players. Manchester United used Robin van Persie and Danny Welbeck to take advantage of that, while Tottenham will use their quick players (Aaron Lennon, Roberto Soldado and Paulinho) to create a lot of dangerous situations in fast counter moves. Tottenham scored just one goal at Crystal Palace in Round 1, but they had plenty of chances to score. I believe that with both teams having an offensive mindset for today's game and especially good offensive skills, this game will turn into a goals fest and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.5 @ -120 / 1.83 on Pinnacle OR Betonline (same line)

MLB Premium Card 08/24

MLB - 963 Oakland Athletics @ 964 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: J. Parker vs C. Tillman)

Note: early game

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 Oakland Athletics ML (w/ J. Parker) @ +114 / 2.14 on Bovada

MLB - 977 Boston Red Sox @ 978 LA Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lester vs H. Ryu)

Note: early game

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 977 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ Lester) @ +115 / 2.15 on Bovada

MLB - 951 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 952 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: R. Delgado vs E. Martin)

Arizona will start Randall Delgado tonight, who allowed five runs in six innings against Cincinnati on Monday. This was the fourth outing in a row where he didn't have nice numbers with 4.70, 6.89, 5.04 and 6.04 FIP on his last four starts. But there's a big reason for that: his schedule, as he played at Boston, at home against Tampa Bay and Baltimore, and then at Cincinnati. His speed pitches and zone% were the usual for him, but he struggled due to face quality opposition. Now against the inferior offensive team of Philadelphia, I expect him to bounce back.

Ethan Martin will start for the Phillies tonight and he is far from being a good SP. His numbers against RH batters are especially poor, with 6.34 FIP and 4.99 xFIP against them. This is important while facing the Dbacks, as most of their lineup is composed by righties. He has unsustainable rates of 21.0% LD%, 29.0% GB% and 50.0% FB, so I expect Arizona to score a nice number of runs tonight, while picking up a good win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ R. Delgado) @ -112 / 1.89 on 5Dimes

MLB - 971 Texas Rangers @ 972 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Darvish vs H. Santiago)

Yu Darvish will start for the Rangers tonight and he is coming from allowing three earned runs in 7.1 innings against Seattle, while having a 7/4 K/BB ratio. He had five days of rest for tonight's game and I expect him to "bounce back" in here. The only problem Yu has at times is the walks, but the White Sox are the 2nd worst team in the league on BB% with just 6.6%! Therefore, I expect Yu to have another dominant outing tonight!

The White Sox will start Hector Santiago, who is coming from three wins against the Yankees, Detroit and Minnesota, while allowing four, one and one earned runs. However, Santiago's advanced numbers were ugly in those outings with 3.70 FIP + 6.01 xFIP, 4.24 FIP + 5.34 xFIP and 6.92 FIP + 4.77 xFIP! This was caused by some poor control, especially on his last two games, where he had a 1/2 and 3/4 K/BB ratio. His P/IP ratio has been high at the same time, with 19.5, 20.4 and 17.6 P/IP! There's just too many red flags for Santiago in here against a Texas offense that has been crushing LH pitchers lately with .321 BA on their last 10 games against them. Santiago is a flyball pitcher with a 43.4% FB% and a 20.5% Linedrive rate, so he has a terrible combination to pitch against the Rangers at Chicago. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Rangers tonight and so, I'll be taking them on the runline in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Texas Rangers RL -1.5 (w/ Y. Darvish) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

MLB - 973 Los Angeles Angels @ 974 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: J. Vargas vs E. Ramirez)

Jason Vargas will start for the Angels tonight and he has been horrible since he cameback from the DL, with 6.04 FIP + 5.15 xFIP and 8.34 FIP + 4.90 xFIP on his two comeback outings. With fastballs at 86.6 and 86.9 mph, he isn't going far. He struggled at the Yankees who were hitting very well at the time, but struggling at Houston shows that Vargas isn't pitching well at all right now. Therefore, Seattle should be able to put him in trouble tonight as well.

