Projected Line: Golden State by 5 points
Toronto lost at home against Cleveland in a buzzer beat shot from Kyrie Irving. The Raptors showed strong interior play, with Ed Davis and Amir Johnson combining for 34 points and 21 rebounds, while on the other side, Cleveland used their backcourt to pound the Raptors's defense. The Cavaliers ended the game with 11-21 FG on isolation plays, in a clear sign of poor on-ball defense from the Raptors and their good backcourt play was enough for them to win a very close game at the end. On the other hand, Golden State lost at Milwaukee, in a game where they had shot better than Milwaukee, but they committed a lot of turnovers and got completely outrebounded by the Bucks. However, I expect Golden State to show more effort on rebounding tonight:
"We know who we are, and we know what we have to do to win ballgames," Warriors head coach Mark Jackson said. "Somehow, with a lack of size on the floor at times, we've found a way to be very successful during the course of the season. It's a fact that we can get it done. "When we don't, it's not due to a lack of size. It's because of a lack of effort and commitment."
It won't be hard for Golden State to bounce back on rebounding tonight, as Toronto isn't a good offensive rebounding team (#21 with 25.2% offensive rebound rate). After a good run of nice defense, Toronto's defense is struggling again, with their pick and roll ball handler defense regressing, just like their cuts and transition defense as well. Not only their regressed on their backcourt defense, as they can't protect the paint, with an average of 50.3 points in the paint allowed over their last eight games. Therefore, Golden State's offense won't have problems in scoring tonight. David Lee and Carl Landry won't have tough matchups on offense against Ed Davis and Amir Johnson, while Toronto's perimeter defense won't cause problems to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Toronto's defense is #24 on spot up defense and #26 on cuts defense, two areas where Golden State's offense is #1 and #3 in the league respectively.
While Golden State's offense won't have problems in pounding the Raptors down low, the same thing will happen on the opposite side, as Golden State isn't a good interior team. However, with a better effort from the Warriors on rebounds, Toronto won't have such an easy matchup on this area tonight. Kyle Lowry is banged up and this will force Jose Calderon to play heavy minutes and this should result in him struggling, especially on defense against the Stephen Curry/Jarrett Jack PG combo. I believe the Warriors have in here a good bounce back spot against a Raptors team that isn't physical enough to cause problems to Golden State. What Toronto does well, Golden State simply does it better and so, I expect them to have a comfortable win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Golden State Warriors (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment