Projected Line: Denver by 1 point
Houston continues to struggle, as even on their last game at Charlotte, they were down big at half time and only a choke job from the Bobcats allowed Houston to win the game. The Rockets's offensive struggles are normal, as the league is getting used to their styles and some of their players are struggling, especially Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, who can't dominate the boards on his own anymore. Unfortunately for Houston, Denver is a team that is built to dominate teams like the Rockets.
We all know that Houston has a fast paced offense and that they are very dependent from what they can do on pick and rolls with James Harden, where they are a top team, and the fact that they have nine numbers on transitions as well. These two areas are also the two plays where the Houston has the highest volume of their shots. The problem for them tonight is that Denver is also a run and gun team, but they are #5 on pick and roll ball handler defense and also #5 on transition defense! The strongest part of Denver's defense is also the strongest part of Houston's offense, so the Rockets won't have any mismatch on offense tonight. It's also important to note that Andre Iguodala will be defending James Harden, so the Rockets's superstar will have a tough task on this game. Houston is also very turnover prone and they are #30 in the league in TO/rate with 16.4%! On a game like tonight's, this can become a huge problem for the Rockets.
Unlike Denver, Houston doesn't have a good transition defense, as they are just #28 on the league, while allowing 1.22 PPP! They have been struggling on defending pick and rolls and Ty Lawson will also have a big edge on his matchup against Jeremy Lin. Denver will also have a super edge on the second unit, as Corey Brewer and Wilson Chandler are playing well and Denver has now a good bench that in a potential run and gun game will be important, especially in comparison to Houston's lack of depth.
On the last game between these two teams, Denver won at Houston on a potential tough spot, as they were on a back to back spot, while Houston had three days off to prepare for that game. For tonight, we have Denver having two days of rest prior to this contest, while Houston had just one day off and they are coming home from a long road trip. I see Denver as the most likely winner of this game and so, I'll take them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Denver Nuggets (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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