NBA Free Premium Play 05/30: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

Indiana  at Miami

NBA - 521 Indiana Pacers @ 522 Miami Heat Play #1 I expect Miami to close the deal tonight and win the series 4-2 without much trouble… I’ve made a mini-recap about G5 that is the blueprint for tonight’s game: “I’ve just watched yesterday’s NBA game between MIA & IND and some weird stuff happened: Lebron James w/ foul trouble with just 24 minutes of action; the occasional Paul George’s random offensive explosive game w/ 37 points scored, he had one +30 pts game vs. WAS and another one vs. WAS, so I guess this type of game was due to happen in this series”  IND was able to score 93 points for a nice Off. Rtg = 114.4! However, they didn’t show anything new or surprised the Heat… They had only 13 assists and Roy Hibbert isn’t an offensive threat for them. They scored 93 points primarily because Paul George went off and scored 37 points while hitting 11-19 FG (58%) in CONTESTED SHOTS according to NBA.com! Finally, the Pacers dominated the boards (as usual) w/ 55% reb/rate. Why I don’t think IND will be competitive tonight: 1) Obviously, LeBron James! James played only 24 minutes and scored just 7 points – career low’s for him! I don’t need to say that he will bounce back tonight b/c this is just common sense… However, note that Paul George is coming from a monumental effort in the last game in which he logged a game high 45 minutes!! He is due for a natural shooting regression and the fact that he will face a “fresh” LeBron James won’t help him either. Also, without Chris Andersen & James in foul trouble, MIA was really undersized in the last game. After all, James was averaging 8 rebounds per game in the first 4 games of the series and so, IND had a nice spot to dominate down low! The fact that they scored a series high 42 points in the paint in G5 wasn’t a “coincidence”! 2) Effort Levels! I’ve mentioned last night that SAS would want to play w/ nice tempo in order to explore their superior depth over OKC, and once the second quarter started, they put an extra gear w/ their second unit.  I expect a similar scenario for tonight’s game… In the last game, 3 IND’s starters logged at least 41 minutes of action in G5 with Hibbert and George Hill playing 38 minutes each! (IND’s bench scored only 6 points)! With them relying so heavily in their starters, I expect a natural physical letdown from IND in here, especially w/ a “fresh” LeBron James on the court, and w/ MIA having more depth right now (Lewis, Allen, Cole and Birdman if he plays are all playing quite well in this series). 3) Referees! I expect MIA to get some natural “home calls” after what happened in the last game @IND w/ LeBron James. I really don’t think that MIA will get only 8 FT’s tonight as I expect them to be super aggressive in here, particularly James. My fair line for this contest is Miami having a classic blowout line of 10/12 points and so, I’m taking the Heat as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Miami Heat (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 05/29

It looks like in the last weeks we are under the spell of Murphy’s Law, as anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

My Soccer play w/ Real Madrid in UEFA’s Champions League Final in terms of my projected game plan, was dead on in my opinion: Atletico’s played pretty well in the first half w/ their usual tremendous positioning but as soon the second half started, they were completely “dead” w/ Real Madrid having a huge physical edge. Atletico’s goal came from an incredible error of Real’s GK Iker Casillas, while Gareth Bale alone missed three clear goal chances. Obviously, the game went to OT and then, Real Madrid simply destroyed Atletico by scoring three goals but still… our play was lost!

I’ve just watched yesterday’s NBA game between MIA & IND and some weird stuff happened: Lebron James w/ foul trouble with just 24 minutes of action; the occasional Paul George’s random offensive explosive game w/ 37 points scored, he had one +30 pts game vs. WAS and another one vs. WAS, so I guess this type of game was due to happen in this series. We’ve lost w/ Over by half a point w/ IND missing 3 FT’s in the last 15 seconds of the game…

In the MLB, 4 of the 7 losses to start the season were in the 9th inning… we’ve lost w/ CLE & DET last night in this way…

For tonight, we have NBA’s G5 between the Spurs and the Thunder…

I have a small lean w/ SAS but at this current price, I think that there is no edge enough to play them. Actually, OKC+5 looks tempting because we are yet to see a tight game and tonight’s affair could be the first close game of the series.

After watching G3 of the series and Ibaka’s presence being felt on the floor in both ends, I thought that SAS would adjust properly: keep attacking the rim and be aggressive offensively. I was wrong! After scoring 66 and 54 pts in the paint, SAS scored only 40 & 36 pts in the paint L2 games and their offensive flow just isn’t the same!

It looks like Popovich will make some lineups changes for tonight but I think that’s a bad idea. I remember that back in 2012 playoffs’ series, after losing the two games @OKC, coach Pop inserted Manu Ginobili in the starting lineup for G5 and the outcome is well known = they’ve lost the game!

I expect SAS to be super aggressive … the fact that they have scored just 3 fast break points in L2 games is a nice blueprint for their expected mindset for tonight: use their superior depth and play w/ nice tempo! Note that Westbrook played 45 minutes in the last game & Durant 41!

My far line for this contest is SAS-6, so I’m passing in here. I also have a small lean w/ OVER because of what I’ve said about SAS’s mindset of pushing the tempo of the game (that’s why I also played w/ Over in G4) but I’m passing totals as well.

After watching and working w/ NBA today, I’ve decided to pass MLB as well as I’m preparing some preview articles for the upcoming FIFA World Cup that I’ll start publishing tomorrow.

NBA Premium Card 05/28

NBA - 517 Miami Heat @ 518 Indiana Pacers 

Play #1 & #2

So far in the series, the Pacers’ defense simply can’t defend the Heat, as MIA had 109.2, 110.6, 120.2 & 125.1 Off. Rtg’s in the first 4 games of the series! MIA scored 54 points in the paint in the first game and since then, they have scored “just” 32, 40 & 38 pts. However, they have compensated such decrease w/ better outside shooting – 26-62 3pts (42%) vs. 6-23 3pts in G1.

The most important factor for me is related w/ Roy Hibbert! Really, it doesn’t matter if Hibbert is on the court or not… actually, MIA is scoring @ better rates w/ Hibbert on the court! This simply didn’t happen in the past – a good sign of how MIA’s offense has solved this chronic problem for them.  

MIA scored 102 points in the last game while shooting 46.4% FG, but they were hitting above +50% FG before the garbage time arrived. Note that MIA scored only 8 points in the last 7:41 of the game (at the time, they were winning 94-71!)… if MIA ended the game shooting +50% FG, it would have been the third time in 4 games in this series!

Because Luis Scola did well offensively in G4, it wouldn’t shock me if IND’s coach Vogel give up of Hibbert during the game in order to improve IND’s offensive game. I expect IND to be more aggressive tonight by playing at home and get at least +20 FT’s.

Still, it won’t be enough. I really don’t think that they have the proper confidence to beat the Heat right now… they are making excuses for everything:

“After Game 4, Paul George spent most of his press conference bemoaning the officiating. He got fined $25,000 for suggesting the free-throw disparity (Miami’s 34 attempts to Indina’s 17) was due to some “home cooking.”;

David West had some similar things to say, noting that their must be some “new rules” at play as a reason that the Pacers sent the Heat at the line so much.;

They are even questioning their own coach:

“Roy Hibbert, after the loss, wanted to talk about the game plan and his lack of touches as the reason that he scored 0 points for the fourth time in 17 playoff games this season. “

I expect both Ray Allen and Chris Andersen to play tonight while MIA will finish the job in 5 games w/ my Totals fair line = 186/188 points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Miami Heat (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Over 183.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 05/28

MLB - 915 Tampa Bay Rays @ 916 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: C. Archer vs. L. Hendriks)

Play #1

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915/916 Over 9 (w/ C. Archer & L. Hendriks) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 917 Cleveland Indians @ 918 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: T. House vs. H. Noesi)

Play #2

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ T. House) @ -114 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/27

NBA - 515 San Antonio Spurs @ 516 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1 & #2

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Serge Ibaka returned in the last game and there is no doubt that he had a tremendous impact in both ends of the floor. He was great shooting the ball from mid/long range and ended the game w/ 6-7 FG – something that Collison / Perkins / Adams couldn’t offer such quality. He was also a key piece on the defensive end (as usual).

However, the biggest difference in the last game was the addition of Reggie Jackson to the starting lineup in the place of Thabo Sefolosha (who didn’t play a single minute!). W/ Ibaka & Jackson on the court, more than being better on the defensive end, OKC is way more dangerous offensively right now as only Perkins is a non-offensive threat for them. Even Jeremy Lamb received 18 minutes from S. Brooks – a good sign that OKC is more focused on the offensive end vs. SAS right now.

Regardless what SAS does on the defensive end, OKC is now more prepared and ready to be effective on offense – something that didn’t happen in the first two games of the series.

The biggest difference in my opinion for tonight will be related w/ SAS offense!

It was quite naturally that SAS struggled a bit in the last game w/ the presence of Serge Ibaka down low. After shooting 89% & 68% FG at the rim in the first two games of the series, SAS hit just 56% FG in the last game! Surely, I expect Popovich to adjust properly in terms of floor spacing… still, note that Ibaka is far from being @ 100%! I’ve noticed several plays in which Ibaka simply didn’t move and offered his usual excellent ability of team help defense.

Despite struggling a bit to score near the basket, the biggest problem for SAS in G3 was their inability to hit good looking outside shots: SAS went just 3-16 FG from 16-23 feet! Also, according to NBA.com, SAS went 13-14 FG in uncontested shots – 32% FG vs. 19-34 FG from OKC (a tremendous 56% mark!). While SAS keeps generating wide open shots for their perimeter players, I expect a natural bounce back from them in this area and so, I think that they will extremely competitive in here in a shootout affair.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 San Antonio Spurs (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/26

NBA - 513 Indiana Pacers @ 514 Miami Heat

Play #1

I’m playing once again w/ the Under in this series after losing both sides & total plays in the last game. The Pacers did a great job in the first half especially on the defensive end while they used David West and Roy Hibbert down low on offense.

Obviously, the storyline of that game was the Heat’s tremendous second half in which they hit almost 60% of their shots. MIA’s small ball crushed the Pacers @ 4th quarter… I really don’t think that IND’s coach Vogel will put David West on Ray Allen once again… Also, George Hill played only 8 minutes in the second half due to foul trouble w/ the same thing happening w/ Paul George. These two players are really key defensive players and naturally, Norris Cole & Ray Allen enjoyed some good looks.

Note also that both teams were super sharp in contested shots according to NBA.com: MIA w/17-33 FG 52% FG & IND w/ 23-42 FG for 55% from the field! I expect some regression from both teams in here while IND will be more prepared for MIA’s small ball @ 4th quarter. My fair line in here is 180 points and so, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ UNDER.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Card 05/25

NBA - 511 San Antonio Spurs @ 512 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1

I have a strong lean w/ Under in this contest but I really needed the confirmation that Ibaka will play. There is yet to be released an official confirmation but it looks like he will play tonight:

“The most important thing against this team is defense. I’m sure you saw the last two games in San Antonio,” Ibaka said Sunday morning after going through his first workout with teammates since the injury on May 15. “So we really need a defensive mind tonight.”

Ibaka said the Thunder, with or without him, are ready to put a charge into this so-far lopsided series. 

“You are going to see tonight,” Ibaka said. “You are going to see tonight.” 

Obviously, it is impossible for him to be @100% but his presence on the floor will certainly help the team’s mindset for tonight. After being torched on the defensive end in the first two games of the series, OKC had some time to prepare tonight’s game. I wouldn’t be surprised that w/ Ibaka on the court, OKC will adapt a similar defensive game plan of switching everything just to confuse SAS’s offensive machine.

On the other end, SAS defense is just too good & disciplined and because OKC will have to throw some non-offensive threat players to the court, SAS defense will be focused in slowing down Durant and Westbrook.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 208.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/24

NBA - 509 Indiana Pacers @ 540 Miami Heat

Play #1 & #2

I expect the Pacers to be super competitive today and therefore, having the chance to get 7 full points for them = nice value for us.

I took Miami in G2 and even though they won the game and subsequently, we cashed w/ the Play, I really didn’t expect them to struggle so much…  Actually, The Pacers led 75-72 with 5:33 left in the game, but Miami went on a 10-0 run to put the game out just out of reach. That run happened after the Paul George “incident” and also David West being poked in the eye and being replaced by Luis Scola didn’t help the cause - The Pacers didn’t have any rhythm and aggressiveness in both ends of the floor. Nevertheless, the Pacers were super competitive despite shooting just 40% FG vs. a sharp shooting Heat team that hit 51% of their shots!

The Pacers simply dominated the boards (once again) w/ 57% reb/rate and they improved dramatically in protecting the rim – after allowing 54 pts in the paint in G1, IND allowed just 32 points in G2!

In my opinion, the resting time will be the X factor for tonight’s game and it will help way more the Pacers than the Heat! I’m not talking only about Paul George’s concussion issue…

So far in the series: IND starters are +23 in 57 minutes vs., all other lineups -16 in 39 minutes!

MIA’s second unit has been a factor in the series w/ Chris Andersen and Norris Cole vs. IND’s ineffective bench. IND’s starters are logging heavy minutes – 4 of them played more than 40 minutes in G2 and so, having the chance to rest 3 full days will help more IND IMO.

Last game was a super slow paced contest w/ Pace Factor = 78.5 according to my numbers – it was the slowest paced game of the postseason for both teams! I expect a similar pace for tonight and so, both teams would have to be extremely effective on the offensive end to hit this totals line of 183 points. My fair line for this contest is 180 points and MIA being favored by 3 or 4 points and therefore, I’m taking both the Pacers and the Under in here as my Single Dime Plays!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Indiana Pacers (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 183 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

UEFA Champions League Final: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

SOCCER – UEFA Champions League Final: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

For this contest, I’ve made the decision to make a play w/ Real Madrid this Wednesday, but because there were some news regarding the availability of Atletico’s striker Diego Costa (supposedly he is fit to play today), I knew that we would get a better line near game time. At the time, Real Madrid was priced @ +100 / 2.00 @ Pinnacle Sports, and right now, we could get them @ +117 / 2.17. No doubt that the wait was worth for us…

Regarding the matchups and the game…

Atletico Madrid has won the Spanish League and this achievement was simply epic in my opinion. They are the ultimate example of a “TEAM” as they have won the domestic league despite having inferior overall talent on their roster when compared to Real Madrid & Barcelona.

Their biggest strength relies on the incredible work rate of all their players. Their defensive pressing is just tremendous as they don’t concede many chances for their opponents to create quality shots. However, this will be their biggest problem for this contest!!!

I don’t think that Atletico will have the proper “aggressiveness” and physical condition to hang around against a “rested” Real Madrid team. Note that w/ them completely focused in winning La Liga, Atletico simply couldn’t win the L3 games of the competition. I understand that the draw @ Barcelona in the last round felt like a win for them, but prior to that game, Atletico lost @ Levante and draw at home against Malaga – two games in which Atletico would have won easily early / mid on the season. They gave everything to win the domestic league and I believe that this will have a price for them in here…

On the exactly opposite side we have Real Madrid… After crushing Bayern Munchen @ Germany, Real Madrid was so focused in winning “La Decima” that they completely “shut down the chip” and didn’t care to be competitive @ La Liga. This is was weird to understand because as we know, both Atletico and Barcelona struggled in the last rounds, and a focused Real Madrid could really have won La Liga! While Atletico is expected to be a little drained emotionally IMO, we have a Real Madrid team that will be ready for the challenge.

It looks like Diego Costa will play today after a “miraculous” trip to Serbia during the week. However, I just don’t think that he’ll ready to be a major factor in the game... Note that he “forced” to play @ Barcelona in their last game and got subbed w/ just 16 minutes of action. He represents almost 35% of the team’s total goals for the season, so the fact that he is way far from being @100% is a huge blow for the team. Atletico’s offensive threats in the last games have been almost exclusively via set pieces and this says it all about their lack of offensive production lately.

Obviously, I expect Atletico to bring a defensive minded game plan for this contest. Trying to play an “open game” w/ Real Madrid is just a kamikaze idea, because Real would crush them in transition w/ CR7 & Bale – that’s the biggest reason why Real humiliated Bayern @ semis w/ 4-0 win @ Germany.

For Real Madrid, the absence of Xabi Alonso can’t be ignored in here especially because I don’t like his natural replacement Illarramendi, who lacks the proper competitiveness and experience for this kind of games. I would have enjoyed more if Sami Khedira took the spot but either way, the absolutely key players for Real in the midfield are Angel Di Maria and Luka Modric and both are expected to play.

I expect this contest to be a tight one w/ few chances for both teams to score. However, w/ Diego Costa banged up and w/ also Arda Turan projected to not start the game, Atletico is really shorthanded on the front. The same thing cannot be said about Real Madrid w/ Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and K. Benzema. This trio automatically will generate some scoring chances and sooner or later, one of them will make the difference and therefore, that’s why I’m taking the Real Madrid to win this contest! 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Real Madrid ML @  +119 / 2.19 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 05/23

NBA - 955 Milwaukee Brewers @ 956 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: M. Estrada vs. T. Koehler)

Play #1

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955/956 Over 7 (w/ M. Estrada & T. Koehler) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 963 Chicago Cubs @ 964 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: E. Jackson vs. T. Stauffer)

Play #2

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ E. Jackson) @ +117 / 2.17 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 05/21: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City  at San Antonio

NBA - 507 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 508 San Antonio Spurs Play #1 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** I knew that Scott Brooks would try to surprise the Spurs in Game 1, but he really “tried” too much by playing some bizarre lineups especially w/ Durant @ center position! Without Ibaka, OKC is in a tough spot against this Spurs’ machine, but it was pretty clear for me that they don’t have a chance in playing small ball vs. SAS. The Spurs scored at will @ paint w/ 66 points in the paint & 24-27 FG at the rim! When Brooks decided to go “ultra small”, the Spurs’ offense simply exploded! The only bright spot for OKC in that game was in the third quarter: “That starting lineup did a good job in that third quarter,” Brooks said. “We were up one with four minutes to go. By playing with a lot of toughness on the defensive end and using our athleticism and our speed on the offensive end. That’s always a good recipe for our success, playing defensively with good hands, good toughness, the physicality that it takes to stop a very good offensive team like San Antonio.” OKC played their starting lineup for the first 9 minutes of the quarter and they held SAS’ offense to just 14 points in a 9-minutes span! IMO, this will be the blueprint for OKC tonight – they will try to win tonight via their defense and not by outscoring the Spurs. I expect OKC to play less small ball tonight as S. Adams will more than the 17 minutes logged in G1. Obviously, by playing “big”, OKC offense will be “easier” to defend as the Spurs’ defense will be almost exclusively focused in stopping Durant & Westbrook. I expect tonight’s contest to be played @ slower pace (NOTE: that 3rd quarter in G1 was the slowest paced quarter of the game, which is a good sign for this G2). I also expect Scott Brooks to ride his starting lineup a bit longer @ first & third quarter and so, I’m playing w/ Under FIRST QUARTER (once again) & UNDER FULL TIME as well. NOTE: Split the wager! Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 53.5 FIRST QUARTER @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 211 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Card 05/20

NBA - 505 Miami Heat @ 506 Indiana Pacers

Play #1

The Pacers’ offense was the main story of the first game as they scored 107 points w/ Off. Rtg. of 124.8. I was impressed w/ the way the Pacers quickly passed the ball and get past MIA’s great ball pressure to IND’s ball handlers. I can’t ignore the fact that MIA was lazy and way too slow in rotations, but still, IND’s offense did a good job in that game.

Obviously, we can expect MIA to be a bit better defensively especially because LeBron James most likely won’t guard David West on the post, this task will be for Udonis Haslem while James will match w/ Paul George. I also don’t expect IND to hit 6-9 FG from 16-23 feet and 8-19 from behind the line…

IND’s obsession in crashing the boards worked pretty well for them as they grabbed 7 offensive boards (despite shooting +50% FG) and this will not change during the series. The problem is that they will be exposed w/ transition defense and MIL explored that in G1 by scoring 21 fast break points!

What I liked from MIA in G1 was their ability to hit shots near the basket, something that was not “supposed” to happen! MIA scored 54 points in the paint while shooting 22-26 FG (85%!!!) @ the rim! Note that Roy Hibbert played 39 minutes so his presence down low wasn’t enough to stop MIA from scoring easily down low.

MIA failed to hit outside shots w/ just 6-23 3pts (26.1%) & just 16-26 FG in uncontested shots (44.4%) (vs. 12-21 FG 57.1% from IND) and they also went just 15x to the FT line. I expect MIA to be way more aggressive tonight and get +20’s FT’s while they will be a bit better from behind the line – Bosh went 0-5 from 3pts in G1 and in ALL of his attempts, he was WIDE OPEN!

I expect MIA to bounce back tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Miami Heat (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Card 05/19

NBA - 503 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 504 San Antonio Spurs

Play #1

For this contest I have a small lean w/ OKC mostly because they can surprise the Spurs regarding game plan and rotation. Obviously, without Serge Ibaka, the Spurs are now in a pretty favorable position to advance to the NBA finals. However, for this first game, the Spurs will be guessing too much while OKC can surprise them… will OKC play small ball w/ Durant @PF? or Scott Brooks will ride a traditional 2-big men lineup w/ Collison, Adams and Perkins combining to play more than 30 minutes? Because things haven't been going good for us, I’m passing Sides in here…

The play that I really liked for today is Under FIRST QUARTER because I’m pretty sure that Scott Brooks will go “traditional” (as usual) to start the game w/ Westbrook, Thabo, Durant, Collison/Adams and Perkins and this lineup will stink on the offensive end. On the other end, OKC athleticism on the defensive end (even without Ibaka) will be a new challenge for a Spurs’ offense that is coming from facing the Mavericks and the Blazers – two mediocre defensive teams and so, I expect the Spurs to be a little “rusty” to start the game. Eventually, OKC will shift for a small lineup w/ Durant @PF and the Spurs’ will find their offensive “mojo­” but this won’t matter for us…

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 53 FIRST QUARTER @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/18

NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Indiana Pacers

Play #1 

Considering how inconsistent the Pacers have been in the last three months and the inability of their offense to use their superior size down low, I expect the Heat to advance to the NBA Finals sooner or later.

For this particular G1, there are some factors that made me like the Heat:

For some strange reason, IND’s coach Vogel can’t prepare his players to be ready for the first game of the series. IND was pounded by the Hawks in the first game of this postseason by losing 93-101, and against the Wizards in the last round, the Pacers were outplayed and lost the game 96-102.

The Pacers are supposed to completely dominate the glass against the Heat, but they have been pretty mediocre so far in the postseason in the offensive glass. Eventually, they will made a conscious effort to crash the boards against the Heat but this can lead some easy transition points for MIA.

Obviously on the defensive end, MIA will pack the paint and dare the Pacers to beat them from the outside. Apart from an occasional big game from Paul George, the Pacers outside shooting is far from being consistent while the Pacers simply can’t feed the post @ consistent basis in order to punish MIA’s inferior size on the front.

Besides being the better team right now, MIA is more prepared for this contest and therefore, I’m taking them in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Miami Heat (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/15

NBA - 741 Indiana Pacers @ 742 Washington Wizards

Play #1

NOTE: no detailed write up for today, good luck!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 742 Washington Wizards (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline



NBA - 743 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 744 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #2
NOTE: no detailed write up for today, good luck!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 744 Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/14

NBA - 737 Brooklyn Nets @ 738 Miami Heat

Play #1

We’ve lost w/ the Under in the last game of this series, but I’m back again playing the Under in tonight’s contest as the circumstances really didn’t change for this game.

As usual, last game was a slow paced affair w/ Pace Factor of 82.7 and obviously, both teams were incredible efficient on the offensive end! I’ve watched once again the game today and I couldn’t stop noticed the incredible number of times that both teams hit some tough contested jumpers… I’ve just checked NBA.com/stats… MIA went 23-37 FG (62.2%!!!) in contested shots and even the Nets shot 27-59 FG (45.8%!) in those shots!

Naturally, we can expect a bit of regression from both teams for tonight and therefore, I’m playing the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 737/738 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 739 Portland Trail Blazers @ 740 San Antonio Spurs

Play #2

2 important quotes from POR players after G4 that is important for tonight’s contest:

"We got the tempo we wanted, we wanted to get out and run, easy buckets," Barton told Blazersedge. "That all starts with defense. If we lock up, get stops, we can go out there before their defense is set. They're real good when they're set in the half court, it's tough, they make you keep moving the ball and keep working. They've got good help defense and they stay true to their principles. We wanted to get out and push a little bit. Make them work and keep them on their toes."

"We needed to run at them more," Aldridge said, after scoring 19 points (on 8-for-16 shooting) and grabbing four rebounds. "[In the first three games], we let them run at us and walk back. I thought tonight we made them get back and we ran at them."

Yes… the game plan of the Blazers to defeat the Spurs in this series has been to simply outgun them, which is super weird for me because w/ their superior depth, the Spurs are more equipped to “run and gun” than the Blazers.

The first 2 contests of this series were all fast paced affairs but the last two were even faster, which is a valid confirmation for this POR’s game plan.

The Spurs didn’t look ready to compete in the last game but really, according to NBA.com’s SportVU data, 49 of San Antonio’s 88 field-goal attempts were uncontested (no defender within four feet), and it managed to knock down only 16 of them! I just don’t think that the Spurs will miss so many “good looks” tonight playing at home.

Now that the Blazers have won one game and more importantly, they were able to competitive in the first half, I expect them to be more confident on their abilities.

With both teams wanting to push the pace for different reasons, we can expect this contest to be shootout as my fair line for this contest is 212/124 points!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 739/740 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/14

NBA - 737 Brooklyn Nets @ 738 Miami Heat

Play #1

We’ve lost w/ the Under in the last game of this series, but I’m back again playing the Under in tonight’s contest as the circumstances really didn’t change for this game.

As usual, last game was a slow paced affair w/ Pace Factor of 82.7 and obviously, both teams were incredible efficient on the offensive end! I’ve watched once again the game today and I couldn’t stop noticed the incredible number of times that both teams hit some tough contested jumpers… I’ve just checked NBA.com/stats… MIA went 23-37 FG (62.2%!!!) in contested shots and even the Nets shot 27-59 FG (45.8%!) in those shots!

Naturally, we can expect a bit of regression from both teams for tonight and therefore, I’m playing the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 737/738 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 739 Portland Trail Blazers @ 740 San Antonio Spurs

Play #2

2 important quotes from POR players after G4 that is important for tonight’s contest:

"We got the tempo we wanted, we wanted to get out and run, easy buckets," Barton told Blazersedge. "That all starts with defense. If we lock up, get stops, we can go out there before their defense is set. They're real good when they're set in the half court, it's tough, they make you keep moving the ball and keep working. They've got good help defense and they stay true to their principles. We wanted to get out and push a little bit. Make them work and keep them on their toes."

"We needed to run at them more," Aldridge said, after scoring 19 points (on 8-for-16 shooting) and grabbing four rebounds. "[In the first three games], we let them run at us and walk back. I thought tonight we made them get back and we ran at them."

Yes… the game plan of the Blazers to defeat the Spurs in this series has been to simply outgun them, which is super weird for me because w/ their superior depth, the Spurs are more equipped to “run and gun” than the Blazers.

The first 2 contests of this series were all fast paced affairs but the last two were even faster, which is a valid confirmation for this POR’s game plan.

The Spurs didn’t look ready to compete in the last game but really, according to NBA.com’s SportVU data, 49 of San Antonio’s 88 field-goal attempts were uncontested (no defender within four feet), and it managed to knock down only 16 of them! I just don’t think that the Spurs will miss so many “good looks” tonight playing at home.

Now that the Blazers have won one game and more importantly, they were able to competitive in the first half, I expect them to be more confident on their abilities.

With both teams wanting to push the pace for different reasons, we can expect this contest to be shootout as my fair line for this contest is 212/124 points!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 739/740 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/14

NBA - 737 Brooklyn Nets @ 738 Miami Heat

Play #1

We’ve lost w/ the Under in the last game of this series, but I’m back again playing the Under in tonight’s contest as the circumstances really didn’t change for this game.

As usual, last game was a slow paced affair w/ Pace Factor of 82.7 and obviously, both teams were incredible efficient on the offensive end! I’ve watched once again the game today and I couldn’t stop noticed the incredible number of times that both teams hit some tough contested jumpers… I’ve just checked NBA.com/stats… MIA went 23-37 FG (62.2%!!!) in contested shots and even the Nets shot 27-59 FG (45.8%!) in those shots!

Naturally, we can expect a bit of regression from both teams for tonight and therefore, I’m playing the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 737/738 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 739 Portland Trail Blazers @ 740 San Antonio Spurs

Play #2

2 important quotes from POR players after G4 that is important for tonight’s contest:

"We got the tempo we wanted, we wanted to get out and run, easy buckets," Barton told Blazersedge. "That all starts with defense. If we lock up, get stops, we can go out there before their defense is set. They're real good when they're set in the half court, it's tough, they make you keep moving the ball and keep working. They've got good help defense and they stay true to their principles. We wanted to get out and push a little bit. Make them work and keep them on their toes."

"We needed to run at them more," Aldridge said, after scoring 19 points (on 8-for-16 shooting) and grabbing four rebounds. "[In the first three games], we let them run at us and walk back. I thought tonight we made them get back and we ran at them."

Yes… the game plan of the Blazers to defeat the Spurs in this series has been to simply outgun them, which is super weird for me because w/ their superior depth, the Spurs are more equipped to “run and gun” than the Blazers.

The first 2 contests of this series were all fast paced affairs but the last two were even faster, which is a valid confirmation for this POR’s game plan.

The Spurs didn’t look ready to compete in the last game but really, according to NBA.com’s SportVU data, 49 of San Antonio’s 88 field-goal attempts were uncontested (no defender within four feet), and it managed to knock down only 16 of them! I just don’t think that the Spurs will miss so many “good looks” tonight playing at home.

Now that the Blazers have won one game and more importantly, they were able to competitive in the first half, I expect them to be more confident on their abilities.

With both teams wanting to push the pace for different reasons, we can expect this contest to be shootout as my fair line for this contest is 212/124 points!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 739/740 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 05/04: Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat

Brooklyn  at Miami

NBA - 737 Brooklyn Nets @ 738 Miami Heat Play #1 We’ve lost w/ the Under in the last game of this series, but I’m back again playing the Under in tonight’s contest as the circumstances really didn’t change for this game. As usual, last game was a slow paced affair w/ Pace Factor of 82.7 and obviously, both teams were incredible efficient on the offensive end! I’ve watched once again the game today and I couldn’t stop noticed the incredible number of times that both teams hit some tough contested jumpers… I’ve just checked NBA.com/stats… MIA went 23-37 FG (62.2%!!!) in contested shots and even the Nets shot 27-59 FG (45.8%!) in those shots! Naturally, we can expect a bit of regression from both teams for tonight and therefore, I’m playing the Under in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 737/738 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 05/13: Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

LA Clippers  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 735 Los Angeles Clippers @ 736 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #3 On my write up w/ OKC+5.5 in the last game I’ve said the following: “The first 2 games of this series were basically one sided affairs but G3 was a tight contest w/ the score being 108-107 w/ just 2:32 to go! Both teams could have won the game and I really think that this will be the case for today and so, this 5-pts is just too much! I would be saying the same if the game was @ OKC and OKC was favored by 5 points!” It is pretty curious that rallied back and won G3 behind a small ball lineup w/ Kevin Durant being the Power Forward and in the last game, the reverse happened w/ LAC as they played a 3-guards lineup in the 4th quarter and they completely crushed OKC by 14 points in the final frame. For tonight’s contest, both teams will be prepared for any kind of small ball version from their opponents, so IMO, this won’t be a big factor – it’s hard to imagine CP3 once again defending Durant in crunch time! Nevertheless, we have a clear coaching edge for LAC w/ Doc Rivers vs. Scott Brooks. After having 26 assists in G3, OKC reverted to being… “OKC” w/ just 17 assists and a lot of ISO stuff in their offense. I understand that OKC dominated G3 since the start but the Clippers were missing way too many good looks early on the game! Via NBA.com/stats, OKC shot 52.6% on uncontested shots (20-38 FG) while LAC shot just 41.5% (17-41%) and still, LAC won the game! My fair line for this contest is OKC by 2/3 points and therefore, I’m taking the Clippers tonight as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735 Los Angeles Clippers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 05/13: Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers

Washington  at Indiana

NBA - 733 Washington Wizards @ 734 Indiana Pacers Play #1 & #2 We are dealing w/ a “different” Pacers’ team now that Roy Hibbert is playing major minutes and more importantly, he’s confident and helping the team in both ends of the floor. IND’s offense is still having some natural problems to hit their outside shots and generate good looks off good ball movement. They had the nice mark of 10-22 (45.5%) from 3pts but note that Paul George went 7-10 3pts vs. 3-12 from the rest of the team. However, the biggest impact has been made in defense & rebounding! After dominating the glass in the first 3 games of the series w/ 61%, 56.7% & 55.3% reb/rate%, the Wizards were outrebounded in the last game as IND had 52.6% reb/rate%! Also, despite scoring 44 points in the paint in G4, the Wizards went only 17-33 FG (just 51.5%!)! Hibbert’s presence down low has been huge for IND’s perimeter players… after hitting 10-16 from 3pts in G1, the Wizards are hitting 14-52 – 27% clip in L3 games! The Wizards were able to score 55 points in the first half of G4 mostly because of the “work” of their veteran 2nd unit w/ Miller, Gooden and Harrington. After Washington shot 54 percent in the first half, helped by 18 fast break points, they shot just 35 percent in the second half with zero fast break points. The problem is that the Wizards just won’t defeat the Pacers by giving big minutes to those players! WAS’s starting lineup is clearly lacking the proper confidence on the offensive end vs. IND’s elite defense. John Wall is hesitating while Nene + Gortat have been clearly outplayed by West + Hibbert! I expect the Pacers to close out the series tonight via their defensive dominance. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 733/734 Under 181.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 734 Indiana Pacers (-5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/12

NBA - 729 Miami Heat @ 730 Brooklyn Nets

Play #1

I’ll just keep playing the Under in this series as the games have been played @ incredible slow pace. G1=82.3, G2=79.7 & G3=81.4! As I’ve said for example in the my detailed write up of the last game, in such slow pace games, both teams would have to be super efficient on the offensive end in order for the game to be a shootout.

While the Heat had some respectable shooting numbers w/ 46% from the field and 20-25 from FT line, the Nets simply killed the Heat from outside w/ an awesome mark of 15-25 3pts!

Regarding the adjustments…

The Nets have been doing a solid job w/ their interior defense as after allowing 52 points in the paint in the first game of the series, they have allowed just 34 & 26 in L2 games!

Obviously, I expect MIA to be more focused vs. BKN’s outside shooters especially when Teletovic is on the court and also, it’s tough for a team to repeat such great offensive numbers from outside – after all, the Nets went 32-92 (35%) from 3pts in the previous 4 games of the playoffs.

My fair line for this contest is 182/184 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 729/730 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Card 05/11

NBA - 725 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 726 Los Angeles Clippers 

Play #1 & #2 

The first 2 games of this series were basically one sided affairs but G3 was a tight contest w/ the score being 108-107 w/ just 2:32 to go! Both teams could have won the game and I really think that this will be the case for today and so, this 5-pts is just too much! I would be saying the same if the game was @ OKC and OKC was favored by 5 points!

OKC’s offense is now playing at their best w/ great offensive flow! Note that they had 26 assists in the last game – by far their best mark in the playoffs! We are not talking about the usual OKC stuff w/ Durant & Westbrook dominating the ball -> Durant and Westbrook combined for 59 shots but Ibaka, Butler and Jackson combined for 48. Ibaka had 20 points on 9-10 shooting, Butler popped in 14 points which included three 3s and Jackson found his tempo attacking the basket adding 14 points on 5-8 shooting.

This kind of balance for OKC makes them almost impossible to defend! Finally, OKC’s coach Scott Brooks was great as well by playing some small ball @ 4th quarter w/ Durant @ PF!

On the other end, Blake Griffin keeps torching LAC’s interior defense while CP3 is also dominating as well. Eventually, LAC will improve a bit their outside shooting for today as they connected just 7-26 from 3pts in the last game w/ Reddick, Crawford and Barnes combining 3-15 3pts!

I expect both teams to have some substantial edge w/ their offenses w/ this game being a close battle, therefore, I’m taking the OVER & OKC in here! 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725 Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725/726 Over 214.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 727 Indiana Pacers @ 728 Washington Wizards 

Play #3 & #4

The Pacers’ finally showed some signs of life in this playoffs, as their “defense” has been the biggest factor for them – Roy Hibbert playing +30minutes certainly has helped the cause.

Nevertheless, here are some factors that I think will favor the Pacers in here:

The Wizards are completely dominating the glass so far in the series w/ 60.9%, 56.7% and 55.3% reb/rate%! In a potential scenario where both teams are shooting +/- the same numbers, this will be a huge factor for WAS!

Despite playing w/ Hibbert some major minutes, the Pacers haven’t been able to dominate down low. Note that they have scored just 26 points in the paint in the last game as they attempted only 21 shots near the basket vs. 28 from the Wizards! This is not a recipe for success for them and easily they will be shut down by WAS’s defense!

The X factor for today’s game is obviously related w/ WAS’s offense! 63 points is just ridiculous! While the Pacers went 18-39 FG in uncontested shots, the Wizards shot just 12-40 (30% FG) w/ Nene & Beal combining to hit 3-19 FG (remember, we are talking about uncontested shots!)!

I expect the Wizards’ to bounce back today via their offense because defensively, they are doing a good job vs. IND.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 728 Washington Wizards (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 727/728 Under 180 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Card 05/10

NBA - 721 Miami Heat @ 722 Brooklyn Nets

Play #1 & #2

We’ve won our Top Play w/ Under in G2 of this series and as expected, the game was a really slow paced affair –according to my numbers, it was the second slowest paced game @ postseason so far. Note that the Heat hit 49.3% of their shots, 42% from behind the line and just 8 TO’s and still, they scored “only” 94 points!

I don’t think that the pace factor for tonight’s contest will be that different, because this will be game #7 between these two teams, and all of them were pure half court contests and obviously, both teams would need to be super efficient on the offensive end in order for the game to have a high scoring outcome.

In such half court style, the Nets simply don’t have the weapons to beat the Heat, especially w/ Kevin Garnett being a complete non-factor in this series. The Nets don’t have a proper rim protector in this series! The Heat scored 52 points in the paint in G1 and apparently, the Nets did a better job in G2 as they held the Heat to “just” 34 points in the paint in G2. However note that MIA went 14-18 FG @ the rim in that game (78% mark!).

In both games, the Nets were able to be competitive in the first half but they fell apart later… this is not a mere coincidence… the Heat have an extra gear while the Nets lacks the proper “athleticism” to beat the Heat.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721 Miami Heat (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 723 San Antonio Spurs @ 724 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #3

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** 

The Spurs struggled to defend the Mavericks in the first round until the “game 7” happened…. Since then, the Spurs’ defense has been in pure elite mode w/ Def. Rtg’s of 101.5, 94.3 and 101.5!

They are doing a great job against the Blazers in this series and honestly, I don’t expect the Blazers suddenly to figure out a way to crush the Spurs’ defense…

I do expect the Blazers to be more competitive tonight, but this will happen via their defense! For some strange reason, in the first 2 games of this series, the Blazers “tried” to run w/ the Spurs and they literally, they got crushed in both games even before half time. POR doesn’t have the depth to run vs. SAS! For tonight, it looks like Mo Williams will miss the game and so, POR will be without their “6th man”…Earl Watson will play and the trade off is quite evident between these two players: better defense vs. worst defense.

In my opinion, POR’s coach Stotts will be forced to change the approach of his team especially w/ so little depth coming off the bench. I expect the Blazers to intentionally slow down things and establish LMA down low while defensively; they’ll try to put SAS’s offense @ half court because so far, SAS has scored 33 fast break points vs. 17 from the Blazer!

My fair line for this contest is 202 points and therefore, we have the proper edge to make a Top Play w/ the Under in here!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 05/10: Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets

Miami  at Brooklyn

NBA - 721 Miami Heat @ 722 Brooklyn Nets Play #1 & #2 We’ve won our Top Play w/ Under in G2 of this series and as expected, the game was a really slow paced affair –according to my numbers, it was the second slowest paced game @ postseason so far. Note that the Heat hit 49.3% of their shots, 42% from behind the line and just 8 TO’s and still, they scored “only” 94 points! I don’t think that the pace factor for tonight’s contest will be that different, because this will be game #7 between these two teams, and all of them were pure half court contests and obviously, both teams would need to be super efficient on the offensive end in order for the game to have a high scoring outcome. In such half court style, the Nets simply don’t have the weapons to beat the Heat, especially w/ Kevin Garnett being a complete non-factor in this series. The Nets don’t have a proper rim protector in this series! The Heat scored 52 points in the paint in G1 and apparently, the Nets did a better job in G2 as they held the Heat to “just” 34 points in the paint in G2. However note that MIA went 14-18 FG @ the rim in that game (78% mark!). In both games, the Nets were able to be competitive in the first half but they fell apart later… this is not a mere coincidence… the Heat have an extra gear while the Nets lacks the proper “athleticism” to beat the Heat. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721 Miami Heat (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/09

NBA - 717 Indiana Pacers @ 718 Washington Wizards

Play #1 & #2

I’ve watched this afternoon the second game of this series, and it looked to me that the “best version” of this Pacers’ team right now barely defeated the Wizards who missed several good looking outside shots.

Roy Hibbert finally had a good game and his presence in both ends of the floor was well noticed. Also, the pace of the game was way slower vs. G1 (81.4 vs. 84.8)! This is something that I expect to carry on for tonight’s game as surely, Hibbert will play +30 minutes.

IND’s offense despite Hibbert’s great overall play, still struggled to be consistent. WAS’s defense is doing a solid job. The biggest difference for tonight will be WAS’s offense as I expect them to be more solid from the outside. It’s a fact that IND’s inside defense is way better w/ Hibbert logging major minutes but on the outside, the Wizards keeps generating good looks and so, I expect them to be more consistent by playing at home today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Under 184 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 718 Washington Wizards (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 05/09

NBA 2013-14 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 440-368-13 ATS | +140.1 units

NBA 2013-14 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 440-368-13 ATS | +65.3 units

NBA 2013-14 PLAYOFFS  RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 29-27-0 ATS | +0.6 units

NBA 2013-14 PLAYOFFS  RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 29-27-0 ATS | +2.0 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Under MIA/BKN 192 Double Dime WIN

San Antonio (-6.5) WIN

Daily Message: 

We swept the board once again last night by going 2-0 ATS in our NBA Plays. We really needed to bounce back after a bad stretch @ the end of the first round of the NBA Playoffs in which we had some really bad beats w/ Under’s in games that went to OT. We are now 6-0-1 ATS in the last 3 days, so that’s a good sign…

Moving on for today, we have 2 games to work and I’m yet to release a play. Actually, as the time I’m writing the Daily Message, I’m watching OKC vs. LAC G2 in order to prepare tonight’s H2H! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 05/09

NBA - 713 Brooklyn Nets @ 714 Miami Heat

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

As expected, the first game of this series was a pure half court slow paced style, and this is why our play w/ Under 193 got pushed even though the Heat connected 57% of their shots and the Nets hit 47% of their shots. W/ this kind of offensive efficiency, our Under play was supposed to be doomed but that was not the case.

Obviously, I expect the tempo of tonight’s game to be quite similar as really all the first 5 H2H games (4 reg. season + 1 playoff) were all pure half court affairs. The biggest difference is that I don’t expect both teams to be super sharp offensively in here, especially the Heat.

The biggest story of G1 was how the Heat scored so easily near the basket: the Heat scored 52 of their 107 points in the paint. Miami took 35 shots in close and converted nearly 69 percent of those tries. Almost 50 percent of the Heat's shots came from inside the restricted area!

We can expect some defensive adjustments from BKN tonight (from Deron Williams):

"We gave up too many layups and too many paint touches," he reaffirmed about his team's Game 1 107-86 loss, watching a shot swish through as his players warmed up. "So we got to give a better game in Game 2 if we want any chance to win that game."

My fair line for this contest is 186/188 points and so, we have the proper edge to make a Top Play w/ the Under in G2 of this series!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 715 Portland Trail Blazers @ 716 San Antonio Spurs

Play #2 

The Spurs really turned a page in their game 7 against the Mavericks… their dominance against the Blazers in both ends of the floor in G1 of the series was simply a continuation of their awesome “momentum” and flow from one series to the other one and I really don’t think that this won’t change for tonight.

 SAS defense was focused in slowing down POR’s shooters and they did a great job as POR hit 4-16 from 3pts. Obviously, by dealing w/ LMA 1*1, Aldridge will have some good offensive numbers (he had 12-25 FG for 32 points), but still, that game plan worked great for the Spurs.

On the other end, Tony Parker just killed Damian Lillard w/ 13-24 FG for 33 points & 9 assists. Eventually, I expect POR to change Parker’s defensive assignment but this will free up SAS’s shooters! Note that SAS is hitting 32-72 (44.4%) from 3pts in L4 games in these playoffs!

My fair line for this contest is SAS-9/-10 points and therefore, I’m taking the Spurs in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker