NBA Free Premium Play 11/30: Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies

Brooklyn  at Memphis

NBA - 705 Brooklyn Nets @ 706 Memphis Grizzlies Free Premium Play Brooklyn had absolutely no chance last night at Houston. First of all, Brooklyn has been struggling on pick and roll ball handling defense where they are dead last in the league, while their transition defense is also poor due to their lack of foot speed that also causes them problems on closing out the shooters. Therefore, Houston took advantage of that to torch them apart with 5-6 FG (3-4 3pts) on pick and roll ball handler plays, 14 fast break points with 4-7 FG on transition and 19-32 3pts with a great 15-28 FG on spot up plays! Kevin Garnett didn't play yesterday, but he should play tonight, while Brook Lopez returned yesterday but played only 21 minutes, so he should be fine for tonight as well. The Nets will now play at Memphis and I expect them to have some rest on defense tonight, as Memphis's offense lacks the characteristics to crush Brooklyn like Houston did last night. Memphis's outside shooting is poor and very inconsistent. This is why they are just #29 on spot ups. The Grizzlies have been adopting a grind out style lately and so, their transition game is also gone, even though they actually scored 18 fast break points on their last game. The Grizzlies' offense without Marc Gasol needs some time to adjust. They managed a nice performance at Boston due to a great 25-31 FT and some dominance down low against Boston's poor interior defense. This won't happen tonight against Brooklyn with Brook Lopez and Kevin Garnett back in the lineup together for the first time in a while. Therefore, I believe the Nets will be competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Brooklyn Nets (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 11/29

NBA - 501 Milwaukee Bucks @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #1

Charlotte is coming from a home loss against Indiana, where they showed once again that they defend well, but they couldn't do anything on offense against the Pacers' elite defense! The Bobcats were forced to settle into jump shots and they can't win games playing like that:

“They’re so good and so long that you don’t get any easy ones to get you started offensively", Bobcats coach Steve Clifford said. "So everything was pull-up jump shots."

Al Jefferson still managed to produce some offense with 7-15 FG and 15 points, but the team's guards struggled against Indiana's defense with 8-27 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-9 3pts! Charlotte couldn't do anything on pick and rolls (4-23 FG & 0.44 PPP), so they couldn't do anything special on offense overall. On the other hand, Charlotte's defense showed once again that they are excellent in protecting the paint! Even a good team like Indiana struggled to score down low against them with 12-26 FG! The key would have to be the Pacers' outside shooting, who struggled during the first three quarters, but then woke up in the final quarter with C.J. Watson making five treys in a row and with the team making seven of their ten treys in that quarter!

Milwaukee finally managed to be competitive, but they lost on overtime at home against Washington. However, I saw some improvements on offense from that: more movement off the ball, better screens that also gave them better outside shooting numbers with 10-25 3pts and 11-22 FG from 16-23 feet! The problem for them has been their lack of inside scoring and with them having no easy points down low, they become a jump shooting team who isn't aggressive with just 10 FT attempts. They also commit too many turnovers, with Brandon Knight screwing things up down the stretch on a poor performance: 2-12 FG and 5 turnovers! On the other hand, Marcin Gortat dominated with 11-12 FG!

The Bucks will then play at Charlotte tonight and the Bobcats have a nice spot for an offensive bounce back. They are coming from facing the best defensive team in the league and they will now face Milwaukee, so Al Jefferson will immediately have a much better matchup down low against the Bucks' poor interior defense than he had against Indiana's elite interior defense. Marcin Gortat destroyed them and even on the last game between these two teams, Al Jefferson dominated them with 8-15 FG and 19 points in 25 minutes! Also Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson will have a better matchup, after shooting a combined of 6-32 FG against the Pacers. Milwaukee's pick and roll defense is one of the worst in the league and the Bobcats have already taken advantage of that this season with 12-24 FG on pick and rolls in the previous game between these two teams. Charlotte scored 96 points in that game, while using their second unit for most of the fourth quarter and having a poor 15-27 FT mark! If it wasn't for that, they would have had their best offensive game of the season in that game! They will have a nice matchup to be effective on offense and so, I expect them to take advantage of that!

The difference on tonight's game in comparison to the first game played between these two teams should be on Milwaukee's performance on offense. In that first game, they scored just 72 points, but they were on a back to back spot and they had gone to overtime at Washington the night before. Milwaukee has changed its lineup meanwhile to generate more offense and their offensive flow is definitely improved. I took the Over in that game with the assumption that Milwaukee would have some edge on outside shooting against Charlotte's poor perimeter defense, but they struggled with 16-49 FG from +10 feet shots! Things will be different tonight and so, I expect this game to be a relatively high scoring one. I'm taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 182.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 519 New Orleans Pelicans @ 520 Philadelphia 76ers

Play #2

Philadelphia is coming from a loss in Orlando, where the main reason for their loss was their lack of interior defense that allow Nikola Vucevic and Glen Davis to have a combined of 40 points, 19-28 FG, 21 rebounds and 6 assists against them! Philadelphia had a nice edge on pick and rolls and mid-range shooting, but that wasn't enough due to their lack of aggressiveness and transition game throughout the whole game. The Sixers will now face a Pelicans team that absolutely crushed them at New Orleans by 98-135 earlier in the season, even though Philadelphia was in a horrible spot in that game, as they were playing their third game in four nights, having also played the night before, and with the first game of this stretch of games being at home against Houston, in a super fast paced game that went to overtime. Also the fact that Michael Carter-Williams didn't play helped the Pelicans to crush the Sixers in that game.

The way the Pelicans defend is prone to have problems against teams like Philadelphia, who attempt a ton of treys, like to attack in transition and the rim as well. New Orleans's defense is just #26 in the league on transition defense with 1.18 PPP allowed, #21 on 3pts defense with 37.5% 3pts defense and #22 on rim defense with 60% FG allowed. Therefore, I believe the Sixers' offense will have an excellent spot on offense tonight. Curiously, the same happens with the Pelicans' offense against Philadelphia's defense and that's something normal given the 135 points scored by New Orleans on the first game played between these two teams this season. The Sixers have no interior defense, their transition defense is non-existent and the Pelicans are #4 in the league in fast break points scored per game with 17.3 points! I believe both offenses will have a dream matchup in here given the poor defenses that they will face tonight and so, I believe this game will be a super high scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519/520 Over 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 505 Miami Heat @ 506 Toronto Raptors

Play #3

Toronto is coming from a home loss against the Nets, even though this was their third good offensive game in a row, with an offensive rating higher than 110! However, these three good performances were against Philadelphia, Washington and Brooklyn. Their pick and rolls worked well on these games, but then again they will now face Miami who is an elite team on pick and roll defense. The Raptors will have a good edge on rebounding where they are #1 in the league and Miami is a subpar team on this area due to their undersized lineup. However, this will be Toronto's only edge tonight, as Miami's overall defense has been great lately by averaging a defensive rating of 97.8 over their last six games!