Seattle will start Erasmo Ramirez, who allowed two runs (one earned) against Texas on his last outing. This was his best start of the season, with 13 ground ball outs. I believe he will have a favorable matchup tonight, as the Angels are the 2nd team in the league with more double plays allowed, something that a groundball pitcher will certainly appreciate. Ramirez's only issue has been the homeruns, but after pitching at Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Texas, three stadiums that allow the long-ball quite often, things should be different at Seattle's pitcher-friendly stadium. I see Seattle having a clear SP edge in tonight's game and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 974 Seattle Mariners ML (w/ E. Ramirez) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bovada

WNBA Free Premium Plays 08/24

WNBA - 601 Indiana Fever @ 602 Minnesota Lynx

Projected Line: Minnesota by 6 points

This is a poor spot for Minnesota, who had a hectic schedule as of late:

08/16 vs TUL

08/18 vs NY

08/20 @ATL

08/22 @ CON

08/24 vs IND

This is five games in nine days, with the last four games forcing them to travel. As always, even though it was an easy game for them, Minnesota had three of their starters on court for over 32 minutes yesterday at Connecticut. On the other hand, Indiana saw the return of Shavonte Zellous on their last game against San Antonio that they comfortably won. Indiana's defense is a tough matchup for Minnesota, as even though they are undersized, the Fever had a great team help defense and they allowed almost as fewer points in the paint to their opponents as Minnesota. Indiana is #5 in the league on paint defense with 31.1 ppg allowed, while Minnesota is #4 with 30.8 ppg allowed. If we combine this with Minnesota's poor spot, Indiana's defense should have a good performance tonight.

On the other side, the Fever's offense had some games where they struggled by averaging 68.8 points on a span of five games, but these were the game where Zellous didn't play. Now with her back on court, Indiana gets an immediate boost on offense. The Fever don't have a lot of depth and so, when a key player is out, they immediately struggle. This isn't the case tonight and therefore, I expect Indiana to be competitive tonight. So, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601 Indiana Fever (+9,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

WNBA - 603 Chicago Sky @ 604 Atlanta Dream

Projected Line: 158 points

Chicago locked a playoff spot yesterday with a win against New York, so I believe they will be a bit relaxed tonight and this means less effort on defense. The Sky's game went Under yesterday, but it wasn't because of their offense, as they scored 82 points. Their starters didn't play a lot with Courtney Vandersloot being on the floor the most with 26 minutes. Chicago was a period of poor offense that coincided with their rookie Elena Delle Donne being banged up, but she has recovered and with her, the Sky's offense also recovered by averaging an offensive rate of 105.3 on their last seven games!

So, the question in here will be Atlanta's offense, who scored just 64 points at Washington last night, mostly thanks to a 1-18 3pts mark and with their start Angel McCoughtry shooting just 6-20 FG! But the Dream are a completely different team at home, as while they average just a 92.4 offensive rating on the road, they average 106.4 at home! Therefore, I expect Atlanta to bounce back offensively tonight by being more aggressive with more free throws and fast break points. I expect a relatively fast paced game in here, with both teams having nice offensive outcomes tonight, so I'll be taking the Over on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603/604 Over 154 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

English Premier League Pick: Sunderland @ Southampton

English Premier League - Sunderland @ Southampton 

If there was a team that didn't deserve to lose in Round 1 and a team that won but with a lot of luck, then we are talking about Sunderland and Southampton respectively. Sunderland created several chances against Fulham and they had 21 shots during the game! They showed good offensive dynamic with Jozy Altidore and the playmaker Emanuele Giaccherini, but they just couldn't shoot the ball on target. They eventually allowed a goal on the only shot on target that Fulham had and it was on a corner back, a set piece. For today's game, Craig Gardner and David Vaughan return from suspensions to boost what was looking like a rather thin squad last week. The former should play at right-back ahead of Ondrej Celustka.

The opposite happened with Southampton on Round 1. They won their game with a late penalty scored by Rickie Lambert at WBA. They spent a lot of money on the offseason, especially with the acquisitions of Pablo Osvaldo and Victor Wanyama. This is why they are overrated right now. The integration of the new players takes time and Southampton doesn't deserve to have a 60% chance of winning today's game. Therefore, I see excellent value on Sunderland today on the handicap and so, I'll take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Sunderland (+1) @ -118 / 1.85 on Pinnacle OR @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

English Premier League Pick: West Ham United @ Newcastle United

English Premier League - West Ham United @ Newcastle United 

Newcastle had a terrible preseason that included two draws against two Portuguese teams (Paços Ferreira and Sporting Braga). They were also completely outclassed by Manchester City last Monday on Round 1, but that wasn't a big surprise given the quality of City. However, it's important to note that Steven Taylor was sent off in that game and so, he will be suspended for today's game. Besides that, their best center midfielder Yohan Cabaye will be out of today's game as well. The books are giving them a 42% chance of winning today, but I think that's too much given their current form.

West Ham is coming from a solid win against Cardiff in Round 1. They are a team made to play in counter moves with fast transitions to the offense. They had that attitude at home against Cardiff, where they had just 44% of ball possession, but where they would try to steal the ball as soon as possible and use fast transitions. This was how they shot the ball 18 times during the game! I expect the same attitude from West Ham today. Newcastle will try to assume the game, as they will be playing at home and West Ham will love that. Newcastle struggled on defense against Manchester City, especially on both sides, and even though Joe Cole isn't as dangerous as Jesus Navas, he is coming from an excellent performance against Cardiff and he will be a constant threat to Newcastle today. Therefore, I see good value on West Ham today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on West Ham United (+0.25) @ -109 / 1.92 on Pinnacle OR @ -111 / 1.90 on 5Dimes

English Premier League Preview: Crystal Palace @ Stoke City

Round 2 Preview - Crystal Palace @ Stoke City (3:00PM BST - 10:00AM EST)

We are in front of two teams that were clearly outclassed on Round 1 against stronger opposition. Therefore, the score of 0-1 that both teams had in their games doesn't fully express the struggles that both Stoke City and Crystal Palace had in those matches. Stoke City has been great at home, but they are currently in a transition mode with new Head Coach Mark Hughes wanting to introduce a playing style less based on "kick and rush" like Stoke City used to have over the last few seasons. Midfielder Wilson Palacios will be out of today's game.

Crystal Palace had a very passive attitude against Tottenham, even though they were playing at home. Their lack of fluidity on offense from both teams was clear in Round 1, something that makes me perhaps believe that a low scoring game may happen in here today. However, the totals line are already expressing that with a 2.25 line, besides the fact that I doubt that both teams will show the same mindset today that they showed last week. I believe they will be more aggressive and they'll at least try to play a more open style of soccer this time around.

English Premier League Pick - Everton vs West Bromwich Albion

English Premier League - Everton vs West Bromwich Albion

Everton was the team in Round 1 that had the highest ball possession in a game with 67% and that happened on a road game for them! That might look weird for a non-top team like Everton, but that's the philosophy of their new Head Coach Roberto Martinez. They created a lot of chances on build up plays against Norwich, but they struggled in being effective in those. They scored two goals, but they should have score even more! This playing style will be especially important for them on their home games like today's, where their opponents will adapt a defensive style and so, Everton will need to know how to play high on the field. They know how to play like that, so they shouldn't have problems in putting a lot of pressure on WBA today.

WBA was outclassed at home against Southampton in Round 1. They were a huge surprise at the start of the past season, as they were 3rd in the league table after 13 games, but then they won just one game of their last ten! Their offensive dynamic has been terrible and it only got worse with Nicolas Anelka deciding to abandon soccer out of nowhere. Without him, WBA lost their "best striker". By the way, Centre Back Sylvain Distin is also doubtful for today. I don't believe WBA will be able to put problems on Everton's defense today, which is their weakest area. With WBA lacking firepower without Anelka, Everton will take advantage of their much superior class over WBA to get an easy today on their home opener.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Everton (-0.75) @ -143 / 1.70 on Pinnacle OR @ -147 / 1.68 on 5Dimes

English Premier League Preview: Arsenal @ Fulham

Round 2 Preview - Arsenal @ Fulham 

Books are giving Arsenal a 50% winning chance on today's game, but I wouldn't have problems in taking the Gunners to bounce back today after their loss against Aston Villa, especially when Fulham was one of the least impressive teams in the whole league during Round 1. Sure that Fulham won their game, but they scored their goal on a set piece play that was their only shot on target during the whole match! Maarten Stekelenburg and Kieran Richardson are out for today's game and Fulham's lack of speed on front with Dimitar Berbatov as a starter will be a relief for Arsenal who heavily struggled with Villa's quick strikers.

The problem is that Arsenal had a Champions League game midweek in Turkey, where they won but they also spent a lot of energy. Their roster doesn't have a lot of depth and with Laurent Koscielny suspended, Coach Wenger will need to put Bacary Sagna as a Centre Back, something that doesn't give me a lot of confidence. Fatigue can be an issue on this lunchtime kick-off game for Arsenal that removes my fade alert factor for Fulham today.