"Our defense has been better, certainly much better from those first few games of the season," coach Erik Spoelstra said. "Not only the activity, but the focus and commitment -- finishing plays, even on the glass, the way we started the season is not the type of habit we want to create. We know we're going to have to continue to try to get better, there's thing we can clean up. But the guys have been engaged and we're using our depth and the guys are playing hard."

On the other hand, Toronto's defense has been great in preventing fast breaks and in making good close outs, as they are #7 in the league on 3pts defense with 33.7% 3pts allowed. Toronto had a relaxed attitude on defense against Brooklyn on their last game and they lost the game because of that. They will certainly show a better attitude on defense tonight. I expect a slow paced game tonight, as Miami doesn't play fast and Toronto has the size edge in here, so they'll try to play it slow to try to clearly outrebound Miami tonight. On a slow paced game and with both teams showing good defense lately (barring Toronto's last game), I believe this game will actually be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 507 Dallas Mavericks @ 508 Atlanta Hawks

Play #4

Atlanta really didn't have a shot at Houston, on a bad physical spot for them and with no depth on the backcourt. To make things worse for them, Jeff Teague had a poor game with 0-5 FG and 3 turnovers, so Houston crushed them even without James Harden and with Jeremy Lin playing just 4 minutes due to injury. The Rockets shot 14-27 3pts! Atlanta will return home tonight to face Dallas, with Louis Williams and Selvin Mack being back, even though Kyle Korver will be still out. Atlanta's inconsistency on their rotations due to several injuries is also making them struggle on both ends of the floor and they'll have to change their rotations once again.

I believe Dallas has a good matchup in here. They lost three games against Boston, Orlando and Houston, with these last two teams being jump shooting teams like Dallas. The Mavericks have been struggling a bit lately, but they are also facing tough opposition, as they played against Houston, Denver and Golden State in four of their last five games! We know that Dallas struggles on interior defense, but Atlanta without Kyle Korver won't be a threat at all on their outside shooting, so Dallas will be able to protect the basket better and even putting some zone defense on the floor like they did against Denver. The Mavericks will also have a considerable bench edge, something that was the key for them to win their last game against the Warriors, even though Monta Ellis had a poor 2-16 FG game. I believe Dallas is the better team from the two and they have a nice matchup edge tonight as well, so I'll take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Dallas Mavericks ML @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 510 Boston Celtics

Play #5

One more game played and Cleveland's offense keeps being miserable! They were unable once again this time at home against Miami to reach the 20-assists mark. It was the eight game in a row for them where they couldn't reach that mark! MySynergy says it all about their offense: most used play with 18% of volume was isolations! For today's game, the scenario won't be better for them as Boston's defense led by Avery Bradley is a good unit on perimeter defense! They are also decent on pick and roll defense, with their main weakness being on interior defense, something that Cleveland's offense doesn't do often as they lack the offensive flow to feed their big men down low!

Boston lost against Memphis at home on their last game, in a normal loss in my opinion as I took Memphis in that game. The Grizzlies were solid on offense with 25-31 FT and just eight turnovers committed. Boston had a monster edge on offensive rebounding with 17 offensive rebounds and guards play that kept them in the game almost until the very end. For tonight's game, both defenses are clearly better than their offenses right now. That's clear from Cleveland's slide, while Boston's offense is very inconsistent due to their outside shooting. They are actually coming from two nice 3pts shooting performances with 9-20 and 7-20 3pts, but that's not the general rule for them and just like it happens with Cleveland, they struggle in generating good looks. Both teams are in the bottom 5 regarding assists rate and I believe this will be another game for both teams where they'll struggle to generate good looks and so, they will shoot a bunch of contested shots that they'll miss. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 517 Washington Wizards @ 518 Indiana Pacers

Play #6

Indiana's defense just keeps being amazing in protecting the rim. Any time they face a team that has no outside shooting ability and that needs to score near the basket, they get crushed by Indiana, as they don't allow points near their rim. It's not like good outside shooting teams are doing much better against the Pacers this season, but teams with no outside shooting skills are getting absolutely crushed by Indiana. 

The Pacers are coming from six games where they faced Chicago (#22 with 32.7% 3pts), the NY Knicks (#25 with 32.0% 3pts), Boston (#20 with 33.0% 3pts), Philadelphia (#23 with 32.3% 3pts), Minnesota (#24 with 32.3% 3pts) and Charlotte (#28 with 31.0% 3pts), while they will face Washington tonight, who is #8 in the league with 38.6% 3pts! As we can see, the Pacers have been facing poor outside shooting teams, while Washington is a much more dangerous team on this area, even though they are playing without Bradley Beal right now. Washington's offense doesn't need to create a lot of shots near the basket, as even their frontcourt formed by Marcin Gortat and Nene Hilario is capable of shooting well from mid-range. Therefore, it's possible that Indiana won't have the stellar defensive numbers that they generally generate on every single game.

On the other side, Indiana will face a Wizards defense that is very far from being an elite one in protecting the paint and that isn't defending well long range shooting at all with 68-172 (39.5%) 3pts allowed over their last seven games! Indiana's outside shooting is streaky, but they are currently on a good run now with 18-40 (45%) 3pts on their last two games and they will extend this run tonight another good performance against a poor Washington perimeter defense. Therefore, I believe this game will be a relatively high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Over 186,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 521 New York Knicks @ 522 Denver Nuggets

Plays #7 & 8

Denver is one of the most improved teams in the league lately! They are now playing much better in both ends of the floor, but especially on offense where they have been surprising me! I took them on their last two games and they won both games straight up! The biggest highlight of this improvement is being how tough their schedule has been lately with games against Houston, Oklahoma City, Chicago, Dallas twice and Minnesota! They are using a lot of pick and rolls to take advantage of Ty Lawson's speed, while running in transition a lot and attacking the basket as usual. I expect the Knicks' defense to get crushed tonight against Denver's offense. The NY team is just #29 on transition defense, #27 on pick and roll ball handler defense and with an out of form Raymond Felton returning on the team's last game, he will get completely outplayed by Ty Lawson's quickness.

On the other hand, the Knicks' bench is completely off sync right now with Amare Stoudemire, Metta World Peace and J.R. Smith. The only player who could actually stabilize the second unit would be Pablo Prigioni, but he is barely getting playing time these days. The Knicks won't be able to handle the red hot Nuggets and they will get crushed tonight. I don't understand why they aren't double digits underdogs on this game and so, I'll be taking Denver tonight. As I believe the Nuggets will have a big offensive game tonight, while the Knicks via Carmelo Anthony will also score a respectable amount of points in here, I'll be also taking the Over in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Denver Nuggets (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Preview 11/29: San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic

NBA - 503 San Antonio Spurs @ 504 Orlando Magic

San Antonio was so used to face lowly teams (besides Memphis, but even in that case Marc Gasol got injured mid-game) that they struggled in adjusting to face a top team like Oklahoma City, especially regarding game intensity. If Tim Duncan was struggling in being efficient against bad teams, he was completely crushed by Serge Ibaka. San Antonio uses to create a bunch of easy shots down low, but they managed to shoot just 16-32 (50%) FG at the rim against the Thunder, while they struggled on their outside shooting. On the other side, Orlando defeated Philadelphia at home on a game where both Nikola Vucevic and Glen Davis crushed the Sixers' interior defense in the first half with 8-8 FG and 5-7 FG! With Spencer Hawes out, Orlando took advantage of that to pound the Sixers down low with 52 points in the paint, while Vucevic and Davis had a combined of 40 points, 19-28 FG, 21 rebounds and even six assists! Philadelphia had a nice edge on pick and rolls and on mid-range shooting, but they weren't aggressive with their starters shooting just 4-4 FT! 

The Spurs will now come from facing a tough Thunder defense with active hands and Serge Ibaka protecting the rim into facing an Orlando defense, with a poor perimeter defense. So, this is a perfect bounce back for the Spurs! Orlando's pick and roll defense has been terrible by being just #25 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.81 PPP allowed. After struggling against Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker will have a dream matchup tonight! Jameer Nelson is a game time decision for the Magic tonight and while Orlando started the season defending well the opposing treys, they allowed 58-149 (39%) 3pts over their last six games! I expect the Spurs to bounce back on this area as well tonight.

Orlando likes to play at a fast paced tempo, with a jump shooting style, even though with Glen Davis and Nikola Vucevic together on the frontcourt they have a stronger presence down low. Orlando shoots a lot of mid-range jumpers with some success and this is something that the Spurs' defense want their opponents to do, so Orlando has a nice matchup in here. The Magic started and ended the game well against Philadelphia, but when the Sixers were able to run their second unit out, Orlando had no answer. One of San Antonio's strengths is their ability to throw different lineups on the court at different moments of the game. Orlando is a limited in how to adjust to new situations because their key players are on court for 35 minutes per game or more every single time. Therefore, I expect San Antonio to have a clear bounce back game on offense tonight by crushing Orlando's defense. On the other hand, the Magic's offense should be also able to make some production on offense in here. Therefore, I expect a Spurs blowout tonight on a high scoring contest.

NOTE: both potential plays were scratched!

NBA Free Premium Play 11/29: Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors

Miami  at Toronto

NBA - 505 Miami Heat @ 506 Toronto Raptors Play #3 Toronto is coming from a home loss against the Nets, even though this was their third good offensive game in a row, with an offensive rating higher than 110! However, these three good performances were against Philadelphia, Washington and Brooklyn. Their pick and rolls worked well on these games, but then again they will now face Miami who is an elite team on pick and roll defense. The Raptors will have a good edge on rebounding where they are #1 in the league and Miami is a subpar team on this area due to their undersized lineup. However, this will be Toronto's only edge tonight, as Miami's overall defense has been great lately by averaging a defensive rating of 97.8 over their last six games! "Our defense has been better, certainly much better from those first few games of the season," coach Erik Spoelstra said. "Not only the activity, but the focus and commitment -- finishing plays, even on the glass, the way we started the season is not the type of habit we want to create. We know we're going to have to continue to try to get better, there's thing we can clean up. But the guys have been engaged and we're using our depth and the guys are playing hard." On the other hand, Toronto's defense has been great in preventing fast breaks and in making good close outs, as they are #7 in the league on 3pts defense with 33.7% 3pts allowed. Toronto had a relaxed attitude on defense against Brooklyn on their last game and they lost the game because of that. They will certainly show a better attitude on defense tonight. I expect a slow paced game tonight, as Miami doesn't play fast and Toronto has the size edge in here, so they'll try to play it slow to try to clearly outrebound Miami tonight. On a slow paced game and with both teams showing good defense lately (barring Toronto's last game), I believe this game will actually be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 13 Premium Card 11/28

NFL Week 13 - 303 Green Bay Packers @ 304 Detroit Lions

Play #1

I feel that this is a statement game for Detroit. They haven't won a Thanksgiving game since 2003 and they have also a rare opportunity to win their division. The spot also clearly favors the Lions today, as they are on a home-home spot, while the Packers are coming from a home game in the cold against Minnesota where the whole overtime was played. Aaron Rodgers will be once again out, so Matt Flynn will start in front of him after a positive second half against the Vikings last Sunday. Even though Flynn was decent last week, he faced a terrible Vikings secondary and things should be tougher for him today. As the Packers' passing game will be far from being at its best as Rodgers will once again be out of this game, they will need an effective running game performance and that won't be easy for them, given the Lions have allowed just 104 rushing yards on their three games since their bye week on 53 carries on a combined of 1.96 yards per carry! This is also confirmed by their run defense DVOA, who shows that they had -26.6%, -37.7%, -62.0%, -47.7% and -74.5% on their last five games!Therefore, Eddie Lacy will struggle in here, something that will put pressure on Flynn who will have to deal with a bunch of third and longs. 

On the other hand, Green Bay's defense hasn't been great this season and if they were at least being an elite rushing defense at the start of the season, that also isn't true anymore since week 8. They had an average run defense DVOA of -15.9% on their first six games of the season, but a poor +18.9% on their last five games. The Packers lost both Casey Hayward and James Dixon for the season last Sunday and this removed their secondary depth a lot for the rest of the season! Detroit is coming from a kamikaze game against Tampa Bay, where they surprisingly lost due to their five turnovers! The 5-0 TO margin was the only area where the Bucs were better than the Lions, as Detroit had the edge with 25-10 on first downs and 390-229 on total yards. Not only I believe Detroit will be a bit more careful this time around to avoid turnovers, as Green Bay is dead last in the league with just 4 interceptions, so I don't believe the Lions will commit so many errors in here. The Lions lost at Green Bay by 9-22 earlier in the season, but Matthew Stafford didn't have both Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson available for that game, while Aaron Rodgers was still playing for the Packers. Things will be much different this time around and I believe Detroit will get revenge and make a good statement today with a big win over their rivals. I'm taking the Lions in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 304 Detroit Lions (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NFL Week 13 - 305 Oakland Raiders @ 306 Dallas Cowboys

Play #2

Dallas is currently struggling with a lot of important injuries at the linebacker position and this is being quite obvious especially on their rush defense. If they started the season with a nice -22.8% DVOA rush defense on their first seven games of the season, they severely regressed on their last four games with +28.2% DVOA! Oakland will now start QB Matt McGloin, who is coming another decent performance against Tennessee, where he had 19/32, 260 yards, 7.1 Y/P and 1/1 TD/INT. Since their bye week, Oakland's running game has also been looking decent with +5.7%, +33.7%, +31.3%, +12.9% and -7.7%! Therefore, Oakland has definitely a nice chance of having a good offensive performance against a Dallas's defense that has DE DeMarcus Ware banged up and LB Sean Lee, LB Justin Durant and CB Morris Claiborne possibly all out with injuries.

On the other side, Oakland's pass defense has been very inconsistent since their bye week. They shutdown Ben Roethlisberger, then allowed 7 TD passes to Nick Foles, bounced back against the NY Giants and Houston (two poor pass offenses) and last week they struggled against Tennessee with a +20.3% pass defense DVOA! When the Raiders allow a QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick to have 30/42, 320 yards and 2/0 TD/INT, this is a big worry for the future. Tennessee only scored 23 points in that game because they went 1-4 on the red zone, something unlikely to happen with Tony Romo and the Cowboys, as Dallas is #2 in the league on red zone scoring percentage (TD only) with 65%, only behind Denver. Therefore, I expect this game to be a high scoring one, with both offenses showing decent efficiency and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 305/306 Over 47 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NFL Week 13 - 307 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 308 Baltimore Ravens

Play #3

Looking at the overall DVOA numbers of both teams lately, Pittsburgh had -31.6% against New England (blowout loss), but then they bounced back really well on their last three games with +37.2% against Buffalo, +23.8% against Detroit and +38.8% against Cleveland! On the other hand, Baltimore had -6.2% on a loss at Cleveland (where Jason Campbell had a huge game with 23/35, 262 yards and 3/0 TD/INT), then -2.9% DVOA on an overtime win at home against Cincinnati, -17.3% on an overtime loss at Chicago and finally last week, they had a nice +23.4% DVOA on an easy home win against the NY Jets, in a game where Geno Smith struggled big time. 

However, there is an area where the Steelers should have the upperhand on this matchup between two teams with similar levels. Joe Flacco was sacked 5 times against Cleveland, 5 times against Cincinnati, 3 times against Chicago and 4 times against the Jets, for a combined of 17 sacks in just four games! On the other side, the Steelers may be just #27 in the league with 23 total sacks this season, but they sacked Tom Brady three times, E.J. Manuel three times as well, Matthew Stafford twice and five sacks to Cleveland's QB's last week. That's a combined of 13 sacks on their last four games, while they had just had 10 sacks on their first seven games of the season! I believe Ben Roethlisberger is playing a bit better than Joe Flacco as of late and with the Steelers putting pressure on Flacco tonight, I believe Pittsburgh is being underrated on this contest and they are right now in my opinion a bit better than the Ravens. Therefore, I'll be taking the Steelers in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 307 Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bovada

NBA Premium Card 11/27

NBA - 701 Indiana Pacers @ 702 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #1

Indiana is coming from a home win against Minnesota, where they did what they had to do. They defended well and took away the Wolves' 3-point line, the paint and the transition game. Therefore, all the Wolves' offense had left were contested shots. Minnesota ended the game with 13-25 FG near the basket, 3-19 3pts and 4-12 FG & 0.56 PPP on transitions. The Wolves dominated the boards and had grabbed some free throws, but as soon as Indiana got their head together, they crushed Minnesota. Indiana had their usual moments of sloppiness with turnovers, but they still shot 50% FG and 8-15 3pts!

Charlotte is coming from a home loss against Boston, who had 40% volume on pick and roll ball handler plays and spot ups. Assuming that Al Jefferson will play tonight, he will struggle against Roy Hibbert, as the later is #2 in the league on post up defense according to mysynergy sports. With the struggles that the Bobcats always have with their outside shooting, they will only have their pick and roll game, where Indiana's defense is #13 in the league with 0.74 PPP allowed. However, Indiana with their length might force turnovers to the Bobcats. Both teams have excellent interior defense, and while this isn't a surprise for the Pacers, it is for the Charlotte who have allowed just 50.8% FG at the rim over their last seven games! So, the Pacers' perimeter will also need to make some shots from the outside to compensate this. Even though Indiana is coming from a nice outside game against Minnesota, they are quite inconsistent on their perimeter shooting and I struggle to believe that they will have another good game on this area tonight. Therefore, I expect an ugly game tonight with both teams struggling on offense and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 181,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 703 Philadelphia 76ers @ 704 Orlando Magic

Play #2

Orlando is coming from a great win at Atlanta last night, however they will be playing their fourth game in five nights tonight. For a jump shooting team, this is a big worry. Yesterday on their blowout win against the Hawks, only Arron Afflalo played over 32 minutes with 36 minutes played. Anyway, looking at the way Orlando's offense plays with pick and rolls and post ups, Philadelphia's defense isn't nothing special in those areas, so Orlando may have in theory a nice edge on offense tonight, even though they are on a poor spot.

On the other hand, Thaddeus Young is returning to the Sixers' lineup and he will bring more offensive power to the frontcourt. The team also had 3 days off to rest and prepare this game, so they will have a huge physical edge over Orlando tonight. Philadelphia's offense depends a lot from their transition game and from the way that they attack the rim. Orlando's defense is #11 against transitions with 1.08 PPP, but they are allowing 15.3 fast break points per game over the last 7 games. Also Jameer Nelson will heavily struggle in guarding Michael Carter-Williams and even though there might be a switch on Orlando's defense, then Evan Turner will be guarded by Jameer Nelson and the edge will always be on the Sixers side. I believe Philadelphia has a great spot in here, given their huge physical edge tonight and so, I'll be taking them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Philadelphia 76ers (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 705 Memphis Grizzlies @ 706 Boston Celtics

Play #3

Memphis is coming from a home loss against Houston, where they were phenomenal on defense over the first three quarters of the game. They knew Houston was a massive threat with their outside shooting and so, they put a lot of pressure on the perimeter to defend them. This is why Houston shot 6-24 3pts and 7-21 FG on spot up plays, while they were also forced to committ 22 turnovers! Then, on the fourth quarter, with Dwight Howard in the bench and with Omer Asik on the floor, the Grizzlies forgot to close the paint and Houston focused on attacking the open space down the basket. This is why Houston scored 52 points in the paint and shot 25-39 FG from 9 feet of the basket or closer! Tony Allen said it all after the game:

“We had a great game plan. We did it for three quarters. They just turned into a different team once they sat their starters” Tony Allen said after the loss.

Memphis on offense kept struggling on their outside shooting, an area where they need to improve now that Marc Gasol is out. However, the Grizzlies still had some success down low, as Kostas Koufos is still a fine player, even though he lacks Gasol's overall quality.

Boston managed to get a nice win at Charlotte on a weird game. Avery Bradley played just 9 minutes due to foul trouble and so, he couldn't stop Kemba Walker, who had 11-17 FG and 28 points, with excellent pick and roll numbers. For some reason, Boston's bench was the key factor on this win. Courtney Lee, Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace and Phil Pressey had great +/- numbers! Even though Boston shot worse than Charlotte overall (43.8% FG vs 44.6% FG), the Celtics shot from the outside better, committed more offensive rebounds and committed less turnovers as well.

For tonight's game, Boston's defense is formed to stop the opposing perimeter, where they are #2 in the league on 3pts defense with 31.8% allowed and #1 in the league on spot up defense, while allowing just 0.87 PPP! However, this effort on the perimeter makes them more exposed down low, especially as their big men are all poor defenders. This is why they are just #27 on defensive rebounding with 72.0%, #25 on post up defense with 0.88 PPP allowed and #25 on points in the paint allowed! All these inside struggles will be excellent for Memphis's offense, who doesn't have a great outside game, but they have on their inside game their main offensive strength. Kostas Koufos and Ed Davis may not be Marc Gasol, but they are valuable players. In fact, Koufos had 4-7 FG and 6 offensive rebounds while going head to head with Dwight Howard! Boston's offense is very inconsistent and they are very turnover prone, so Memphis with Mike Conley and Tony Allen will create problems to the Celtics's backcourt. Boston would need to shoot lights out from the outside to compensate all these edges from the Grizzlies, but they are too inconsistent on this area. Therefore, I'll be taking Memphis on the moneyline tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Memphis Grizzlies ML @ -125 / 180 on Bookmaker

NBA - 709 Miami Heat @ 710 Cleveland Cavaliers

Play #4

Cleveland just keeps getting pounded. They are losing against other lowly teams, but every time they face a top team, they get massively pounded! San Antonio crushed them with 16-24 3pts and 9-18 FG from 16-23 feet! If there is a team that can have a similar production as the Spurs, that team is Miami with Dwyane Wade back at a good level and LeBron James at God like mode as usual!

The key in here is that Cleveland's offense is completely horrible right now, with no flow and very dependent from what Kyrie Irving can do especially via pick and rolls. The bad news is that Miami's defense is #1 in the league on pick and rolls defense with 0.60 PPP allowed, so it will be very hard for Cleveland's offense to get any edge over Miami's defense. The Heat have a decent spot for tonight and they won't be lazy on an ESPN game, so I believe this will be a very easy blowout win for the Heat tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Miami Heat (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA - 711 Chicago Bulls @ 712 Detroit Pistons

Plays #5 & 6

Chicago is coming from another loss, this time at Utah. As I predicted, the Bulls had an edge against the Jazz on the down low with 52% on rebound rate, 46 points in the paint with a nice 14-21 FG at the rim and 8-20 FG from 4-9 feet! Carlos Boozer had a good game with 12-23 FG, but that wasn't enough for the win, as the Bulls' outside shooting was catastrophic with 7-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 1-13 3pts! That's 8-33 (24%) FG! Detroit's defense has been struggling against good jump shooting teams that force them to make close outs on the outside, but their size on the frontcourt is a real problem against teams who can't shoot well from the outside, just like Chicago. In fact, Detroit is #1 in the league on post up defense with just 0.68 PPP allowed! Therefore, I believe Chicago's offense will struggle big time once again tonight.

On the other side, Detroit is coming from nice back to back offensive games, where they scored 109 and 113 points, but they faced Brooklyn and Milwaukee in those games! In both contests, the Pistons completely dominated on the down low while shooting more than 65% FG near the basket, something that won't happen against Chicago's good interior defense. In fact, the Pistons will have the edge offensively but via backcourt, especially with Rodney Stuckey showing some good form. Detroit has finally a nice chance to get a good win over Chicago and they will take advantage of that to get a comfortable win tonight on a game that promises to be a low scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Pistons and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 185,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Detroit Pistons (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 713 Atlanta Hawks @ 714 Houston Rockets

Play #7

Atlanta is coming from a home loss against Orlando last night, where Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver played over 30 minutes. By the way, Korver is out for tonight's game, so Jeff Teague and rookie Dennis Schroder are the only available players for the PG position, while John Jenkins and Cartier Martin will share minutes at the SG position with Korver and Lou Williams out.

Therefore, I expect Atlanta to heavily struggle offensively in here, as they won't get a lot of quality minutes on the backcourt, as even DeMarre Carroll is weak offensively. The focus of the Rockets' defense will be all over Jeff Teague and the truth is that Houston without James Harden has been improving a lot their pick and roll defense, with Patrick Beverley being all over Jeff Teague tonight. Then, Atlanta's frontcourt will struggle against Dwight Howard down low. 

Houston will have a huge backcourt edge tonight, even if James Harden doesn't play tonight, given Atlanta's backcourt injuries and the fact that Louis Williams isn't fit yet to play back to back games. The Rockets have an excellent spot and match up to blowout the Hawks tonight and so, I'll take Houston in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 714 Houston Rockets (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 717 Denver Nuggets @ 718 Minnesota Timberwolves

Play #8

Denver is coming from a nice road win at Dallas by 110-96, where they had their best offensive game of the season so far with an offensive rating of 127! Their offensive execution was perfect, with the team generating good shots all over the court! Every time they had the opportunity, they would also ignite their transition game. The bench also played well, while their defense surprised in how well they stopped Dallas's pick and roll game. Wilson Chandler was Dirk Nowitzki's primary defender and when Dallas tried to use some zone defense like they had done at Denver, the Nuggets seemed much more ready for that this time around and didn't allow any comeback from Dallas! I was very impressed with the Nuggets after this game, as they are indeed improving a lot in both ends of floor!

This will be the second game between these two teams and in the first game played at Denver, the Nuggets won by just four points due to J.J. Barea's excellent game coming off the bench with 10-14 FG and 21 points! The crazy fast paced that both teams like to use favors Denver due to their superior depth that eventually gives them an extra gear down the stretch. After a great start of the season on this area, Minnesota's transition defense is now struggling by allowing 17.1 fast break points per game over their last 7 games! With the Wolves allowing 76.3% FG at the rim over their last five games, the improved Nuggets' offense will take advantage of that to pound them big time. Denver's offensive flow is also improved lately, as after dishing just 19.7 assists per game on their first six games of the season, they have dished 23.9 assists per game on their last seven contests! Right now, I see both games at the same level and so, I'll be taking the Nuggets tonight given the current line.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Denver Nuggets (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 721 Golden State Warriors @ 722 Dallas Mavericks

Play #9

The Warriors played a tight game at New Orleans last night, where they won by one point at the end. Golden State struggled on their pick and roll game, as Jrue Holiday defended Stephen Curry very well, who ended the game with a poor 7-20 FG! In fact, the Warriors' struggles on pick and rolls weren't exactly news for them, as they have been struggling for a while on this area with 0.30, 0.50, 0.68 and 0.08 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays over their last four games! This is what can explain Golden State's overall problems on offense, as they haven't been to even reach an offensive rating of 105 on any of their recent games! Their lack of depth keeps being a problem and four of their starters played over 39 minutes last night! Andrew Bogut is returning tonight after an one-game suspension, but the truth is that the Warriors are 0-3 on back to back games this season, with losses at LA against the Clippers, at Memphis and at home against Portland!

Dallas is coming from back to back losses against Denver, where they couldn't stop the Nuggets' explosiveness, something that the Warriors lack. Due to tiredness and especially due to Andre Iguodala's injury, Golden State's perimeter defense is now struggling big time by allowing 11-24, 10-21 and 9-19 3pts against them over their last three games. Dallas is a good jump shooting team and they will take advantage of this and their nice spot to have a comfortable win tonight. I'm taking the Mavs in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Dallas Mavericks (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 723 Portland Trailblazers @ 724 Phoenix Suns

Play #10

This isn't an easy spot for Phoenix, who had a 3-game road trip in the East and they had to travel from Miami back to Phoenix. On the other hand, Portland has a nicer spot, as their last game was at home against the Knicks last Monday. This will be the third game between these two teams and the Suns are currently 2-0 ATS in the series! Eric Bledsoe was the key, as he had 7-12 FG, 8-11 FG, 22 points. 7 rebounds and 6 assists in the first game, while on the second game on the road Bledsoe had 10-21 FG, 23 points and 6 assists! His speed and aggressiveness was too much for Damian Lillard, however he is unlikely to play tonight as he was still limping on today's shootaround and even if he plays, he will be far from 100%. 

Phoenix's offense will struggle tonight, as Portland is a good 3pts defensive team and this area is a key for the Suns' offense. Phoenix's last two road wins were at Charlotte and Orlando, where they made 10 and 11 treys! Portland is currently on a great winning streak, while rebounding really well and improving on avoiding turnovers, something that will help them against Phoenix's aggressive defense. Portland is currently on a great run, they are confident and they have won their last four road games at Golden State, Brooklyn, Toronto and Sacramento. They lost on their season debut at Phoenix, so they will take this game quite seriously and therefore, they shouldn't struggle in showing tonight that they are indeed the better team of the two with a comfortable win. I'll be taking Portland tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723 Portland Trailblazers (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 725 New York Knicks @ 726 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #11

I believe that both teams will be motivated for this game. The Knicks are desperate for a win, while the Clippers haven't played since early Sunday on a rout against the Bulls, so with Doc Rivers as their coach, I'm sure they will be motivated to crush the Knicks as well. Raymond Felton is probable for tonight, but according to reports he seems to be out of shape. Both Beno Udrih and Pablo Prigioni are too slow to stop Chris Paul, so I expect CP3 to have a huge game tonight! The opposing guards who are good on dribble penetrations are doing whatever they want to do against the Knicks and so, we can only expect Chris Paul to absolutely crush the Knicks' horrible defense. The NY team is just #24 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #29 on pick and roll roll man defense and #30 on transition defense. The Clippers' offense are an elite team in all these areas and they'll crush the Knicks tonight.

The NY team has been losing conference games against teams like Charlotte, Washington and Detroit, squads that are also yet to show some great quality in the league, as they have losing records. Now against a real top team on the road, especially with the Clippers being rested and fired up, I can only expect the LA team to absolutely crush the Knicks tonight and get a double digits win in here. I'm taking the Clippers tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 726 Los Angeles Clippers (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/26: Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 505 Orlando Magic @ 506 Atlanta Hawks

Play #1

Atlanta is coming from a surprising home loss against Boston. The Hawks had a double digits lead going into the fourth quarter, with Al Horford dominating, while Jeff Teague was struggling given Avery Bradley's good defense. On the other hand, Boston's offense was having a brick fest. Then, the fourth quarter arrived and Atlanta started well the quarter but then putting the second unit on the floor with Louis Williams leading the offense was a terrible idea. Boston got closer on the scoreboard and with Atlanta's starting lineup back on the floor, they decided to keep shooting jumpers and more jumpers, in such a way that Boston used a zone defense to force Atlanta to shoot from even further, something that made Atlanta miss even more shots! On the other hand, Boston got aggressive on the offensive end by attacking the rim and even though they kept shooting a lot of bricks, the free throws they got via aggressiveness were the key!

"I think the free-throw line and the aggressiveness of Boston in the fourth quarter was the difference in the game" Atlanta's coach Mike Budenholzer said. "For the game it’s 31-12 from the free-throw line. That’s going to make it a difficult game to win. I think we need to learn from that and be more aggressive and get to the paint, get the basket, get to the free-throw line. It’s a tough lesson to learn. It’s a tough way to learn it."

On their recent stretch of the games, Atlanta has been showing some problems on offense that are justified by their bad spot. In fact, their last game against the Celtics was their fourth game in five days and the Hawks don't have a lot of depth to defend themselves from these spots. They also faced Detroit twice and it wasn't easy for Atlanta to have good offensive games against such a big frontcourt, while Jeff Teague was limited by tiredness on back to back games. The good news is that Atlanta will now be rested to face Orlando tonight and Jeff Teague will come from facing a top defender like Avery Bradley into a poor defender like Jameer Nelson.

Orlando is now playing with a small lineup, so Atlanta with their own undersized lineup won't have problems in matching them. After a good start of the season, the Magic's defense was sent back to Earth while facing potent offensive teams. This is why they allowed more than 100 points in six of their last seven games! On the other side, Atlanta's defense is also far from being an elite unit, as they are allowing too many points near the basket, something understandable given their undersized frontcourt formed by Al Horford and Paul Millsap. 

These two teams have already faced each other this season and the game ended with 198 points, even though both teams had subpar offensive performances. This was due the fast pace that the game had that compensated the poor efficiency. I believe tonight's game will have a similar pace, while both offenses will look better tonight. The Magic were on a back to back spot in that game and they committed 19 turnovers and shot 10-18 FT! On the other side, Atlanta didn't have any problem in creating easy shots, as they ended that game with 36 assists! Dennis Schroder was at the time Atlanta's main backup guard and he had an awful 0-8 FG game. He has recently left the rotation and was replaced by Louis Williams, who will give an offensive boost to the team coming off the bench. On the other side, Orlando was starting Jason Maxiell at the time and he has been since replaced by Victor Oladipo, who gives more speed to the lineup, while Glen Davis is also now playing. This makes me believe that this game will have more points than the first game played between these two teams and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 199,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 12 Premium Play 11/25: San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins

NFL Week 12 - 233 San Francisco 49ers @ 234 Washington Redskins

Play #1

This game will be played on very cold temperatures between two teams who are indeed run oriented. While Washington has passed the ball 56% of the times and rushed 44%, San Francisco has rushed the football for 55% and passed only 45% of the time. The Redskins' defense has been a disaster all season long, but their run defense has been average over their last four games with 3.50%, 2.90%, -6.90% and -4.30% run defense DVOA. With LG Mike Iupati out of tonight's game, I expect the 49ers' running game to be less sharp than usual and with Colin Kaepernick lacking confidence after two poor games against Carolina and New Orleans, I believe that San Francisco's offense will indeed struggle tonight. I also believe Jim Harbaugh will want his team to be physical against Washington by pounding the ball and this will burn a lot of time from the clock.

On the other side, Washington's running game has been improving with the help with RGIII and that has been the key factor for their offense. In fact, over their last six games, they managed to get 24.90%, 20.50%, -2.70%, +19.00%, 12.60% and 24.90% on their running game DVOA! However, the 49ers' after a bye week are coming from two good defensive games against Carolina and New Orleans, where they lost but their defense did a good job. Therefore, I expect them to have another good performance tonight against the Redskins offense. I believe this game will be an old low-scoring affair between two teams who like to run the football a lot and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 233/234 Under 46 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Card 11/25

NBA - 703 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 704 Indiana Pacers

Play #1

Indiana is coming from a fun game against Philadelphia, where they won without making a big effort. This was by far Indiana's fastest paced game, mostly thanks to Philadelphia's style, but Indiana didn't have a problem with that at all. However, Indiana's defense still did a good job in allowing just 15-38 (39.5%) FG at the rim, while stopping Philadelphia's transitions as well. The Sixers still scored 19 fast break points, but with a poor efficiency of 5-18 FG! Offensively, Indiana had an easy task with 38 FT attempts, while their starting lineup also shot well with 31-57 (54%) FG!

Minnesota played at Houston on their last game, while playing their fourth game in five nights. So, the Rockets didn't have to do a lot to win the game. With James Harden out, Aaron Brooks entered into God like mode with 10-14 FG and 6-7 3pts with 26 points in 25 minutes! Houston shot 17-31 3pts and so, they didn't have a problem in winning this contest. Minnesota managed to keep things interesting due to Houston's 24 turnovers that resulted in 23 fast break points from Minnesota!

Regarding tonight's game, Indiana is the better team, but Minnesota should offer a tough matchup for them lately. Minnesota's defense has been struggling to stop the opposing perimeter offense, especially regarding 3pts shooting. However, Indiana is very inconsistent on this area with 35-116 (30%) 3pts on their last six games, so the Wolves should be fine on this area tonight. Minnesota's post up defense is good as they are #7 in the league while allowing 0.76 PPP, so they should limit Indiana's big men down low tonight. On the other hand, Indiana has been struggling to get back into defense where they are "just" #12 in the league on this area, while they indeed struggle on pick and roll ball handler defense, where their strategy is to allow their opponents to shoot from the 16-23 feet area. The fact that Kevin Love is a great outside shooting will force David West to get out of his comfort zone and so, I believe Minnesota will be a dangerous matchup for Indiana tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Wolves in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Minnesota Timberwolves (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 707 Phoenix Suns @ 708 Miami Heat

Play #2

Phoenix grabbed a solid win yesterday at Orlando, where they were super efficient on offense with 25 assists and just 9 turnovers! As expected, Goran Dragic crushed Jameer Nelson on pick and rolls and ended the game with 10-17 FG, while having a brilliant 13 assists and 0 turnovers! The Suns also had an excellent outside shooting game with 10-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 11-29 3pts! On the other hand, Orlando dominated on the inside with Nikola Vucevic and Andrew Nicholson, while having a decent outside shooting game as well.

The Suns will now play a much tougher game at Miami, where they won't have the same freedom on the ball handler that they had yesterday. Phoenix's pick and roll game didn't feel any pressure yesterday and so, they committed just 9 turnovers. Orlando is #26 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense and now the Suns will face the best team in the league on this area! The good news is that Phoenix is #1 in the league on transition offense with a mega volume and Miami has been super lazy in getting back into defense this season. In fact, the Heat are indeed last in the league on transition defense, while allowing 1.26 PPP! Miami is also lazy on perimeter defense, something that will help Phoenix's quality spot up game.

On the other side, Miami's offense is of course a quality unit and Phoenix's defense has in stopping the opposing perimeter shooting their main focus. Therefore, they get crushed down low quite often, with 49 points in the paint per game allowed over the last 5 games! LeBron James's post ups will be a nightmare for the Suns to defend and of course, Miami's great offensive flow will crush Phoenix's defense. Miami is coming from a close win against Orlando, where their defense showed laziness on the perimeter. Miami wasn't able to get a good offensive game in that game due to a poor 6-25 3pts mark. I expect them to bounce back on this area and help turn this game into a high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 709 Houston Rockets @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies

Play #3

Memphis is now without Marc Gasol, who got injured on the team's last game against San Antonio. Without Marc Gasol, Kostas Koufos and Ed Davis will replace him and even though they aren't poor players, the truth is that they aren't All-Star caliber players like Gasol. Memphis's defense continue to struggle on rotating defensively and defending perimeter shots. This is why they keep being dead last in the league on spot up defense. San Antonio took advantage of that with 7-17 3pts! Therefore, it will be tough for the Grizzlies to defend a Houston team, whose offense is now excellent since Terrence Jones became the starter at the PF position. James Harden is out for tonight and he is a key guy, especially down the stretch, but Houston has been showing a great unselfish basketball without him and they seem fine to play without Harden right now. 

Marc Gasol's absence will also be very important of Memphis's offense given his great ability to pass the ball and score down low. The Grizzlies' pick and rolls have been the key for their offense with Mike Conley, but the Rockets' pick and roll defense has been fine, especially with Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverley being a better defensive combo than Beverley with Harden. This will be a battle of styles, but Houston will have a clear edge on offense via spreading the floor and taking advantage of Memphis' poor perimeter defense. Therefore, I'll be taking the Rockets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Houston Rockets (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 711 Denver Nuggets @ 712 Dallas Mavericks

Play #4

I don't see a big difference of quality between these two teams. Dallas will dominate from the outside, in the same way that Denver will dominate down low. The Mavericks surprised on the first game between these two teams last Saturday, as they were on a horrible spot, but they will made a huge comeback and even took the lead with two minutes to go! The reason for that was that they used a zone defense during the second half that completely surprised Denver's offense and made them turn into a jump shooting team. This is why they attempted 32 treys during that game!

Of course Dallas won't have the terrible spot that they had last Saturday, but on the other hand Denver will also be better prepared for Dallas's zone defense if they implement that once again tonight. I believe this will be a very close game like last Saturday's game was and therefore, I see good value on taking the Nuggets in here tonight. I'm taking Denver in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Denver Nuggets (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 713 New Orleans Pelicans @ 714 San Antonio Spurs

Play #5

San Antonio is rolling right now, but I believe the Pelicans will offer them a tough matchup in here tonight. Anthony Davis will have a huge physical edge over San Antonio's frontcourt, with Boris Diaw banged up and with Tim Duncan struggling early on the season. San Antonio has been playing a few games where they are allowing way too many points down low (52 points against Philadelphia, 54 against Utah and 52 against Memphis) and this should be also one of them. Tony Parker will also have problems tonight, as he will be guarded by Jrue Holiday, who is one of the best individual defenders in the league at the PG position.

As I expect the Pelicans to win the boards battle and with them also committing a low number of turnovers as it has been the norm this season, I believe the current blowout line is too high for a game like this one. New Orleans is a tough matchup for San Antonio and I expect them to run the Spurs close tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Pelicans in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 New Orleans Pelicans (+10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 715 Chicago Bulls @ 716 Utah Jazz

Play #6

Chicago got absolutely crushed yesterday at LA against the Clippers, as the team looked dead mentally after knowing that Derrick Rose was once again severely injured and that all their season aspirations went down the toilet once again. Then, the Clippers took advantage of that and used their great offense to absolutely crushed Chicago. 

Things will be very different tonight. First of all, Chicago will bounce back and they will face the worst team in the league right now. The Jazz played at Oklahoma City last night and even though Russell Westbrook was out, Utah couldn't do a thing in that game and looked completely lost once again. Enes Kanter was removed from the starting lineup to be replaced by Marvin Williams of all people. This is a move that shows that not only the players are lost, as their coach is lost as well. 

Therefore, I have little doubts that Chicago's frontcourt will eat Utah alive down low tonight and this is how the Bulls crushed the Jazz earlier on the season with 56 points in the paint, on a very easy 97-73 win for them. On the other hand, Trey Burke has returned to the team and he is still struggling with a sore finger, while Gordon Hayward who is supposed to be the team's best scorer is completely lacking confidence right now since a terrible performance at Dallas. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Chicago tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715 Chicago Bulls (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/25: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers

Minnesota  at Indiana

NBA - 703 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 704 Indiana Pacers Play #1 Indiana is coming from a fun game against Philadelphia, where they won without making a big effort. This was by far Indiana's fastest paced game, mostly thanks to Philadelphia's style, but Indiana didn't have a problem with that at all. However, Indiana's defense still did a good job in allowing just 15-38 (39.5%) FG at the rim, while stopping Philadelphia's transitions as well. The Sixers still scored 19 fast break points, but with a poor efficiency of 5-18 FG! Offensively, Indiana had an easy task with 38 FT attempts, while their starting lineup also shot well with 31-57 (54%) FG! Minnesota played at Houston on their last game, while playing their fourth game in five nights. So, the Rockets didn't have to do a lot to win the game. With James Harden out, Aaron Brooks entered into God like mode with 10-14 FG and 6-7 3pts with 26 points in 25 minutes! Houston shot 17-31 3pts and so, they didn't have a problem in winning this contest. Minnesota managed to keep things interesting due to Houston's 24 turnovers that resulted in 23 fast break points from Minnesota! Regarding tonight's game, Indiana is the better team, but Minnesota should offer a tough matchup for them lately. Minnesota's defense has been struggling to stop the opposing perimeter offense, especially regarding 3pts shooting. However, Indiana is very inconsistent on this area with 35-116 (30%) 3pts on their last six games, so the Wolves should be fine on this area tonight.  Minnesota's post up defense is good as they are #7 in the league while allowing 0.76 PPP, so they should limit Indiana's big men down low tonight. On the other hand, Indiana has been struggling to get back into defense where they are "just" #12 in the league on this area, while they indeed struggle on pick and roll ball handler defense, where their strategy is to allow their opponents to shoot from the 16-23 feet area. The fact that Kevin Love is a great outside shooting will force David West to get out of his comfort zone and so, I believe Minnesota will be a dangerous matchup for Indiana tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Wolves in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Minnesota Timberwolves (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NFL Week 12 Premium Card 11/24

NFL Week 12 - 215 San Diego Chargers @ 216 Kansas City Chiefs

Play #1

Kansas City is on a letdown spot in here on this sandwich game between their two very important games against Denver. Therefore, I expect them to struggle today and that will happen on defense, as San Diego's passing game has been decent lately with 73.00%, 25.00%, 23.20% and 54.40% DVOA on their last four games. On the other hand, the Chiefs will face the worst pass defense in the league and so, I believe that they will score a considerable numbers of points in here as well. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 215/216 Over 44 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NFL Week 12 - 211 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 212 Houston Texans

Play #2

The last three games of both teams went over the total posted, but I believe things will be different today. Both teams are being very poor on pass defense this season, but the truth is that neither team has the passing game to actually explore the defensive weaknesses of their opponent today. It's also possible that they will run the football quite a lot today and in that context, both teams are decent run defensive teams. Therefore, I expect this game to be a boring, low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 211/212 Under 44 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NFL Week 12 - 219 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 220 Cleveland Browns

Play #3

Pittsburgh's offense saw their running game regress once again last week against Detroit, while their passing game will face a Browns secondary led by Joe Haden and Buster Skrine that will be a very tough opponent for them today, especially on such tough weather. The Browns are coming from a loss against Cincinnati due to a bunch of big special teams plays from the Bengals and I expect them to bounce back defensively today. Things will be much tougher on offense for them, as both their passing and running game continue to be subpar and Pittsburgh's defense continues being a tough opponent. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and I'll be taking the Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 219/220 Under 40 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 12 - 221 Chicago Bears @ 222 St Louis Rams

Play #4

St Louis has been playing well, as they had a positive DVOA on four of their last five games. This is a very favorable spot for the Rams, as they are coming from a bye week, while the Bears are coming from a super tough overtime home win against Baltimore, on a game that was interrupted for several hours due to some terrible weather. St Louis's defense has been brilliant lately and they will take advantage of Jay Cutler's absence and some injuries on the Bears' defense to at least make this game a very close one.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 222 St Louis Rams (-1) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

NFL Week 12 - 227 Indianapolis Colts @ 228 Arizona Cardinals

Play #5

I think the Colts are being overrated in here. With Reggie Wayne gone for the season, the remaining WR's are forced to make big plays and they aren't being able to do that. Now against a Cardinals' elite defense led in the secondary by Patrick Peterson, things won't be easy for them and Luck will have very few options to turn to today. On the other hand, the Colts' running game continues to struggle and they'll face the second best run defense in the Cardinals. Arizona's offense isn't great, but it's good enough to score some points especially at home and they are fighting for a wild card spot, while the Colts have a 4-game lead on their division after beating the Titans and they'll face Tennessee next week on an important game to secure once and for all their division and a playoff berth. Therefore, I believe Arizona has the matchup and the spot edge for today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 228 Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 12 - 209 Tampa Bay Bucanneers @ 210 Detroit Lions

NFL Week 12 - 213 Minnesota Vikings @ 214 Green Bay Packers

Play #6

***2-way 7pts Teaser***

Tampa Bay has won their last two games and they were really good on their last three DVOA-wise, with +30.3% against Seattle, +11.2% against Miami and +39.6% against Atlanta! Their new QB Mike Glennon is playing very well and against a poor Lions' pass defense, I expect him to lead his team to score some points today. On the other hand, the match up between Darrelle Revis and Calvin Johnson promises to be great and to cause some issues to Detroit's offense. I believe Tampa Bay is now playing with confidence and that they will keep the score of this game respectable at least.

Green Bay is motivated to win today, as they are still fighting for a playoff berth, even though they are playing without Aaron Rodgers. On the other hand, Minnesota is 2-8 and they are thinking more about next year's draft than the current season. The only area where the Packers have injury problems on defense right now is at the CB position, but then Minnesota's passing game has been so poor this season that they won't take advantage of that. Green Bay actually had a decent offensive game against the Giants last week and so, I expect them to produce enough offense against the Vikings' poor pass defense to get the win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 209 Tampa Bay Buccanneers (+14) x 214 Green Bay Packers (+2) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline